Quetzal
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Denver did work for ya! Brock had a rough night returning to Denver. I was impressed with the offensive output of the Broncos and they took it to the Texans last night.
NFL 2016
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
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I thought the final score would be around 10 pts, say 14-24, so Denver did a little better and Houston a little worse. The Texans need to simplify and tailor the offense to their qb's strengths. I think its swallowing him at this point in his young career.
10 and 5? I'll take it. There is so much mediocrity at present that any number of contests have been coin flips (see: Was vs Det). If I was actually betting I'd probably take on half the games any given and through in a best guess or two at the edge.
Quetzal
New member
I'll be honest, not looking forward to next week.
Jax @ Tenn?
KC @ Indy?
Det @ Hou?
NYJ @ Cle?
:vomit:
Depends on the line.
Espn hasn't put out theirs yet. It depends. Looks like Ten is 3.5 and I'm fine with that one. The public likes KC and three/the sims like it the other way...I'm leaning Chiefs at 3 and maybe more. Over 6? Nah. Houston is a concensus 2.5 fav so far. I'm torn like the ol proverbial sweater, but my inclination is Houston at a fg or under. The Jets should win, but I wouldn't like a line that's bigger than 3.
Arthur Brain
Well-known member
I'm so, so glad I didn't actually watch it. But betting with Arz is starting to look like laying money on Baltimore (shudders).
Well, I'm still 9-4 and all I need is for Denver to be Denver tonight and it's another pretty good week in the books.
Seriously though, a tie that looks like an interesting soccer game? Really.lain: I bet that really helped the ol tv ratings. :smack:
You mean proper football?
249 pass attempts and zero picks.
It's called cheating.
Chuckle smilie.
Had a decent week last week, though my New York trip prevented me from putting out my normal advance. I'll try to get to this week, if I have time after playing catch-up with this week's work.
Tonight sees Atlanta visiting the Bucs with the Falcons enjoying a 3.5 pt fav. status. Every available metric has Atlanta covering from between 4 to 7 pts. So I'm with the overdog on this one. :thumb:
Last week, I took:
Ten.
Cin. :mmph:
NE:
Cle: (on the .5)
Hou.
KC
Oak
Sea :mmph:
Car
Den.
Atl :mmph:
Dal
Min :mmph:
So, 9 - 4, which I can live with given who saw the Vikes losing to Chicago or another dastardly tie? Meh. Good enough to keep me solidly in the 90s, percentile wise, over at ESPN. :thumb:
Tonight sees Atlanta visiting the Bucs with the Falcons enjoying a 3.5 pt fav. status. Every available metric has Atlanta covering from between 4 to 7 pts. So I'm with the overdog on this one. :thumb:
Last week, I took:
Ten.
Cin. :mmph:
NE:
Cle:
(on the .5)Hou.
KC
Oak
Sea :mmph:
Car
Den.
Atl :mmph:
Dal
Min :mmph:
So, 9 - 4, which I can live with given who saw the Vikes losing to Chicago or another dastardly tie? Meh. Good enough to keep me solidly in the 90s, percentile wise, over at ESPN. :thumb:
Getting back with so much to do after the New York trip just didn't leave me time for much this week.
So far...
Well, I called Atlanta a post ago to go 1-0.
I took Dallas to get it done against Cle. 2-0.
Called Det to keep it closer. Didn't see them winning, but got the upset anyway. 3-0
Took Jacksonville to stay closer than 9 pts with KC. 4-0
Thought the Jets would keep it to a fg, but Mia got me on the half point. :mmph: 4-1
Took the Giants at home against a suddenly unsteady Eagles. 5-1
Got burned by a puzzling Steelers team. :mmph: 5-2
Lost by the half point for the second time by leaning on Carolina :mmph: 5-3
Before the Saints helped out by having one of those. 6-3
I won't pretend I thought my Colts would win, but my lack of confidence in GB making the spread paid off. 7-3
SD did just enough to keep a good week going. 8-3
I need the Broncos and Seahawks to cover and I'm golden. A decent week no matter.
So far...
Well, I called Atlanta a post ago to go
1-0.I took Dallas to get it done against Cle.
2-0.Called Det to keep it closer. Didn't see them winning, but got the upset anyway.
3-0Took Jacksonville to stay closer than 9 pts with KC.
4-0Thought the Jets would keep it to a fg, but Mia got me on the half point. :mmph: 4-1
Took the Giants at home against a suddenly unsteady Eagles.
5-1Got burned by a puzzling Steelers team. :mmph: 5-2
Lost by the half point for the second time by leaning on Carolina :mmph: 5-3
Before the Saints helped out by having one of those.
6-3I won't pretend I thought my Colts would win, but my lack of confidence in GB making the spread paid off.
7-3SD did just enough to keep a good week going.
8-3I need the Broncos and Seahawks to cover and I'm golden. A decent week no matter.
With Denver losing I just changed my prediction tonight and I'm taking Buffalo to keep it closer than 7.5 or to win outright and give me a 9-4 week. :shocked:
View attachment 24947
This happened 27 days ago.....the Steelers have lost every game, and been outscored 78-48 since then.
:think:
:chuckle:
Wrapped up the week 9-4 as Buffalo came through for me, if barely, keeping it just under the 7.5 spread. :thumb:
Okay, now we've gotten that presidential nonsense out of the way, back to what really matters...
Week 10
1. Cle @ Bal: the NFL serves up a "Wha?" beginning to the week. Or, get ready to watch two of the worst offenses this year slug it out in this certain to be epic battle of the blands. The b-l-i-s-t-e-r-i-n-g 18.7 avg per game put out by the Browns is only outshone by the "don't touch that stove" hot 19.3 pace of the Ravens...and nearly every other NFL team.lain: On the defensive side, Baltimore fields a top ten unit (7th against the pass and 2nd against the rush) while Cleveland...not so much. 275 a game in the air and nearly 150 on the ground (only "topped" by the most woeful 49ers).
The line is 10.5 for Baltimore. The metrics have it between 14 and 23 pts, assuming Baltimore can score that many against, essentially, a scrimmage defense. I'll take Baltimore and wonder if this one will go 14 - 31 or 10- 24. :rip: And to think, the NFL isn't pulling in great averages this year...much like the teams we're being forced to watch in prime time.
2. Atl @ Phi: a pick'em .5 is the Eagle's line of confidence. This is a tough one, obviously. Atlanta is the 2nd best team at moving the ball in the air and the 10th best rushing team. Philly is 28th and 17th, respectively. Defensively? Philly is 6th at defending the pass and 18th defending the run. Atlanta is next to last against the pass, but 7th against the run.
That's the problem. The Falcons are potent, but the Eagles are one of the best at taking away the pass. The Falcons should be able to run on Philly. On the other side, as bad as Atlanta is at stopping the pass, they're about on par with the Eagles passing game, meaning Philly will need to run and Atlanta has a stout run stop.
That should translate to a lower scoring game than normal, hence the micro line...I'm going to take Atlanta in a snoozer.
tbc
Week 10
1. Cle @ Bal: the NFL serves up a "Wha?" beginning to the week. Or, get ready to watch two of the worst offenses this year slug it out in this certain to be epic battle of the blands. The b-l-i-s-t-e-r-i-n-g 18.7 avg per game put out by the Browns is only outshone by the "don't touch that stove" hot 19.3 pace of the Ravens...and nearly every other NFL team.
lain: On the defensive side, Baltimore fields a top ten unit (7th against the pass and 2nd against the rush) while Cleveland...not so much. 275 a game in the air and nearly 150 on the ground (only "topped" by the most woeful 49ers).The line is 10.5 for Baltimore. The metrics have it between 14 and 23 pts, assuming Baltimore can score that many against, essentially, a scrimmage defense. I'll take Baltimore and wonder if this one will go 14 - 31 or 10- 24. :rip: And to think, the NFL isn't pulling in great averages this year...much like the teams we're being forced to watch in prime time.
2. Atl @ Phi: a pick'em .5 is the Eagle's line of confidence. This is a tough one, obviously. Atlanta is the 2nd best team at moving the ball in the air and the 10th best rushing team. Philly is 28th and 17th, respectively. Defensively? Philly is 6th at defending the pass and 18th defending the run. Atlanta is next to last against the pass, but 7th against the run.
That's the problem. The Falcons are potent, but the Eagles are one of the best at taking away the pass. The Falcons should be able to run on Philly. On the other side, as bad as Atlanta is at stopping the pass, they're about on par with the Eagles passing game, meaning Philly will need to run and Atlanta has a stout run stop.
That should translate to a lower scoring game than normal, hence the micro line...I'm going to take Atlanta in a snoozer.
tbc
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We also have an exciting month of college football now that campaigns are over. I am tired of talking about it. The short version of the winner of Michigan-OSU is in. Michigan looks as good as Ohio State to me. Dominating. Alabama's defense is the best they have had yet. Smothering. And Clemson is only a notch behind the other 3, but have a one man wrecking crew at QB. That works in college.
Steelers are -2.5 favorites at home against the Cowboys.
Take the Steelers.
Since 2009, the Steelers have lost 15 games they were heavily favored (mostly on the road) to teams that had a combined winning percentage of .180%. However, the Steelers have had an overall .581% winning percentage during the same span.
For whatever reason, the Steelers beat good teams at home, but lose to bad teams on the road.
So.....take the Steelers -2.5 at home against the red-hot Cowboys.
On a side note....the reason Chuck Noll and Bill Belichick each have 4 rings is because they never, ever lost to bad teams when they were heavily favored.
Woo-hoo! A good start for the week. Should be able to get my picks out this week. Between New York and family gatherings the last couple just haven't been in the cards.
Week 10 so far...
So I called Baltimore here early to go 1-0. But really, who didn't call Baltimore?
Took Philly in a pick'em, half point contest to go 2-0
Tampa kept my pick'em streak alive. 3-0
Took Denver in the surprising 1.5 upset, though the ending is something Saint's fans will be complaining loudly about. 4-0
I took the Titans to keep it close, but it looks like they're going to do a lot better than that and take me, provisionally, to 5-0
Carolina was a 2.5 fav, but I thought KC could keep it close or win outright in what seemed more of another pick'em to me. 6-0
Took the Rams for no real reason other than I lacked confidence in the marginally favored Jests. 7-0
I couldn't see Was being favored over Minnesota. Now I can. 7-1 :mmph:
I liked Houston in a tight contest with Jacksonville. 8-1
Remaining games:
I like SD over Miami, [EDIT] but as goes Rivers. Surprising falter at home while Tannehill showed flashes and played smart ball. Ah, well. 8-2 :mmph:
Despite fair warning by Tet I'm taking Dallas over Pittsburgh. [EDIT] Doesn't matter if Dallas wins. Pittsburgh won't cover. 9-2 Amazing finish as both defenses collapse down the stretch. Big Ben pulls a Marino to go up by five with forty something seconds to go and Dallas gets it down the field and scores, leaving nine seconds on the clock. I think this one is safe.
I like Arz to handle SF. [EDIT] The Cardinals win, but wanly, dropping the line. 9-3 :mmph:
I'm looking for New England to take care of business against a stout Seattle defense.
EDIT: well, a good, close contest. I think the lesson from it and from most of the games for a while now is that there's just not a dominant team out there. New England still looks like the cream of the crop on the AFC side and you can make an argument for Dallas on the NFC, but nobody reads like a certainty.
If Denver plays up to their defensive potential they can beat anyone. Seattle is capable. So are a smattering of teams. :think:
Anyway, the Pats let me down and that takes me to 9-4, with my upset special for tonight potentially giving me another solid 10-4 against the line. So come on Cats!
I'm taking Cin. to upset the marginally favored Giants in the Monday night game.
Week 10 so far...
So I called Baltimore here early to go 1-0. But really, who didn't call Baltimore?
Took Philly in a pick'em, half point contest to go 2-0
Tampa kept my pick'em streak alive. 3-0
Took Denver in the surprising 1.5 upset, though the ending is something Saint's fans will be complaining loudly about. 4-0
I took the Titans to keep it close, but it looks like they're going to do a lot better than that and take me, provisionally, to 5-0
Carolina was a 2.5 fav, but I thought KC could keep it close or win outright in what seemed more of another pick'em to me. 6-0
Took the Rams for no real reason other than I lacked confidence in the marginally favored Jests. 7-0
I couldn't see Was being favored over Minnesota. Now I can. 7-1 :mmph:
I liked Houston in a tight contest with Jacksonville. 8-1
Remaining games:
I like SD over Miami, [EDIT] but as goes Rivers. Surprising falter at home while Tannehill showed flashes and played smart ball. Ah, well. 8-2 :mmph:
Despite fair warning by Tet I'm taking Dallas over Pittsburgh. [EDIT] Doesn't matter if Dallas wins. Pittsburgh won't cover. 9-2
Amazing finish as both defenses collapse down the stretch. Big Ben pulls a Marino to go up by five with forty something seconds to go and Dallas gets it down the field and scores, leaving nine seconds on the clock. I think this one is safe.I like Arz to handle SF. [EDIT] The Cardinals win, but wanly, dropping the line. 9-3 :mmph:
I'm looking for New England to take care of business against a stout Seattle defense.
EDIT: well, a good, close contest. I think the lesson from it and from most of the games for a while now is that there's just not a dominant team out there. New England still looks like the cream of the crop on the AFC side and you can make an argument for Dallas on the NFC, but nobody reads like a certainty.
If Denver plays up to their defensive potential they can beat anyone. Seattle is capable. So are a smattering of teams. :think:
Anyway, the Pats let me down and that takes me to 9-4, with my upset special for tonight potentially giving me another solid 10-4 against the line. So come on Cats!
I'm taking Cin. to upset the marginally favored Giants in the Monday night game.
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Zeke Elliot is awesome. Dak Prescott is pretty good, but I think he needs ot just not crash the Ferrari. I would leave him in over Romo. Which is too bad, but it is a business. Romo put up really good numbers for a bad team for a long time.
Tellalie loses again......He's in denial...hmphhhh....
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