NFL 2016

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Town Heretic

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Hall of Fame
Why do you like the Colts? Since childhood?
No, I was a Steelers fan for most of my young life. But not having a team in state I tended to follow a group of players, qb central to that. When they were gone and the coaching had changed I moved on. The Colts began with Captain Comeback. It was a fun time to watch them play. Then they picked up a coach I liked and a qb I'd rooted against but admired in college play and I was locked in. Spend that many adult years rooting for a team and they're just yours. It didn't hurt that they found another potentially great qb to take up the next ten to fifteen years either.

We need a better front office and better coaches though.

My only childhood teams are the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Tigers. So it's been a rough go for a while, punctuated by occasional bliss. :)
 

patrick jane

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No, I was a Steelers fan for most of my young life. But not having a team in state I tended to follow a group of players, qb central to that. When they were gone and the coaching had changed I moved on. The Colts began with Captain Comeback. It was a fun time to watch them play. Then they picked up a coach I liked and a qb I'd rooted against but admired in college play and I was locked in. Spend that many adult years rooting for a team and they're just yours. It didn't hurt that they found another potentially great qb to take up the next ten to fifteen years either.

We need a better front office and better coaches though.

My only childhood teams are the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Tigers. So it's been a rough go for a while, punctuated by occasional bliss. :)
I was a Raiders and Steelers fan in the 70s and didn't care for 20 years until the Rams came to town. Now I will always root for the Rams even though they're gone.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Considering the Colts shootout loss to Detroit...two qbs having banner days against suspect defenses, though both did passably well against the pass last year.

Tale of the tape?

Luck: 385 yds, 4 td to 0 ints, rating 119.5

Stafford: 340 yds, 3 td to 0 ints, rating 128.6

Both teams ran well enough, Detroit averaged 4.8 a carry and 119 yds. Indy managed 82 yds at 4.3.

The Lions won the first half 21-10. Indy ruled the second half 25-18, but just couldn't overcome the half time lead.
 

Quetzal

New member
Coming into tonight, I was behind 0-1 by misplacing my faith in the Carolina offense. How did I do going into Monday Night Football? Let's get started.


Atlanta -3 Tampa Bay

My Call:
Matt Ryan has put in the work but we certainly can't under estimate Winston and company. But, gun to my head, I will go against the local expert and go with a (semi healthy) Julio and the Falcons at home, but it will be close.

Results: Atl 24 TB 31
:smack:
I mean, what can you say. Winston is out to prove that he is something special and he is off to a good start with 4 touchdowns and 281 yards. He simply had a field day against the Atlanta defense who couldn’t find an answer.
0-2

Baltimore -3.5 Buffalo
My Call:
You hit the nail on the head and I was really impressed with Baltimore's defense more than anything else. Their backfield is kind of a mess (what is the story with Forsett? I guess he is hanging around?). Anyway, Baltimore will take this one home on the back of their secondary and special teams.
Results: Bal13 Buff 7
:first:
Tyrod Taylor might be reconsidering his career options after he got leveled multiple times in this game. The Baltimore offense was nothing to write home about but it was enough to get me on the board.
1-2


Houston -4.5 Chicago

My Call:
Oh wow, Cutler is still around? Color me surprised, but then again, what other options do they have? My heart really goes out to Alshon Jeffery who has the potential to be incredible... too bad his supporting cast doesn't help out. You would think this would be pretty clear cut, but if we are going with the line at 4.5, it complicates things. Sure. The Bears can move the ball as well as a retiree playing volleyball, but at the same time... Houston? Dang I don't know.

Brock has some help in the form of Miller & Hopkins but is that enough? I think so but only because the Bears defense has more holes than a piece of swiss cheese. Texans
Results: Hous 23 Chi 14
:first:
J.J. Watt and the boys took it to Cutler and the Bears offense after the break. This is what we expected, right? I have no love loss for Cutler and his offensive legions don’t do much to help out his cause. Mmm swiss cheese… back to even!
2-2


Cincinnati -3 At NY Jets

My call:
The Jets have a great look offense... if you ignore their QB, Town. With folks like Brandon Marshall and Forte, Fitzy has some weapons. The problem is Fitzpatrick has not given me a reason to believe. Dalton looked great and his offense is always deadly. Bengals by 6 or more.
Results: Cin 23 NYJ 22
:smack:
Had the right pick, but the line caught me. The real story is the NY Jets and the whopping SEVEN sacks on Cinn QB Andy Dalton. The offensive line is going to have to do more to protect their meal ticket as they move forward next week to face off against the Steelers. As for me:
2-3


Philadelphia -6.5 Cleveland

My call:
Johnny Football went back to college, here is hoping the Browns took a few lessons of their own. But I doubt it. The line is in favor of the Eagles by a landslide 6.5 and I think they can over come that fairly easily. Eagles soar by 7+.
Results: Phil 29 Cle 10
:first:
RG3 got hurt, who is really surprised? This kid needs to eat a slice of humble pie before he ends his own career by partaking in stupid stunts. In any case, he couldn’t get much going before hand so this was just icing on his “Welcome to Cleveland” cake.
3-3


Green Bay -4.5 At Jacksonville

My call:
Not a chance, even with -4.5 going to the Aaron and the boys, they are too dynamic and, frankly, too good to let the opening game turn into an embarrassment. Packers
Results: GB 27 Jax 23
:smack:
The line got me again and this one surprised me. There were rumors that the chemistry between Rodgers and his offense was a bit off, but I didn’t buy it and it bit me this time. He had a rough start and couldn’t make the connections he needed to to run away with it. The GB defense didn’t help as much as I was hoping, either.
3-4


Minnesota -2.5 At Tennessee

My call:
Screw it, I will take the vikings here for the sake of argument. They just need to keep it close and their defense is still good enough. Vikings by 3.
Results: Minn 25 Tenn 16
:first:
I don’t care enough about this game to comment. But it does put the Vikings in my good graces moving forward to give me a desperately needed point.
4-4


Kansas City -7.5 San Diego

My call:
I have said it once and I will say it again. Put Rivers with any other offense and he could be a star. Unfortunately, he has to work with what he has which is next to nothing. He is a great pick up in fantasy, by the way. You can usually expect 250 and a TD or two. Unfortunately, Maclin and friends have something else to say about that. KC wins this game... but by how much? I give them 10, Chiefs
Results: KC 33 SD 27
:smack:
I just… I guess I should have know better. The KC defense couldn’t get to Rivers and he had some time to work. Alex Smith was able to bring them back but it wasn’t quite good enough given the 7.5 they were spotting the Chargers.
4-5


New Orleans -1.5 Oakland

My call:
Now hold on a minute there professor, are we looking at the same depth chart? Brees, Snead, Cook, Fleener and Ingram? Fine, it is your funeral. I think N.O. can run away with this, but they could be their own worst enemy. Saints
Results: NO 34 Oak 35
:smack:
Is this is a joke? Oakland scored HOW MANY points?! My heart goes out to Drew Brees and his offense. He threw 423 with four touchdowns to go with it and it still wasn’t enough. What can you do? If your defense doesn’t pull their end of the bargain it is going to be a long year. I am feeling it already.
4-6


Seattle -9.5 Miami

My call:
We are in agreement here. Miami lost Miller which limits their run game a bit more and their passing offense just isn't good enough against the Seattle defense. Wilson has targets to choose from and my only question is will he begin to use Jimmy Graham? Hawks
Results: Sea 12 Mia 10
:smack:
COME ON. What the heck happened here? Wilson took a shot and got hurt coupled with the Miami defense limiting the run made for a catastrophe. The Seahawks pulled it off but not by enough. Depending on the severity of Wilson’s injury will tell the story moving forward. Until then… sigh…
4-7


Giants -3.5 At Dallas

My call:
This is an easy one with the line at 3.5. The Cowboys offense is a question mark... well, a bigger question mark than before. I will be tuning into this one just to see what they can pull off. My guess is not much while Eli pulls them apart. Giants
Results: NYG 20 Dal 19
:smack:
Eli Manning is a joke and I was an absolute fool to think anything else. The Cowboys played like absolute crap and they kept it close enough to make me continue my perpetual hate for all things Eli. Rashad Jennings carried them and just barely.
4-8


Indianapolis -5.5 Detroit

My call:
Andrew Luck is looking great and as long as Hilton can stay healthy, I look for them to tag team this year into the playoffs. The supporting cast isn't too bad, either! But here is the problem... what about their defense? I think this will be a shoot out but your colts pull it out. Indy
Results: Ind 28 Det 34
:smack:
I am really frustrated and it is only the first week. This was basically a shootout that I got on the wrong end of. Can’t blame “Luck” on this one, as much as I would like to.
4-9


Arizona -5.5 New England

My call:
I don't know, this will be interesting for sure. It will really highlight the Patriots reliance on Brady if they flouder here. I say that because they have some exceptional offensive tools at their disposal. Further, Palmer gets confused for what teams he plays for. He had how many turnovers?! Nevertheless, without Brady under center, the Patriots will struggle. Cardinals
Results: Ari 21 NE 23
:smack:
From the opening drive I realized I was in trouble. Garoppolo had incredible chemistry with Edelman and the Cardinals’ zone defense was not up to snuff. Palmer started to come alive late but, let’s face it, it was too little too late for this line. Between Blount, Edelman, and Garoppolo, I am impressed with how the Pats handled themselves with a bruised/MIA offense. Meanwhile Arizona's kicking unit is looking for a rock to hide under.
4-10

Closing Remarks
The line got me more than I would like to admit and it was usually pretty close. There were also quite a few surprises. New England keeping it close, Colts losing the shootout and Miami putting a leash on Seattle to name a few. Going into Monday, there really isn't much to be excited about in regards to this weeks pick 'em. I could go off the sheet for an abysmal 6-10. I am already thinking about next week. :smack:
 
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Nihilo

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If the Pats open 1-3, I think they're fine. Even at 0-4, with the AFC East this season looking the way it does, it's at least even money that NE gets in the tournament, IMO. :) Unfortunately, NE fans have to think this way, with how our backup is looking. :idunno:
'Pats just clinched.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Looking back as we head into tonight's two contests...short peeks:

Week 1

1. Car @ Den: the Super Bowl rematch, sans a few important pieces, has the line favoring the Panthers by 3.
Call: Denver in the upset. Maybe Carolina by one. :eek:
About as close as I thought. 1-0 :D


2. TB @ Atl: another year, another offensive system for the Falcons...the line has it Tampa and 3.
Call: I just can't find faith in Atlanta, so I'm going with Tampa and the hot young hand.
Bam! :D 2-0


3. Buf @ Bal: in a game only their mothers will love. The line has Bal favored by 3.5...
Call: Ravens. Ryan begins his short season march toward unemployment compensation.
:D 3-0

4. Chi @ Hou: The line is convinced Houston has solved its problem, taking the Texans by 4.5.
Call: ... Hate calling this one, but let's go with Houston taking a shot at getting that signal calling monkey off their back. Texans.
So far so good, Texan fans. :D 4-0


5. Cin @ Jets: for some reason the line here is a modest 3 in favor of the Bengals.
Call: Bengals.
The Jets were better than I thought they should be. I've geared up the model since this call. Strangely, it had the thing a two point Bengal victory, but that's life. :mmph: 4-1

6. Cle @ Phi: the Eagles go into this game a heavy favorite with the line at 6.5 in favor.
Call: Philly should mangle the Browns setting up their next half years worth of unrealistic expectations.
:mock: Cleveland :D 5-1

7. GB @ Jac: The line is a not so nervous 4.5 in favor of GB.
Call: I like GB by a td in a real contest.
Bit on the hindquarters by a half-point. :mmph: 5-2

8. Min @ Ten: The line is Vikes and 2.5. The money doesn't want anything to do with it, 55/45 in favor. That's all I care to do with this one.
Call: Coin flip. Give me the Ten.
Darn coin flip. :mmph: 5-3


9. SD @ KC: the line is KC and 7.5...
Call: KC in a blow-out.
Bit on the nose by 1.5 pts. :mmph: 5-4

10. Oak @ NO: the Saints are a 1.5 fav at home by line..
Call: Oakland.
The worst defense from last year delivers despite Brees having a great day. :D 6-4

11. Mia @ Sea: The line has it a bruising 9.5 in favor. Even with that line the money is 57/43 sure Seattle can pull it off.
Call: Seattle isn't the old Seattle, which they only were for about two years...but Miami still looks an awful lot like Miami with an emphasis on awful. Seahawks.
Are the Hawks that bad on offense or is Miami better than I thought? :think: :mmph: 6-5

12. Gia @ Dal: would have been more compelling with Romo under center. I mean more compelling if you wanted to bet the Cowboys. I'm actually more interested in this game without him. The line is Dal by 3.5.
Call: Giants.
Whew. :D 7-5

13. Det @ Ind: my Colts are a 5.5 fav by line. The money says amen at 73/27. Who am I to argue?

Call: :D
:mmph: 7-6

14. NE @ Arz: The line has Ariz by 5.5 and the money is 65/35 in favor, with the 35 being, of course, the entire state of Massachusetts. :plain:

Call: Seriously?
Lost my nerve and went with NE on points with ESPN. Glad I did. :D 8-6

A decent start for winging it, though I'd be 10-4 if I'd had the model running. Such is life. :mmph:

Tonight?


15. Pit @ Was: two teams with a few things to prove about their general direction...okay, one team. The Steelers just have to stay healthy and field a three dimensional offense at some point. The line says Pit by an unenthusiastic but solid 3.5. A number of computer models are taking Washington to upset at home. The money isn't buying the worry that might create, going 75/25 in favor of the visiting Steelers.

Call: I'm changing this one because my model has it a fg margin of victory. Give me Washington.


16. LA @ SF: is it just me or does that feel right? I mean geographically speaking. The game no one waited for is capping the week. Okay. Here goes. The line is the Rams by an amazing 2.5. I mean it's amazing that anyone actually has a line on this game. The money (both dollars) is 73/27 in favor.

Call: Another change as my model has the Rams winning by a fg.
 

Quetzal

New member
Town, I would be really curious to see what goes into your model. I hear you talk about it a lot but... I have no idea whacha talkin about! :eek:
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Town, I would be really curious to see what goes into your model. I hear you talk about it a lot but... I have no idea whacha talkin about! :eek:
It's a formula I use that begins with objective data on scoring and relative strength of schedule, then mixes in subjective evaluations of position strength and overall effectiveness, and coaching. Those numbers go in and I estimate a range of likely scores. The old one took a lot of work, but had me at 15 out of over a hundred thousand competing on ESPN a few years back. Once Jack arrived that sort of time went out of the window. Now I simplify things. This year I may just call it from the hip. I worked up the simpler, less accurate version looking back and it's ahead of me by two games. That's why I changed my last two picks.
 

patrick jane

BANNED
Banned
It's a formula I use that begins with objective data on scoring and relative strength of schedule, then mixes in subjective evaluations of position strength and overall effectiveness, and coaching. Those numbers go in and I estimate a range of likely scores. The old one took a lot of work, but had me at 15 out of over a hundred thousand competing on ESPN a few years back. Once Jack arrived that sort of time went out of the window. Now I simplify things. This year I may just call it from the hip. I worked up the simpler, less accurate version looking back and it's ahead of me by two games. That's why I changed my last two picks.
I heard the ESPN fantasy football site crashed Sunday -
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
What? There are two games tonight?
Yeah, but they're on ESPN, so for me they might as well not be. We could add it to our Roku for another 20 a month, but I'm fine without it. A shame that Monday Night Football is no longer available to over the air fans.
 

Quetzal

New member
Going into Monday night, I needed some help. Let's see if I get it.

Pitt @ Wash
My Call:
Upsets? No way. Big Ben is healthy and his supporting receivers will do just fine. I admire the optimism in Washington, though. Pitt
:first:
Cousins got off to a good start but couldn't get much going after a pair of field goals. Big Ben looked rusty out of the gate but was able to recover to put them away for good in the 4th.
5-10

LA@SF
My Call:
This game sucks, let's just say it. I don't care about it and I had to look up the Rams QB because I couldn't even remember his name. That is how little I care about it. We have agreed quite a bit this week so I will take the Rams to make it fun.
:smack:
Well, I wasn't wrong but I wasn't right either. Colin must be feeling a bit insecure watching a decent performance out of his replacement. At any rate, I give Hyde a high five and move on to week two where I hope to bounce back from a very rocky first outing.
5-11
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Going into Monday night, I needed some help. Let's see if I get it.

Pitt @ Wash
My Call:

:first:
Cousins got off to a good start but couldn't get much going after a pair of field goals. Big Ben looked rusty out of the gate but was able to recover to put them away for good in the 4th.
5-10

LA@SF
My Call:

:smack:
Well, I wasn't wrong but I wasn't right either. Colin must be feeling a bit insecure watching a decent performance out of his replacement. At any rate, I give Hyde a high five and move on to week two where I hope to bounce back from a very rocky first outing.
5-11
I got a lucky mistake bounce by failing to correct my ESPN on Washington, so I'm better there. 9-7 here with the model out performing my guesswork, but I can live with it.

ESPN Pig Skin Pick'em Called Against the Line
PCT97
RANK4829
PTS10

 

Quetzal

New member
I got a lucky mistake bounce by failing to correct my ESPN on Washington, so I'm better there. 9-7 here with the model out performing my guesswork, but I can live with it.

ESPN Pig Skin Pick'em Called Against the Line
PCT97
RANK4829
PTS10

What motivated you to that flip-flop anyway? It seemed like a decent lock with so many question marks in Washington.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
What motivated you to that flip-flop anyway? It seemed like a decent lock with so many question marks in Washington.
Couldn't tell you. :chuckle: I was literally pulling picks out of the air based on eyeballing them last season. I didn't watch five minutes of preseason, though I was aware of upgrades at various skill positions league wide. Worked out anyway. Did you take a look at the consensus power ratings?

If so, would you have the Hawks and Pack as high up that food chain as they fell by average?


The Rams looked sharp last night -
Well the good news is there's room for offensive improvement. :plain:
 

Quetzal

New member
If so, would you have the Hawks and Pack as high up that food chain as they fell by average?
Going into week one it is hard to bet against them because they are both great football teams. Jordy Nelson returning had a lot of people excited and Seattle has been a contender, not much has changed. Going into week two, however, hind sight is 20/20. Seattle is in trouble if Wilson loses his mobility. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company have some relationship building exercises they need to work on if they hope to pull themselves together. Jacksonville should have been a relaxed walk in the park, unfortunately for them it was a lot harder than it should have been.
 

Quetzal

New member
By the way, I joined the ESPN pick 'em. Would you like to start the post for the week? If not, I can. Are you using the spread from ESPN?
 
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