Right now it looks like a) the Cavs need to play better D than they did last night and b) they have to pay attention to the handle. Way too many turnovers on Cleveland's side of it. Thompson has to perform on the boards the way he should, Korver needs to remind someone that he's a shooter, and in general the non big three for the Cavs need to step up.
Correct any of the correctable bits and it's closer. Correct all of them and its a series. Don't and it's over early.
All that said, last year the Warriors won their first two by 15 and 33, respectively. So the sky is a long way from falling on the returning champs.
I don't think last year has any bearing on these Finals for the following reasons:
1) Kevin Durant wasn't not on the Warriors last season.
2) Last the season the Warriors were a bit drained from chasing 73 wins. This was clearly evident as they lost five playoff games entering the NBA Finals. This year they have yet to lose and they look much more relaxed and focused without the drama of chasing 73 wins.
3) Injuries. Last season Steph Curry was not 100% in the postseason due to the seriously sprained knee. He couldn't drive or "stop on a dime" like he was used to. Then in the finals the Warriors lost Andrew Bogut, their only solid big man. This postseason Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee have been solid down in the post.
Despite all this last season the Warriors did have a 3-1 series lead and had Draymond Green not been suspended for game 5 IMO the Warriors close out the Cavs in 5 games. To their credit, I give the Cavs major props for playing hard on every ball those last three games and winning the NBA title in perhaps the greatest upset in NBA Finals history. What the Cavs did was amazing and I am glad they were able to finally break Cleveland's 52 year pro sports title drought.
But this season the Warriors are heads and shoulders above the Cavs.
1) The Warriors won 16 more games than the Cavs.
2) The Warriors had an 11.6 point differential to the Cavs 3.1. The Warriors point differential is the 4th highest in NBA history. The NBA record is 12.3 by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers. When Durant was injured in March and missed 6 weeks the Warriors had an absurd 12.8 point differential. Had Durant not missed those six weeks the Warriors likely break the Lakers' record.
3) Offensive Rating- The Warriors were #1 in offensive rating. The Cavs were #3.
4) Defensive Rating- The Warriors were #2 in defensive rating just a hair behind the Spurs. The Cavs were #21 in defensive rating.
The problem the Cavs have is that their defense is just not very good compared to the Warriors offense. In the Warriors we are literally seeing one of the greatest teams in NBA history. The Cavs are not one of the greatest teams in NBA history. It's as simple as that really. If both teams play to their potential the Warriors are simply superior. And all the available objective evidence shows this.
