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  • #76
    Originally posted by DoogieTalons View Post
    I simply think it could be either, wieghted in intelligence's favour but further analysis and study would be needed.

    The problem with infinity as a definition is this, where as some say a hundred monkeys typing at random will eventually type shakespear there is also a chance they will hit the same key into infinity. Improbable but just as possible.

    Oh the tennis ball thing, never gonna happen. No matter how the atoms align. The strong force of the walls atoms will always repel the balls atoms no matter what the alignment. Not even a probability. Just never gonna happen. ThePhy's welcome to keep trying though. Its like saying if you throw the negative end of a magnet at another negative end it will eventually attract... it wont.
    Is there a wavefunction associated with the tennis ball? Is the height of the energy barrier presented by the wall finite (though maybe astoundingly large)?
    Last edited by ThePhy; May 20th, 2008, 07:33 AM. Reason: spelling error

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    • #77
      Originally posted by chickenman View Post
      Playing Yahtzee, I have 6 to the fifth combinations (minus 4, since I can't roll a 1, 2, 3, or 4 with 5 dice).
      I think your math is wrong here.

      I can start out planning on making 5 rolls and make a guess (based on mathematical probabilities) as to how many times x result will occur. But after I complete my first roll, my odds are exactly the same on the second roll: I still have the same odds (1:7,772) chance of rolling x result. Long term probabilities are completely irrelevant on each independent roll.
      I agree with all of this. (except for the 1:7,772 odds)

      Now if you roll billions of dice, and each time you add to the equation countless variables, most of which create unfavorable conditions, then you're in trouble. And by unfavorable conditions, I don't just mean something that prevents a consistent roll (like sticking a rock in front of me on one roll that I have to bounce the dice off of). I mean things that change the nature of the dice, change the numbers, add number/sides, etc. Calculation of long-term probabilites is impossible in this case and, again, 100% irrelevant.
      Hmmmm....not sure if this is too good of a case. Of course, with rolling dice, the person rolling will eventually die, etc. Bouncing the dice off of rocks will not chance the probabilities at all. Then of course, dice can be lost, etc.

      But if you are using this to argus against abiogensis, then you have to consider that there can be more favorable conditions that arise along with the unfavorable conditions.

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      • #78
        Originally posted by ThePhy View Post
        As I stated in my post that you quoted in the OP, the amount of time for the MM or tennis ball result is almost incomprehensible.
        Well in 1977 SETI received a "wow" signal. The "wow" signal was a pattern that was abnormal compared to all the other patterns they received to date.

        Do you suppose that the "wow" signal was intelligently designed or a product of randomness?
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        • #79
          Originally posted by Servo View Post
          Exactly! Billions of tries with failed results do not make the next try any more likely to produce the desired result than the very first try did. That is why I do not understand why unlimited time would have anything to do with a random event producing something that could be deemed as intelligent.
          I don't think that anyone is claiming that the probabilities change on individual rolls. (except for chickenman in the last post I responded to)

          What happens it that the probabilities increase as the series gets longer. This is basic probability. If Bob rolls a die once, and Sally rolls a die 100 times, Sally is more likely to have rolled a 5.

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          • #80
            Originally posted by SUTG View Post
            Hmmmm....not sure if this is too good of a case. Of course, with rolling dice, the person rolling will eventually die, etc. Bouncing the dice off of rocks will not chance the probabilities at all. Then of course, dice can be lost, etc.
            <------ SUTG
            Hypothetical questions --->




            Sorry Mary, I borrowed this joke from you.
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            • #81
              Originally posted by Knight View Post
              I think you are making a great point. Probabilities and mathematical equations don't always translate into reality.

              No matter what folks say....
              A tennis ball is never going to pass through a brick wall and a picture of Marilyn Monroe juggling fish isn't going to be generated by random pixels, instead you will simply get "snow" one frame after another frame.

              Doogie why do you suppose that all the same folks that appeal to these crazy random results turn around and appeal to intelligence for a far more simple event (signal from space)?

              Isn't a message from space "bound to happen" through random chance?
              On the MM pic, some posts have roughly considered the actual mathematics of the MM pic. The time is big, really really big. But how does really really big time compare with eternity? Are you saying your God’s eternity is a smidgeon shorter than the answer for the MM thing?

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              • #82
                What about the idea that the signal originated far, far away (say 100 billion light years). That the message is received by SETI, understood, witnessed and verified authentic, was transmitted before we existed to receive it.
                "I will guard my ways That I may not sin with my tongue; I will guard my mouth as with a muzzle While the wicked are in my presence." I was mute and silent, I refrained even from good, And my sorrow grew worse. My heart was hot within me, While I was musing the fire burned; Then I spoke with my tongue:"LORD, make me to know my end And what is the extent of my days; Let me know how transient I am. NASB

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by ThePhy View Post
                  On the MM pic, some posts have roughly considered the actual mathematics of the MM pic. The time is big, really really big. But how does really really big time compare with eternity? Are you saying your God’s eternity a smidgeon shorter than the answer for the MM thing?
                  What does time have to do with it?

                  After all, we aren't removing undesirable results. Every single randomly generated image has the exact same odds of being incomprehensible as the last frame.

                  Can't we solve this once and for all by asking this one question....

                  ThePhy, isn't it hypothetically possible that the picture of Marilyn Monroe will display on the very first try? YES or NO?
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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Knight View Post
                    <------ SUTG
                    Hypothetical questions --->




                    Sorry Mary, I borrowed this joke from you.
                    Ok , have it your way, I'll vote for intelligent life.

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                    • #85
                      Originally posted by student ad x View Post
                      What about the idea that the signal originated far, far away (say 100 billion light years).


                      There's nothing that far away -- the universe isn't that big.

                      That the message is received by SETI, understood, witnessed and verified authentic, was transmitted before we existed to receive it.
                      It would only have a be about 5 billion light years away for this to be true (assuming, of course, that the big bang theory is correct). If you're talking about the existence of human beings, it would only have to be a few hundred thousand.

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Knight View Post
                        What does time have to do with it?
                        Time has lots to do with it. This is like asking the guy at the roulette whell in Vegas if you can keep spinning the wheel for an hour in hopes that your number will come up.

                        ThePhy, isn't it hypothetically possible that the picture of Marilyn Monroe will dispaly on the very first try? YES or NO?
                        YES. I even gave to the math, and it was peer reviewed by Stripe. it is also possible that the SETI message was random. Possibility is just another way of saying probability is greater than zero.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by SUTG View Post
                          Ok , have it your way, I'll vote for intelligent life.
                          Thank you. Sheesh!!! It's like pullin' teeth with you.

                          Now we have an official "clean sweep".

                          100% atheist and agnostic vote for intelligence being the source of the signal.
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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by One Eyed Jack View Post



                            It would only have a be about 5 billion light years away for this to be true (assuming, of course, that the big bang theory is correct).



                            noted
                            "I will guard my ways That I may not sin with my tongue; I will guard my mouth as with a muzzle While the wicked are in my presence." I was mute and silent, I refrained even from good, And my sorrow grew worse. My heart was hot within me, While I was musing the fire burned; Then I spoke with my tongue:"LORD, make me to know my end And what is the extent of my days; Let me know how transient I am. NASB

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Knight View Post

                              ThePhy, isn't it hypothetically possible that the picture of Marilyn Monroe will dispaly on the very first try? YES or NO?
                              I'm wondering how many billions of times an atheist will have to think through the question before he understands it.

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by SUTG View Post
                                Time has lots to do with it. This is like asking the guy at the roulette whell in Vegas if you can keep spinning the wheel for an hour in hopes that your number will come up.
                                True but your number could come up on the first try (as you are about to acknowledge below).

                                I asked...
                                Isn't it hypothetically possible that the picture of Marilyn Monroe will display on the very first try? YES or NO?

                                YES.
                                Excellent!

                                Of course that's true and therefore the appeal to "time" is nothing more than obfuscation. The VERY FIRST signal that SETI received in the 1960's could have been "hello world" and it could of (hypothetically) been produced by random chance.

                                Yet each and every one of you atheists have appealed to intelligent design instead of random chance.
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