Chances of a Republican Winning Presidential Election

[rocketman]

Because congress doesn't reflect the popular vote, especially in a presidential election year.

When everyone votes, they vote democratic. There's only skew in the land area because democratic votes are highly concentrated in cities. Republicans tend to be more spread out. Stick gerrymandering on top of that and you have a really skewed congress.

Democrats & Republicans gerrymandered the districts until 2012 when the people voted in Prop 11 which allowed the people to vote for citizens to sit on committees for re-districting. It is still not great but, the outright carving of districts for incumbents is a bit less of a sure thing.

The problem with Republican candidates is there really are no good ones running.

I beg to differ, Dr.Ben Carson is a really good choice and a class act to boot. I hope he is able to continue to build support...it is rare to see an average, albeit very educated citizen, and a good man willing to step into the sewer of American politics to lead. I hope he has the stomach for it.

 

[Ktoyou]

Because congress doesn't reflect the popular vote, especially in a presidential election year.

When everyone votes, they vote democratic. There's only skew in the land area because democratic votes are highly concentrated in cities. Republicans tend to be more spread out. Stick gerrymandering on top of that and you have a really skewed congress.


The problem with Republican candidates is there really are no good ones running.

Sometimes, you almost make the moron list :sigh:

 

[Sitamun]

Sometimes, you almost make the moron list :sigh:

Except that he's right. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan have gone democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Granted it COULD change. But you couldn't call the two states a "lock" for the Republicans. Not by a long shot. As for the Republicans not having a good candidate, I tend to agree. The only one that may have a shot in a national election at least at this point is Jeb. I know Trump is getting all the press right now, but I can guarantee you that he doesn't have a snowballs chance.

 

[Buzzword]

Preface:
I am and have remained friends with many hardline conservatives on Facebook, in the interests of maintaining dialogue, and because we share similar hobbies and passions.

I have seen one hardline conservative after another over the past few months essentially sign a digital petition stating that they will abstain from voting in their states' primaries (if living in states with closed primaries) or vote in their states' Democratic primaries (if open), and in the general election either vote Democrat or third-party or write-in.

This seems to indicate how badly the still-overbloated crop of Republican candidates have been received, especially Trump.
...especially as Cruz and Jindal try to out-bigot, out-sexist, or just out-crazy Trump, and end up further dropping their stock in the process.


Meanwhile, the Democratic side is down to Clinton, who is owned and operated by Monsanto and refuses to commit to a position until she's reviewed the polls, and a quickly-ascending Sanders, who has stayed the course since the '60s and continues to demand the kind of change that the average American (at least, the rational average American) has been in favor of since before Reagan.

 

[TracerBullet]

A highly biased source.

The voters of Michigan?

 

[Ktoyou]

Preface:
Sanders, who has stayed the course since the '60s and continues to demand the kind of change that the average American (at least, the rational average American) has been in favor of since before Reagan.

What? You believe the average rational American wants someone to the left of McGovern, a self claimed Socialist?

 

[Ktoyou]

The voters of Michigan?

Don't play dumb, Mother Jones:mmph:

 

[Ktoyou]

Except that he's right. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan have gone democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Granted it COULD change. But you couldn't call the two states a "lock" for the Republicans. Not by a long shot. As for the Republicans not having a good candidate, I tend to agree. The only one that may have a shot in a national election at least at this point is Jeb. I know Trump is getting all the press right now, but I can guarantee you that he doesn't have a snowballs chance.

I think Pennsylvania may go Republican. It all depends on who are the two candidates.

Trump, I agree, and have said he will not stay in the race.

 

[TracerBullet]

Pennsylvania and Michigan has voted mainly Republican in congress. Why assume the state will go otherwise in a general presidential election?

as noted earlier - in the last election 58% Michigan voted for democrats for the House of Representatives.

Texas and Florida rakes out California, and Ohio takes out Illinois. With left coast and Maryland, the states of North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia will overcome these.

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio are swing states. To get the Presidency a Republican would have to carry all these states along with the rest of the swing states. A democrat just has to win one of the swing states.

 

[TracerBullet]

Don't play dumb, Mother Jones:mmph:

Yes that is where the graphic came from. Is the information incorrect? Or do you just not like the information?

 

[Ktoyou]

You choose left-wing sources. while I posted from Wikipedia, hardly a right-wing source.

 

[Ktoyou]

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio are swing states. To get the Presidency a Republican would have to carry all these states along with the rest of the swing states. A democrat just has to win one of the swing states.

Florida elected Jeb Busch/ North Carolina is hardly Democratic and it is NOT true the Democrats need only one swing state/ Ohio has more Republicans than Democrats/ same with Virginia.

 

[Ktoyou]

What IS true, many people on both sides of the isle were upset with George Bush.

 

[TracerBullet]

Florida elected Jeb Busch/ North Carolina is hardly Democratic and it is NOT true the Democrats need only one swing state/ Ohio has more Republicans than Democrats/ same with Virginia.

OK...Lets try this again.

The blue wall and the red fortress are key concepts in electoral college politics. They are based on long term voting trends and demographics.

The blue wall states are considered to be largely impossible for a republican candidate to win. Just as the red fortress states are considered largely impossible for a democrat to win. Therefor any presidential election will depend on the small handful or swing states.

Here is a standard blue wall/red fortress map, or at least the clearest I could find. For reasons i don't quite get West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa are considered swing states.

The end result is that the democrat will have 263 electoral votes and the republican 170.

TO win the white house the republican must win all of the swing states but the democrat need only win one.

 

[chrysostom]

What IS true, many people on both sides of the isle were upset with George Bush.

now they like trump
20 million of them voted for perot
I wonder how they feel now

 

[PureX]

I think Pennsylvania may go Republican. It all depends on who are the two candidates.

I live in Pa., and it is very unlikely that this state will vote for a republican president. Mostly because it is trying to recover from a disastrous republican governor. So people are not feeling kindly toward republicans here, just now.

 

[The Horn]

None of the alleged "Hillary Scandals " is true . They're all (Donald ) trumped up charges . Zero accuracy to the accusations . 100 % fabricated .
However, when it comes to lies, corruption and REAL scandals, GOP politicians make Hillary and Obama look like rank amateurs .
They have lied so many times it's impossible to count , are corrupt as hell, many being in the pay of the Koch brothers and affiliated with the Christian loonies of the religious right etc.
Despite all their "traditional values" and "family values, " rhetoric and their calling for "decency ", many of the GOP pols in Washington are serial adulterers , have athered illegitimate children, have mistresses , have had sex with underage teenagers male and female,
regularly go to prostitutes male and female, and more than a few are closeted gay men while screaming abut how evil and wicked homosexuality is in order to gain favor with the religious right .
Many have been caught playing footsie in men's rooms .

 

[King cobra]

I think Pennsylvania may go Republican.

Tebow effect??

 

[aikido7]

The GOP needs to get cracking and focus on the economy. They are being pretty strange about it. Even Trump needs some self-education.

In 2009, when Obama administration was trying to cope with the depression, the outgoing Bush already engineered a bank bailout, but the Obama team reinforced this effort with a temporary program of deficit spending, while the Federal Reserve sought to bolster the economy by buying lots of assets.

And Republicans, across the board, predicted disaster:

Deficit spending, they insisted, would cause soaring interest rates !!!

There would be widespread bankruptcy !!!

The Fed’s efforts would "debase the dollar" !!!

There would be runaway inflation !!!

Of course, none of that happened.

Interest rates stayed very low, as did inflation. But the G.O.P. never acknowledged, after six full years of being wrong about everything, that the bad things it predicted failed to take place, or showed any willingness to rethink the doctrines that led to those bad predictions. Instead, the party’s leading figures kept talking, year after year, as if the disasters they had predicted were actually happening…

Just like the rise of Isis. If Bush hadn't invaded the Middle East, if he hadn't made the agreement with Maliki to take U.S. troops out of the picture, we wouldn't be sitting around scaring ourselves about the terrorists.

 

[RevTestament]

None of the alleged "Hillary Scandals " is true . They're all (Donald ) trumped up charges . Zero accuracy to the accusations . 100 % fabricated .
However, when it comes to lies, corruption and REAL scandals, GOP politicians make Hillary and Obama look like rank amateurs .
They have lied so many times it's impossible to count , are corrupt as hell, many being in the pay of the Koch brothers and affiliated with the Christian loonies of the religious right etc.
Despite all their "traditional values" and "family values, " rhetoric and their calling for "decency ", many of the GOP pols in Washington are serial adulterers , have athered illegitimate children, have mistresses , have had sex with underage teenagers male and female,
regularly go to prostitutes male and female, and more than a few are closeted gay men while screaming abut how evil and wicked homosexuality is in order to gain favor with the religious right .
Many have been caught playing footsie in men's rooms .

I see you didn't want to quote me so, I'll help you out. Here they are again. If Trump trumped these up, he's so good maybe I'll change my mind and root for him - esp since most of them happened before he thought about running.

What I see is a bunch of whiney adjectives with zilcho facts.
And the Democratic answer is Hillary?
C'mon. She has more scandals in her skeleton closet than you have pejorative adjectives for Republicans.
travelgate
Whitewater
sex cover ups - remember "It depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is?"
military arms deals while SoS
Muslims who leave employ of Clinton foundation for Al Queda etc
Benghazi fiasco
and now private email-gate

and you want the American people to vote in at least 4 more years of this? :rotfl: