Mostly a matter of time. If I was putting money in it I'd put a lot more work into the numbers than I'm interested in at present. I did bet sports before my conversion. I stuck with series baseball and NFL games, because I found that as with dog racing if you spent enough time breaking it down you really could make the right statistical call enough to make money at it.
I'm too busy with school to attempt it and since I don't gamble anymore I haven't found that level of interest.
Okay, looking back over the games so far...
KC @ NE: While I didn't think Brady (sans a dependable weapon) would play pinball with KC or make that big a number, losing and losing the way they did certainly surprised me. I had it a 28 - 21 contest because of Brady not having the full complement and KC playing well away with that defense. This would have been the one game I took and put money on because it had all the earmarks of a line upset to me and the general money was going nuts the other way.
Alex ends the day with a 148 and Brady pulls an embarrassing 70...astonishing, but until it happens again you have to think both signal callers had a rare day.
Atl @ Chi: Nervous about this mostly because I hate a dome team playing in the elements on the road and you didn't know what was going to happen offensively with the Bears. Now we do. Ryan's 116 was expected, but the point production, even on the road, was much lower than I expected, which cost me the game by line. Chicago looks to be competitive this year. I'd have been tempted, but likely stayed away from this one because Atlanta is a temperamental dome team and I hated betting them outside of the structures.
Jets @ Buf: nothing to see here. Taylor looked like a good qb on a mediocre team and the Jests looked like they need a qb. Same ol.
Bal @ Cin: I thought this one would be a fg either way without a lot of scoring. A game only a mother loves. What the actual outcome portends is anyone's guess. It certainly makes next week more interesting for fans of either.
Pit @ Cle: How surprising is this? I actually had the Steelers covering. But I never like to wade into a rookie qb situation if there's any defense to speak of. That can narrow the gap considerably if the rookie has talent, given the absence of a book.
Arz @ Det: was a pick'em game for everyone watching. That's reason enough to stay away from it. Money was moving solidly into the visitor's end late. Palmer was awful. Was last year foreshadowing or was this just one of those road games? A repeatable theme for the week as a number of good qbs had off days while rookies and those who normally don't shine were brilliant.
Oak @ Ten: two hot qbs last year who saw promise ended by injury. Both looked pretty good. Looked like another push. The half point line said the same...redzone made the difference. The Titans need to get Henry more involved and the offense needs to be more creative inside the 20.
Phi @ Was: another push, where Cousins looked wan without run support and Wentz continued to build the hopes of the Philly faithful with a strong outing.
Jac @ Hou: ...just who the heck cares anymore? The curse of Manning continues in Houston. Jac? Don't write home just yet.
Sea @ GB: talked about this one earlier. Line play for Seattle failed and GB played surprisingly good defense. A good beginning for the Pack.
Car @ SF: I know it's on the road and I know Cam had a really good day, but I expected him to light this team up. I'm a little worried that he didn't.
Gia @ Dal: at full strength 9 - 20 Cowboys. But the Giant's weren't and that took a few away. They both looked as expected otherwise. I think New York will play them tougher down the road. Great start for Dallas though.
UPCOMING:
NO @ Min: home sweet homecoming for AP? The Saints are playing a solid opponent and still have serious defensive questions to answer. If you like the Saints you need to hope a shift to more running might help rest the D and keep opposing offenses on the sideline. You certainly have the offensive firepower to play last man standing...I have the Vikings and 3, so I'm taking the half point and running with it...well, without actual money on the line.
SD @ Den: I know, but two LA teams is just irritating. I like Denver by a td in this one, so I can live more comfortably with the 3.5...but Rivers can light it up on the road and Denver has yet to produce an heir for Peyton. Will this be the game that begins the search or settles?
