I think it already was warmer, and now it is getting colder.
climate change
- Thread starter chrysostom
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I think it already was warmer, and now it is getting colder.
ing
The graph shows cooling in 60s and 70s, surly a time of high CO2 emissions. I would bet we see a cooling trend again, beginning now and it would not surprise me if it gets colder than it was in the 60s-70s.
We just went through a profound sunspot minimum (which reduces solar output).
The last few years should have been colder than the 1990s were. And yet, they were significantly warmer. When the sunspot recovery happens, then what?
Unless we get a record cold wave for the next two months, 2014 will be the hottest year on record.
Scientific Consensus - 97% of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position
Sea level rise - global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century
- the rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.
Global temperature rise - all three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880
- most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years
Carbon dioxide - for the past 650 000 years, the concentration of carbom dioxide had not exceeded 300 parts per million. That threshold level was exceeded in 1950 and has continuerd to rise. The 2014 level is now 400 parts per million.
Ocean acidification - since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent
- this increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans
- the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year
Shrinking ice sheets - the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass
- data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
Warming oceans - the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969
Extreme events - the number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950
- the U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Sea level rise - global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century
- the rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.
Global temperature rise - all three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880
- most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years
Carbon dioxide - for the past 650 000 years, the concentration of carbom dioxide had not exceeded 300 parts per million. That threshold level was exceeded in 1950 and has continuerd to rise. The 2014 level is now 400 parts per million.
Ocean acidification - since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent
- this increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans
- the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year
Shrinking ice sheets - the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass
- data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
Warming oceans - the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969
Extreme events - the number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950
- the U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
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PhilipJames
New member
To consider a different cause for changes in climate than man is illogical?
The idea that man is responsible for and can do anything about climate change is the foolish story. Dismissing any other plausible theories as foolish is irrational.
Says the theory. Obvious cooling trends while co2 levels are still steadily rising shows a disconnect between the theory and reality... this is why the ipcc temperature predictions based on that theory have been wrong over and over again and have to be continuously revised or extended to future dates.
The link I posted was to a paper full of the numbers you ask for. Did you read it?
Or, the increased solar activity over the last 80-90 years has brought this about... a much more likely theory.
Well, let's take a look...
http://skepticalscience.com/pics/Solar_vs_Temp_basic.gif
I dunno, Phil; that looks like a pretty big disconnect to me. Just saying...
The report rebuts the alarmist reports put out by the United Nations' IPCC, which the authors claim are in "contradiction of the scientific method" because the IPCC assumes that its implicit hypothesis that "dangerous global warming is resulting, or will result, from human-related greenhouse gas emissions" is correct and "that its only duty is to collect evidence and make plausible arguments in the hypothesis’s favor.
According to the study's authors, "the hypothesis of human-caused global warming comes up short not merely of 'full scientific certainty' but of reasonable certainty or even plausibility. The weight of evidence now leans heavily against the theory."
The U.N.'s IPCC's first key claim is that "a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause warming between 3°C and 6°C." The study's authors, though, conclude that the "IPCC ignores mounting evidence that climate sensitivity to CO2 is much lower than its models assume." The NIPCC study discovered that warming actually "ceased around the end of the twentieth century and was followed (since 1997) by 16 years of stable
Anyone can find supporting evdence
According to the study's authors, "the hypothesis of human-caused global warming comes up short not merely of 'full scientific certainty' but of reasonable certainty or even plausibility. The weight of evidence now leans heavily against the theory."
The U.N.'s IPCC's first key claim is that "a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause warming between 3°C and 6°C." The study's authors, though, conclude that the "IPCC ignores mounting evidence that climate sensitivity to CO2 is much lower than its models assume." The NIPCC study discovered that warming actually "ceased around the end of the twentieth century and was followed (since 1997) by 16 years of stable
Anyone can find supporting evdence
and you shall find
Scientific Debate
While many scientists are willing to go on record to point out trends in global warming, more than 17,000 scientists have signed a petition circulated by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine saying that they see no evidence of global warming at all. Less formal surveys amongst climatologists have pointed in the same direction.
Scientific Debate
While many scientists are willing to go on record to point out trends in global warming, more than 17,000 scientists have signed a petition circulated by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine saying that they see no evidence of global warming at all. Less formal surveys amongst climatologists have pointed in the same direction.
But, but, but, Kat don't you understand?
Yes, I saw that movie, with Denis Quaid. :thumb:
"Day After Tomorrow"
Denier claims:
Barbarian observes:
Perfect denier logic. That's why you guys fall for those stories in the first place.
It's not caused by falling sky, Phil. Might seem like it...:nono:
Barbarian suggests:
Instead of listening to foolish stories, why not just learn about the issue for yourself?
Comes down to evidence. And as you just learned, that's what the evidence says.
It would be. Show us a plausible theory that explains the evidence a different way.
Barbarian observes:
As usual, there's a reason for it. Turns out, greatly increasing the carbon dioxide level the way we've been doing it, traps more heat in the atmosphere.
Says the data. Would you like me to show it to you again.
Well, let's take a look...
Don't see a cooling trend. The overriding factor, according to the data, is carbon dioxide.
If you don't understand it well enough to present it here, how do you know they aren't just fooling you again?
Barbarian observes:
So what's that? Simple, really. The oceans have a much, much higher specific heat than the continents or the atmosphere. So most of the heat from global warming is going into the oceans.
Well, let's take a look...
Well, that doesn't work for you, does it? Notice that decreased solar input does affect temps, but not nearly as much as the increase in carbon dioxide does.
Another interesting belief shattered by the facts. Sorry about that.
Barbarian observes:
I dunno, Phil; that looks like a pretty big disconnect to me. Just saying...
I'm noticing the solar activity dropping, while the temps go up. That's the opposite of your belief. Nothing to do about that, but find a way to reconcile your beliefs with the reality. You'll have to explain why you think solar output is driving warming, when solar output has been declining for a half-century, while global temps have been increasing.
Another fifty years, say? Normally, sunspot minima have an almost immediate effect on climate. They did this time; the rise in temps was moderated by the lower output of the sun. But not enough to stop warming entirely.
Wordwide, it was the seventh hottest winter on record. Check the DJF averages here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Barbarian observes:
What's troubling, is that we've been able to override that effect.
No point in denying it. And it's not from just one data set. GISS, Hadley, NOAA data all confirm the fact.
If your belief was true, then the 50-year decline in solar output would be matched by cooler temperatures. But we see the opposite. Warming continues.
Barbarian observes:
We're just coming out of a deep sunspot minimum.
Well, let's take a look...
After four straight months of steep declines in monthly sunspot counts, July reversed the trend and increased slightly.
The Royal Observatory of Belgium released July’s average monthly sunspot count on August 1, 2014. Despite the mid-month spotless day, the sunspot number increased and it grew solar maximum again for the sixth straight month.
Cycle 24 still remains the weakest solar cycle in 100 years. It’s nowhere near NASA’s forecast smoothed peak. Data indicating weak sunspot activity over the next couple cycles remain strong.
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/sunspots-2014-two-big-surprises/
Sorry, if they don't even have the record right, why would anyone want to go there?
Barbarian observes:
Things should be getting a lot colder (look at the solar energy curve on the graph).
It's been 50 years now. A few more decades, you think?
True, but that means it should have been even colder, not warmer.
And the seventh hottest winter on record. You're confusing weather with climate.
Barbarian observes:
And yet, it's getting hotter. That's the issue.
Not for most deniers, although the guys funding deniers are mostly scared that doing something about it will cost them money. A lot of those guys are now realizing that not doing something about it will cost them a lot more money. Hence, Exxon's decision to defund some of the crazier denier groups and their decision to stop offering money to scientists if they'll write a paper denying warming.
Barbarian suggests:
Calm yourself. Start learning about the issue, and stop believing every story a denier tells you. Then you'll be free and you won't have to worry about falling skies.
If you're afraid that I'm tricking you into thinking for yourself, so that you'll come to agree with me, then we've uncovered another problem.
Phil offers his thoughts on the cause of global warming:
That's not what makes it happen, Phil.
Barbarian observes:
Perfect denier logic. That's why you guys fall for those stories in the first place.
It's not caused by falling sky, Phil. Might seem like it...:nono:
Barbarian suggests:
Instead of listening to foolish stories, why not just learn about the issue for yourself?
Comes down to evidence. And as you just learned, that's what the evidence says.
It would be. Show us a plausible theory that explains the evidence a different way.
Barbarian observes:
As usual, there's a reason for it. Turns out, greatly increasing the carbon dioxide level the way we've been doing it, traps more heat in the atmosphere.
Says the data. Would you like me to show it to you again.
Well, let's take a look...
Don't see a cooling trend. The overriding factor, according to the data, is carbon dioxide.
If you don't understand it well enough to present it here, how do you know they aren't just fooling you again?
Barbarian observes:
So what's that? Simple, really. The oceans have a much, much higher specific heat than the continents or the atmosphere. So most of the heat from global warming is going into the oceans.
Well, let's take a look...
Well, that doesn't work for you, does it? Notice that decreased solar input does affect temps, but not nearly as much as the increase in carbon dioxide does.
Another interesting belief shattered by the facts. Sorry about that.
Barbarian observes:
I dunno, Phil; that looks like a pretty big disconnect to me. Just saying...
I'm noticing the solar activity dropping, while the temps go up. That's the opposite of your belief. Nothing to do about that, but find a way to reconcile your beliefs with the reality. You'll have to explain why you think solar output is driving warming, when solar output has been declining for a half-century, while global temps have been increasing.
Another fifty years, say? Normally, sunspot minima have an almost immediate effect on climate. They did this time; the rise in temps was moderated by the lower output of the sun. But not enough to stop warming entirely.
Wordwide, it was the seventh hottest winter on record. Check the DJF averages here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Barbarian observes:
What's troubling, is that we've been able to override that effect.
No point in denying it. And it's not from just one data set. GISS, Hadley, NOAA data all confirm the fact.
If your belief was true, then the 50-year decline in solar output would be matched by cooler temperatures. But we see the opposite. Warming continues.
Barbarian observes:
We're just coming out of a deep sunspot minimum.
Well, let's take a look...
After four straight months of steep declines in monthly sunspot counts, July reversed the trend and increased slightly.
The Royal Observatory of Belgium released July’s average monthly sunspot count on August 1, 2014. Despite the mid-month spotless day, the sunspot number increased and it grew solar maximum again for the sixth straight month.
Cycle 24 still remains the weakest solar cycle in 100 years. It’s nowhere near NASA’s forecast smoothed peak. Data indicating weak sunspot activity over the next couple cycles remain strong.
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/sunspots-2014-two-big-surprises/
Sorry, if they don't even have the record right, why would anyone want to go there?
Barbarian observes:
Things should be getting a lot colder (look at the solar energy curve on the graph).
It's been 50 years now. A few more decades, you think?
True, but that means it should have been even colder, not warmer.
And the seventh hottest winter on record. You're confusing weather with climate.
Barbarian observes:
And yet, it's getting hotter. That's the issue.
Not for most deniers, although the guys funding deniers are mostly scared that doing something about it will cost them money. A lot of those guys are now realizing that not doing something about it will cost them a lot more money. Hence, Exxon's decision to defund some of the crazier denier groups and their decision to stop offering money to scientists if they'll write a paper denying warming.
Barbarian suggests:
Calm yourself. Start learning about the issue, and stop believing every story a denier tells you. Then you'll be free and you won't have to worry about falling skies.
If you're afraid that I'm tricking you into thinking for yourself, so that you'll come to agree with me, then we've uncovered another problem.
Phil offers his thoughts on the cause of global warming:
That's not what makes it happen, Phil.
Kat writes:
It says that only about one third of the climate change in the last 45 years can be attributed to solar variation. That pretty much confirms the models that climatologists use now.
As you may have noticed, the sunspot minimum should have produced much cooler climate, but only moderated the warming trend.
It says that only about one third of the climate change in the last 45 years can be attributed to solar variation. That pretty much confirms the models that climatologists use now.
As you may have noticed, the sunspot minimum should have produced much cooler climate, but only moderated the warming trend.
The deniers are abandoning attempts to present science, and are now posting cartoons. I think the end game approaches.
Yep. They're on the run.
- 97% of climate scientists agree
- the last decade has been the warmest on record
- most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position
- observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring
- the scientific evidence is clear
- climate change is real
- human‐induced climate change requires urgent action
- the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change
- it is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced
- The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring.
- global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900's
- there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring
- the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear
- the global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases
- warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
Can our climate change deniers match the overwhelming concensus by the international and American scientific communities that climate change is a fact/unequivocal/clear/incontrovertible/real?
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