58 Dead, 500 Plus Wounded

Town Heretic

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Hall of Fame
We'll never know will we he was assassinated before he could expose the conspirators..
What on earth are you talking about? We know who and what he was speaking to. It's been turned into something out of a James Bond movie by people with imagination and too much time on their hands. We were involved in a cold war against communism that was dedicated, in its principles, to removing us and ending Western democracy.
 

Yorzhik

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LIFETIME MEMBER
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No, I've presented notions, not laws. And the countries that use them don't have our problems. Why you'retrying to "no" me on that goofy a point is anyone's guess. Feels likean attempt to sidebar and distract. Anyway, I've presented a few ideas thathave been adopted by some to real effect and opened the floor for any suggestions.

I thought you inferred that a ban on bump stocks and high capacity mags was a good idea?

I think the difficulty we are having communicating is because you think this problem can be solved situationally, while I would propose it needs to be solved via general principle. And that's what I mean by "unfettered", too.

There is no detailed list of behavior bans that won't lead down the road directly to a police state eventually. So while you see "a weapon that can be directed against a single human" as a fetter, you see it the wrong way. It's a principle. It can be applied to all the detailed behavior bans that you can come up with. And it also answers your objection outlined below.

Meanwhile, you still haven't addressed the problem your own position creates for you. Here it is again, more succinctly.

On the right to bear arms.


Re: carrying RPGs or Bazookas

I did no such thing. You said the right must beunfettered (see: bold above) or it isn't a right at all. I unfetteredit. And the moment I do your position becomes as obviously absurd as itactually is. That's the problem and it's yours, not mine.


See, you created an arbitrary distinction orfetter yourself, that the weapon must be capable of a more surgical use (by theway, that's not how automatic works and you've already acknowledged it) that isan acknowledgement both of us understand the right cannot be without reasonedlimits.

So pick a side. If we can restrict the right inany sense then we're just arguing about what's reasonable. If you hold we can'tdo that, then you have to abandon your own limitation of a weapon brought tobear against a single human being and we're back to the unreasonable possessionof bazookas and RPGs.

But mine isn't (either). You just have to know how to actually reason and get to it.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
We know do we?
Sure. It wasn't a veiled script.


:plain: Oh.

Spoiler
3bld4.gif
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I thought you inferred that a ban on bump stocks and high capacity mags was a good idea?
Oh, sure. Absolutely. But they aren't "laws" they're ideas, at this point.

I think the difficulty we are having communicating is because you think this problem can be solved situationally, while I would propose it needs to be solved via general principle. And that's what I mean by "unfettered", too.
I think the problem is twofold: first, I haven't heard what you'd do to impact the problem that would be different a year from now. Secondly, you have this notion about what's permissible that contradicts your premise that the right should be unfettered (unlike any other right).

There is no detailed list of behavior bans that won't lead down the road directly to a police state eventually.
That's nonsense. Laws are behavior bans. Anarchy isn't the solution.

Meanwhile, Yor believes that we can't fetter gun rights, that when we do the right doesn't exist. I noted that there isn't a right that exists without modification as we balance competing rights and users. I noted that if this right is unfettered you would have access to RPGs, bazookas, machine guns.

Yor suggests that only weapons we can train on the individual should be permitted, meaning that not even Yor believes Yor is right, because his principle would fetter the right. And Yor objected to fettering it.

At that point it's time to stop with the "unfettered or no right" nonsense and really talk about what we can see that has been effective in curbing the sort of incident we had in Las Vegas, in lowering the 29 deaths per million by firearms the business as usual has led to, compared to any other industrial, Western democracy, where second place sees about 7 per million.

So while you see "a weapon that can be directed against a single human" as a fetter, you see it the wrong way.
No, I see it rationally. You just limited what Nihilo, who believes the Court was clear on what a man can possess, a weapon of war among soldiers, is permitted to own and keep. Once you do that the only difference between you and me is what we're willing to consider and how we're willing to limit.

Saying "No, it isn't," doesn't make it so, Yor. When you tell Nihilo or anyone they can't have a weapon because you believe we should only have weapons that can do X your principle is an impediment to anyone who wants to own X.

Welcome to the conversation.
 

Yorzhik

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Oh, sure. Absolutely. But they aren't "laws" they're ideas, at this point.
The point being they are ideas for laws. This isn't a problem that can be solved by trying to imagine every situation and picking the ones to ban. This problem can only be solved by enforcing principles.

And if you want to say that when one right overlaps another right, and one giving way is a fetter to that right, then fine. But then "unfettered" and "fettered" has no meaning which is OK, too. But then we'll have to another word to understand what you are trying to say.

So, without asking what new word you'd prefer to use, let me propose the first law to stop a Paddock style event:
Murder is not allowed.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
The point being they are ideas for laws.
Okay. The idea being to find ways to make incidents like Vegas and other mass shootings that happen here, along with making accidental deaths and injury, less frequent. So there's a range of considerations. That's why I've suggested mandatory safety courses, registration, large clip and bump stock bans, etc.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by trying to imagine every situation and picking the ones to ban.
Like saying car safety isn't about imagining what could happen and trying to do something about those incidents. Sometimes a prohibition is a good idea, as with prohibiting the sale of cars without seatbelts, or stopping people from owning RPGs, bazookas, and machineguns. Sometimes it can be about process, as with safety courses.

This problem can only be solved by enforcing principles.
Everyone is speaking to principle, but that said, such as? What, particularly, would be done differently if you were setting policy? What are your ideas along that line?

And if you want to say that when one right overlaps another right, and one giving way is a fetter to that right, then fine. But then "unfettered" and "fettered" has no meaning which is OK, too. But then we'll have to another word to understand what you are trying to say.
No, the words don't lose meaning. What stops is the notion of an absolute right without any other consideration. Right doesn't exist in a vacuum. That doesn't make the fettered or encumbered or right are somehow rendered meaningless. Their use simply describes the actual relationship between the ideas and the application, what necessarily happens as we exercise right.

And once we reach that understanding then the conversation is about what sort of differences need to be considered and what actions taken regarding how we approach the exercise of the right to bear arms in relation to other rights and the promotion of a stable compact.

So, without asking what new word you'd prefer to use, let me propose the first law to stop a Paddock style event:
Murder is not allowed.
Already on the books. So if your suggestions are going to boil down to a fuzzy defense of the indefensible status quo you're not really a party to the conversation. That isn't working.
 

jsanford108

New member
When you repeatedly question how a thing could be you infer that it couldn't reasonably be as it appears. I've given you a reasonable account of how evidence and accountings can become altered over the course of a normal investigative process. You appear to resist that. There's no other route left to follow by implication, however shy you are with the application.
Okay, that is fine. You can call me a conspiracy theorist, if that is the label applied to one who questions things that don't add up. I openly do not accept the story prompted by the government on the Kennedy Assassination. I have a random theory of conspiracy on a couple high profile cases (None of which involve government cover up or anything of that nature; the only cover up that appears most likely is the JFK Assassination).

But to just question an ever-changing story, with ever changing "facts" is not conspiracy, it is just natural.


{QUOTE] I've asked which reports and to what extent over what time period. Or are you just repeating a thing without an empirical foundation, your impression of events over that time, your memory?[/QUOTE] I will provide the links to two CNN articles (Ironically, two others which I read originally have since seemed to disappear....), as well as two videos which have a very interesting interviewee.

Also, can you provide articles that show consistency in the details, such as guns owned, in hotel room, etc. spread out over a two week period?


I haven't seen the accounts you find convincing. A quick Google didn't provide them. So show us the reports in their difference. Post links and give us the contradictory facts that lept from them and cause you to wonder, that seemed out of step with my note on the natural evolution of process. If it's actual I'd be interested.
Your links will be below. Also, your note on the natural evolution of the investigative process does not account for conflicting numbers of guns and casualties. Such things should be set and unchanging. Yet, that is not the case.

I'm not the one making claims that observed facts are problematic. What's to link to? I'm rebutting the tenuously assumptive with reason and experience. I did note the tank being shot at. Here's a CNN report link to them noting one was struck by the fire, etc.
Okay, let us use this article as an example. Paddock had incendiary rounds. Where in this article does it provide the source for the claim that a tank was indeed hit? This is basic journalism.

No, you've offered impressions of reports. For all I know you're just remembering a cross section of immediate media reportings of things that hadn't been properly sorted, in the midst of an emotionally charged situation, etc.
I actually waited over a week post the shooting to begin looking into it. I do this with any inflammatory story or event. Why? Because in today's media, the reporters just push out information, true or false, in order to be the first to sway opinion a certain way. Thus, I just wait for the stories to die down, then I gather information that is considered reputable and closest to fact. We unfortunately live in a decade of false news, where media pushes agendas rather than actual facts and news. (Not taking Trump's side here, as he also does the same thing)


You keep saying that, but I don't know why you keep saying that. You haven't stopped to consider any number of points I've raised that answer the rounds relative to injuries. Night, distance, hidden targets, rounds wasted on the tank, time wasted on repositioning, 200 or better rounds in the wall and corridor outside his room, sprayed at a security guard. That sort of thing.

He may have had money, weapons, and some range time, but he was also a nut with no field fire experience, who'd panicked enough to pepper a hall with bullets, who thought he could blow up a distant fuel tank with incendiary rounds fired from his rifle. This isn't an ex Marine plotting a massacre. This isn't a sniper with the right weapon, a flash suppressor and steely nerves. This is a nut who thought he might get away and do even more damage. He was prepared for that. It was part of that fantasy life that didn't work out.
Interesting points you bring up. So, this Paddock amassed over 50 weapons, and never gained any experience firing them? As well as various ammunition. Sure, someone can purchase a gun and some various ammo, and never fire them. But the number of guns claimed to be possessed by Paddock should indicate a "gun nut," who should have had some degree of experience in firing said guns.


No, it's reports from what they've gathered as evidence. Most of what we know in sum is coming from those sources. That's their job. And there's no reason for them to attempt to do it badly.
Right, because there is no evidence of media pushing agendas, is there.

And again, what's the alternative? What's the reason for anyone getting it intentionally wrong? And if there was a conspiracy, why wouldn't that message be canned and ready?
I don't have an alternate. I am only pointing to facts and evidence not adding up.

What's the reasonable alternative to the seeming truth here, one that follows the course of a tragic, violent situation. There were varying reports on details in the Newton shooting of 2012. It was a hot topic here and a few people were heavy on the number of guns changing (that's the shooting I was referring to earlier).
Gotcha. I had no idea what shooting you were expressly referring to, so I just assumed it was a generalization based on several shootings.


I said you're thinking of his efficacy in shooting that way. You're not really demonstrating an understanding of the logistics, the reality of live fire in the hands of a novice of what proficiency in a bad shooting situation if you're going for accuracy. There's nothing in what happened that doesn't line up.
Allow us to examine various issues though. He had 23 guns with him in his room, right? Why do the pictures show much less than that?

If Paddock fired thousands of rounds, where is all the brass? It should logically be in the room or on the ground outside, yet neither one of those locations produces "thousands" of brass casings.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/02/us/las-vegas-shooter/index.html (Note the number of weapons, and ammo type)

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/03/us/las-vegas-shooting-investigation/index.html (Note the number of weapons and ammo type)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T1UE48QXB4 (Mike Cronk with a seemingly happy interview)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C8UL2K2v34 (Mike Cronk, again, quite casual and happy)

There is another video that was shown to me, which I can't seem to find, of Cronk being reunited with his "buddy." The man is in a hospital bed with gauze over his chest. Several things popped out to me. The IV is not hooked up. The gauze shows no professional taping, as well as no serious "chest wounds." (Three rounds placed in the location of the gauze, by a .223 round, would have hit his lungs and heart.) There is no o2 hooked up. The EKG monitor is not showing any reading. There are no other instruments hooked up to the man. The man is sitting up, talking, and smiling; pretty good for a guy who took 3 rounds to the chest.

If I find this video, I will post it. I just couldn't find it in my quick search for links.
 

Yorzhik

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Okay. The idea being to find ways to make incidents like Vegas and other mass shootings that happen here, along with making accidental deaths and injury, less frequent.
The way to do it is to give people freedom. Any situational laws, like those you are proposing, are not really a range of possibilities but merely different aspects of a single idea. That idea, as Hayek would put it, is the road to serfdom. But you can call it the partial list of the police state.

So there's a range of considerations. That's why I've suggested mandatory safety courses, registration, large clip and bump stock bans, etc.
It's all the same road. You'll just add to the list for the next Paddock. You tell me, where does this list end? Will you finally say when the next next next Paddock happens that you've found the key behavior that fixes the Paddock problem?

Seriously, do you really think a smart guy like Paddock if faced with the laws you propose wouldn't have found easy, or even more deadly, ways around them?

Everyone is speaking to principle, but that said, such as? What, particularly, would be done differently if you were setting policy? What are your ideas along that line?
Remove all laws that are currently on the books, and replace them with 3 general laws:
You shall not steal
You shall not abuse
You shall not murder

And under these 3 will be other generalities, like:
The government shall insure contracts between consenting adults

Which is really only a sub-generality under "you shall not steal", but could also be a sub-generality under "you shall not abuse."

And how does that stop Paddock? It wouldn't stop every Paddock, but it would make less Paddocks because happy people generally don't do what Paddock did. And people that are free to defend themselves don't have to wait 18 minutes for the police because these kinds of general laws have more to do with people believing the justice system is actually just - that when they defend themselves, the justice system will be behind them and not the Paddock (people aren't sure if this would be true today).

Your way leads to a lot of unhappy people with nothing to lose. It creates more Paddocks. And it creates people who are afraid to defend themselves for fear of an unjust justice system.

Can we ever achieve this in the US? No, that isn't politically possible. But what is politically possible is avoiding the list of the police state at the kind of break-neck speed you are proposing, and pushing the kind of good government I'm proposing closer inch by inch. The closer we get to it, the happier you and all the citizens will be.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
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The way to do it is to give people freedom.
But you've said you aren't comfortable with RPGs in the hands of people. That's freedom.

At the moment it appears you're arguing for less regulation and oversight than we have now, with four times the deaths by firearms as the runner up of Western democracies. The objective proof is out and it's contrary to the notion of safety via fewer laws on the point.

Any situational laws,
Define that for me. How does a "situational law" differ from any other law?

are not really a range of possibilities but merely different aspects of a single idea.
What makes you think the law is about a range of possibilities? How is that different from any law aimed at a particular outcome?

That idea, as Hayek would put it, is the road to serfdom.
And yet we've had those sorts of laws or fetters if you like from the beginning of our compact and we're still not serfs. A few hundred years of them and we have women and minorities added to the list of free peoples within our compact.

You'll just add to the list for the next Paddock.
If necessary, sure. That's what you do when you try something and it doesn't quite work. You don't leave the square wheels on the chariot.

You tell me, where does this list end?
When the cost/benefit finds a balance society can live with (either).

Seriously, do you really think a smart guy like Paddock if faced with the laws you propose wouldn't have found easy, or even more deadly, ways around them?
I don't know. Maybe he wasn't as smart as you think, or maybe crazy would have undone him, the way many a terrorist is undone trying to access illegal markets they don't have personal inroads into. What I do know with dread certainty is that left unchanged the recipe for another incident like that is sitting on the kitchen table.

Remove all laws that are currently on the books, and replace them with 3 general laws:
You shall not steal
You shall not abuse
You shall not murder
See, you're doing it again. You can't say law is the problem then keep a few laws, that freedom is the solution and keep a few bars. As with your bazooka problem, on some level you have to know you're arguing against yourself.

And how does that stop Paddock? It wouldn't stop every Paddock
We don't make laws because or only when we believe everyone will obey them.

but it would make less Paddocks because happy people generally don't do what Paddock did.
What frequently makes lunatics happy is the death and maiming of other people they don't on some fundamental level recognize as having a fully vested humanity that they believe they possess.

You think throwing out most law is a recipe for happy people. I think that's about as naive and demonstrably wrong as a communist manifesto. Good law breeds stability, safety, opportunity, and the happiness commiserate with it. A good law in this case would make it more difficult for madmen to ply their trade. And if that's the sum impact then it's still better than the alternative.

And people that are free to defend themselves don't have to wait 18 minutes for the police
People are free to defend themselves and don't have to wait to do it. That's not what the conversation is about. It's about the limits of what's reasonable as an implement of self-defense, when we move from that to a place where all we really do is jeopardize more people, making all of us less safe and, presumably, less happy.

Your way leads to a lot of unhappy people with nothing to lose.
No, my way is rational and leads to people trained to be less likely to kill or maim themselves or others, possessing weapons that would be less likely to approach a Las Vegas total. It is the path of increased safety and the happiness attending it.

It creates more Paddocks. And it creates people who are afraid to defend themselves for fear of an unjust justice system.
Self evidently untrue. Where there are better and stronger gun laws, those peoples/nations have demonstrably fewer murders. If that doesn't make you happier then by all means, take up smoking, cross against the light, and run with scissors down every available hallway.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Okay, that is fine. You can call me a conspiracy theorist, if that is the label applied to one who questions things that don't add up.
No, that's not what defines a conspiracy theorist and I only noted your objections were hard to categorize otherwise. A conspiracy theorist is someone who creates an unreasonable reality from the appearance of reasonable parts, more often than not. Human beings are native geniuses with pattern recognition. It's built into us. It's why we see faces in wood panels and animals in clouds. And absent serious rational concentration, it's what produces from otherwise reasonable people, conspiracy theory, a hybrid between fact and wood panel, reasonable consideration and cloud animals.

I openly do not accept the story prompted by the government on the Kennedy Assassination.
Doesn't surprise me. It would be surprising if this one was the only one, but it almost never works out that way.

But to just question an ever-changing story, with ever changing "facts" is not conspiracy, it is just natural.
It depends on two things: the questions you're asking and your level of expertise in the particular. By way of example, as an attorney I frequently find people with wrong headed understandings of law, even regarding the principles and function of the court system. And I'm always happy to dispel notions that run contrary to the actual and help someone steer into a better grasp of any of that. A person who has been the victim of simple and understandable ignorance on a point or thing can't and shouldn't be chastised for it, unless they cling to that notion in the face of explanation by someone who doesn't have their lack. So if I have a misinformed medical opinion and my physician corrects me, I may (if I'm feeling stubborn) double check his correction with Web MD or the like, but when confirmed I'll conform my belief to reason and fact.

So seeing the changing landscape of an active investigation of this sort and wondering about the altering variables is completely natural if you aren't intimate with the process. Holding onto them against reasonable answers from those who are is indicative of something other than natural curiosity and a lack of knowledge.

your note on the natural evolution of the investigative process does not account for conflicting numbers of guns and casualties.
It really does. I even told you how and why. Initial reports take in a changing landscape of information. Some of it witness based, most of it witness based early on, more and more balanced by forensic evidence as the scenes are processed. I believe I noted one case I worked where no one was killed, but there was a lot of damage, different witnesses, involved and uninvolved in the direct circumstances. The testimony varied greatly, even in close proximity of the incident, which isn't unexpected. There are a number of perfectly innocent reasons for it. The value of the testimony is in agreement and in shoring up forensic evidence on the points considered, where there is a great deal of it to be considered.

Such things should be set and unchanging. Yet, that is not the case.
Not true for the reasons given and illustrated prior and to a lesser extent above. Your resistance to the relatively easy explanation by someone with experience in taking depositions, examining and using witness testimony and empirical data tells me that your bias, tendency, conspiracy streak is running your show. At that point you stop being reasonable.

Okay, let us use this article as an example. Paddock had incendiary rounds. Where in this article does it provide the source for the claim that a tank was indeed hit? This is basic journalism.
The article noted:

"Authorities have previously disclosed that Paddock fired at the tank and struck it..."

I actually waited over a week post the shooting to begin looking into it...We unfortunately live in a decade of false news, where media pushes agendas rather than actual facts and news. (Not taking Trump's side here, as he also does the same thing)
Yeah, that's largely not true. For the most part differing media outlets act as a system of checks and balances. There's always the margin, but on the whole reporters and the media do a good job of getting out a remarkable amount of information daily. People often mistake the glaring exception for the rule, but the court system has the same problem. You can search and find hundreds of alarming cases of miscarriage of justice and it seems alarming until you understand the volume of processing and how slim that illustration is.

As for how long you wait, it's always a good idea. But even a week into it, if the police haven't published their report you're largely getting warmed over earlier work with some human interest angles mixed in, or speculation to fuel or exploit the interest level.


Interesting points you bring up. So, this Paddock amassed over 50 weapons, and never gained any experience firing them?
I don't know what his proficiency was. Do you? I know he wasn't military. I know he had no experience shooting from his position, shooting with the adrenalin that had to be in play, with the fear of being found out too soon to complete his idea and the idea of escape (which evidence suggests he entertained) having fled with the firing of those 200+ rounds at the guard. He made unseasoned mistakes in a number of choices, thank God. He looks like a guy with money, opportunity, a degree of mental instability, and some notion of calculating for his fire.

As well as various ammunition. Sure, someone can purchase a gun and some various ammo, and never fire them. But the number of guns claimed to be possessed by Paddock should indicate a "gun nut," who should have had some degree of experience in firing said guns.
I never said he had no experience. That's your pile of straw. I said something very different. I repeated a little of it just now.

Right, because there is no evidence of media pushing agendas, is there.
Sometimes a field will catch fire. It's reasonable to take precautions against it. When you find yourself presuming the field, every field, is about to catch fire you've crossed a line into something else.

I don't have an alternate. I am only pointing to facts and evidence not adding up.
And you're wrong on that for the reasons given. That you resist with no other narrative presenting itself to your mind speaks to whatever it is that makes you someone prone to imaginative use of that pattern recognition. You should recognize that and take steps.

Allow us to examine various issues though. He had 23 guns with him in his room, right? Why do the pictures show much less than that?
I don't know how many were in what part of the room. I don't know if they'd removed some of the weapons before a particular photo was shot or what angel covering what part of the room each photo expresses, and so on. Any number of relatively innocuous explanations.

If Paddock fired thousands of rounds, where is all the brass?
Depends on the ejector. Likely below the window. Look at the photos of the place and see what's directly beneath it.

It should logically be in the room or on the ground outside, yet neither one of those locations produces "thousands" of brass casings.
There's also very little of the window glass on the ground below. Why? Because there's an intervening surface below those windows.

On the articles you noted: I looked at the two CNN articles a day apart, both noting 23 guns. One noted 19 additional weapons found in the shooter's home. That would be 42 guns total. The totals between the two articles are consistent.
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
I thought we were talking about machine guns. Like this. Not assault rifles.
We were talking about both/either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M249_light_machine_gun
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StG_44
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M16_rifle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_carbine

I want a bullpup, myself, because it seems like the ideal way to carry a rifle, have you experience with any?

The Second Amendment's "right to keep and bear arms" at least is denoting standard issue service rifles.
 

chair

Well-known member
We were talking about both/either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M249_light_machine_gun
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StG_44
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M16_rifle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M4_carbine

I want a bullpup, myself, because it seems like the ideal way to carry a rifle, have you experience with any?

The Second Amendment's "right to keep and bear arms" at least is denoting standard issue service rifles.

The term used in that discussion was "machine gun". Those are heavy and not suited for personal protection for civilians.

Years ago I had a carbine for guard duty where we lived. Most of the other guys has M16s- because they had already served in the army. When I mentioned this to someone whose opinion I respect, he said: "The carbine is a fine weapon. It will do the job you need, and if there any mistakes, they will be one bullet at a time."

My army service (Israel) was with the M16 and the "Galil", which is basically a Kalachnikov that uses standard NATO ammo. Used a MAG a lot, and some light mortars (in training only). Bullpups were introduced here relatively late (Tavor). I can see their advantage in many situations.

I don't see any real need for civilians to carry fully automatic weapons. They are not needed for protection or hunting. I think (or hope) that everybody here realizes that there need to be some limits- civilians don't need RPGs or Vulcan antiaircraft guns or B52 bombers. The question is: where is the limit? The answer to that depends on why you think civillians shoudl have weapons in the first place.

If somebody really thinks that civilians should be armed well enough to take on their government if it goes bad- then logically you have to allow them everything the the army has. Everything. Along with the right to train as battalions and divisions.

If weapons are for personal protection and hunting, then you should allow weapons that are appropriate for those uses. And regulate: who qualifies, licenses needed, training, etc. Just like you do for cars.
 

jsanford108

New member
No, that's not what defines a conspiracy theorist and I only noted your objections were hard to categorize otherwise. A conspiracy theorist is someone who creates an unreasonable reality from the appearance of reasonable parts, more often than not. Human beings are native geniuses with pattern recognition. It's built into us. It's why we see faces in wood panels and animals in clouds. And absent serious rational concentration, it's what produces from otherwise reasonable people, conspiracy theory, a hybrid between fact and wood panel, reasonable consideration and cloud animals.
we agree.

It depends on two things: the questions you're asking and your level of expertise in the particular. By way of example, as an attorney I frequently find people with wrong headed understandings of law, even regarding the principles and function of the court system. And I'm always happy to dispel notions that run contrary to the actual and help someone steer into a better grasp of any of that. A person who has been the victim of simple and understandable ignorance on a point or thing can't and shouldn't be chastised for it, unless they cling to that notion in the face of explanation by someone who doesn't have their lack. So if I have a misinformed medical opinion and my physician corrects me, I may (if I'm feeling stubborn) double check his correction with Web MD or the like, but when confirmed I'll conform my belief to reason and fact.
I am glad to find out you are an attorney. This indicates that you should be able to proceed logically. For the time, let us ignore a generalization that attorneys care more about success than truth. It will enable us to proceed with reason, rather than goals of "winning" our case.

It really does. I even told you how and why. Initial reports take in a changing landscape of information. Some of it witness based, most of it witness based early on, more and more balanced by forensic evidence as the scenes are processed. I believe I noted one case I worked where no one was killed, but there was a lot of damage, different witnesses, involved and uninvolved in the direct circumstances. The testimony varied greatly, even in close proximity of the incident, which isn't unexpected. There are a number of perfectly innocent reasons for it. The value of the testimony is in agreement and in shoring up forensic evidence on the points considered, where there is a great deal of it to be considered.
Eye witness testimony is not what I am questioning. Do you not classify the published statements of police and investigators as separate from "eye witness testimony?"

If so, point to an officer/investigator, on this case, finding new guns just laying around the hotel room, days later.


Not true for the reasons given and illustrated prior and to a lesser extent above. Your resistance to the relatively easy explanation by someone with experience in taking depositions, examining and using witness testimony and empirical data tells me that your bias, tendency, conspiracy streak is running your show. At that point you stop being reasonable.
Okay. Let us proceed with this. Give evidence of the expended brass. Provide a theory on the lack of guns in all the pictures. By your argument, if you cannot sustain your position with proof and theory, then you are letting bias run your claim.


Yeah, that's largely not true. For the most part differing media outlets act as a system of checks and balances. There's always the margin, but on the whole reporters and the media do a good job of getting out a remarkable amount of information daily. People often mistake the glaring exception for the rule, but the court system has the same problem. You can search and find hundreds of alarming cases of miscarriage of justice and it seems alarming until you understand the volume of processing and how slim that illustration is.
Do not misdirect points on media bias into miscarriages of justice. Those are two very separate, and statistically different, topics.

Media bias, while examples of fringe exist, is largely true. Examine the Red Scare. Examine Clinton's projected victory over Trump. Examine Fox New's defense of Trump, always. Examine CNN's bashing of Trump, always. Media should be unbiased and report facts and pass along information. But that is not the case in today's mainstreams.

I never said he had no experience. That's your pile of straw. I said something very different. I repeated a little of it just now.
You are right, you never said it. You just implied it.

The same goes for your false assumption that I was confusing basic rifles with assault-styles. Implying that I had little knowledge of gun mechanics, classifications, etc.

Sometimes a field will catch fire. It's reasonable to take precautions against it. When you find yourself presuming the field, every field, is about to catch fire you've crossed a line into something else.
Right. But neither of us has crossed that line. Unless, you are implying something without direct statement....

And you're wrong on that for the reasons given. That you resist with no other narrative presenting itself to your mind speaks to whatever it is that makes you someone prone to imaginative use of that pattern recognition. You should recognize that and take steps.
interesting, coming from an attorney. In court, you don't "prove" innocence or guilt; you simply convince parties of either doubt or affirmation of applied charges. Alternate narratives are not necessary for proving guilt or innocence.

These are cases where people's lives are in the balance; alternate theory is not required. Yet, for a discussion on "conspiracy," lacking the affect on human life, you insist on much more rigorous standards?


I don't know how many were in what part of the room. I don't know if they'd removed some of the weapons before a particular photo was shot or what angel covering what part of the room each photo expresses, and so on. Any number of relatively innocuous explanations.
So you admit that the number of guns present in the pictures does not align with the numbers we are told were present?

Why then, pray tell, were the guns moved by authorities when forensic pictures were being taken? What is your alternate theory to the quantity of weapons in the pictures being unequal to the number provided, no matter how innocuous?


Depends on the ejector. Likely below the window. Look at the photos of the place and see what's directly beneath it.


There's also very little of the window glass on the ground below. Why? Because there's an intervening surface below those windows.
Right. So why the lack of brass? Why do none of the reports give the location of missing brass? Glass is mentioned, but not brass. Is this not reasonable lack of evidence in support of the number of shots fired?

Also, why did you not mention Cronk? After all your misdirection on eye witness accounts, why not mention Cronk? Could it be that his accounts, actions, and manner are aggravating to your points on media bias and proposed ("accepted") theory?


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Yorzhik

Well-known member
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But you've said you aren't comfortable with RPGs in the hands of people. That's freedom.
In this context, it would be the freedom to defend one's self, not freedom from any laws.

Define that for me. How does a "situational law" differ from any other law?
Situational law creates a new law for each new situation. Law based on principle covers laws against certain behavior that would work, generally, in all countries and all time periods.

In other words, a law against bump stocks could very well not even be understood in a mere 50 years. Don't murder, steal, or abuse has been and will be understood seemingly forever.

Yorzhik said:
And how does that stop Paddock? It wouldn't stop every Paddock
We don't make laws because or only when we believe everyone will obey them.
You'll never be able to tweak the bans to stop the next Paddocks until you have a police state.

No, my way is rational and leads to people trained to be less likely to kill or maim themselves or others, possessing weapons that would be less likely to approach a Las Vegas total. It is the path of increased safety and the happiness attending it.
You aren't being rational. The next Paddock will kill as many or more people by getting around your laws, and you put a lot of innocent people in legal trouble for having bump stocks and high capacity mags. And when that happens, you'll enact even more draconian laws, and even more innocent people will be in legal trouble. Have some mercy and avoid the road you are going down.

Self evidently untrue. Where there are better and stronger gun laws, those peoples/nations have demonstrably fewer murders. If that doesn't make you happier then by all means, take up smoking, cross against the light, and run with scissors down every available hallway.
If you want to talk about crime rates as a population then that's a different topic. Let's get done with how to stop Paddocks first.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
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we agree.
:noid:

I am glad to find out you are an attorney.
Well there's a thing you don't hear that often. :D

This indicates that you should be able to proceed logically.
Sure. I always do.

For the time, let us ignore a generalization that attorneys care more about success than truth.
Isn't that like, "You're a [redacted], but let's put the petty aside for now." :chuckle:

More seriously, that notion about lawyers is mostly born out of a lack of understanding about how the justice system is structured and the roles of attorneys within it.

It will enable us to proceed with reason, rather than goals of "winning" our case.
Are you of the opinion that those are mutually exclusive? This isn't a case, it's a conversation. You appear alarmed and suspicious. I don't believe you have any reason to be, at least past a point (the point where you're given a reasonable alternative that doesn't require a conspiracy whose existence cannot be buttressed by any particular reason/motive).

Eye witness testimony is not what I am questioning.
It's responsible for a lot of what you heard early on, pre-forensic processing.

Do you not classify the published statements of police and investigators as separate from "eye witness testimony?"
Early statements from police tend to be reflections of available testimony and preliminary forensics. They're only as reliable as the sources and, from time lines to brass, those can be as prone to movement and correction. That's why the best investigations are mum until the data is in and correlated. But in cases like this the public has a deep seated desire to understand and there's a degree of obligation to attempt to answer that desire.

If so, point to an officer/investigator, on this case, finding new guns just laying around the hotel room, days later.
I have no reason to suspect that happened. The two articles you noted, one day apart, agreed on the totals.

Okay. Let us proceed with this. Give evidence of the expended brass.
By accounts, including video, an awful lot of shots were fired. Guns that fire shells leave brass somewhere. In this case, the most likely somewhere would be amongst the glass caught on a ledge below the shooter's two positions.

Provide a theory on the lack of guns in all the pictures.
I haven't seen an exhaustive photo layout of the room that would give you a clear picture of the various guns counted by the police. There are guns in the limited perspective photos released to the public.

By your argument, if you cannot sustain your position with proof and theory, then you are letting bias run your claim.
I'm only assuming that the police are capable of counting and did so. There's no reason to believe they aren't and didn't.

Do not misdirect points on media bias into miscarriages of justice. Those are two very separate, and statistically different, topics.
It's a parallel illustration of a principle, not a confluence of the different lines. I don't believe you can make and you certainly hadn't prior to the declaration made the case against popular media on the whole. I noted the less cynical version of how that belief comes into being and why it is mistaken by using a parallel, miscarriages of justice. Given the imperfection of human beings and sufficient volume you can produce nearly any illustration you want, but you can't produce it as a rule unless it demonstrably is one.

Media bias, while examples of fringe exist, is largely true.
It's certainly true that human beings have bias and that some outlets are tailored to serving it, but that argues against a larger, monolithic bias. Bias toward or against what? Bias writ large and if so by what empirical measurement, and so on.

Examine the Red Scare. Examine Clinton's projected victory over Trump.
Not sure what you mean in particular about the first. The second point was a matter of polling and as the election grew closer most of that polling indicated a shrinking gap. Clinton actually did prevail by millions of popular votes. The election turned on a few states and by remarkably thin margins, which is how you have a man win the presidency while losing the popular vote. How is that an illustration in support of bias?

Examine Fox New's defense of Trump, always. Examine CNN's bashing of Trump, always. Media should be unbiased and report facts and pass along information. But that is not the case in today's mainstreams.
I'll defend both this way: you have the straight news and then you have news programming that isn't trying to be that. Most of the lineup in a 24 hr. operation is going to be geared to draw in and capture the attention of a particular audience. It's a version of op/ed. It is up to people who tune in to realize that Hannity is an op/ed, not an objective word or view on world events, reported with an effort to remove a particular perspective from it.

You are right, you never said it. You just implied it.
I really didn't. I didn't have to believe that in order to make my point about why there's nothing really surprising about the number injured and killed by his efforts.

The same goes for your false assumption that I was confusing basic rifles with assault-styles.
An assertion can be false. An assumption is at best mistaken, because it's not purporting to be the truth, only one potential explanation, in this case one aimed at your curious belief that there was something awry in the final tally of wounded and killed. From a shooter's perspective there really isn't for any number of reasons, most of which I set out in my last on the point, from darkness to distance, adrenaline to shifting positions, to wasting time trying to ignite fuel tanks, etc.

Implying that I had little knowledge of gun mechanics, classifications, etc.
No, implying a lack of understanding or consideration of a number of points that readily answered on the point. I have a good friend who retired from the Marines as a Gunney. I asked him about the tally and if it surprised him. He said it didn't, but that it wouldn't have surprised him if there were double the fatalities either. His tick list was largely in line with mine and he added that a lot of luck is in play when you have people who lack muscle memory response to intensely stressful periods of time. He said that even when he was involved in an ambush situation where he had high ground and numbers, the stress was so intense that the first time he understood the reason for all the drilling he'd been put through and why they put him through it with the levels of stress added in.

Right. But neither of us has crossed that line. Unless, you are implying something without direct statement....
I've already been pretty direct on the point. You appear invested in conspiracy, which is evidence in your repeated resistance to reasonable explanations and in line with your own admissions in terms of investing personally in conspiracy theory. I don't mean to be coy at all.

interesting, coming from an attorney. In court, you don't "prove" innocence or guilt;
We aren't in a courtroom and I haven't suggested standards of proof, which change depending on the nature of the charge. I didn't use any of those terms or do more than note your resistance and apparent investment, as I do above.

Alternate narratives are not necessary for proving guilt or innocence.
Right, though in criminal defense it's a fairly common tactic and most investigations are vitally concerned with motive. The reason for noting it is simple, you appear to believe there's something odd in the narrative given by authority. You don't appear to be able to connect that suspicion to any reasonable narrative that encompasses motive, the thing that moves any real criminal conspiracy.

In the absence of motive and with a contrary narrative that can address your concerns...and there you have it.

These are cases where people's lives are in the balance
What people? The dead are dead. The killer is dead. Absent any reason and evidence to think otherwise only the truth is in the balance. I'm sure the ongoing investigation will provide more understanding in sum.

So you admit that the number of guns present in the pictures does not align with the numbers we are told were present?
I don't note any attempt to stockpile or make a representation with the one or two pictures I've seen. Those don't encompass the entire room, running from window to window. I've seen a couple of limited angle shots with a few of the guns present in them from the total collected by police, according to their report, one you've given me no reason or motive to suspect.

Why then, pray tell, were the guns moved by authorities when forensic pictures were being taken?
What guns in what part of the process and moved by whose accounting?

What is your alternate theory to the quantity of weapons in the pictures being unequal to the number provided, no matter how innocuous?
I answered that before and above. You're assuming a lot of things needlessly.

Right. So why the lack of brass?
Who said there was a lack of brass? Based on what evidence or testimony? Lack of brass directly below the window on the inside of the room? That's easy and I've spoken to it. Now a lot of brass might be in the room, depending on the ejector and the stance of the shooter. And that brass wouldn't be pooled around the gun. But my best guess is that most of it is among the glass below.

Why do none of the reports give the location of missing brass?
Why would they? Who is asking about the brass and why? Outside of a forensic accounting, I don't see the relevance.

Glass is mentioned, but not brass. Is this not reasonable lack of evidence in support of the number of shots fired?
How was glass mentioned in what you read? I mean particularly how. I'm sure the shots fired is a best guess estimate. Especially early. I don't see how they can have more than that.

Also, why did you not mention Cronk?
Because I asked for accounts from authority with shifting numbers. The two media reports you gave me didn't do that and I don't watch YoutTube videos for news.

After all your misdirection on eye witness accounts
What misdirection? Witness reports constitute the early dominating part of the news cycle, because forensic evidence hasn't been fully processed and understood. I noted that and that you're going to get a wide and varying account using that lens. I also mentioned the value of it in points of agreement supported by forensic evidence. I'm explaining something to you that you don't appear to have much experience with to offer reason why your concerns, while initially understandable, shouldn't survive sustained inquiry. That's all I've been doing.

, why not mention Cronk? Could it be that his accounts, actions, and manner are aggravating to your points on media bias and proposed ("accepted") theory?
I'm assuming he's a witness to the event. I've spoken to the problem of relying on any one witness to an event.
 

Ktoyou

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
Wwe are hell bent on making law for all people when we really need to make laws for some persons. here, I am talking about te mentally ill. I know well a good profiler would be able to ascertain with good validity, the Paddock had a high potential for being a mass killer. When to do it, when someone to buy weapons suited for killing in high numbers, rather than common defense weapons or hunting rifles and shotguns.
 

CherubRam

New member
Wwe are hell bent on making law for all people when we really need to make laws for some persons. here, I am talking about te mentally ill. I know well a good profiler would be able to ascertain with good validity, the Paddock had a high potential for being a mass killer. When to do it, when someone to buy weapons suited for killing in high numbers, rather than common defense weapons or hunting rifles and shotguns.

That's a good point. The warning signs were there if anyone should be looking.
 

Ktoyou

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
That's a good point. The warning signs were there if anyone should be looking.

It is more a matter of keeping better records on gun purchases. But rifle and shotgun, fine, but need to buy assault rifle, make in record, if same person buys another, then have issue license, and include any and all mental health history.

Concealed permits are a great idea, and doing full background check and training should be made full always.

Need drive car, get license, same if need buy gun, get license. You need special license to drive a big truck, or have passenger in bus, same with special guns have special license, with full medical background.
 
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