uh oh canada :(


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Hall of Fame
The people of India would disagree, at this point. In fact, the variant there (a result of viral opportunism in uncontrolled reproduction) seems to be bypassing waning immunity from past infections from earlier versions of Covid. It is, and will continue to be, a humanitarian disaster.
I'm going to go out on a limb and claim we aren't being told the whole story. The reason this makes sense is because COVID really should have devastated India a great deal more in 2020, and we still haven't been given the information to figure out why that happened. So I'll have to stick to where we have information, namely the US, and repeat a post because it's kind of a "bottom line" view that trumps all the speculation about effectiveness of masks, lockdowns, and social distancing, and also the expertise of people that run ICU's:

The numbers are in. There were about 470k excess deaths in 2020 according to the CDC. And also according to the CDC about 340k of those excess deaths were caused by COVID.

That means about 130k excess deaths were caused by the reaction to COVID.

Would those 130K excess people have died (also note: the majority of those 130k people were young) if we had treated the pandemic as a bad flu year? Absolutely not.

When I say I care more about people that you do, it isn't just a debate tactic. It's a real, objectively measurable action demonstrated in this very post.

And here is some speculation for you: the vaccine will be shown to have done a FANTASTIC job because... the pandemic was over a long time ago.

way 2 go

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On Sunday morning Pastor Artur Pawlowski reported that someone tried to burn his house down on Saturday night.

Last Saturday, Artur Pawlowski, the Pastor of the Cave of Adullam Church in Calgary, Alberta, Canada was swarmed by police and arrested after holding an “illegal” church service on Saturday.

You may remember Pawlowski as the brave pastor who shouted down police officers who interrupted his church service during Holy Week.


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onterible science predictions wrong as usual

View attachment 1037
Where, exactly, did you get this? I am particularly interested in the "In ANY SCENARIO...." bit.

Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the group of experts that advises the Ontario government on its pandemic response said this on April 16 (I added emphasis):

Under any scenario, ICU admissions are expected to top 800 in the coming weeks. With only the current measures in place, admissions will still likely exceed 1,000

This statement directly contradicts your chart as it clearly indicates the following:

- it is possible that ICU admissions will be as low as 800 "in the coming weeks"
- it is possible that even if current measures are not amped up, admissions might not exceed 1000.


Well-known member
What is your point, really? In January, Trudeau said that he is not considering such passports. Yes, he correctly pointed out that they would have divisive effects. But, given the games you guys play, I hasten to add what should be obvious: the fact that vaccine passports will have negative effects does not mean that, on balance, they are not a good idea.

It seems like this a nothing burger - in Jan he was leaning against passports, now he appears to be leaning the other way.

In the black and white world of stark "either / or" truths that many here seem to inhabit, such a shift in position may seem like a moral transgression.

But reality is more complicated - new data comes to light and what seemed like a bad ideas once may turn out to be a good idea after all.

I remind you that in these forums we often hear people criticizing science because it "changes its mind". Well, changing your mind is what sometimes makes sense if your head is not firmly planted in the sand.


Well-known member
Thanks for the information. You are correct - this one organization's predictions turned out to be overly pessimistic. But, remember, I presented another source that made a prediction that turned out to be more accurate.

But what is your fundamental point? I suggest that most experts would agree that predicting what will happen under different scenarios is hard to do. It would therefore be misleading to argue that some incorrect predictions undermine the credibility of the medical establishment. Some things are simply very hard to predict. And in such cases, when lives are on the line, erring on side of caution makes sense.

But when we look to the past and the present, all the uncertainty associated with prediction disappears.

In short, it is a fact, not a prediction, that Covid has killed a lot of people and pushed the health care system to the brink.