NFL 2017

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Colin Kappernick goes down as a hero; who would have thunk it.

I guess "TB-12" had a good passer/efficiency rating day, with five TD's. But the concern, as a homer, is not that the NE offense scored that many points on one of the best defenses in the NFL today, it's that NE's defense gave up that many points to a passer who really is not that good. That passer's passer rating belied the concern of Pats Nation today; this week. He didn't play that well; the Pats D laid an egg. This is just another reason that passer rating is seriously questionable as a reliable metric to compare passer performances, especially across generations.

If defenses are bad, then passer ratings look better than they should, and for a metric that purports to be a measure of the passer's individual contribution to the team's performance, the Houston passer looks like he was a huge contributor to Houston's effort today, but in fact that rating is the Pats defensive rating today, and the higher that number, the worse they played, and they played poorly today.
It's like a feel; a texture, or something like that, that passer/efficiency rating is missing. The texture of today's game was that Brady clinched five touchdowns with a reduced receivers crew, against a withering pass rush/front seven; one of the best defenses in the NFL today. The Houston passer faced a NE defense that was making mistakes, and seemingly systemically. The Belichick of old would be furious, and when Bill Parcells was here, he would have been flipping out for sure. They were playing badly. I can't say the same for Houston; their defense was beaten up by Brady's Pats today; it wasn't a comedy of errors like on the Pats side of the defensive ball, but the passer rating metric doesn't capture that feel, or texture, or some other thing. It interacts with defensive play, it confounds defensive play into passer performance, sometimes, like with Houston's passer today, and it hides superlative passer performance when against superlative defensive performance (it makes exceptional passer performance, against exceptional defense, look average).

The passer rating does nothing to tell us how nonchalantly Brady marched his team down the field during the two-minutes drill that won the game for them today. It's just whatever the yards and completions and the TD said, in the passer rating metric. Brady wasted the Texans legitimately heralded defense during that two-minute drill, but he only gets credit in the passer rating, that doesn't include first downs, or clock management, or anything about how good the defense is playing.

The Pats defense are in a world of hurt right now. Brady can rescue NE in the regular season and get them to the tournament, but they can't win the championships without a better defense than this one, not without Brady walking on water like how he did in his first SB.
 

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Staying in the locker room prohibited any player from disrespecting the flag.




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I like Tomlin and Ben a lot; they're excellent professionals. I was amazed to learn today how dominant the Bears are when hosting the Steelers, that was shocking.
 

tetelestai

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I like Tomlin

Tomlin has a knack for losing to really, really bad teams.

Since 2009, Mike Tomlin has 15 losses to teams with a combined record of 25-90. In six of those losses, the Steelers were favored by 11 points or more.

From 1972-1979, Chuck Noll was 59-1 against teams below .500
 

Nihilo

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Tomlin has a knack for losing to really, really bad teams.

Since 2009, Mike Tomlin has 15 losses to teams with a combined record of 25-90. In six of those losses, the Steelers were favored by 11 points or more.

From 1972-1979, Chuck Noll was 59-1 against teams below .500
What's Tomlin's record against teams below .500? I'm sure it's not equal to Noll's .983, but is it .800 or better?
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
So...midterms and graduation wrap ups have me busy lately, but I wanted to stop by this thread at least.

Curious things happening in the first three weeks. Ratings are down 10%, which is about what's happening with sports in general. It's largely not anthem or kneeling related, given NASCAR is also down and they've all but wrapped themselves in the flag. I'm sure they've lost some fans over it, but if it was substantively related the impact would be larger. Trump's wrong. It's not a massive bail out. And I think that beyond the normal trending every sport is facing there is a hidden culprit unrelated to the controversy.

If you don't believe your team has a shot at the big game you're less likely to follow avidly and the subtle but mounting problem the NFL really has is similar to the one baseball has had to deal with, the perception that a handful of teams are largely in the running and the rest are there to help them on their way. Specifically, New England has been bad for the NFL. Half the league fans barely believe they have a chance of seeing their team in the big game. Outside of Denver, KC, and Pittsburgh, you don't have much reason to be optimistic and haven't for a while. Factor into that the absence of the Jordan saving grace (people were drawn to/convinced by really clever PR that he was someone they could like) of driving interest outside of his fan base. Tom isn't well liked beyond New England. In fact, in 2016 he topped The Sporting News 20 Most Hated in the NFL. Not feared (though he is that) but disliked.

Some suggest it's because he wins, but Jordan rebuts that. Some say it's the leaving a pregnant girlfriend to hook up with a supermodel. Probably a little truth to that one. Then there's the cheating stigma, the sideline temper tantrums, the GQ run, or the sense by some that he was given a mantel long before he'd earned the consideration. But whatever the confluence of particulars that lead to it, having a dominant and unpopular face for the NFL isn't helping the NFL.

Solution? The best thing Brady could do for him and the league is leave New England. I know, I know, but he has an apparently able back up and if he could pull a Manning, take another team to the SB, I really think it could turn the tide of opinion in his favor while giving other AFC teams and fans hope AND make a stronger case for him as a serious GOAT consideration for those who haven't bought into the hype. Look what just getting there with two teams did for Warner. Look what it did for many with Peyton. Yeah, he's really that great wherever he is isn't the worst thing that can be said about you. Even funnier if Brady went to, say, Denver.
 

Nihilo

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Spoiler
So...midterms and graduation wrap ups have me busy lately, but I wanted to stop by this thread at least.

Curious things happening in the first three weeks. Ratings are down 10%, which is about what's happening with sports in general. It's largely not anthem or kneeling related, given NASCAR is also down and they've all but wrapped themselves in the flag. I'm sure they've lost some fans over it, but if it was substantively related the impact would be larger. Trump's wrong. It's not a massive bail out. And I think that beyond the normal trending every sport is facing there is a hidden culprit unrelated to the controversy.

If you don't believe your team has a shot at the big game you're less likely to follow avidly and the subtle but mounting problem the NFL really has is similar to the one baseball has had to deal with, the perception that a handful of teams are largely in the running and the rest are there to help them on their way. Specifically, New England has been bad for the NFL. Half the league fans barely believe they have a chance of seeing their team in the big game. Outside of Denver, KC, and Pittsburgh, you don't have much reason to be optimistic and haven't for a while. Factor into that the absence of the Jordan saving grace (people were drawn to/convinced by really clever PR that he was someone they could like) of driving interest outside of his fan base.
Tom
Spoiler
isn't well liked beyond New England. In fact, in 2016 he topped The Sporting News 20 Most Hated in the NFL. Not feared (though he is that) but disliked.

Some suggest it's because he wins, but Jordan rebuts that. Some say it's the leaving a pregnant girlfriend to hook up with a supermodel. Probably a little truth to that one. Then there's the cheating stigma, the sideline temper tantrums, the GQ run, or the sense by some that he was given a mantel long before he'd earned the consideration. But whatever the confluence of particulars that lead to it, having a dominant and unpopular face for the NFL isn't helping the NFL.

Solution? The best thing Brady could do for him and the league is leave New England. I know, I know, but he has an apparently able back up and if he could pull a Manning, take another team to the SB, I really think it could turn the tide of opinion in his favor while giving other AFC teams and fans hope AND make a stronger case for him as a serious GOAT consideration for those who haven't bought into the hype. Look what just getting there with two teams did for Warner. Look what it did for many with Peyton. Yeah, he's really that great wherever he is isn't the worst thing that can be said about you. Even funnier if Brady went to, say, Denver.
146.2 against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
1. Chi @ GB: 7.5
Prediction: I'm taking the Pack to cover, with the likely win coming by between 7 to 12.
:thumb: 1-0

2. NO @ Mia:
The Line: NO by 2.5
Prediction: Saints.
:thumb: 2-0

3. Buf @ Atl:
The Line: Atl by 8.5
Prediction: Atlanta
:mmph: Disappointing. 2-1

4. Cin @ Cle:
The Line: Cin by 2.5
Prediction
: Bengals
:thumb: 3-1

5. Rams @ Dal
The Line: Cowboys by 8.5
Prediction: It's a big line given that Dallas will need to produce on the ground...but if they get that ground game going it should be enough to cover. I'll put my neck out anyway. Cowboys.
Ah, well. It was worth the risk. 3-2

6. Det @ Min:
The Line: Vikings by 2.5
Prediction: Lions
:thumb: 4-2

7. Ten @ Hou:
The Line: Ten by 1.5
Prediction: At home and given the Titan's pass coverage isn't that much better than New England's, I'm going to take a flyer on the marginal upset and call it for Houston.
Looks like they've finally found a qb in Houston. :thumb: 5-2

8. Car @ NE:
The Line: NE by 9.5
Prediction: It's hard to pick against New England given the anemic performance of not so Superman and co...but I hate this line. I'll take Carolina for the heck of it to keep it closer.

Way to go Cam and Co. :thumb: 6-2

9. Jac @ Jets
The Line: Jac by 3.5
Prediction: I took the Jags. These are two hard teams to figure week to week. :mmph: 6-3

10. Pit @ Bal
The line:Steelers by 2.5
Prediction: Steelers 7-3 :thumb: Thought it would be a better game.

11. Gia @ TB
The line: TB by 3.5
Prediction: Gia :thumb: 8-3

12. Philly @ SD (yeah, I'm still calling them that)
The line: .5 SD
Prediction: Philly :thumb: 9-3

13. SF @ Arz
The line: Arz 7.5
Prediction: SF because I don't have much confidence in the Cardinals as an offense. I'm calling this a win because it's over time and there's no way for Arz to cover now :thumb: 10-3

14. Oak @ Den
Line: 2.5 Den
Prediction: at home? Sure. Denver. :thumb: 11-3

So no matter what happens tonight I'm having a great week, which is nice after the last two 8 win weeks.

15. Ind @ Sea
The line: Sea 13.5
Prediction: Indy because I'm not sold on their offensive line play. They should win though.

16. Was @ KC
The line: KC by 6.5
Prediction: a good test to see if KC can remain the one fairly consistent team. I'll take the Chiefs.
 
Last edited:

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
146.2 against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday.
Houston is a solid, but not great defense living off the reputation of a PR machine called Watt. Tom had a great game. And he was great against a much weaker Saints. But against KC? He had a forgettable performance.

Not sure how that or "Tom" was responsive to the quotes preceding them, but...anyhow. :)
 

Nihilo

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Spoiler
So...midterms and graduation wrap ups have me busy lately, but I wanted to stop by this thread at least.

Curious things happening in the first three weeks. Ratings are down 10%, which is about what's happening with sports in general. It's largely not anthem or kneeling related, given
NASCAR
Spoiler
is also down and they've all but wrapped themselves in the flag. I'm sure they've lost some fans over it, but if it was substantively related the impact would be larger. Trump's wrong. It's not a massive bail out. And I think that beyond the normal trending every sport is facing there is a hidden culprit unrelated to the controversy.

If you don't believe your team has a shot at the big game you're less likely to follow avidly and the subtle but mounting problem the NFL really has is similar to the one baseball has had to deal with, the perception that a handful of teams are largely in the running and the rest are there to help them on their way. Specifically,
New England has been bad for the NFL
Spoiler
. Half the league fans barely believe they have a chance of seeing their team in the big game. Outside of Denver, KC, and Pittsburgh, you don't have much reason to be optimistic and haven't for a while. Factor into that the absence of the Jordan saving grace (people were drawn to/convinced by really clever PR that he was someone they could like) of driving interest outside of his fan base. Tom isn't well liked beyond New England. In fact, in 2016 he topped The Sporting News 20 Most Hated in the NFL. Not feared (though he is that) but disliked.

Some suggest it's because he wins, but Jordan rebuts that. Some say it's the leaving a pregnant girlfriend to hook up with a supermodel. Probably a little truth to that one. Then there's the cheating stigma, the sideline temper tantrums, the GQ run, or the sense by some that he was given a mantel long before he'd earned the consideration. But whatever the confluence of particulars that lead to it, having a dominant and unpopular face for the NFL isn't helping the NFL.

Solution? The best thing Brady could do for him and the league is leave New England. I know, I know, but he has an apparently able back up and if he could pull a Manning, take another team to the SB, I really think it could turn the tide of opinion in his favor while giving other AFC teams and fans hope AND make a stronger case for him as a serious GOAT consideration for those who haven't bought into the hype. Look what just getting there with two teams did for Warner. Look what it did for many with Peyton. Yeah, he's really that great wherever he is isn't the worst thing that can be said about you. Even funnier if Brady went to, say, Denver.
There were lots of NASCAR fans who hated (in a WWE kind of way; as a heel) Jeff Gordon, and Jimmy Johnson, because they always won, and Johnson still does always win. There's something we don't like about dominance, it's a social penalty we impose upon the most successful people, maybe just to keep them humble. In a way, being hated irrationally lends more evidence to the argument that Brady is the best ever (an argument I am not making, because of the stats that Montana has, forever, unchangeably, etched in diamond reinforced iron, in his four SBs .. no matter how hard anybody might try, they cannot dislodge Montana's flag, at least not with Brady; maybe someday, someone, but not Brady).

But all of that is of course in the shadow of cheating by his coach. Statistics bear out that deflategate, if it was legitimately a conspiracy to break the rules (that were not being enforced, which is how it was possible to do it), that it was for the kicking game, and not the passing game, that it was done. Gostkowski's performance in one game cost the Pats the SB the year after deflategate (the year Manning won it), though that was coupled with a poor performance by Brady in the same game (i.e., if either of them had played better in that AFC championship game, the Pats doubtlessly would have won the SB that year, since their defense was equal to Denver's, and their offense was better). Nonetheless, Brady's performance has improved since deflategate, which puts him in league with Rodgers who also performs better when the ball is inflated more, and not less.

All's to say is that we penalize dominance. We break up Ma Bell, when we can. We prefer parity, we prefer to not know the outcome of a game or race before it starts. When an individual, like say Jeff Gordon, or Jimmy Johnson (both or whom are wonderful people), or Tom Brady, is themselves "Ma Bell," we can't break them up into "Baby Bells," so we have to live with them. 40 years old is when we can start the countdown, but there's no telling what they'll do in the meantime, and they still may be on top when they do hang up the cleats/drivers gloves.

What can you do? :idunno: Just wait. :)
 

Nihilo

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Houston is a solid, but not great defense living off the reputation of a PR machine called Watt. Tom had a great game. And he was great against a much weaker Saints. But against KC? He had a forgettable performance.
Which makes his season rating of 121.5 that much more impressive. Of course, being three games in, this is only maybe the start of another dominant season by no. 12. Too soon to tell. But even in KC, he did not throw a pick, and he's flawless on that mark through three, which is always the right way to begin a dominant season. Turnover ratios correlate directly to wins and losses, whereas points scored depends upon other aspects of the game (like the defense), and this is why not throwing interceptions should be either more highly valued in the passer/efficiency rating, or throwing interceptions should be more heavily penalized. Note that Rodgers in Green Bay is not off to a great start, but he has the talent and the guts to unravel a winning season still. Three games is too soon to tell anything.
Not sure how that or "Tom" was responsive to the quotes preceding them, but...anyhow. :)
Most of your post was about Brady.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
There were lots of NASCAR fans who hated (in a WWE kind of way; as a heel) Jeff Gordon, and Jimmy Johnson, because they always won, and Johnson still does always win. There's something we don't like about dominance, it's a social penalty we impose upon the most successful people, maybe just to keep them humble.
I think it takes something unusual to generate enthusiasm for the overdog. Mostly it's about coupling greatness with a personal magnetism and appeal. The latter can be glossed and manufactured, as it was with Jordan. He was dominant, undeniably great, and seemingly likeable. The cartoon movies, the Bird commercials, Coke commercials where he appeared to be someone you'd want to see succeed. Few athletes are in a position for that confluence or can pull it off. It's harder today, with social media giving us instant insights into the privileged lives of athletes and the seamy side of personalities.

In a way, being hated irrationally lends more evidence to the argument that Brady is the best ever (an argument I am not making, because of the stats that Montana has, forever, unchangeably, etched in diamond reinforced iron, in his four SBs .. no matter how hard anybody might try, they cannot dislodge Montana's flag, at least not with Brady; maybe someday, someone, but not Brady).
We agree on Montana. I don't believe he'd have been that popular if he'd been as dominant as Brady has been in his time without a lot of packaging. Joe was dull. They sold it as cool and that worked, but once he was done and tried to stand in close to the cameras people weren't wowed and he quickly retreated behind the legendary status and affection he'd generated. The Young/Chiefs debacle helped Joe too.

But all of that is of course in the shadow of cheating by his coach. Statistics bear out that deflategate, if it was legitimately a conspiracy to break the rules (that were not being enforced, which is how it was possible to do it), that it was for the kicking game, and not the passing game, that it was done. Gostkowski's performance in one game cost the Pats the SB the year after deflategate (the year Manning won it), though that was coupled with a poor performance by Brady in the same game (i.e., if either of them had played better in that AFC championship game, the Pats doubtlessly would have won the SB that year, since their defense was equal to Denver's, and their offense was better). Nonetheless, Brady's performance has improved since deflategate, which puts him in league with Rodgers who also performs better when the ball is inflated more, and not less.
Brady is a great, great qb. I think Rodgers may be better than anyone I've seen. His tool set is superior to anyone playing and has been for a while, but his teams have been unbalanced and inconsistent. I think that got to him for a bit, but he appears to have rebounded.

All's to say is that we penalize dominance. We break up Ma Bell, when we can. We prefer parity, we prefer to not know the outcome of a game or race before it starts.
I'll disagree a little. I think we want the realistic possibility that anyone has a shot. That's not quite the same thing as real parity. Most people knew the Celtics didn't quite have the talent of the Lakers during the Magic/Bird years, but they believed Larry and company could rise up and overcome that edge in a given series, which they did. I think people want that on the larger stage as well. It's better for the game when back to back champions are unusual and when a dynasty is a team that wins three and maybe four SBs in the lifetime of its signal caller. Longer than that and it can begin to dull the enthusiasms for at least half the league. I think that's nearly what we're seeing.

What can you do? :idunno: Just wait. :)
My ideal scenario? Brady gets dinged enough to bring in the backup, who then rides into the playoffs and makes enough of a splash that everyone knows it's time for Tom move on, a-la Manning. Then let Tom take another team, like Houston, to the promised land and retire. People who didn't like him and wouldn't normally root for him would be caught up in it. Good for the game and good for Tom's legacy.

Which makes his season rating of 121.5 that much more impressive.
I don't see that. He had a pad your stats outing against the anemic defense of the Saints and great game against a solid defense. Those offset his lack of meeting the bar in the one game he had against a top tier defense. I agree though that it's hard to really judge anything three games in...it takes me to the near half season before I feel solid about team performances.
 

Nihilo

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I think it takes something unusual to generate enthusiasm for the overdog. Mostly it's about coupling greatness with a personal magnetism and appeal. The latter can be glossed and manufactured, as it was with Jordan. He was dominant, undeniably great, and seemingly likeable. The cartoon movies, the Bird commercials, Coke commercials where he appeared to be someone you'd want to see succeed. Few athletes are in a position for that confluence or can pull it off. It's harder today, with social media giving us instant insights into the privileged lives of athletes and the seamy side of personalities.


We agree on Montana. I don't believe he'd have been that popular if he'd been as dominant as Brady has been in his time without a lot of packaging. Joe was dull. They sold it as cool and that worked, but once he was done and tried to stand in close to the cameras people weren't wowed and he quickly retreated behind the legendary status and affection he'd generated. The Young/Chiefs debacle helped Joe too.
You have a point there. Perhaps it's a social penalty for unlikable dominance. But that was what I was trying to get at, in mentioning Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson in NASCAR. Those guys are likable, good guys, and fans who do not root for them hate them all the same, so what is the real issue; is it the likability factor, or just that they're beating your favorites? Which again, just goes to us not liking dominance itself, because dominance is always in the context of competition. Nobody'd buy tickets to watch Jeff Gordon race around an empty track, just trying to make a good time. It's the competition that we savor, and it's the superhuman dominance within the context of competition that we despise.
Brady is a great, great qb. I think Rodgers may be better than anyone I've seen. His tool set is superior to anyone playing and has been for a while, but his teams have been unbalanced and inconsistent. I think that got to him for a bit, but he appears to have rebounded.
His legacy'll be plagued by a lack of rings, the more time goes on. He's playing a game that's point is to win, above every lawful thing. Cheating will tarnish Belichick the more time goes on, but Brady and Rodgers will be judged partly based on championships, which I think is correct.
I'll disagree a little. I think we want the realistic possibility that anyone has a shot. That's not quite the same thing as real parity. Most people knew the Celtics didn't quite have the talent of the Lakers during the Magic/Bird years, but they believed Larry and company could rise up and overcome that edge in a given series, which they did. I think people want that on the larger stage as well. It's better for the game when back to back champions are unusual and when a dynasty is a team that wins three and maybe four SBs in the lifetime of its signal caller. Longer than that and it can begin to dull the enthusiasms for at least half the league. I think that's nearly what we're seeing.
You caught me: I used hyperbole in saying that we want parity; you're right that it isn't strict parity, but along the spectrum from parity on one side, and dominance on the other, we want something in the middle, but unmistakably closer to parity than to unmitigated dominance.
My ideal scenario? Brady gets dinged enough to bring in the backup, who then rides into the playoffs and makes enough of a splash that everyone knows it's time for Tom move on, a-la Manning. Then let Tom take another team, like Houston, to the promised land and retire. People who didn't like him and wouldn't normally root for him would be caught up in it. Good for the game and good for Tom's legacy.
Meh. He's too old to come into a new program and get the program to do what they need to do, so that he can do what he can do, in enough time left for him to do anything. But I root for him, and if his team played against the Pats, I'd root for him to play well, but I'd have to wait and see if I'd root for him to beat NE or not. :)
I don't see that. He had a pad your stats outing against the anemic defense of the Saints
Unnecessarily uncharitable. Would you have preferred him to not play well? You're penalizing him for playing well. He played very well against the Saints, with a diminished receiving crew, like against Houston.
and great game against a solid defense. Those offset his lack of meeting the bar in the one game he had against a top tier defense. I agree though that it's hard to really judge anything three games in...it takes me to the near half season before I feel solid about team performances.
The first game of any season, Belichick has said, means next nothing. What matters more than the first game, win or lose, is how you play the second game of the season. The second game is a greater test than the first. After that, all the games converge to maximum importance, with the SB being the final and most important challenge.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
You have a point there. Perhaps it's a social penalty for unlikable dominance.
I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't in there, along with simple self-interest. As long as you and yours are on top me and mine can't be, so you have to trade me something for that. Jordan sold himself as the guy you'd want to hang out with or see deliver a Coke to your kids, even though we've come to learn he was largely not that thing at all. Magic was great at selling an image. He was the basketball equivalent to Favre, playing with an open joy that resonated with people who weren't pulling for the Lakers. That even spilled onto Bird once the two were seen as mutually admiring rivals.

on Rodgers...
His legacy'll be plagued by a lack of rings, the more time goes on.
I'm not sure about either of those assumptions. Marino is widely regarded as a top eight to five all time qb and he only got to one, which he lost. Rodgers won one already and most fans know Green Bay isn't the sort of market that tends to draw a lot of free agents to it. If he wins another one and keeps playing at this level he'll be in the mix when it comes to the glut of great modern qbs we've seen, from Brady and Peyton, to the star crossed Rivers and Brees. I think we'll have to break it into smaller considerations. I'd put Montana/Elway/Marino in one period and Brady and company in another because of how the game changed for qbs, wrs and defenses.

Cheating will tarnish Belichick the more time goes on, but Brady and Rodgers will be judged partly based on championships, which I think is correct.
I think it's already cost Tom, though not as much as the Giants losses, especially the first. You could throw the rest out and losing with that all time NFL offense would keep him out of Montana reach for many no matter what else he managed. But I'd say deflate gate gave a lot of people who might have considered the first cheating scandal a coaching matter reason to think of Tom as less removed from it. Ultimately, Rodgers is shaping up to present a compelling argument that all he really lacked was consistently great coaching and teammates.

On a Brady sequel...
Meh. He's too old to come into a new program and get the program to do what they need to do, so that he can do what he can do, in enough time left for him to do anything.
Barring injury I'm not sure about that. He could take a few teams to the big game. I noted a couple. And given his level of play I wouldn't be surprised to see him this good for at least two more years. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the wheels fall off before the season is over. We're in largely unexplored territory...but then again, look what Favre managed late, if like a light bulb about to burn out. Brady is in better condition than Favre and doesn't have the past issues Favre had with substances. It would have to be a next year move, but it's not beyond the realm of the possible. Assuming he'd be interested. He's one of the few I wouldn't put a late Favre/Peyton rally past.

But I root for him, and if his team played against the Pats, I'd root for him to play well, but I'd have to wait and see if I'd root for him to beat NE or not. :)
I had a taste of that consideration when Manning left the Colts. Not pleasant.

On where Tom is presently...
Unnecessarily uncharitable.
I don't see why. I was providing context. The Saints give up more yards than anyone other than the Pats through three. They can't stop the pass effectively at all. Bradford put up nearly 350 and 3 tds on them, then Brady put up nearly 450 and 3 tds. Cam had a bad day against them, but he's been having bad days against everyone (I might have to reconsider his next one).

Would you have preferred him to not play well?
I don't root for him, so it's immaterial to me. I simply note how he plays and in what context.

You're penalizing him for playing well.
No. I'm noting that his numbers/rating in a three game stretch were inflated by play against a really bad defense in New Orleans and a decent but not great (at present) defense in Houston. And I noted that the one top defense he played made him look less than terrific. Will he beat top tier defenses? Sure. He's a great qb. But more often than not even great qbs look okay, but less often great against the best defenses.

He played very well against the Saints, with a diminished receiving crew, like against Houston.
And he's averaging over 9 yards a completion, on pace to put up 5,800 yds, 42 tds and 0 ints. :plain: See what I mean? As for who he has on hand, if you're accurate enough and the secondary is bad enough it really doesn't matter. All you need is a decent set or wrs (and he has that) and he has Gronk as a relief valve. That ain't hay.


The first game of any season, Belichick has said, means next nothing. What matters more than the first game, win or lose, is how you play the second game of the season.
Easily one of the funniest and more self-serving comments by Bill then. :) Lucky break that second game was against a defensive creampuff . I wonder what tune he'd have sung if KC had been in that slot. :think: I'm thinking it might have been different.

The second game is a greater test than the first. After that, all the games converge to maximum importance, with the SB being the final and most important challenge.
Unless you're losing or the game on point is a division rival, games don't get more or less important by chronology short of the playoffs.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Ten @ Hou:

The Line: Ten by 1.5
The money: 59/41 to cover.
Analysis: It really depends on qb play by Houston. If they get enough of that they can beat Tennessee. Houston is middle of the pack against both the pass and run. Tennessee is middling against the run, but has trouble stopping the pass, which is why Watson has to look like he did against New England for them to win this ballgame...The Titans have a great ground game to compliment their pass and keep defenses honest. .

Prediction: At home and given the Titan's pass coverage isn't that much better than New England's, I'm going to take a flyer on the marginal upset and call it for Houston.

I suffered my first loss against the line last week by taking the Eagles and giving six points. Now I am 5-1 against the line.

This week I take the Titans and give the points.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
I suffered my first loss against the line last week by taking the Eagles and giving six points. Now I am 5-1 against the line.

This week I take the Titans and give the points.
This one is a statistical coin flip. It would not be a game to bet for that reason without a significant line/betting imbalance and that's just not there. The good news is that you're about as likely to win as lose most of the close games so it actually increases your chances over games that appear more lopsided but are line traps.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Interesting fact: if you played against the line on every game, without considering the teams involved, you'd be 29 - 18 now with a win percentage of about 62%.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
I didn't realize until lately how much the Rams have improved this year. They have their own set of triplets and those players are playing great at this point in time! The key for a win for the Boys this week is getting to Goff. If they can't do that then the game is a toss-up.
 

intojoy

BANNED
Banned
I didn't realize until lately how much the Rams have improved this year. They have their own set of triplets and those players are playing great at this point in time! The key for a win for the Boys this week is getting to Goff. If they can't do that then the game is a toss-up.

Rams are losers.


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