NFL 2017

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Besides that, Drew "Mr. Clutch" Pearson abused many NFL teams during his career and he should be in the Hall of Fame.

His stats, including receptions and yards, are much better than those of Lynn Swann who was inducted.

http://lonestarstruck.com/2013/02/t...me-needs-to-open-their-doors-to-drew-pearson/
Stats are his enemy now. An All-Decade player of the 70s, he simply didn't produce numbers that make sense to people who came into their awareness of the sport after it shifted into overdrive and made the offensive side of the game a bit more like pinball. Had more receptions than Warfield or Swann and was cheated of a couple of years by an auto accident.

Only two of 12 players on an all decade team at his position aren't in the Hall. He and Carmichael. And he's the only first team All-Decade wr from the 70s through the 90s who isn't in the Hall.

He belongs.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
They had a pretty darn good RB before him too. But it's still a passing league. If you have a rookie qb, a rb is going to carry a load, but where? Dallas was in a unique position. And even then it ended quickly enough. No, you can find talent to help the air attack in the later rounds at RB.

Here is how Jerome Bettis answered the following question:

How has Ezekiel Elliott changed the perception of running backs in the league?


Bettis: His year does a lot for running backs. It shows running backs are a necessity, are important, are worthy of being a first-round pick, top-5 and we saw again this year as [LSU back Leonard] Fournette went No. 4 and it is a critical position, still very important in the scheme of the offense as having a feature back who can carry the load. That's what Ezekiel Elliott was able to show.
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
Chances are the bottom falls out at any time. Is it possible that he plays another five years? It's possible, but it isn't likely. Fifty? Not going to happen. He looks great? Sure does.
I said all of that.
Time always wins.

Time will beat Tom too, and likely sooner than later.
I said that.
Not going to happen. If he gets through 2 more seasons looking like himself I'll be amazed. It's possible, but unlikely. Fifty? Not possible. Forty five is probably not going to happen even if he doesn't get that life altering hit.
I said that too.
No, I'm saying Joe won every SB he played in. And that he beat the team he won with, beat Young in their only head to head leading a comparatively inferior team. Joe could have another ring or two had SF not decided to take the younger player that gave them a healthier body and a longer run at rings. But he doesn't need them to be the GOAT. What he did before the trade to KC secured that against any challenger so far. His record and rating in the SBs is unmatched. I believe Brady's best game rating beat Joe's worst and that's about it.

Montana ratings by SB, high to low: 147.6, 127.2, 115.2, 100
Brady ratings by SB, high to low: 110.2, 101.1, 100.5, 95.2, 91.1, 86.2, 82.5


What we know is that Joe won two rings without Rice and two with, or as many without. Brady lost his bid with the closest thing he had to Rice playing with him in Moss and lost with a historic best offense in a game where Brady looked so-so.


. . . What I'm saying is that Joe was the better qb by any reasonable litmus. The only way Brady is in the conversation is if you make it all about the number of rings and that only. But then that's like suggesting Bill Russel is the greatest basketball player of all time because he has the most rings.

Bill was great, not doubt. But no one is calling him the GOAT.
I didn't call Brady the GOAT. In fact . . .
Spoiler
Yes but NE won 3 SBs in Brady's first four full seasons. NE wasn't a championship team until Brady, and it was an instant transformation, and now they've won five with him at the helm. And none of that matters, because Joe's stats are better in the championship games. IOW, SF turning around under Joe's quarterbacking/leadership cannot mean as much as NE's transformation does under Brady's, but
Brady's the 4th or fifth best qb ever, and Joe's better than him and always will be.
Spoiler
Brady played 237 games for 456 tds to 152 picks and a career rating of 97.2
Brady played in 34 playoff games for 63 tds and 31 picks, with a playoff rating of 89.1

There's obviously different ways to skin this cat.
Brady's not shabby, but he's not tops, and there's not enough time for him to become tops either
Spoiler
, but still, one of the greatest qbs ever.

:)
Spoiler
How many rings, from how many post-seasons, in how many "valid" seasons played (seasons not somehow invalidated, by injury, or by otherwise not being the starter). X-for-Y-in-Z seasons played. Graham played 10 seasons and 10 championship games, and won 7 quote-unquote rings. So his numbers are 7-for-10-in-10, the gold standard for this particular metric.

Graham 7-for-10-in-10

Bart Starr 5-for-6-in-12 (counting from when Lombardi made him the sole starter)

Montana 4-for-10-in-13 (excl. '86 for injury). With SF, Montana was 4-for-8-in-11 ('86 excluded for injury).

Brady 5-for-14-in-15.

Bradshaw 4-for-9-in-12

Brady's conversion percentage of post-season appearances into championships is significantly behind these other qbs.
In fact, you are the one who has him 2nd best all time, and not me.
Spoiler
Spoiler
An ESPN panel of coaches and execs ranked their top qbs in the post 78 era and their list was interesting.

They panel voted and their votes were indexed across ten ballots. Everyone involved were SB winners during their tenures.

1. Brady: 86 index, highest 1st, lowest 6th
2. Peyton: 80 index, highest 1st, lowest 5th
3. Montana: 78 index, highest 1st, lowest 9th
4. Elway: 66 index, highest 1st, lowest 8th
5. Rodgers: 56 index, highest 3rd, lowest NR
6. Favre: 49 index, highest 4th, lowest NR
T Marino: Highest 3rd, lowest NR
8. Young: 44 index, highest 2nd, lowest NR
9. Brees: 40 index, highest 4, lowest NR
10. Fouts: 22 index, highest 4, lowest NR

Not considered: Bradshaw and a number of stars at the position prior to 78.

If I had to use the list
I'd rank them: Montana, Brady, Peyton, Young, Marino, Rodgers, Brees, Elway, Favre, Fouts.
Spoiler
Spoiler
Beats the stew out of me. I dropped him down in that list. I suspect they were considering what a greatly diminished Elway did with the right team and coaching at the end. But I'm not sure you could have coached him into that play absent the diminishing.

Here's the list again, with
theirs on the left and mine on the right. How would you rank them?

1. Brady------Montana
2. Peyton----Brady
3. Montana--Peyton
Spoiler
Spoiler

4. Elway-----Young
5. Rodgers--Marino
6. Favre------Rodgers
T Marino-----Brees
8. Young-----Elway
9. Brees-----Favre
10. Fouts---Fouts

Anyway, and meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .
to me, you're saying, Yes, the correct answer is that Joe Montana would continue his demonstrated SB-appearance-per-season performance as a starting QB up until hypothetical 45-50 years old, in the hypothetical and more just world where Montana isn't career-fatally injured in his prime. I disagree, and I feel like you're trying to make me the idiot in disagreeing with you.
And I'm telling you that's the homer in you, the part of you that feels that way or believes I'm disparaging a great qb by noting that the popular and media driven sentiment isn't really supported by objective data. He's like Bill, great, but not the GOAT. And you're not an idiot, you're just a fan letting his love for his guy and team overwhelm your objectivity.
I need you to show me where I've lost my objectivity.
Spoiler
. . . I could see where Brady would have won 8 SBs now if certain things went one way or another, but
what happened happened. We have to base it on what happened, not what would-a, could-a, should-a.
Spoiler
IMO anyway. Playing this way, it would be never ending. You'd have to run through everybody's career who is even within shooting distance to be fair.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I said all of that. I said that. I said that too.
I thought you were talking about what Tom might yet add to his resume. Missed you telling me he likely won't. Glad to see us agreeing on the points then. Excellent. And when you even suggest Brady playing to 50 it's not really in keeping with that agreement. Like saying, "But suppose he grows an extra head." It's just not going to happen. No one has ever come close to that, let alone approaching it with anything in the tank that can be taken seriously.

I didn't call Brady the GOAT. In fact . . .
I've largely been addressing the GOAT myth that goes hand in hand with the media driven need for a "great one" or, better yet, "GOAT" to be playing now and looking at the reality of the player and that golden aura that was crafted by ESPN.

In fact, you are the one who has him 2nd best all time, and not me.
In fairness I was taking the list as presented and reordering it while noting other great qbs were off the board of that consideration because of the time cut-off. I've never said Brady is the second best qb of all time. I've largely considered him the second best of his generation, until recently. He's gained for me the way Jabbar's extended greatness gained for him with me.

What I've actually said is that I think he and Peyton are a push, that Brees could be a serious competitor for his generation as well. Green Bay has a qb who might be as good as either and none of them are the GOAT.

And while you once put Montana solidly in the lead more recently in our exchange you said you'd take Brady now over Montana in his prime.

So who are you suggesting you'd take ahead of Brady again?


Anyway, and meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .I need you to show me where I've lost my objectivity.
It would help if you wouldn't wait this long between postings. I consider and post as I come to a thing. You wait a week or better and it's a cold trail. I recall you repeatedly stating I was disparaging Brady, which is a peculiar charge from someone who thinks I hold him at number two on my all time list. And I think your Brady at 40 over Joe in his prime is a prime example of homerism over logic, given you also say you don't actually expect Brady to miss that wall sooner than later (and who knows, it could be this year) to name a couple of points.

Both of those positions are incongruous at worst and strained at best.

So who is on your list, 1-10?
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
The NFL has suspended Dallas Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott. Columbus PD didn't charge him after seeing her texts asking friends to lie. The NFL doesn't seem to know right from wrong. Murderer Ray Lewis is allowed to make money as a studio analyst.

And Zeke needs to wake up and not hang around people that will get you in trouble.

The suspension is specifically for the domestic violence that didn't happen. It is 6 games, pending appeal.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Elliott’s representatives suggested that maybe she was in a fight with another woman and the bruises, for example a bruise to her eye, and perhaps other bruises on her body, were sustained in that altercation. The NFL’s investigators talked to people who witnessed that altercation and it was revealed that neither woman landed a punch on the other, they pulled each other’s hair but they never hit each other with a balled-up fist or in any other way.

At least there is evidence that she had a fight with someone else. Where is the evidence that Zeke hit her?
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Elliott’s representatives suggested that maybe she was in a fight with another woman and the bruises, for example a bruise to her eye, and perhaps other bruises on her body, were sustained in that altercation. The NFL’s investigators talked to people who witnessed that altercation and it was revealed that neither woman landed a punch on the other, they pulled each other’s hair but they never hit each other with a balled-up fist or in any other way.

At least there is evidence that she had a fight with someone else. Where is the evidence that Zeke hit her?

Like "hands up, don't shoot", it didn't happen. Her text messages prove it. She asked her fried to lie and say Elliot pulled her from the car.

The NFL knows this.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
They said it didn't factor, but you can't convince me that his conduct during St. Patrick's Day didn't factor into his credibility with denials on the point of a sexually charged accusation. I remember at the time thinking, "What sort of man feels free to expose a woman the way he did?" And the answer is a man who doesn't respect women and sees them as an extension of his ongoing self-gratification. That man is a time bomb. If he doesn't mature it's going to get worse.

Looks like it got worse.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
I remember at the time thinking, "What sort of man feels free to expose a woman the way he did?"

Ask Hillary.

billsurprise-696x392.jpg


Dallas is out right now, unless the suspension is reduced greatly, to 2 games.
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
I thought you were talking about what Tom might yet add to his resume. Missed you telling me he likely won't. Glad to see us agreeing on the points then. Excellent. And when you even suggest Brady playing to 50 it's not really in keeping with that agreement. Like saying, "But suppose he grows an extra head." It's just not going to happen. No one has ever come close to that, let alone approaching it with anything in the tank that can be taken seriously.


I've largely been addressing the GOAT myth that goes hand in hand with the media driven need for a "great one"
Do you believe that Gretsky is "the great one?" It's off- and on-topic. Like your frequently mentioning athletes in other sports implicitly suggesting the implied claim of a strong analogy is valid, between great players of other sports, and any correlation between them and hardware/rings.
or, better yet, "GOAT" to be playing now and looking at the reality of the player and that golden aura that was crafted by ESPN.


In fairness I was taking the list as presented and reordering it while noting other great qbs were off the board of that consideration because of the time cut-off. I've never said Brady is the second best qb of all time. I've largely considered him the second best of his generation, until recently. He's gained for me the way Jabbar's extended greatness gained for him with me.

What I've actually said is that I think he and Peyton are a push, that Brees could be a serious competitor for his generation as well. Green Bay has a qb who might be as good as either and none of them are the GOAT.

And while you once put Montana solidly in the lead more recently in our exchange you said you'd take Brady now over Montana in his prime.

So who are you suggesting you'd take ahead of Brady again?
Graham's the GOAT. With the NFL, getting longer in the tooth than the AAFC ever did, the question is posed because now we have seen a number of Graham-type performances of utter dominance by quarterbacks, that we have to wonder, who was/is the best ever at the position? QBs influence the games'/'s outcomes more than any other single player. It's a natural question.

And Graham is the only obvious choice, because Graham led his team to so many championship games, firstly, and that Graham won so many of them, more than anybody else. The game has changed in many ways, like baseball, but also like baseball, the fundamental conflict of a football game has not changed . . . since the advent of the forward pass. Graham dominated the conflict, between the offense and the defense, two armies clashing directly with each other dozens of times per game, where the forward pass is a possibility.

Calling Graham the GOAT is like calling the Beatles, or Elvis the GOAT. They are the GOATs because they were first. They discovered/invented the species, like Gretsky did. They were the firsts, to do any number of both strategic and tactical things, now taken for granted, for their ubiquity.

To make the case for anybody else would involve some sort of "Madden" like video game imagination, and nobody can argue something like that firmly. Graham knew how to win championships, and Plan A is to first get to the championship, and that, Graham did each season of his career, and Plan B is to win the championship game, and Graham did that more than anybody else to play the position.
It would help if you wouldn't wait this long between postings. I consider and post as I come to a thing. You wait a week or better and it's a cold trail. I recall you repeatedly stating I was disparaging Brady, which is a peculiar charge from someone who thinks I hold him at number two on my all time list.
I thought so too, and that's why I inquired.
And I think your Brady at 40 over Joe in his prime is a prime example of homerism over logic, given you also say you don't actually expect Brady to miss that wall sooner than later (and who knows, it could be this year
I specified a whole Brady in my question.
) to name a couple of points.

Both of those positions are incongruous at worst and strained at best.

So who is on your list, 1-10?
The question is, who's going to win the game?

Nick mentioned that if he had to pick a QB for one play, to win the championship being assumed, he'd go with Elway. My question is, one game, not one play.

I know Joe's 4-for-4. And I know that during his whole prime years (what NFL players are truly healthy every game?) he was a 1-to-1-to-1.25-to-1, or a little less than a coin-flip, underdog to win the NFL championship, any given season. I'm assuming that I'd get that Joe. Meanwhile, I could also opt for Brady today, at 40, instead. I assume that he's whole, and that his odds of being injured in the championship game are the same as they are today, which is about 14-to-1 against anything happening at a season-ending severity level or worse. I discount it to ten times more likely, which is about 1-and-a-half-to-1, or 3-to-2 against, or, for EV purposes, this is him playing three-fifths of a game.

Brady's won two of the last three NFL championships, IOW he's on a roll, right now. Odds that Joe will be on a roll? Coin flip, 50% chance, and if he is, then yes you win, but Brady's batting average in SB wins recently is 2-for-3, or 66.6% truncated winning percentage.

The question is who's going to win the game. Is that really "homerism?" Brady literally, just orchestrated the single greatest comeback in the history of the NFL championship game. He's got the hot hand. Why do you think this is unreasonable, illogical, "homerism?"
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Joe Mixon looked pretty good. He looked about as good as you can in a pre-season game. There is still one thing that I think holds them back with all that talent. The conductor. Maybe if he didn't look like a cat they would get over the hump.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Do you believe that Gretsky is "the great one?"
I don't follow the sport strongly enough to have an informed opinion.

It's off- and on-topic. Like your frequently mentioning athletes in other sports implicitly suggesting the implied claim of a strong analogy is valid, between great players of other sports, and any correlation between them and hardware/rings.
I'm pretty sure I just mentioned that in a sport where one individual can have an even greater impact as part of the offensive and defensive production of a team, the greatest winner in that sport's history isn't really in the conversation when it comes to the greatest of all time, even at his position.

Graham's the GOAT. Graham is the only obvious choice, because Graham led his team to so many championship games, firstly, and that Graham won so many of them, more than anybody else.
I'd say he's arguably the greatest of the old guard. But he also didn't have to go through a spate of playoff games to reach the title game for the most part of his run. That's a much shorter and easier season on a number of levels. One more reason to separate the old and new game.

Calling Graham the GOAT is like calling the Beatles, or Elvis the GOAT. They are the GOATs because they were first. They discovered/invented the species, like Gretsky did. They were the firsts, to do any number of both strategic and tactical things, now taken for granted, for their ubiquity.
That' makes them pioneers, not eternal GOATs.

Otto Graham's season ratings were darn good to great. His 12 playoff games? An average of 67.4.

His best was in his 7th playoff appearance, against the Rams, going for nearly 300 yds, 4 td to 1 int and a 122 rating.

He was also awful in the Championship game three years later, going for all of 20 yards, no passing or rushing tds against 2 ints and a goose egg rating in the loss.

In fact, Graham wasn't very good in most of them.

Bad to worse (75 and under): 8 games (66%).
Meh to very good (76 to 88): 2 (16.5%)
Exceptional (90+): 2 (16.5%)

Meaning you were more likely to get a poor performance than either a good or exceptional one, hardware notwithstanding.

Brady, by comparison, was bad to worse in 9 of 34 games (26.5% of the time). Decent to good in 9 (26.5% of the time). Exceptional in 16 (47% of the time).

Montana was bad to worse in 5 out of 23 (21.5%), decent to good in 4 (17%). Exceptional in 14 (60%).

Or, you stand a much better statistical chance of getting an exceptional performance in the big game from Montana, even using the totality of his playoff performances instead of his impossibly great SB record.

The question is, who's going to win the game?
Wasn't my question. I asked for your 1-10. You don't have to, of course, but why wouldn't you? I've answered yours. Montana.

Otherwise, supra. Montana. On any given playoff day he gives you much better odds of the exceptionally great and a win.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
That's an idea, listing each of the top 10 as ranked with their bad to great chance of presenting in playoffs.

Bad to worse (75 and under) from least likely to stink it up to most likely

1. Brees: 1%
2. Rodgers: 12.5%
3. Montana: 21.5 %
4. Brady: 26.5%
5. Favre/Young T
7. Peyton: 33%
8. Elway: 36%
9. Marino: 44%
10. Fouts: 100%* only one on the list with fewer than 10 playoff games.

Now who gives us the best chance of an exceptional performance, best to worst with a minimum of 10 playoff games:

Exceptional (90+):

1. Rodgers: 75%
2. Brees: 73%
3. Montana: 60%
4. Favre: 50%
5. Brady: 47%
6. Young: 43%
7. Peyton/Elway 41%
9. Marino: 33%
10. Fouts: 0% Who put him in this grouping anyway??

Not considered but better than Fouts (Stinker/Exceptional):

Eli Manning: 33% - 42%
Big Ben: 20% - 45%
Wilson: 33% - 67%
Flacco: 33% - 60%

So if you go by SB, it's Montana.
If you want the least likely to give you a stinker, it's Brees, then Rodgers and then Montana.
If you want the most likely to give you a playoff gem it's Rodgers, Brees, then Montana.
If you want really good to exceptional play, it's Brees, Rodgers, Montana.

And Ben R and Wilson would be better bets than Marino and Fouts (who really doesn't belong on the list).

If you take away the two years Peyton shouldn't have been playing he moves up to 5th place in least likely to present a stinker and 6th on the exceptional list.

 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
QB rating. Yards-after-catch YAC is in there, under yardage. The passer gets the ball to the receiver, who then can add yards from there, or not, but all the yards wind up in the QB rating regardless.

Completion-percentage includes poorly thrown passes that receivers catch anyway, and well thrown passes that receivers nonetheless drop.

Interceptions that resulted from tipped balls are in there, as well as when the passer threw it right to the defender but the defender dropped it.

Of these, YAC must be pretty easy to separate from total passing yards, to see how much receivers with exceptional YACs influence their passers' rating.

For the other matters, I don't know how it could be done without watching every pass thrown, and doing something like baseball's balls-and-strikes, but also sometimes passers and receivers simply get the play wrong, and when it's the receiver, that also goes against the passer's rating. I imagine that these things even out over time, but 1) maybe they don't, and 2) game-to-game, we all know these matters vary a lot, influencing wins and losses as well as QB ratings.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
QB rating. Yards-after-catch YAC is in there, under yardage. The passer gets the ball to the receiver, who then can add yards from there, or not, but all the yards wind up in the QB rating regardless.Completion-percentage includes poorly thrown passes that receivers catch anyway, and well thrown passes that receivers nonetheless drop. Interceptions that resulted from tipped balls are in there, as well as when the passer threw it right to the defender but the defender dropped it. Of these, YAC must be pretty easy to separate from total passing yards, to see how much receivers with exceptional YACs influence their passers' rating.

For the other matters, I don't know how it could be done without watching every pass thrown, and doing something like baseball's balls-and-strikes, but also sometimes passers and receivers simply get the play wrong, and when it's the receiver, that also goes against the passer's rating. I imagine that these things even out over time, but 1) maybe they don't, and 2) game-to-game, we all know these matters vary a lot, influencing wins and losses as well as QB ratings.
The great thing about stats is that they are measured the same for everyone. And the qbs most people who've watched and really followed the NFL put in the best of discussion look exactly like that when you pour through those numbers.

I've always thought Brees was underrated even with the level of recognition he does get. The numbers tend to bear that out. How great would he look on a consistently solid team with a real defense? Maybe the way the numbers suggest, the way he played in the one SB he had to play.
 
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