NFL 2015

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Granite

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Hall of Fame
Both times?

Yes. Tyree and Manningham. Can't even watch either on replay.

But you can't argue against the kid in the big game. He's golden.

You can't game plan against pure dumb luck.

Although you can game plan against Luck.:devil: :wazzup:

A decent team that made the most of its opportunities after winning ten games in the regular season and had to beat pretty good teams on the road for the chance to tee up. They didn't just buy a ticket. They earned the right to be there.

I think part of the "charm" of that '07 Giants squad (such as it is) remains that oblivious air they had--a team who didn't realize they kept crashing the party and just didn't seem to care much less notice.

If you're going to attach that much to regular season you're going to have to amend your Peyton stance.

In terms of overall talent, skill, performance, and consistency, Brady's light years away from Eli, the Duke of Derp. End of story.

First guy was an idiot and he's paid for it. Eli? He earned his way into the NFL and proved he belonged. By all accounts he's a pretty good guy from a pretty good family of guys. Dough-faced? That's what you have for him?

Yes.:chuckle:
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
That is not enough. (Sounds funny to say since he won the championship that year but hear me out...) He is not a dominate player. Sorry, he isn't. If he was he would be more consistent. That leads into your next comment...
He was dominant enough in two SBs. Else, he's a decent regular season qb on mostly below average teams. :idunno:

I don't know either. That is why I do not consider him an elite class player.
Kenny Stabler was a bit like that. Almost like they needed something else to get the level of interest and action that they were capable of...no idea why. He's elite, his rings end that argument. But he's also about as exciting as white bread. His teammates speak highly of him but who is lining up to go to his place for dinner?

Sure they do. You named them.
None of those guys are Jordan. Montana was Jordan. But we're fortunate to have the talent (and the altered rules) we do today if you love offense.

I think Marino would kill these guys playing under the current passer friendly skies of the NFL. I think Montana would have a couple of extra rings. But it is what it is.

Specifically Rodgers, Brady, and Peyton. Despite Peyton's spiral and rather lack luster performance in the playoffs, he is (er, was) an elite class QB. These three guys, especially, dictate the game and take their will and impose on the other team. You do not see that same dominance/command out of Eli. Just my .02.
They're great players. Fun to watch. Dalton is outplaying all of them so far this year and Palmer is right there with them. But you left them off, so maybe it's that plus something that just connects or doesn't with you. Probably a bit of that with anyone if it's not just numbers.

:cheers:
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Yes. Tyree and Manningham. Can't even watch either on replay.
Two plays didn't make his stats. And neither play made your guy play less effectively than Eli in both, but it happened.

You can't game plan against pure dumb luck.
Supra.

I think part of the "charm" of that '07 Giants squad (such as it is) remains that oblivious air they had--a team who didn't realize they kept crashing the party and just didn't seem to care much less notice.
I stopped shaking my head at them by the time they made the game. First, because they'd played your boys as close as you can at the end. Then, well, they just kept winning. I can think of a few teams that looked great early and finished out of the running.

In terms of overall talent, skill, performance, and consistency, Brady's light years away from Eli, the Duke of Derp. End of story.
I look at what they've done and I take Brady. It isn't close to me. Light years in talent? No, I don't think so, but I think Brady is as fierce a competitor as you could ask for and brings that to every game. I don't think that's true with Eli. And that's important.

Now if you put Eli under Bill and those teams, I don't know. I don't know if it wakes Eli up during the regular season or gets them both fired.

Yes.:chuckle:
:chuckle:
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
I think Marino would kill these guys playing under the current passer friendly skies of the NFL. I think Montana would have a couple of extra rings. But it is what it is.

I put Marino over Favre as the best "passer" because I watched them both play, saw their teammates, and their schemes. Marino passed for 300 yard games like we use smart phones when it was not a common thing.
 

Granite

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Hall of Fame
I stopped shaking my head at them by the time they made the game. First, because they'd played your boys as close as you can at the end. Then, well, they just kept winning. I can think of a few teams that looked great early and finished out of the running.

I was struck with a very eerie feeling the second they upset Green Bay, and within minutes got a text from my best friend that pretty much summed it up: "This is not good."

I look at what they've done and I take Brady. It isn't close to me. Light years in talent? No, I don't think so, but I think Brady is as fierce a competitor as you could ask for and brings that to every game. I don't think that's true with Eli. And that's important.

Yeah, I think the indifference you see from Eli sometimes plays in to why it can be so hard to root for him, or at least believe he's got 100% passion for the game.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I was struck with a very eerie feeling the second they upset Green Bay, and within minutes got a text from my best friend that pretty much summed it up: "This is not good."
Sometimes teams that you wouldn't think should match up keep managing to...it's like Miami. For years they were that okay team that could just beat anyone without beating enough of anyone to be more than that, "Ugh" factor.

Yeah, I think the indifference you see from Eli sometimes plays in to why it can be so hard to root for him, or at least believe he's got 100% passion for the game.
Maybe he's just a highly competitive B personality in an A profession.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I put Marino over Favre as the best "passer" because I watched them both play, saw their teammates, and their schemes. Marino passed for 300 yard games like we use smart phones when it was not a common thing.
A beast, but too good on a team that he kept from draft picks for years. Not as much of a problem now with the way free agency is set up, but I've never seen better at getting the ball, quickly, where it needed to be.
 

Caledvwlch

New member
I was struck with a very eerie feeling the second they upset Green Bay, and within minutes got a text from my best friend that pretty much summed it up: "This is not good."

Quite a prescient fellow. :think:


Yeah, I think the indifference you see from Eli sometimes plays in to why it can be so hard to root for him, or at least believe he's got 100% passion for the game.

I was just imagining this little scenario where he never really wanted to play football, but he was too good not to, plus he was a Manning. But his degree is in Marketing. So, there goes that idea.
 

Quetzal

New member
I am sure you have all been waiting for my expert analysis before submitting your picks, so here ya go! :eek:

Mia @ NE: Granite will be happy to see this match up. Miami is coming off a huge game last week but I do not see them putting up much of a fight against Brady at home. Pats.

Det @ KC: Kansas City, that is all the thought I want to put into this game.

TB @ Atl: Well, if Tampa Bay couldn’t handle the Redskins, there is nothing in my mind that says they stand any sort of chance against the Falcons. Atlanta by a margin.

Ari @ Cle: I foolishly put my money on Cleveland last week and you will not get me again! Cards!

SF @ StL: Another mismatch this week unless Colin pulls a rabbit out of his hat and all of a sudden remembers how to play football. St. Louis gets my fantasy defense lock in for the second time in a row. Rams run away with it.

NYG @ NO: I don’t like Eli… that is more than enough of a reason for me to take NO at home.

Minn @ Chi: The poor Bears, the poor poor Bears. I think Cutler will have a rough time but it will be close. With Chicago coming off a bye I expect it to be a squeeker but I see the Vikings taking it on the road.

SD @ Bal: Bing sports has Baltimore as a 64% favorite, if that means anything (it doesn’t). Anyway, Rivers has been my Fan Duel workhorse for the last three weeks and I do not see that changing here. I think SD turns it around on the road. Chargers!

Cinn @ Pitt: Oh boy, oh boy. With the chance of Big Ben coming back this week I believe this will be a great game. Nevertheless, I like Dalton and I think he keeps them clean through seven games.

Tenn @ Hou: I cannot think of a game I care less about. Houston or whoever…

NYJ @ Oak: This is a toss up. Fitzpatrick has had two good performances and I can see him keeping that up here on the road. I will take the Jets, but I think it will be close.

Sea @ Dal: Dallas is a mess and I do not see that changing anytime soon. Russell Wilson is looking for a breakout game and this should be it. Seahawks!

GB @ Den: This is the game of the week. Peyton has a lot of questions to answer and is coming off of a bye week. On the other side of the field, Rodgers is facing off against the best passing defense in the league. With that said, I would really like to see the running game take shape here. Lacy needs a big game to keep his job and it will be needed here. I will take Green Bay on the road!

Indy @ Car: Carolina takes it here. They are playing too good and they are home.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I'll get to my breakdown, if time allows, later in the week...I don't normally sit at the coin flip kids table (straight up picks) but until the lines are solid and just for fun, for now...
Mia @ NE: Granite will be happy to see this match up. Miami is coming off a huge game last week but I do not see them putting up much of a fight against Brady at home. Pats.
I like it a high scoring, ten point win for the Pats.

Det @ KC: Kansas City, that is all the thought I want to put into this game.
I like the Chiefs by nearly two scores.

TB @ Atl: Well, if Tampa Bay couldn’t handle the Redskins, there is nothing in my mind that says they stand any sort of chance against the Falcons. Atlanta by a margin.
Everyone wins by a margin. :eek: Atlanta will play better offense at home than they did in that snoozer against a braced Titans. Tampa can't stop anyone. Atlanta going away.

Ari @ Cle: I foolishly put my money on Cleveland last week and you will not get me again! Cards!
Arz by ten or more.

SF @ StL: Another mismatch this week unless Colin pulls a rabbit out of his hat and all of a sudden remembers how to play football. St. Louis gets my fantasy defense lock in for the second time in a row. Rams run away with it.
I have a feeling this is going to turn into an uncomfortable line, but as a straight up it's hard to see going against the Rams, so I won't.

NYG @ NO: I don’t like Eli… that is more than enough of a reason for me to take NO at home.
Both teams had td wins over teams with problems. I like the Saints at home, but I'll bet they're going to be a 2.5 to 3.0 favorite and watch this one be one of the few upsets against the spread in a one to two point dif.

Minn @ Chi: The poor Bears, the poor poor Bears. I think Cutler will have a rough time but it will be close. With Chicago coming off a bye I expect it to be a squeeker but I see the Vikings taking it on the road.
Indicators are this will be a surprisingly spare line, maybe a one point or push. Hard for me to believe. I have the Vikings winning comfortably.

SD @ Bal: Bing sports has Baltimore as a 64% favorite, if that means anything (it doesn’t). Anyway, Rivers has been my Fan Duel workhorse for the last three weeks and I do not see that changing here. I think SD turns it around on the road. Chargers!
Baltimore has let me down about every time I've picked them. 73% of the money is laying on SD to upset an early fg line...so naturally I'll take Baltimore at home.

Cinn @ Pitt: Oh boy, oh boy. With the chance of Big Ben coming back this week I believe this will be a great game. Nevertheless, I like Dalton and I think he keeps them clean through seven games.
Hate this game. Wouldn't bet it for love or money, but if Ben is back I like the Steelers close. If he isn't I like Cin by ten or better.

Tenn @ Hou: I cannot think of a game I care less about. Houston or whoever…
Ten held Atlanta to barely double digits in their loss. Houston made Miami look like the Pats or Packers. I think that bodes well for the Titans.

NYJ @ Oak: This is a toss up. Fitzpatrick has had two good performances and I can see him keeping that up here on the road. I will take the Jets, but I think it will be close.
Jets by more than a fg.

Sea @ Dal: Dallas is a mess and I do not see that changing anytime soon. Russell Wilson is looking for a breakout game and this should be it. Seahawks!
I don't think Wilson has break out games, but they're running well and playing stout defense. They wear Dallas down by the fourth and take this one by three to five. I wouldn't go over six.

GB @ Den: This is the game of the week. Peyton has a lot of questions to answer and is coming off of a bye week. On the other side of the field, Rodgers is facing off against the best passing defense in the league. With that said, I would really like to see the running game take shape here. Lacy needs a big game to keep his job and it will be needed here. I will take Green Bay on the road!
Denver finds its offense. 31-27

Indy @ Car: Carolina takes it here. They are playing too good and they are home.
Indy is a mess. They should show up, but the Panthers at home, absent the miraculous, will be living in the backfield. Panthers by six or more.
 

Quetzal

New member
I'll get to my breakdown, if time allows, later in the week...I don't normally sit at the coin flip kids table (straight up picks) but until the lines are solid and just for fun, for now..
I look forward to your picks, maybe you can teach me how to pick in that way since I have a very rudimentary understanding of how the +/- work. :D
 

Caledvwlch

New member
I achieved a life-long dream of going 5-9 against the spread last week, so I'm going to see if I can use the magic of Python scripting to help me make my picks this week. I've been teaching myself some rudimentary coding, and thought this was a good opportunity to practice. This is a really basic script that basically just choosing "randomly" between 0 and 1, like a coin flip. If it chooses 0, I pick the home team. If it chooses 1, I pick the visitor. I tell it how many games, and it prints out a list of "Home" and "Visitor" in some order. Then I just directly transpose that list onto my picks list.

I put "randomly" in quotation marks because computers actually have a really hard time with real randomness. They are too logical. For the nerds (from the python.org docs for the "random" library):

Almost all module functions depend on the basic function random(), which generates a random float uniformly in the semi-open range [0.0, 1.0). Python uses the Mersenne Twister as the core generator. It produces 53-bit precision floats and has a period of 2**19937-1. The underlying implementation in C is both fast and threadsafe. The Mersenne Twister is one of the most extensively tested random number generators in existence. However, being completely deterministic, it is not suitable for all purposes, and is completely unsuitable for cryptographic purposes.

Basically, I'm trying to take as much fun out of this as I can.

So here is what the script spat out:

Visitor, Visitor, Home, Visitor, Visitor, Visitor, Visitor, Visitor, Visitor, Home, Visitor, Visitor, Home, Home

Now, I give you Cal's week 8 Picks:

Mia @ NE(-7.5): The all-knowing Python script believes that like their perennially lackluster brethren in New Jersey, Miami will keep this one close enough. Dolphins.

Det @ KC(-5.5): I'm not sure which way I would have gone on this one if I was deciding with reasons and stuff, but I'm not, so Lions.

Cin @ Pit(+2.5): Fate has chosen the first of an alarmingly small number of home teams, and already I'm starting to doubt the sanity of this plan. Steelers.

TB @ Atl(-7.5): You don't get to see spreads like this that often in this division. I'm strangely comfortable going with whatever Tampa Bay's team is called.

NYG @ NO(-3.5): Is it just me, or did someone at CBS accidentally put a minus sign in there? Giants.

Min @ Chi(+2.5): I might start a Cal's Sleeper of the Week pick, meaning I'll point out which game looks like it would be my favorite to nap through. Our inaugural contest? This one. Vikings.

Ari @ Cle(+5.5): My idiotic script idea doesn't look so dumb now, does it? Cardinals.

SD @ Bal(-3.5): This game must have been hard to handicap. Would I rely on either of these teams to beat anyone by more than a field goal after what they've done the first seven weeks? No. But thankfully, a complex mathematical algorithm imported into a very uncomplex program is making the decision for me. Chargers.

SF @ StL(-8.5): What is wrong with you, Cal? Even you wouldn't be dumb enough to—49ers.

Ten @ Hou(-.5 <-- :rotfl: ): Now that is a spread. A low-cholesterol spread whose resemblance to butter strains credulity. Texans.

NYJ @ Oak(+6.5): I think my script has a thing for Jersey boys. Jets.

Sea @ Dal(+6.5): The Cowboys fan is native to Texas, but can be found in the wild in every environment and climate of North America. They are known for their keen memory of the nineties and for eating their young. Seahawks.

GB @ Den(+3.5): I've come this far. No turning back now. *closes eyes and clicks his mouse on*: Broncos.

Ind @ Car(-6.5): This weeks picks contest will most likely be wrapped up on Sunday night again, because nobody in our pool is picking Indy, not even the soulless, dispassionate script. Panthers.
 

Caledvwlch

New member
I look forward to your picks, maybe you can teach me how to pick in that way since I have a very rudimentary understanding of how the +/- work. :D

Haven't we already gone over it?

Buf @ NE(-7.5) Means NE is the favorite. If you pick them, they have to win by at least 8 points (more than 7.5) A final score of Mia 21, NE 28 is not enough to win this pick if you pick New England. However, if you took Miami, that final score is exactly what you want to see.
 

Quetzal

New member
Mia @ NE(-7.5): The all-knowing Python script believes that like their perennially lackluster brethren in New Jersey, Miami will keep this one close enough. Dolphins.
I would like to try again maybe using the spread. So, if I understand this example correctly. If I picked NE, they would have to win by my than 7 points? OR I could pick Miami and they would have to lose by less then 8 points?
 

Quetzal

New member
Haven't we already gone over it?

Buf @ NE(-7.5) Means NE is the favorite. If you pick them, they have to win by at least 8 points (more than 7.5) A final score of Mia 21, NE 28 is not enough to win this pick if you pick New England. However, if you took Miami, that final score is exactly what you want to see.
Okay, got it. Sorry. :D
 

Caledvwlch

New member
I would like to try again maybe using the spread. So, if I understand this example correctly. If I picked NE, they would have to win by my than 7 points? OR I could pick Miami and they would have to lose by less then 8 points?

Bingo. The spreads on my picks come from the CBS Sports. Their fantasy page has a section for pick-em leagues, and their spreads always come out on Tuesday and stay locked in for the rest of the week, regardless of whether, say, Tom Brady gets hurt in practice. Which is weird, but it keeps it simple I guess.
 
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