NFL 2016

[Jerry Shugart]

Hey Jerry,Your Cowboys got lucky and beat my Steelers.

Your defense is so bad the Boys scored their winning touchdown in less than the 42 seconds left in the game.

However, it's good to see the Cowboys relevant again. I'm guessing it's been hard for you Cowboy fans, considering the Cowboys have only won TWO post-season games the last 19 years. Not to mention the Cowboys haven't made it past the divisional round since 1995.

That dry spell is nothing compared to the length of the one suffered by the Steeler fans beginning when they first came into the league!

You do realize that if the Cowboys win the Super Bowl this year then they will tie the Steelers for most Super Bowl wins and they will have more Super Bowl appearances than anyone?

As usual, the Cowboys and Cowboy's players are always chasing records held by the Steelers, or a Steeler's player.

Always chasing records held by the Steelers?

You forgot that the Steelers were chasing the Boys after they won their fourth Super Bowl.

 

[Daniel1769]

What do you mean they were chasing the cowboys when they won their fourth superbowl? Steelers were the first to 4 and first to 6. And Dak's chasing Roethlisberger's rookie season stats of 13-0 as a starter and an AFC championship appearance. Followed up the next year with a Superbowl win.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Jerry Jones was born senile.

But his teams won three Super Bowls and this year's team looks very good.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

What do you mean they were chasing the cowboys when they won their fourth superbowl? Steelers were the first to 4 and first to 6. And Dak's chasing Roethlisberger's rookie season stats of 13-0 as a starter and an AFC championship appearance. Followed up the next year with a Superbowl win.

Sorry,I should have said that the Steelers were chasing the Cowboys after the Cowboys won their "fifth" Super Bowl, not their fourth.

And I do not think that the Steelers will ever match Dallas' record of having twenty consecutive winning seasons.

It is also doubtful that any of their running backs ever match Emmitt Smith's all-time rushing record.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

That offense should be better than it is. With that line and rb, placing 19th in yds on rush is weak. If they could improve that they'd be scaring people again. The defense is middle of the pack in terms of pts allowed. The team needs to help Ben more than it is at present.

Hi TH,

Which way would you go here?:

Steelers -6 1/2 vs. Giants

Thanks!

 

[Town Heretic]

Hi TH,

Which way would you go here?:

Steelers -6 1/2 vs. Giants

Thanks!

Okay, I'll walk you through how I approach a game with this one...

The line opened at 5.5 and the differential is at about 5.5...which explains the movement to coax the pts up and the betters into dangerous waters. I was comfortable at 4 and really thinking about playing that tight with the diff.

When you break down the Giants offense, they're not very good at running the ball. Only Minnesota is worse. The Steelers are one of the best against the run, meaning that on offense it has to go through Eli and by air. Putting any team in that position will tend to make the opposing defense better, which is good news for the Steelers, because their pass defense is in the lower third tier. Manning is in the midst of a three year run of 90 or better at the position, by rating. His best stretch in a career that's largely defined by the errant impression of his first four years (when he wasn't that good) offset against great SB performances. With the exception of 2011, he's been good to excellent since 2008, playing solidly for four of them and excellent for five, including the aforementioned run. In other words, he's better than most people think in the regular season. Remove those opening few years and average his stats. Pretty darn good.

On the other side of things, Pittsburgh is an upper tier passing team with a bottom middle tier running game, with more balance than the Giants. The Giants are a little worse than the Steelers at guarding against the pass but better at stopping the run. They'll need to be because the Steelers attack with balance. That means that while the Giants should contain the running game, they won't have it as easy as the Steelers, will have to stay honest at attending the line. Leading the Steelers, Ben is having an even better statistical year than Eli, though only by a little.

The Skinny: Ben has had rough outings three of four times he faced top tier passing defenses this year and eaten up teams that aren't. Bad news for the Giants. Eli has had some of his best games against the top tier teams defending the pass. Bad news for the Steelers.

Bottom line: It's one of the games I hate to call given the match ups. My inclination is to take the Steelers to win, but not by the points, with the most likely statistical outcome between four and five and a half points. I'd need a great return to gamble on more and my model does have the Giants winning a not statistically insignificant amount of the time (greater than a 30% chance). I'm taking New York with that line.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Bottom line: It's one of the games I hate to call given the match ups. My inclination is to take the Steelers to win, but not by the points, with the most likely statistical outcome between four and five and a half points. I'd need a great return to gamble on more and my model does have the Giants winning a not statistically insignificant amount of the time (greater than a 30% chance). I'm taking New York with that line.

That makes sense. I am surprised that the Steelers are favored by so many points. I am too emotionally involved in this game to be able to approach it with any degree of objectivity.

Thanks!

Go Steelers!

 

[Daniel1769]

I'm expecting the Steelers to move the ball consistently but the Giants to have a few big splash plays on offense that keeps them alive. A big TD catch by OBJ, manning making a clutch TD pass to Shepherd, etc. Without looking up the stats, though, I think the Giants have been putting up only 20-some points per game lately. If so, that won't cut it against a Steelers offense that can and has put up over 30 for a at least a few weeks in a row now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up a 31-24 Steelers win.

 

[Daniel1769]

I just read a report that says Gronk's injury may be career ending. He's 27 years old. What a shame. Love or hate the Pats, hopefully it's not true. The guy is an incredible athlete

 

[Nick M]

But his teams won three Super Bowls and this year's team looks very good.

He didn't coach anybody. And the coach that won 3, he fired. He is as big of dolt as Modell and Steinbrenner.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

He didn't coach anybody. And the coach that won 3, he fired. He is as big of dolt as Modell and Steinbrenner.

No Dallas coach won three Super Bowls. Landry won two, Johnson won two, and Switzer won one.

It was the Herschel Walker trade that propelled the Boys to their last three Super Bowl victories and it was Jerry Jones who was responsible for that trade.

 

[Town Heretic]

No Dallas coach won three Super Bowls. Landry won two, Johnson won two, and Switzer won one.

I think he's rightly giving the Switzer trophy to Johnson. Essentially, he rode the seat, but the team and approach were identical. By the next year attrition and the absence of Johnson to guide and choose began to impact the team and the years that followed were a desert.

It was the Herschel Walker trade that propelled the Boys to their last three Super Bowl victories and it was Jerry Jones who was responsible for that trade.

Actually, that trade was Johnson's brain child. One of the reasons for the split was Jone's desire to have more hands on responsibility, power he'd given to Johnson when luring him to rebuild Dallas. Johnson had put in the wind his intent to trade Walker for picks. Jimmy had determined that he'd need to move one of the few good pieces he had to get momentum in putting together a winning team. Johnson had a decent trade lined up with Cleveland when he contacted the Vikings and gave them a time definite to decide if they wanted a shot at Walker.

The rest was using the picks to choose the right men and Johnson is terrific at evaluating talent. It took a long, long time for the Cowboys to replace that talent.

If Jones had been content to be the owner of a championship team and left Jimmy in place I think you'd have had another ring or two and a lot less down time than the Cowboy faithful suffered through.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Actually, that trade was Johnson's brain child.

Yes, but the trade would have never gone through without Jones' consent. A lot of owners would never consent to trading away their teams' best player.

So Jerry Jones must be given credit for those three Super Bowl wins because he consented to the trade. Also, Jones must be given credit for those Super Bowls because as the owner he picked Johnson to be his head coach despite the fact that college coaches did not have a good track record in the pros.

And now Jones has stuck with Jason Garrett as his head coach through thick and thin and it appears that Garrett has built a team that will be good for many years to come. They have an outstanding rookie quarterback and an outstanding rookie running back. And they have three All Pro offensive linemen who are young.

So I cannot understand why Jerry Jones is put down by so many people. A lot of fans would be very happy if their owners could bring their team just one Super Bowl title. Jerry Jones has brought the Cowboys' fans three Super Bowl titles. Not a small thing!

 

[Town Heretic]

Yes, but the trade would have never gone through without Jones' consent. A lot of owners would never consent to trading away their teams' best player.

So Jerry Jones must be given credit for those three Super Bowl wins because he consented to the trade. Also, Jones must be given credit for those Super Bowls because as the owner he picked Johnson to be his head coach despite the fact that college coaches did not have a good track record in the pros.

Well, he recognized how special Johnson was and at that time the book on college transitions wasn't as awful as it has turned since. Or, I'll give him credit for initially being a smart owner, giving power to the right guy. Like Eddie in SF, he's part of the equation. But without that great choice the team hasn't managed to do anything until now. That's a very long time for an NFL staple to be basically irrelevant outside of its fan base. Around twenty years of nothing much.

So it appears that his personal connection to Johnson and gamble was most of what there is to credit. Eventually the organization found some footing, but remember that Jerry had to be argued out of Manziel as a pick for their future. So you might be crediting the wrong Jones and company for a lot of the current success.

And now Jones has stuck with Jason Garrett as his head coach through thick and thin and it appears that Garrett has built a team that will be good for many years to come. They have an outstanding rookie quarterback and an outstanding rookie running back. And they have three All Pro offensive linemen who are young.

The book on Garrett was as a real talent and up and comer. Some will argue Jones meddling retarded the evolution of that promise.

So I cannot understand why Jerry Jones is put down by so many people.

In a nutshell: he ran Landry and company without the respect they were due, ran the coach who made the Cowboys relevant again, dooming them to about twenty years of meh while he acted as general manager. That record is probably the best rebuttal to anyone presuming to suggest Johnson wasn't the singular architect of the brief revival. It appears his son may be more astute and combined with other key people in the organization argued Jones out of bringing in Johnny Football as the future face of the franchise.

Something like that.

A lot of fans would be very happy if their owners could bring their team just one Super Bowl title. Jerry Jones has brought the Cowboys' fans three Super Bowl titles. Not a small thing!

Jerry Jones is the owner equivalent of a lottery winner.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

Jerry Jones is the owner equivalent of a lottery winner.

But you even admit that initially he was a smart owner so winning the three Super Bowls was not a matter of luck but instead was a result of giving power to the right man:

I'll give him credit for initially being a smart owner, giving power to the right guy.

I also think that Jones was smart for hiring Jason Garrett and I believe that decision is going to pay off big time in the future. That had nothing to do with luck.

Even though I have been a big fan of the Cowboys since their inception in 1960 I saw that they needed new blood at the top and I realized that Tom Landry's best years were behind him. So I was happy when Jones bought the team and ever since I have had no regrets.

Three Super Bowls with a good possibility for others in the future is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[Town Heretic]

But you even admit that initially he was a smart owner so winning the three Super Bowls was not a matter of luck but instead was a result of giving power to the right man:

A savvy businessman to be sure. But I think the first run was luck. If you do it more than once it's more than luck. It took decades and an infusion of additional voices, like his son, before Jerry's team evidenced more than .500 interest.

I also think that Jones was smart for hiring Jason Garrett and I believe that decision is going to pay off big time in the future. That had nothing to do with luck.

I don't think it's luck either. A lot of people wanted Garrett. Jones promised and paid him to wait his turn.

Even though I have been a big fan of the Cowboys since their inception in 1960 I saw that they needed new blood at the top and I realized that Tom Landry's best years were behind him. So I was happy when Jones bought the team and ever since I have had no regrets.

I think most Cowboy fans would agree with you, though many would take exception to how he went about it.

Three Super Bowls with a good possibility for others in the future is nothing to sneeze at.

Jimmy Johnson says, "Gesundheit." More seriously, it takes a confluence of things to create a dynasty. An owner who is smart enough or lucky enough to find the right coach. A coach who can maximize talent and find the right people to grease the rails of the machinery and a Gm or delegated front office with an eye for talent. Is Kraft a football savant? Or did he just luck out with Bill and a front office that is good at picking talent (even before Bill, but arguably better after). He made a good hire, but there was nothing in it to tell him what was coming. And he loved Bledsoe. Injury and an insistent Belichick put Brady under center.

What we can say is that after that long drought the Cowboys appear to have put together a team that understands talent, a coach that's getting mileage out of it, and an owner smart enough to see the need and (as with Johnny) trust the people he's put together to do the job...a thing he wasn't doing for a long time. Who knows what you might have had if it hadn't taken that time. Maybe New England before New England.

 

[Town Heretic]

Meanwhile, I'm having a peculiar week in terms of prognostication. Started off 0-1 with Dallas incapable of making the 3.5 :mmph:

Atlanta needs to find another couple of points after spotting the Chiefs too many or I'm dropping that one.

Calling Chicago to rally without Cutler over the hapless Niners was no real stretch.

Likewise taking the Bengals to right against a favored but floundering Philly.

Denver over Jacksonville is looking good by more than the 5.5.

Detroit upsetting the Saints is my feel good call of the week.

After last week, Green Bay over the star crossed Texans was another easy call.

New England over the Rams, even with that line, seemed inevitable.

Late games...I'm gambling that Buffalo will keep Oakland closer than 3.5, my biggest gamble on the day.

I like the Giants to upset the line against Pittsburgh (5.5).

I'm taking Washington to upend the favored Cardinals on the road.

I like Tampa to upset SD in a close game and Seattle to bounce back and put Carolina out of their misery.

 

[Nihilo]

I just read a report that says Gronk's injury may be career ending. He's 27 years old. What a shame. Love or hate the Pats, hopefully it's not true. The guy is an incredible athlete

And incredibly injury-prone. Nobody gets a pass for injuries, and nor should they. Every play someone gets injured, there are usually 21 players who manage to avoid it.

 

[Nick M]

It was the Herschel Walker trade.

That is Jimmy Johnson. The Cowboys won 3 in 4 seasons, one in spite of Switzer, not because of him.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

That is Jimmy Johnson. The Cowboys won 3 in 4 seasons, one in spite of Switzer, not because of him.

Who hired Jimmy Johnson?