Yes, this game should tell us a lot about the Texans. I am taking them plus the 6.5 points.
So we agree on that one, unless I've gotten take the points mixed up again. I'm thinking they could definitely keep it closer, though a win doesn't seem likely to me.
In another game, the Panthers are weak on their offensive line due to injuries and the Boys might have the best pair of pass-rushers in the business today with the return of Randy Gregory. So it might be a long day for Newton. I will take the Boys and the 3 points.
I've been sweating that one. Again, this week is mostly eye test with me. The long weekend and then Jack was sick and home for a couple. Didn't get to do much with anything until very, very late. Given that there won't be a lot of here's why, numbers and explanations this week. Maybe I'll have more time for that in the next round.
I. Atl @ Phi
(3.5): I liked Philly to look more like last year than the preseason and they didn't disappoint me, though the Falcons look like they're ready to be taken seriously again, which is good news for Atlanta fans.
2. Buf @ Bal (5.5)
: it's 82/18 for the linesmen that Baltimore will cover against a perpetually rebuilding Bills. I agree.
3. Cin @ Ind (3.5)
: and it's 64/36 against the Colts covering. Until I see Luck play a full game looking like himself I'm going with the majority here and like the Bengals by a pt.
4. Pit (6.5) @ Cle
: and I'm a lot less confident than the 58/42 for the cover here. I don't like the division within the Steelers of late and while I know it's Cleveland...Cleveland...man. I'm still going to say this one could be much closer than you'd think and I'll take a flyer on the Dog Pound to gain a moral victory.
5. Ten (1.5) @ Mia
: obviously the line hates both of these teams and with good reason. It's 75/25 for Ten covering and winning. I'm no longer confident in that organization. On the road I'll take Miami and the marginal upset with qb play deciding.
6. SF @ Min(5.5)
: it's 69/31 for a Vikings cover. They got better at qb and were already scary on defense. SF got a lot better with their new golden boy on board, but he's about to face a nightmare, defensively. I have it around 17 - 28 in favor of one of my SB favorites, Minnesota.
7. Hou @ NE (6.5)
: and the split is a modest (for NE) 58/42 for the cover. I can see it going either way, depending on how the Texans travel. Last year with Watson under center the answer was better than you'd think. I'm going to reach with this one and take Houston to keep it to a...let's say 28 -24 loss.
8. TB @ NO (9.5)
: and man is that a big early line. The split is 74/26 in favor of the cover. I can see this one getting brutal. Like 31 - 16 brutal. I'm taking the Saints declaring their bid for another run at the ring.
9. Jac (2.5) @ Gia
: given how poorly the Giants have played of late and how well the Jags have that's a strangely insulting line. The split is 67/33 in agreement. It's possible that Eli wakes up, but I'm weary of waiting on that happening. For me it's more likely a snooze button relay and a cover by the still potent Jags. 23 - 14 or so, maybe.
10. KC @ SD (3.5)
: yes, I know, but the Chargers are SD to me for now. Live with it. I think this is Rivers most dangerous team. KC is loaded with talent but I'm not ready to rest on an unproven rookie who still throws too many "What the heck was he thinking" balls. I'll take SD to cover and keep an eye on, though my rough math has this a toss up/3 pt contest. The split, 50/50, appears in line with that math.
11. Dal @ Car (2.5)
: at full strength this one would make me sweat. The split is 73/27 on the cover. Vegas likes Carolina going away. I'll take them because I'm not sold on the Dallas braintrust or the defense, their last game notwithstanding. I'll take the Panthers in a someone has to win and it's probably the home team pick.
12. Sea @ Den (2.5)
: the split here is 53/47 against Denver making the cover. I get it. Unanswered questions. A defense in Denver that isn't looking like the one that manufactured Peyton's farewell tour and a weak but observable upgrade under center against a team that has a tendency to play well on the road and with something to prove...I'm taking Denver at altitude. 27 - 24 ish in a game that needs the full clock.
13. Was @ Arz (.5)
: Half a point? :chuckle: Now that's the definition of a dog. Another 58/42 split favoring the home cover. I'm curious about this one. Alex is much better than he's given credit for being. I could see the upset here, but the talent level in Washington doesn't inspire me. I'll go with the Cardinals on this one. A healthy Bradford trumps a healthy Smith all things being equal. Washington was a middle of the pack offense without Smith and a weak defense. Arizona fields a top ten defense and should be better on offense.
14. Chi @ GB (8.5)
: I guess Vegas didn't get the memo. The split is, you guessed it, 58/42 for the home cover with that line. I'm going to reach again and say Rodgers needs to get back into the rhythm and the Bears are more improved than you'd think. Closer. Could be scary close. Could be an upset. But all I need is the line, I think. We'll see.
15. Jet @ Det (6.5)
: the split is 71/29 even with that big opening line. I'm going to keep swimming upstream and take the Jests to keep it closer. No particular reason. I just lack faith in the Lions and think the Jets are improved. I'm likely wrong on this one. But it's week one. Where's the fun in playing it safe?
16. Rams (2.5) @ Oak
: Wow. That's a resounding lack of confidence line with the Rams, who should crush Oakland by rights. Until I see what Gruden has left in his tank and without his best defender, I'm going with the prettier girl and taking the Rams.
And that's it for my from the seat of my pants week one. Let the games begin...well, the rest of them at any rate. :think: