NASA history vs models

The Barbarian

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Ah, the "it gets cold in the winter,so climate change is bunk" story. Weather is not climate.

But 2017 was the second hottest year on record, with 2016 the hottest year. The last 10 years? These are the temperature anomalies for the December-November years:

2007 66
2008 51
2009 63
2010 72
2011 58
2012 62
2013 63
2014 72
1015 84
2016 101
2017 89

Here's the plot and the regression line, with 2007 set as year 1:
1515161986632_linearRegressionResults.png

Best-fit values
Slope 3.821 ± 0.9780
Y-intercept 53.40 ± 5.976
X-intercept -13.98
1/Slope 0.2617

95% Confidence Intervals
Slope 1.508 to 6.134
Y-intercept 39.27 to 67.53
X-intercept -43.74 to -6.556

Goodness of Fit
R square 0.6856
Sy.x 8.748

Looks like the models are doing a pretty good job of predicting climate, doesn't it?
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
Ah, the "it gets cold in the winter,so climate change is bunk" story. Weather is not climate.

But 2017 was the second hottest year on record, with 2016 the hottest year. The last 10 years? These are the temperature anomalies for the December-November years:

2007 66
2008 51
2009 63
2010 72
2011 58
2012 62
2013 63
2014 72
1015 84
2016 101
2017 89

Here's the plot and the regression line, with 2007 set as year 1:
1515161986632_linearRegressionResults.png

Best-fit values
Slope 3.821 ± 0.9780
Y-intercept 53.40 ± 5.976
X-intercept -13.98
1/Slope 0.2617

95% Confidence Intervals
Slope 1.508 to 6.134
Y-intercept 39.27 to 67.53
X-intercept -43.74 to -6.556

Goodness of Fit
R square 0.6856
Sy.x 8.748

Looks like the models are doing a pretty good job of predicting climate, doesn't it?





Not at all, and then the crisis they proclaim is a whopping 0.5 increase.

All you have to do is look at the N. America map there to see that the coolinginstances are about 2:1 that of heating.




btw, I think you have missed what the map was saying. Red means there is a 10 year average and that that location recorded an increase. Blue means " " " " a decrease. You put 66 for 2007. That does not say 66 hotter nor cooler, so it is only an average temperature, and an anomaly would be the difference from that, but you did not show that.

You did not provide a source.
 

The Barbarian

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Not at all, and then the crisis they proclaim is a whopping 0.5 increase.

Yep. One degree makes a huge difference in climate.

All you have to do is look at the N. America map there to see that the coolinginstances are about 2:1 that of heating.

Well, let's take a look, then:
CS_Net_Change_in_Ann_Temp_12910_v11.png


I think I see your problem. Reddish colors mean warmer, not colder.

btw, I think you have missed what the map was saying. Red means there is a 10 year average and that that location recorded an increase. Blue means " " " " a decrease.

So on the map, I see almost entirely warmer. Notice in the past 10 years, every region of the country got warmer, although the rise wasn't very high in the Northwest. (to see if it want up or down in the last 10 see two bars to the right) BTW, this map does not include the three highest temperatures on record, that occured after the first decade of the new millinium, so it's actually greater than it shows here.

You put 66 for 2007. That does not say 66 hotter nor cooler,

In science, negative anomalies are preceded with a minus sign. Thought you knew. Just so there's no confusion, do you know what the anomaly actually means in degrees?

so it is only an average temperature, and an anomaly would be the difference from that

That's what it is an anomaly from a baseline. Global warming anomalies are set to be compared to a reference period. In this case,NASA's GISS data,it's the 1951-1980 period.

but you did not show that.

Thought you were familiar with the subject. Sorry about that.

You did not provide a source.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Sorry, I presumed way too much for you.
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
Yep. One degree makes a huge difference in climate.



Well, let's take a look, then:
CS_Net_Change_in_Ann_Temp_12910_v11.png


I think I see your problem. Reddish colors mean warmer, not colder.



So on the map, I see almost entirely warmer. Notice in the past 10 years, every region of the country got warmer, although the rise wasn't very high in the Northwest. (to see if it want up or down in the last 10 see two bars to the right) BTW, this map does not include the three highest temperatures on record, that occured after the first decade of the new millinium, so it's actually greater than it shows here.



In science, negative anomalies are preceded with a minus sign. Thought you knew. Just so there's no confusion, do you know what the anomaly actually means in degrees?



That's what it is an anomaly from a baseline. Global warming anomalies are set to be compared to a reference period. In this case,NASA's GISS data,it's the 1951-1980 period.



Thought you were familiar with the subject. Sorry about that.



https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Sorry, I presumed way too much for you.





The subject of this thread was the NASA map posted at FOX. It was not some other map which, like USA TODAY's denial of cold weather this week, is probably more manipulated data.

I'm sorry, but what they said to look for was entirely understandable: The red meant hotter than the 10 year average and the blue meant colder. I have no idea what you are measuring or looking for.

I still have no idea what your list of years and temps means, nor in relation to what. it reminds me of the time when I talked to a UW Ph.D. candidate who was doing a survey of upper atmosphere nitrogen deposits at a monitor in Olympic National Park. I have hiked in the area where the monitor was for 40 years. Her email was on the unit.

Q: I have hiked here for 40 years. What is the ordinary impact I should see--not dust on your monitor--on the plants around me?

A: There isn't anything the ordinary person will be able to see.



Do you wonder why people are skeptical of modern science?
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
The "crisis":
Yep. One degree makes a huge difference in climate.



I can also abuse English! What HUGE DIFFERENCE? I have been here on earth since the 50s. What HUGE DIFFERENCE? The London Fog? The deaths in France in 2003 or so? One offs.

I think this is the best chart in favor of "the crisis" is at the thread next door ("If climate change is...") and it shows changes in temperature in the 0.0000ths of degrees, but the chart looks like radical things have happened! Pretty corny.
 

Jonahdog

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The "crisis":
Yep. One degree makes a huge difference in climate.



I can also abuse English! What HUGE DIFFERENCE? I have been here on earth since the 50s. What HUGE DIFFERENCE? The London Fog? The deaths in France in 2003 or so? One offs.

I think this is the best chart in favor of "the crisis" is at the thread next door ("If climate change is...") and it shows changes in temperature in the 0.0000ths of degrees, but the chart looks like radical things have happened! Pretty corny.

Oh my, personal experience over 50-60 years. Well, that's settled.
 

The Barbarian

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The subject of this thread was the NASA map posted at FOX. It was not some other map which, like USA TODAY's denial of cold weather this week, is probably more manipulated data.

FOX is the master of manipulated data. What you're seeing there is almost always misrepresented. It's their signature. "Oh, it got cold in the winter, so there's no global warming." They never get tired of that one.

On the other hand, the real map is the summary of climate change over decades. As you see, FOX's map was an attempt to hide the fact that the United States (like the rest of the world) has been warming at an increasing rate over the last few decades.

I still have no idea what your list of years and temps means, nor in relation to what.

That's what it is an anomaly from a baseline. Global warming anomalies are set to be compared to a reference period. In this case,NASA's GISS data,it's the 1951-1980 period. It's in increments of 0.01 degrees Celsius. To get the change in degrees F, divide by 100 and multiply by 1.8. So last year, the anomaly was about 2 degrees above the reference period, which is a lot more than Edward Teller had predicted a half-century ago. Even then, he had realized that a few degrees would have catastrophic effects.


it reminds me of the time when I talked to a UW Ph.D. candidate who was doing a survey of upper atmosphere nitrogen deposits at a monitor in Olympic National Park. I have hiked in the area where the monitor was for 40 years. Her email was on the unit.

Q: I have hiked here for 40 years. What is the ordinary impact I should see--not dust on your monitor--on the plants around me?

A: There isn't anything the ordinary person will be able to see.

Depends on what kind of nitrogen compound. Nitrogen, being a gas, doesn't form deposits on sensors. However:

The acid rain scourge of the '70s and '80s that killed trees and fish and even dissolved parts of statues on Washington, D.C.'s National Mall is back. But unlike the first round, in which sulfur emissions from power plants mixed with rain to create sulfuric acid, the current problem stems primarily from nitrogen emissions mixed with rain to create nitric acid.

"Both are strong acids, and both create serious problems for the environment," says William Schlesinger, president of the Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, N.Y. Acid rain degrades cement and limestone as well as leaches critical soil nutrients, which injures plants. It also liberates toxic minerals from the ground that flow into stream runoff where they can kill fish.

Sulfur emissions from power plants were one of the primary motivations for the U.S.'s Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which set reduction targets for both sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). However, whereas sulfur dioxide emissions decreased almost 70 percent from 1990 to 2008, emissions of one NOx—nitrogen dioxide (NO2)—went down only 35 percent for that same period, and amendment targets have yet to be made, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). "This comes as scientists have grown increasingly aware of the consequences of the remaining nitric acid deposition," Schlesinger says.

Schlesinger is one of a number of scientists calling attention to the problem. On June 8 the Integrated Nitrogen Committee of the EPA's Science Advisory board held a public teleconference to discuss a draft report of possible solutions to nitrogen problems, including acid rain. A final report is pending.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/acid-rain-caused-by-nitrogen-emissions/

We can see it now. But there's hope. Controlling sulfur emissions greatly reduced the damage from acids based on sulfur. So it's likely that we can also control the damage from nitrogen-based acids.

Do you wonder why people are skeptical of modern science?

No, I don't. Ignorance of basic science is rampant in the United States, partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.

And therein is the answer. People have convinced themselves that if they just deny a problem, they won't have to face the consequences of denial. What, if anything to do about these problems is a political issue, and entirely separate from the fact that we are creating them.

If that could be realized, we'd have made a huge advance.
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
Why would you think that?



Dude...North America isn't a hemisphere.






the map took a sample week and showed 2:1 cooling. The climate crisis people look at that and say it is cherry picking. They make your head hurt.

You are right about the grammar of N. American hemisphere. I should have written north American hemisphere. Do you see the point now?
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
FOX is the master of manipulated data. What you're seeing there is almost always misrepresented. It's their signature. "Oh, it got cold in the winter, so there's no global warming." They never get tired of that one.

On the other hand, the real map is the summary of climate change over decades. As you see, FOX's map was an attempt to hide the fact that the United States (like the rest of the world) has been warming at an increasing rate over the last few decades.



That's what it is an anomaly from a baseline. Global warming anomalies are set to be compared to a reference period. In this case,NASA's GISS data,it's the 1951-1980 period. It's in increments of 0.01 degrees Celsius. To get the change in degrees F, divide by 100 and multiply by 1.8. So last year, the anomaly was about 2 degrees above the reference period, which is a lot more than Edward Teller had predicted a half-century ago. Even then, he had realized that a few degrees would have catastrophic effects.




Depends on what kind of nitrogen compound. Nitrogen, being a gas, doesn't form deposits on sensors. However:

The acid rain scourge of the '70s and '80s that killed trees and fish and even dissolved parts of statues on Washington, D.C.'s National Mall is back. But unlike the first round, in which sulfur emissions from power plants mixed with rain to create sulfuric acid, the current problem stems primarily from nitrogen emissions mixed with rain to create nitric acid.

"Both are strong acids, and both create serious problems for the environment," says William Schlesinger, president of the Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, N.Y. Acid rain degrades cement and limestone as well as leaches critical soil nutrients, which injures plants. It also liberates toxic minerals from the ground that flow into stream runoff where they can kill fish.

Sulfur emissions from power plants were one of the primary motivations for the U.S.'s Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which set reduction targets for both sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). However, whereas sulfur dioxide emissions decreased almost 70 percent from 1990 to 2008, emissions of one NOx—nitrogen dioxide (NO2)—went down only 35 percent for that same period, and amendment targets have yet to be made, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). "This comes as scientists have grown increasingly aware of the consequences of the remaining nitric acid deposition," Schlesinger says.

Schlesinger is one of a number of scientists calling attention to the problem. On June 8 the Integrated Nitrogen Committee of the EPA's Science Advisory board held a public teleconference to discuss a draft report of possible solutions to nitrogen problems, including acid rain. A final report is pending.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/acid-rain-caused-by-nitrogen-emissions/

We can see it now. But there's hope. Controlling sulfur emissions greatly reduced the damage from acids based on sulfur. So it's likely that we can also control the damage from nitrogen-based acids.



No, I don't. Ignorance of basic science is rampant in the United States, partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.

And therein is the answer. People have convinced themselves that if they just deny a problem, they won't have to face the consequences of denial. What, if anything to do about these problems is a political issue, and entirely separate from the fact that we are creating them.

If that could be realized, we'd have made a huge advance.





Barbarian wrote:
partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.

where do you get conceptions like this? Evolution and climate change are so important in most school districts that they are religions. There are 3rd graders on projects to save the planet.

I work as an oxygen tech, and concentrator's nitrogen canisters sometimes fail. When they fail the gritty white nitrogen powder gets spread all around inside the concentrator. Is your statement that nitrogen is a gas part of the scientific ignorance you are concerned about?

I only told you half the reality of the upper atmosphere monitor. That site has been used that way for only the past 5 years. Before that, for 50 years, there was an ITT photographic paper mill plant down below. I concur that the aroma of warm plastic that sometimes wafted hence was unpleasant. However, the environmental scientists were certain that the Olympics would be raped by the drift of this. That same monitor site was located there to collect data. Nothing happened. It's a nothing burger. There is nothing anyone can find that demonstrates the rape and devastation and destruction that was supposed to occur. It really should have, because the downdrift theory did make logistical sense: if any place was going to illustrate the problem, it should have been there--10 miles away and every particle from the mill would get stuck on that side of the mountain range. That watershed (mostly Morse Creek) should have turned orange from dead hem-fir and cedar. Nothing happened.

In the end, the market changed the demand for photographic paper anyway and the rail line ended in 1987 due to a collapse near one of the rivers, so it was all packed up.

Climate change is a massive government strategy developed by transformational Marxism to end the liberty of the West which is rooted in Judeo-Christian doctrine.
 

rexlunae

New member
the map took a sample week and showed 2:1 cooling. The climate crisis people look at that and say it is cherry picking. They make your head hurt.

Do you understand what cherry picking is? Because it invalidates your whole argument.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/brenda-ekwu...ayson-and-climate-change-whats-the-connection

You are right about the grammar of N. American hemisphere. I should have written north American hemisphere. Do you see the point now?

No. "north American" still doesn't represent a hemisphere, and the map you posted doesn't cover a hemisphere. A hemisphere is half of the planet. It can be northern, southern, eastern, western, or even less commonly a custom slice through the middle of the planet, but using it in relation to a continent seems pretty meaningless to me.
 

The Barbarian

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Barbarian observes:
Partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.

where do you get conceptions like this?

After I retired, I became a science teacher, and I have spent considerable time reviewing textbooks and curricula. So I know how bad some districts can be.

Evolution and climate change are so important in most school districts that they are religions.

If you think so, you have no idea what goes on in public schools. Trend is to care about the 3Rs, and hope everything else works out. Evolution is generally taught, if at all, in a very superficial manner until high school biology classes and even then, not very well.

I've had meetings with high school biology teachers, and they had a dismaying lack of understanding of evolutionary theory and the evidence for it.

I work as an oxygen tech, and concentrator's nitrogen canisters sometimes fail. When they fail the gritty white nitrogen powder gets spread all around inside the concentrator.

It would have to be remarkably cold:

The temperature of liquid nitrogen can readily be reduced to its freezing point 63 K (−210 °C; −346 °F) by placing it in a vacuum chamber pumped by a vacuum pump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_nitrogen

Is your statement that nitrogen is a gas part of the scientific ignorance you are concerned about?

At standard temperature and pressure, two atoms of the element bind to form dinitrogen, a colourless and odorless diatomic gas with the formula N2. Dinitrogen forms about 78% of Earth's atmosphere, making it the most abundant uncombined element.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen

I don't know what the dust you're talking about would be, but it certainly isn't nitrogen. Maybe a compound containing nitrogen? Would you mind looking it up and letting me know?
 

The Barbarian

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Barbarian observes:
Partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.

where do you get conceptions like this?

After I retired, I became a science teacher, and I have spent considerable time reviewing textbooks and curricula. So I know how bad some districts can be.

Evolution and climate change are so important in most school districts that they are religions.

If you think so, you have no idea what goes on in public schools. Trend is to care about the 3Rs, and hope everything else works out. Evolution is generally taught, if at all, in a very superficial manner until high school biology classes and even then, not very well.

I've had meetings with high school biology teachers, and they had a dismaying lack of understanding of evolutionary theory and the evidence for it.

I work as an oxygen tech, and concentrator's nitrogen canisters sometimes fail. When they fail the gritty white nitrogen powder gets spread all around inside the concentrator.

It would have to be remarkably cold:

The temperature of liquid nitrogen can readily be reduced to its freezing point 63 K (−210 °C; −346 °F) by placing it in a vacuum chamber pumped by a vacuum pump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_nitrogen

Is your statement that nitrogen is a gas part of the scientific ignorance you are concerned about?

At standard temperature and pressure, two atoms of the element bind to form dinitrogen, a colourless and odorless diatomic gas with the formula N2. Dinitrogen forms about 78% of Earth's atmosphere, making it the most abundant uncombined element.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen

I don't know what the dust you're talking about would be, but it certainly isn't nitrogen. Maybe a compound containing nitrogen? Would you mind looking it up and letting me know?

(Barbarian checks)

Ah, it's zeolite, which can absorb and hold nitrogen. But what you're seeing is mineral, not the gas that it absorbs. Zeolite is used, because it absorbs nitrogen at a much higher rate than oxygen. Hence, passing air over zeolite removes all or most of the nitrogen, leaving a concentrated form of oxygen.

It's the zeolite you're seeing.
 

rexlunae

New member
It would have to be remarkably cold:

The temperature of liquid nitrogen can readily be reduced to its freezing point 63 K (−210 °C; −346 °F) by placing it in a vacuum chamber pumped by a vacuum pump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_nitrogen

It's possible, depending on how much decompressive cooling you get, but it seems unlikely. It seems more likely that the gritty white flakes are some other component of the air, such as CO2, that freezes at a much higher temperature. If it were nitrogen, you'd expect it to be a lot more than a few flakes given that the bottle contains a greater than atmospheric concentration of nitrogen gas.

Edit: or, the zeolite. That would make a lot of sense too.
 

The Barbarian

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It would have to be at -346 degrees F, and a partial vacuum. Not likely. Since zeolite is the mineral used for this process, it would be hard to figure out what else it could be.

Well, I suppose it could be frozen CO2, but "gritty" sounds more like zeolite.
 

Interplanner

Well-known member
Barbarian observes:
Partially because many school districts don't see it as important, and because politicians of all stripes lie about it.



After I retired, I became a science teacher, and I have spent considerable time reviewing textbooks and curricula. So I know how bad some districts can be.



If you think so, you have no idea what goes on in public schools. Trend is to care about the 3Rs, and hope everything else works out. Evolution is generally taught, if at all, in a very superficial manner until high school biology classes and even then, not very well.

I've had meetings with high school biology teachers, and they had a dismaying lack of understanding of evolutionary theory and the evidence for it.



It would have to be remarkably cold:

The temperature of liquid nitrogen can readily be reduced to its freezing point 63 K (−210 °C; −346 °F) by placing it in a vacuum chamber pumped by a vacuum pump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_nitrogen



At standard temperature and pressure, two atoms of the element bind to form dinitrogen, a colourless and odorless diatomic gas with the formula N2. Dinitrogen forms about 78% of Earth's atmosphere, making it the most abundant uncombined element.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen

I don't know what the dust you're talking about would be, but it certainly isn't nitrogen. Maybe a compound containing nitrogen? Would you mind looking it up and letting me know?

(Barbarian checks)

Ah, it's zeolite, which can absorb and hold nitrogen. But what you're seeing is mineral, not the gas that it absorbs. Zeolite is used, because it absorbs nitrogen at a much higher rate than oxygen. Hence, passing air over zeolite removes all or most of the nitrogen, leaving a concentrated form of oxygen.

It's the zeolite you're seeing.





The machine's manual and the company's info sheet simply call it a nitrogen cannister. By forcing room air through them, the air that does come out is 96% oxygen instead of 20.5. The machines are made in Germany. when the seal wears out, the dust gets out.

The public schools and big media, education and government all impose evolution to the point of ridicule of any other view.

You may be on to something about geology, where the curious thing is that absence of required geology beyond one unit in 9th grade. I believe this is due to the intent to ruin common sense in kids; if you really know geology especially on the larger scales like tectonics, uniformitarianism becomes ridiculous.
 

The Barbarian

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Uniformitarianism is more applicable to physics than to geology. It is not gradualism, as many suppose it is. Rather, it's the idea that the rules by which the universe works have been constant throughout time. Uniformitarianism is not the opposite of catastrophism; it acknowledges sudden and discontinuous change.
 
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