NFL 2017

Town Heretic

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
What's on tonight then...

Now we're firmly in the weird part of the schedule, as teams begin to play outside of their norm. Some are clinging to life and others are testing for next year and all of it makes the lines and play dangerous.

1. Den @ Ind: The Broncos come to Indy a 2.5 favorite. What both teams are, largely, is a palpable reminder of Peyton Manning's greatness and what has happened in its absence. 57% of the action is on Denver to take a road win. It should be more one sided when you only consider the talent on hand, but the absence of Bronco offense and Denver being on the road transforms this into a betting trap.

Analysis: looking at yardage

Indy Offense: 31st overall. 29th passing and 20th running the ball.
Indy Defense: 30th overall. 30th at defending the pass and 23rd against the run.

Points scored: 16.3 (30th)
Points allowed: 26.4 (31st)

Conversely, woeful as they are...

Denver offense: 22nd overall. 21st passing and 19th running the ball.
Denver defense: 1st overall. 2nd against the pass and 3rd against the run.

Points scored: 17.6 (26th)
Points allowed: 24.2 (24th)

Looking at Denver may leave some scratching their heads. How can you be 1st in yards allowed, 2nd against the pass and 3rd best against the run and end up less than middling in points allowed? Two answers.

First answer: Special team play. Denver is awful. About as bad as any team in the league. That leads to putting their team in a poor position while gaining no real edge for their offensive play. By compare, Indy has one of the better ST packages (top 10) and both puts their meager offensive output and defensive shortcomings in the best possible context for success...even if they aren't really good enough to capitalize on the effort often.

Second answer: Denver is 0-6 on the road. Denver has given up 3 or 4 tds in each of those losses while scoring fewer than 2 tds in each game on offense. That's just awful.

So the question is, does Denver find its road legs against the weakest road opponent it has faced or does it show us the team we've come to expect at sea level?

Who wins? Take this one either way and feel relatively confident. It's a betting trap. I'll take my Colts on sentiment and the lack of strength of Denver on the road. I have Denver and two. I won't give up the half point. Now let's see if my Colts do.


And that's all you have to do, for every game, if you want to win more often than you lose against the line.
 
Town Heretic

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
tetelestai said:
Who you taking?
Click to expand...
The Pats. You said they were favored by 3 and I thought that was about right. Your Steelers are an uninspiring 46.2% ATS this year. They're playing good ball, but I wouldn't get too excited by Miami. Should be an entertaining game with both teams pulling out the stops. It's essentially a playoff game.
 
Town Heretic

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
tetelestai said:
Hope you're wrong, but if it was my money, I'd take the Pat's also.

I know, but just remember, in the Roethlisberger era, the Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS at home when they are the dog.
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It's close enough (as are so many of this weeks games) the case can be made. On average it should be a New England victory. The Pats haven't lost two in a row since...2015.
 
tetelestai

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Town Heretic said:
Who do you like? KC is a home dog, albeit by a measly 1.5. I took SD, though it's another of those games that you can argue. I have it SD 21, KC 19 or there abouts.
Click to expand...

SD is on a roll, and KC has really fallen apart since their 5-0 start.

So.....who knows......although Phillip Rivers never has won the big games.
 
tetelestai

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Don't know how much longer Antonio Gates is going to be around.

One thing the Steelers have never had was a great Tight End.

IMO, the greatest Tight Ends:

1) Tony Gonzalez
2) Kellen Winslow
3) Antonio Gates
4) Ozzie Newsome
5) Rob Gronkowski
6) Mike Ditka
7) Shannon Sharpe
8) Jason Witten
9) Dave Casper
10) Ben Coates

***Antonio Gates never played college football. He was a star basketball player at Kent State. He was undrafted.
 
tetelestai

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
T minus 7 hours for Patriots vs. Steelers.

I don't play fantasy football, but in looking over some sites this morning, the Steelers/Patriots game has the following for ff:

#1 RB - Le'veon Bell
#1 WR - Antonio Brown
#1 QB - Tom Brady
#1 TE - Rob Gronkowski
#1 K - Stephen Gostkowski

It will also be the first NFL game ever between two teams that have a combined 11 Vince Lombardi trophies.
 
Town Heretic

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
tetelestai said:
Don't know how much longer Antonio Gates is going to be around.

One thing the Steelers have never had was a great Tight End.

IMO, the greatest Tight Ends:

1) Tony Gonzalez
2) Kellen Winslow
3) Antonio Gates
4) Ozzie Newsome
5) Rob Gronkowski
6) Mike Ditka
7) Shannon Sharpe
8) Jason Witten
9) Dave Casper
10) Ben Coates

***Antonio Gates never played college football. He was a star basketball player at Kent State. He was undrafted.
Click to expand...
Good list. Don't undersell Heath Miller though. He's not chopped liver.

I'd put the idiot higher and get ready to recognize he's probably going to top the list before he's done. Sharpe is higher on my list too and Mackey has to be there.

1. Gonzalez
2. Gronk
3. Gates
4. Winslow
5. Sharpe
6. Newsome
7. Mackey
8. Ditka
9. Witten
10. Casper
 
tetelestai

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
That reversal of Jessie James' touchdown was the worst call I ever saw.

He had the ball, his knee hit the ground, then he broke the plane untouched, it's a TD....but no...the ref's reversed it.
 
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