So yesterday couldn't have gone better for me as I called the first three games correctly.
You get 1 pt per game in Pigskin Pickem. That total runs at the bottom next to the game and exact score space left for tie breaks.
1.
Min (2.5) @ Det: not the easiest call with Detroit at home and needing the win, but I had it a 1 pt Detroit edge and that wasn't a cover, so I let it make the coin toss for me. 1-0
2.
SD @ Dal (.5): not a tough pick for me with Dallas absent its running game. Iiked SD (yes, I know) by a fg, 25-22. 2-0
3.
Gia @ Was (7.5): right at the outside of my prediction. I had Washington 28-20, so a lower score than I thought, but about right as the line went.
3-0
Now let's take a peek at Sunday's games.
4. TB @ Atl (8.5): The Bucs are on the road where they're 1-4. I don't believe they've upset the line yet on the road. The Vikings and Saints will come calling in the next couple so the lately resurgent birds will need to put this one in the W column. I like Atlanta between 8.5 and 10 as the most likely, say 26-17 and a cover.
Atlanta did an even better job of covering the spread, beating my 9 estimate by four, but in any event,
4-0
5. Buf @ KC (9.5): Why so large a number for the struggling Chiefs? Well, on the road the Bills are another 1-4 team. Even the Jets put up 34 on these guys on the road, so the only question is can KC find their offense in time to take advantage of a much needed turn around win. This is still the team that beat the Pats and Philly. Well, nearly. While it's almost always fashionable to blame Smith as the bad performance penny, with the exception of the Giants loss he's been great. Hunt has been productive in yds per, but hasn't found the end zone since week 3 and the Chiefs defense is giving up 3rd and long, as in more than half the time opponents have been converting on them. That puts them...32nd in the league.
The main problem here is that the Bucs live by the pass and KC is awful of late at slowing that down, making the big line harder to justify. The Bucs are even worse against the pass though and Alex knows how to light up a bad defense...man. I know the Chiefs will win this one, but I'm having a hard time with that big a spread. I'm going to like the Chiefs, but in a closer game. Call it 28-24.
And it was closer than the spread, though KC surprised me by being on the losing side of it.
5-0
6. Chi @ Phi (13.5): another game, another huge line. I've ridden the Philly train to glory every week. I'm not stopping now. The Bears field a top 12 defense in terms of balance against the run and pass, but get in the red zone and they drop to a middle of the pack team. Philly will get in that zone. A big line, but I'll take it.
As predicted, Philly had no trouble covering the line.
6-0
7. Cle @ Cin (8.5): a week of mismatches late, a line prognosticator's nightmare because, yeah, huge spreads to cover. But at home? Maybe. They beat Cleveland by a lot more than that early and away. Okay. I'll bite. Bengals 24-12
Okay, so it was 30-16,
7-0
8. Ten (3.5) @ Ind: is it bad that the half point makes me nervous? Probably. Most likely outcome here is around a five pt margin for Ten. But the Titans have come away with a loss 9 out of 9 times in Lucas Field. They struggled to beat the Bengals at home...Mariota threw a host of picks. This would be a great time to take advantage and turn that streak. Why not?
Why not indeed.
8-0
9. Mia @ NE (16.5): ah, come on man...sure. I hate this week. I'll take the Pats. Miami is playing a back up and the Pats just pounded a better team by more. Unless they coast this should be a nasty one. Say 38-10. A good test for Miami's middling pass defense.
Tom came, Tom saw, Tom made the spread.
9-0
10. Car (4.5) @ Jets: hey, a normal looking game. The only thing that makes me nervous about an outmatched Jets is that they have a nasty tendency to win and lose close. I'll take the Panthers on a hunch.
A good hunch, as it turns out.
10-0
11. Sea (6.5) @ SF: a disappointing home loss sets up the road trip to SF. The Niners can't stop the run and aren't a lot better with the pass. I like the Hawks chances here by closer to ten.
It was 11. And speaking of eleven:
11-0
12. Den @ Oak (5.5): who saw this loss fest at the beginning of the year? I guess Denver has done its job to make the case that Manning was worth a lot more than just mechanics. Oakland continues to squander talent. They lost by 6 in Denver and couldn't do anything against NE last week. It was a 3 pt win against the visiting Dolphins, for Pete's sake. So either they're due to break out of the home slump and take advantage or the wheels come off against a still game defense. And by game I mean stinking, because that former SB unit is 28th in pts allowed. I hate this one for different reasons, but I'm going to call it a closer game and hope the Raiders don't suddenly remember what they're capable of.
Well, nobody's perfect.
11-1 :mmph:
13. NO @ Rams (2.5): a nervous road line tells me the money is worried that NO won't travel and the Rams will take a revenge game after their embarrassing loss against the Vikings. The tale of the tape is simple, hold that Rams offense in check and under 20 and you win. The Rams are top ten against the pass, but lower tier against the run, meaning that the scoring should be lower for the Saints and that Ingram and Kamara have to be effective...more so given the Saints starting cornerbacks are beaten up. And that's what decides this for me. The Saints can play balance, but I don't know that they're ready to lean that heavily on the running game and the Rams will take advantage of that secondary.
And so it went.
12-1
14. Jac (4.5) @ Arz: I have no feel for this one. Statistically speaking I have the likely outcome as a Jacksonville win by 5 pts, something on the order of 22-17
I had not feel and the game was won on an improbable late fg to boot. Ah well.
12-2 :mmph:
15. GB @ Pit (13.5): another big line to consider. I certainly think the Steelers are capable, but I'm not going to bite on this one. I'd take ten easy. I might talk myself into 13, but two tds? I'll probably regret going against the money on this one (67/33).
At present the game is tied and my unwillingness to go with that big a spread is looking golden. We'll see how it ends up.
So no worse than 12-2 this week. If GB holds ground that's 13 and Baltimore could give me my best week in a while.
And on a late fg win the Steelers get a W and so do I.
13-2
And on to tomorrow night.
16. Hou @ Bal (6.5): oh what a difference a few weeks make. Too many injuries for Houston to overcome and puts too much pressure on a fumble prone qb. Baltimore.
