NFL 2014
- Thread starter Nick M
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Caledvwlch
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That is beyond impressive. Rodgers is a monster.
I think the important thing we should all take away from the weekend, other than my 11 wins against the spread, is:
:mock: kmo
I don't think that can really be emphasized enough.
lain:
:mock: kmo
I don't think that can really be emphasized enough.
lain:
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I think the important thing we should all take away from the weekend, other than my 11 wins against the spread, is:
:mock: kmo
I don't think that can really be emphasized enough.
:sozo2:
On a different note, how about Rice being reinstated. So Goodell is basically a liar??
:mock: Goodell
16. Mia @ Jets: the resume bowl sees Miami entering the Jet's back yard a 5.5 favorite and the action 88/12 in support. I'm going for the Jets to keep it closer and the upset...why, I couldn't tell you.
And there's the gambling coup de grâce and I'm 12-4 against the line for the week.
Miami is ahead of Kansas City based on their conference record, with the Dolphins' 6-3 to the Chiefs' 5-4.
I know, that's what the ESPN quote said. :chuckle: I just thought head-to-head was always the first tie-breaker. When I hear people talk about making the playoffs I usually hear them first mention any head to head results. :idunno:
Oh, didn't read it, just your consternation and I assumed reading you the answer wasn't there so I chimed in.
You should stop listening to those people.
lain:
Week 14
1. Dal @ Chi: Dallas is, for the moment, on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in and needs to win this one. The 5-7 Bears are in freefall and whispers of luring a certain Jet coach to take over defensive duties doesn't smack of a team trying to rally. The line is Dallas by 3.5 and the action is 67/33 in favor. I like the Cowboys by four, around 26-22.
2. Pit @ Cin: the Bengals have only lost one at home this year and the stumbling Steelers are a .500 road team. The line has Cin a 3.5 favorite (a theme this week?) but the action is 57/43 in favor of an upset. :think: Pittsburgh needs to run effectively to have a chance. That's the cats weakness (25th). I'll take the three win team over up and down and at home. Give me the Bengals.
3. Ind @ Cle: so, how long before we learn if Johnny can read (defenses, that is)? Maybe this week as the heavily outclassed Browns welcome one of the more potent offenses going. The line is a scant 3.5 (though this time with the visitor) and the action is running 84/16 in favor of seeing Johnny by halftime and a loss by the end of the fourth.
I'll take the Colts to cover and by as much as a td.
4. TB @ Det: the Lions are a hefty 9.5 favorite, with the action concurring by 67/33. . . that's a big line. I like Detroit by two tds or better so I'm not grousing. Tampa has one of the leagues worst running games and Detroit the best run stopper, leaving the Bucs fate resting on its 18th ranked pass attack...against Detroit's 12th rated defense in that particular. A long flight home. Give me the Lions.
5. Gia @ Ten: reeling from the one point loss I called, the G-men are in trouble of the sort only the Titans could help. Favored by .5 on the road I'll give Eli and company the nod, as will a 73/27 action split.
6. SL @ Was: funny how a game I'd have shuddered at a few weeks ago is now intriguing. The line is SL by 2.5 and the action runs 81/19 with it...that small a line is hard to resist, though Colt makes me jittery. My model says by nine, so okay.
7. Bal @ Mia: first three star game. The Ravens are a 2.5 favorite. The action runs 57/43. I'm less confident, but have it a fg win one way or another...I have more confidence in the overall from Baltimore so I'll nod in their direction. Both teams are run first, in terms of productivity, but Miami is an anemic 21st against the run and Baltimore is 4th. Look for a relatively low scoring affair.
8. Jets @ Min: ohboy...a half star game...line, Min a 5.5 favorite with 73/27 favorable action. Sure.
Back with the second half a bit later. :e4e:
1. Dal @ Chi: Dallas is, for the moment, on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in and needs to win this one. The 5-7 Bears are in freefall and whispers of luring a certain Jet coach to take over defensive duties doesn't smack of a team trying to rally. The line is Dallas by 3.5 and the action is 67/33 in favor. I like the Cowboys by four, around 26-22.
2. Pit @ Cin: the Bengals have only lost one at home this year and the stumbling Steelers are a .500 road team. The line has Cin a 3.5 favorite (a theme this week?) but the action is 57/43 in favor of an upset. :think: Pittsburgh needs to run effectively to have a chance. That's the cats weakness (25th). I'll take the three win team over up and down and at home. Give me the Bengals.
3. Ind @ Cle: so, how long before we learn if Johnny can read (defenses, that is)? Maybe this week as the heavily outclassed Browns welcome one of the more potent offenses going. The line is a scant 3.5 (though this time with the visitor) and the action is running 84/16 in favor of seeing Johnny by halftime and a loss by the end of the fourth.
I'll take the Colts to cover and by as much as a td.
4. TB @ Det: the Lions are a hefty 9.5 favorite, with the action concurring by 67/33. . . that's a big line. I like Detroit by two tds or better so I'm not grousing. Tampa has one of the leagues worst running games and Detroit the best run stopper, leaving the Bucs fate resting on its 18th ranked pass attack...against Detroit's 12th rated defense in that particular. A long flight home. Give me the Lions.
5. Gia @ Ten: reeling from the one point loss I called, the G-men are in trouble of the sort only the Titans could help. Favored by .5 on the road I'll give Eli and company the nod, as will a 73/27 action split.
6. SL @ Was: funny how a game I'd have shuddered at a few weeks ago is now intriguing. The line is SL by 2.5 and the action runs 81/19 with it...that small a line is hard to resist, though Colt makes me jittery. My model says by nine, so okay.
7. Bal @ Mia: first three star game. The Ravens are a 2.5 favorite. The action runs 57/43. I'm less confident, but have it a fg win one way or another...I have more confidence in the overall from Baltimore so I'll nod in their direction. Both teams are run first, in terms of productivity, but Miami is an anemic 21st against the run and Baltimore is 4th. Look for a relatively low scoring affair.
8. Jets @ Min: ohboy...a half star game...line, Min a 5.5 favorite with 73/27 favorable action. Sure.
Back with the second half a bit later. :e4e:
It all means nothing right now.
Not all the teams have played the same amount of conference and division games.
For example, in the AFC North, Baltimore has played 5 division games, while Pittsburgh and Cleveland have played 4 division games.
Moreover, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have played 9 conference games, while Baltimore has played 8.
So, using the tie breaking formulas right now, Baltimore does eliminate Pitt and Clev, but that's because they have played more division games, and less conference games.
Week 14 cont.
9. Car @ NO: the Panthers have dropped seven straight and they're still in the hunt for their division.lain: The Saints won their last meeting by 18 @ Carolina and are favored at home by 9.5 with the action liking the line 63/37. Hard to fight that one and I'll take the Saints.
10. Hou @ Jac: the Jags come off a mild upset of the spiraling Giants to take on the favored Texans as a 4.5 dog. The action has it 86/14 riding the Houston wagon out with a victory. The Texans have made their year off weaker teams so this one should be another in the win column and by that margin or considerably more.
11. Buf @ Den: a makes me nervous game, mostly because of the 9.5 line. Buffalo has a terrific defense. Top five against the run and top ten against the pass. Denver needs balance leaning toward the pass, which seems like a solid way to win what should be a tougher game than most are crediting. The action is running a confident 66/44 for Denver and the points...too rich for my blood. I like the way the Broncos are playing, especially given they'll likely have to win on the road come playoff time, but I'm not comfortable going over eight. I'll take the upset on points here.
12. KC @ Arz: looks like what everyone thinks it should be. If Palmer were under center I'd be a nervous KC fan. Even so the Cardinals are a slim, pick'em half point favorite over the Chiefs. The action is split nearly even, with 51/49 leaning toward the not much of an upset. Both teams have gone from a series of wins to a two game losing streak, but I'm more concerned about the Cardinals collapse against woeful Atlanta than I am the Chiefs coming up short against Denver, especially with Charles knee feeling better this week. I like the Chiefs by two to seven, so I'll go against that marginal line/action.
13. SF @ Oak: the Niners lost a meaningful game against their arch rivals last week while Oakland was obliterated by SL. A 7.5 line in favor of SF would be insulting if they weren't playing about as out of sync on offense as they have since Harbaugh took over. Time to course correct. The action is 80/20 that happens...I'm not betting against it.
14. Sea @ Phi: game of the week. Philadelphia is a home favorite by a meager 1.5 points. The action says it might be an upset, running 53/47 toward Seattle. This is a hard one. The Eagles allow a little over 5 more points on defense but average six more than Seattle...and it's at Philly. I like the Eagles to win a very close and hard fought game, covering the spread.
15. NE @ SD: jittery game and the second best match up on the board. So, the Pats looked mortal in their loss to GB, a team without much of a defense and SD won a dig deep road game against a tough Ravens squad, so don't overlook this one just yet. The line is New England by 3.5 and the action likes it 75/25. . . but San Diego is 5-1 at home and the Pats are a less than convincing 3-3 as a road team so far. I'm looking for NE to use this as a bounce back and I'll take them, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.
16. Atl @ GB: so...the line is GB 11.5 and the action 70/30 in support of the line...which you know I hate. But...okay, I'm caving. I'll sit and sweat out the points.
:e4e:
9. Car @ NO: the Panthers have dropped seven straight and they're still in the hunt for their division.
lain: The Saints won their last meeting by 18 @ Carolina and are favored at home by 9.5 with the action liking the line 63/37. Hard to fight that one and I'll take the Saints.10. Hou @ Jac: the Jags come off a mild upset of the spiraling Giants to take on the favored Texans as a 4.5 dog. The action has it 86/14 riding the Houston wagon out with a victory. The Texans have made their year off weaker teams so this one should be another in the win column and by that margin or considerably more.
11. Buf @ Den: a makes me nervous game, mostly because of the 9.5 line. Buffalo has a terrific defense. Top five against the run and top ten against the pass. Denver needs balance leaning toward the pass, which seems like a solid way to win what should be a tougher game than most are crediting. The action is running a confident 66/44 for Denver and the points...too rich for my blood. I like the way the Broncos are playing, especially given they'll likely have to win on the road come playoff time, but I'm not comfortable going over eight. I'll take the upset on points here.
12. KC @ Arz: looks like what everyone thinks it should be. If Palmer were under center I'd be a nervous KC fan. Even so the Cardinals are a slim, pick'em half point favorite over the Chiefs. The action is split nearly even, with 51/49 leaning toward the not much of an upset. Both teams have gone from a series of wins to a two game losing streak, but I'm more concerned about the Cardinals collapse against woeful Atlanta than I am the Chiefs coming up short against Denver, especially with Charles knee feeling better this week. I like the Chiefs by two to seven, so I'll go against that marginal line/action.
13. SF @ Oak: the Niners lost a meaningful game against their arch rivals last week while Oakland was obliterated by SL. A 7.5 line in favor of SF would be insulting if they weren't playing about as out of sync on offense as they have since Harbaugh took over. Time to course correct. The action is 80/20 that happens...I'm not betting against it.
14. Sea @ Phi: game of the week. Philadelphia is a home favorite by a meager 1.5 points. The action says it might be an upset, running 53/47 toward Seattle. This is a hard one. The Eagles allow a little over 5 more points on defense but average six more than Seattle...and it's at Philly. I like the Eagles to win a very close and hard fought game, covering the spread.
15. NE @ SD: jittery game and the second best match up on the board. So, the Pats looked mortal in their loss to GB, a team without much of a defense and SD won a dig deep road game against a tough Ravens squad, so don't overlook this one just yet. The line is New England by 3.5 and the action likes it 75/25. . . but San Diego is 5-1 at home and the Pats are a less than convincing 3-3 as a road team so far. I'm looking for NE to use this as a bounce back and I'll take them, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.
16. Atl @ GB: so...the line is GB 11.5 and the action 70/30 in support of the line...which you know I hate. But...okay, I'm caving. I'll sit and sweat out the points.
:e4e:
Rams 4-0 to finish:banana:
At first blush I'd say you're only surer than not in one of those, with Washington being a thermostat of how hot a hand you'll roll into that stretch with...I don't see you getting past Seattle. The Giants should be demoralized and beaten before you get them...Arizona could go either way. I think a 2-2 split is more likely.
i know, just wishful thinking. maybe next year, right. plus the stadium thing coming up. if they leave so be it. after the cardinals left, i always dreamed of a brand new franchise anyway. who knows. when i watch arizona i still think of my hometown. at least we got a super bowl in st. louis - we're only missing the stanley cup
Hopefully the NFL won't let a city go through that twice, but you have a coach in place now that can win for you. The rest is a little bit of luck (either).
Speaking of luck, the Cowboys took care of business in Chicago. Did better offensively than I suspected (because no one suspects the Bears could play worse defensively) and start my prognostications off with a 1-0.
:mmph:You should stop listening to those people.
Head-to-head should be the first.
Of course, there are still games to be played. I'd still like to think we can control our own destiny and we don't anymore. :noid:
If they don't have the same record, there is no tie breaker to break the tie.
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