NFL 2016

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Jerry Shugart

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Who is the current Super Bowl champion?

The same team who is no longer the champ of the AFC West Division and is no longer the champ of the AFC. The same team that went 9-7 this year and became the first reigning champion to miss the playoffs since the 2013 Baltimore Ravens.

Does that ring a bell?
 

Jerry Shugart

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Mark Schlereth, former offensive lineman for the Denver Broncos, said this about the possibility of Denver signing Tony Romo:

"Tony Romo would fit there. I think he would give you a better chance to compete for a championship. Will it happen? I don't know. But I certainly believe that John Elway will kick the tires on Tony Romo, and it may have started at that party they were at in D.C."

Schlereth also said this:

"Oh, he'd be a great fit. He'd be a great fit. They need a veteran presence at the quarterback position and, you know, the mantra there in Denver -- and I played there six years -- is: 'Super Bowl or bust, man. We're about winning championships,' and, I would say, is playing Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch really about winning a championship? Maybe getting to the playoffs, but it'd be hard to compete. Look at the championship games this last weekend. ... OK, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch -- tell me what doesn't fit: Aaron Rodgers, [Matt Ryan], Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, you know? Those two don't belong. Out of those six, two of them don't belong."
 

Town Heretic

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Mark Schlereth, former offensive lineman for the Denver Broncos, said this about the possibility of Denver signing Tony Romo:

"Tony Romo would fit there. I think he would give you a better chance to compete for a championship. Will it happen? I don't know. But I certainly believe that John Elway will kick the tires on Tony Romo, and it may have started at that party they were at in D.C."

Schlereth also said this:

"Oh, he'd be a great fit. He'd be a great fit. They need a veteran presence at the quarterback position and, you know, the mantra there in Denver -- and I played there six years -- is: 'Super Bowl or bust, man. We're about winning championships,' and, I would say, is playing Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch really about winning a championship? Maybe getting to the playoffs, but it'd be hard to compete. Look at the championship games this last weekend. ... OK, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch -- tell me what doesn't fit: Aaron Rodgers, [Matt Ryan], Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, you know? Those two don't belong. Out of those six, two of them don't belong."
It's hard not to see them as near favorites with Romo upright and under center. I don't think he's being fair mixing Paxton in at this juncture. Who knows what they have there? Maybe the Bronco's future...there was a day when you could develop talent at the position. If people still tried that we'd have better play from it.


This is the position of the NE fan base Patriot Nation. We learned it from Tom Brady 15 years ago. Bill Belichick did not teach us this, Tom Brady taught us this.
Tom Brady? That's not how you spell Adam Vinatieri. :plain:
 

Town Heretic

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Last season NE lost in part due to Gostkowski missing a kick, but in larger part because Brady threw two picks in that game. Plain.
I think Brady was good, not great, when he got the first couple of three rings that established the talking heads narrative of the next Joe Montana. I do believe he grew into a truly great qb and he'd be in the discussion with me of all time, top tier greats. But he took two all time offenses into SBs and lost. . .

My inclination is to say the real difference in New England is his coach. Tom, properly utilized, is a killer. But his back ups looked pretty potent too, until they left Bill's system. A lot of good players have rings because of that coach. How many HOFers will come from that dynasty?
 

Town Heretic

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Let's talk about dynasty in 20-30 years. 'Too early to tell. Right now there are Kraft, Belichick and Brady. Once they're all long gone, then we'll see what happens to this organization. :idunno:
What's your definition?

There have been great teams for a year or two, like the SB Bears or Giants, but consistent post season success within a decade with a ring or two to show for it seems to be the calling card. For me it's:

60s: Green Bay, with three championships, Bart Starr and "the coach".
70s: The Steelers. Four rings.
80s: SF and four.
90s: Dallas with three.
2000 to 20010: New England. Three rings and four appearances in the SB.
 

Nihilo

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What's your definition?
Between dynasties and "good runs." All the ones you've mentioned are good runs. The Steelers are the closest thing the NFL has right now. It's not a bad thing by any means. Who wants to relive the 20th century MLB Yankees or NHL Canadiens? Everybody likes to feel like they've got a chance.
 

Town Heretic

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Between dynasties and "good runs." All the ones you've mentioned are good runs. The Steelers are the closest thing the NFL has right now. It's not a bad thing by any means. Who wants to relive the 20th century MLB Yankees or NHL Canadiens? Everybody likes to feel like they've got a chance.
I think you have to consider the NFL within a shorter context. Most do, which is why the Steelers are considered a dynasty by the people who frame the discussion often as not. It's different than baseball on a number of levels. Even different than basketball.

The NFL is just not set up for teams to manage more than preeminence in a decade. New England's approach to moving it to two since 2000 is as close as anyone has come in the modern era. Shorter term animals to my mind. A good run is Miami in the early 70s or Washington in the 80s. If you dominate a decade in the NFL you're as close to the larger understanding of a dynasty as you're going to get. Now about the Bills and Vikings teams...star crossed dynasties of teams that couldn't quite make it over the one hump that ultimately defines it?
 

Nihilo

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I think you have to consider the NFL within a shorter context.
But that degrades the meaning of dynasty to "a good run," which is distinguished from a dynasty. I agree with you that in a stricter sense, there is no dynasty in the NFL, and for the time being, because of the reasons you cite, it looks like there never will be. Unless Kraft can do something that makes NE's recent success a continuing perennial thing. But like I said, I don't think it's a bad thing to not have a dynasty in the equation, because everyone always wants to feel like they've got a chance.
Most do, which is why the Steelers are considered a dynasty by the people who frame the discussion often as not. It's different than baseball on a number of levels. Even different than basketball.

The NFL is just not set up for teams to manage more than preeminence in a decade. New England's approach to moving it to two since 2000 is as close as anyone has come in the modern era. Shorter term animals to my mind. A good run is Miami in the early 70s or Washington in the 80s. If you dominate a decade in the NFL you're as close to the larger understanding of a dynasty as you're going to get. Now about the Bills and Vikings teams...star crossed dynasties of teams that couldn't quite make it over the one hump that ultimately defines it?
That's a question I don't have to answer because even had they won a lot, they still wouldn't have hurdled what's needed to establish a dynasty.

"Almost a good run," is what I'd say.
 

Town Heretic

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But that degrades the meaning of dynasty to "a good run," which is distinguished from a dynasty.
I'd say it distinguishes the use and differences among leagues and sports, though as a baseball fan (if of the long suffering, Tigers variety) and Celtics fan I can appreciate your perspective.

I agree with you that in a stricter sense, there is no dynasty in the NFL, and for the time being, because of the reasons you cite, it looks like there never will be.
It's hard to imagine, without the adjustment. But I really feel it's justified, given the average NFL career is still four years and only qbs and rare others tend to last beyond a decade.

Unless Kraft can do something that makes NE's recent success a continuing perennial thing.
If they win they'll have the strongest team in two consecutive decades. That's pretty compelling.

But like I said, I don't think it's a bad thing to not have a dynasty in the equation, because everyone always wants to feel like they've got a chance. That's a question I don't have to answer because even had they won a lot, they still wouldn't have hurdled what's needed to establish a dynasty.
While you do tend to have a certain number of teams controlling it over generations, there is enough of the punchers chance in non series play to keep the NFL interesting (if less fair and representative) year to year in a way no other sport except boxing can match.

"Almost a good run," is what I'd say.
It's a quandary peculiar to the style and limitations of play, I think. I don't know what to say about it really...which is a rarity. :eek:
 
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Nick M

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Tom Brady? That's not how you spell Adam Vinatieri. :plain:

He probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for that kick. The one after the NFL stuck it to Davis in the worst bout of cheating I have ever seen. I guess it all makes sense now. I didn't equate the fumble to the rest of the cheating.
 

Town Heretic

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He probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for that kick. The one after the NFL stuck it to Davis in the worst bout of cheating I have ever seen. I guess it all makes sense now. I didn't equate the fumble to the rest of the cheating.
If you look at the route to those first three rings...

2001: an overtime win against Oakland moves them toward their first SB win. Adam Vinatiere scores 9 of their 16 pts, including a 45 yard kick to send it into overtime. Brady's rating is 70.4 on the game. They win in spite of his play.

In that SB an interception and 47 yd return sets up the winning margin off Vinatiere's leg. Tom passes for just under 150 yds, 1 td against no picks.

2003: the Pats and Titans are tied going into the 4th quarter. With 4 minutes left Adam makes a 46 yd fg that constitutes the winning margin, allowing NE to advance. Tom's contribution? 1 td and another poor, 73.3 performance. The only reason Tom at that point isn't noted as someone in the early stages of a choke syndrome is that his team plays him out of it. Without Adam you could argue at that point his future doesn't look as bright and people are commenting on the 6th rounder who pushed Bledsoe out only to go one and done twice in the playoffs.

That SB? Adam kicks the winning margin with 4 seconds on the clock from 41 yds out or it's overtime between two well matched teams. That said, Brady is finally terrific, throwing for over 350 yds, 3 td against 1 pick and a 100.5 rating.

2004: Brady has a strong opening round for the first time in his playoff career as the Pats drub the Colts 20 - 3. Peyton is awful in the loss.

In the conference championship New England handles the Steelers comfortably. Brady is tremendously efficient with a 130 rating noting it, while passing for just over 200 yds with 2 td against 0 ints.

In another SB decided by a fg margin, Brady posts another impressive rating rooted more in efficiency than dominance as he goes for 236 yds and 2 tds against no picks resulting in a 110.2 rating.

At that point he has three rings and the resounding praise as an all time great. Without Adam this could have easily been his first ring.

The next two years, 2005 - 2006, they're knocked out by the Broncos and then the Colts.

2007: the Pats bring as dominant an offense as has been seen in terms of production into the SB against the upstart, late run making Giants. Adam is gone. Brady goes for under 300, a decent but only that rating in the low 80s, 1 td against 0 ints and his first loss in the big game.

They fail to make the playoffs in 2008, with Brady out injured, though they go for 11-5 with the back up.2009 and 2010 are one and dones.

2011: Another dominant offensive unit leads to an easy bump of the Broncos in the opening round.

Next up a squeaker of a 3 pt conference championship win against Baltimore. Brady is horrible, 239 yds, 0 tds against 2 ints and a 57.5 rating. Bill and company save him and put them back in the SB.

Brady is much better in this his second SB defeat at the hands of the Giants. He has a very respectable low 90s rating, throwing for 276 yds, 2 tds against 1 int.

2012 and 2013 see them out in the second round.

2014: Brady is terrific in the opening, a tough game against Baltimore.

They destroy the Colts in route to another SB.

A great Pats rally in the 4th quarter, combined with the most perplexing goal line call in SB history on the part of Seattle ends with a Brady sporting his fourth ring. It's his second truly great SB as he goes 328 yds, 4 tds against 1 int and a 101 rating. This is who he was supposed to be...but it could as easily have been his next loss.

2015: A ghostly Peyton summons enough to put them out in the conference championship, giving Peyton an even split, with Tom's last big game win against him a decade earlier.

2016: we're about to find out.

I've always held that Brady developed into one of the best of his or any generation. But an argument could be made that he remains the second best of his era and that he was for a good bit of his career a system qb, with less than stellar marches to and performances in the big game, leading a team that won 11 games with him on the bench and won all of its rings but one by fg margins.

That's why this one is important. If he could have another Seattle like game it would go a long way to covering those Giants debacles and heating up the argument that I suspect will otherwise, over time, look more like an argument for an extremely durable and talented qb playing for the right team and a great coach.
 

Nihilo

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If you look at the route to those first three rings...

2001: an overtime win against Oakland moves them toward their first SB win. Adam Vinatiere scores 9 of their 16 pts, including a 45 yard kick to send it into overtime. Brady's rating is 70.4 on the game. They win in spite of his play.

In that SB an interception and 47 yd return sets up the winning margin off Vinatiere's leg. Tom passes for just under 150 yds, 1 td against no picks.

2003: the Pats and Titans are tied going into the 4th quarter. With 4 minutes left Adam makes a 46 yd fg that constitutes the winning margin, allowing NE to advance. Tom's contribution? 1 td and another poor, 73.3 performance. The only reason Tom at that point isn't noted as someone in the early stages of a choke syndrome is that his team plays him out of it. Without Adam you could argue at that point his future doesn't look as bright and people are commenting on the 6th rounder who pushed Bledsoe out only to go one and done twice in the playoffs.

That SB? Adam kicks the winning margin with 4 seconds on the clock from 41 yds out or it's overtime between two well matched teams. That said, Brady is finally terrific, throwing for over 350 yds, 3 td against 1 pick and a 100.5 rating.

2004: Brady has a strong opening round for the first time in his playoff career as the Pats drub the Colts 20 - 3. Peyton is awful in the loss.

In the conference championship New England handles the Steelers comfortably. Brady is tremendously efficient with a 130 rating noting it, while passing for just over 200 yds with 2 td against 0 ints.

In another SB decided by a fg margin, Brady posts another impressive rating rooted more in efficiency than dominance as he goes for 236 yds and 2 tds against no picks resulting in a 110.2 rating.

At that point he has three rings and the resounding praise as an all time great. Without Adam this could have easily been his first ring.

The next two years, 2005 - 2006, they're knocked out by the Broncos and then the Colts.

2007: the Pats bring as dominant an offense as has been seen in terms of production into the SB against the upstart, late run making Giants. Adam is gone. Brady goes for under 300, a decent but only that rating in the low 80s, 1 td against 0 ints and his first loss in the big game.

They fail to make the playoffs in 2008, with Brady out injured, though they go for 11-5 with the back up.2009 and 2010 are one and dones.

2011: Another dominant offensive unit leads to an easy bump of the Broncos in the opening round.

Next up a squeaker of a 3 pt conference championship win against Baltimore. Brady is horrible, 239 yds, 0 tds against 2 ints and a 57.5 rating. Bill and company save him and put them back in the SB.

Brady is much better in this his second SB defeat at the hands of the Giants. He has a very respectable low 90s rating, throwing for 276 yds, 2 tds against 1 int.

2012 and 2013 see them out in the second round.

2014: Brady is terrific in the opening, a tough game against Baltimore.

They destroy the Colts in route to another SB.

A great Pats rally in the 4th quarter, combined with the most perplexing goal line call in SB history on the part of Seattle ends with a Brady sporting his fourth ring. It's his second truly great SB as he goes 328 yds, 4 tds against 1 int and a 101 rating. This is who he was supposed to be...but it could as easily have been his next loss.

2015: A ghostly Peyton summons enough to put them out in the conference championship, giving Peyton an even split, with Tom's last big game win against him a decade earlier.

2016: we're about to find out.

I've always held that Brady developed into one of the best of his or any generation. But an argument could be made that he remains the second best of his era and that he was for a good bit of his career a system qb, with less than stellar marches to and performances in the big game, leading a team that won 11 games with him on the bench and won all of its rings but one by fg margins.

That's why this one is important. If he could have another Seattle like game it would go a long way to covering those Giants debacles and heating up the argument that I suspect will otherwise, over time, look more like an argument for an extremely durable and talented qb playing for the right team and a great coach.
Good post TH. I think interceptions are underweighted in the passer rating. Especially in games decided by one score or under, even one pick basically costs you the whole game.
 

Town Heretic

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Good post TH. I think interceptions are underweighted in the passer rating. Especially in games decided by one score or under, even one pick basically costs you the whole game.
Thanks and I agree on the int. weighting. I know the new qbr is supposed to do a better job at scaling overall performance, but I haven't followed it enough to get a strong sense of the case. And dropped balls should factor in a rating as well. Or, all incompletes are not equal.

I wasn't trying to beat up on Brady, who I hold in high regard, but unlike a couple of greats during his time, he's never had to adapt to different coaching or another system. And the coach and system he's in run so well that every time one of their back-ups gets serious time under center he ends up taking a starters position elsewhere--long enough for the new coaches to realize that something isn't happening in theirs. Even the assistant coaches look better within it, which takes me back to Bill. Whatever you think of his ethics, he's got something cobbled there in a remarkably effective manner and can coach like my old Bear. That is, with one Giant exception, he seems generally capable of beating yours with his or his with yours.
 

Jerry Shugart

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Even the assistant coaches look better within it, which takes me back to Bill. Whatever you think of his ethics, he's got something cobbled there in a remarkably effective manner and can coach like my old Bear. That is, with one Giant exception, he seems generally capable of beating yours with his or his with yours.

Jimmy Fallon said, "Belichick said at the Thursday press conference, 'The balls that we practice with are as bad as they can be: wet, slippery, cold, sticky.'"
 

Nihilo

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Thanks and I agree on the int. weighting. I know the new qbr is supposed to do a better job at scaling overall performance, but I haven't followed it enough to get a strong sense of the case. And dropped balls should factor in a rating as well. Or, all incompletes are not equal.
Correct. A long interception on 3rd and long, for instance, is as good as a punt. Meanwhile any game decided by a score or less is going to be affected by every stalled drive, and an interception is as good as having the qb playing for the defense for that play.
I wasn't trying to beat up on Brady, who I hold in high regard, but unlike a couple of greats during his time, he's never had to adapt to different coaching or another system. And the coach and system he's in run so well that every time one of their back-ups gets serious time under center he ends up taking a starters position elsewhere--long enough for the new coaches to realize that something isn't happening in theirs. Even the assistant coaches look better within it, which takes me back to Bill. Whatever you think of his ethics, he's got something cobbled there in a remarkably effective manner and can coach like my old Bear. That is, with one Giant exception, he seems generally capable of beating yours with his or his with yours.
I didn't think you were beating up on him, you laid down the facts of the matter fairly fairly. And as a result I imagined what similar scholarship would look like for all the other qbs in the same discussion. Thanks again. :e4e:
 
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