Week 7
1.
Chi @ GB: The statistical edge on average (SEA) is around 10.5 and the sim is running about 11 for me and 15 for Vegas. So I'm going with Green Bay to cover the 9.5 on this one. Potential spoiler? They'll have to do it one dimensionally. A way for Rodgers to make a statement, one way or the other. (the game should be well on by now, but I'm busy...I don't think I've watched an entire game so far this season).
2.
Gia @ LA: The Giants are a 2.5 road favorite. The SEA is actually a 2 pt edge for the Giants. Vegas sim (VS) is 4 pts for LA. It's essentially a push, but I have more faith in the Giants after the way they put the brakes on NO aerial attack.
3.
Buf @ Mia: on paper it looks like a blowout. The Bills have around a 12 pt SEA advantage, but if the line was more than 3 I'd worry, because as bad as Miami is they can slow you down enough to hold the score down with their running game. At 2.5 I don't care what the sims are.
4.
Cle @ Cin: 9.5 is a lot of points for a Bengals team that hasn't inspired confidence this year. They're actually averaging around the same offensive output as the Browns (ouch) and their combined SAE is a meager 5 against that line...but the level of competition has been better for the Bengals and the best team Cleveland faced didn't have it's starting qb playing (and they still killed the Browns). So I'm running with the sims, mine and Vegas, both showing it a little over two tds. Cin to cover.
5.
Was @ Det: a curious 1.5 fav for Det. Curious because Was is 2-1 and Detroit is 2-3. Or not so given these teams are fairly evenly matched. A pick'em game with the home team getting the nod. I'll take the action and gamble on Washington.
6.
Ind @ Ten: The Titans are better than you'd think. My Colts are in need of a lot of help. The SEA is 4 pts in favor of the Titans. The sim spread is between 7 and 20 pts. Nothing looks good for Indy outside of the proverbial punchers chance. A homer bet I'm not taking. With Ten and 2.5 I'm in. Titans.
7.
NO @ KC: The Chiefs are a 6.5 fav. The SEA is right at 5 for KC. Sims are running about 2 tds as well. In the end it's about whether KC plays the defense they're capable of or if the Saints can stop a three game skid. With the exception of Atlanta, they've hung close to the other guy or beat them. I'll take New Orleans to keep it closer or win outright with my upset special.
8.
Oak @ Jac: the Jags are a sneeze and you miss it .5 pt favorite. The SEA is .7 Jags. It's that sort of game in a week filled with them. Vegas sim likes Jacksonville and 11. I have it a dead heat. I'll take Oakland and a fg to win on the road.
9.
Min @ Phi: the Vikings are another close favorite by 2.5. The SEA is .2 for Philly...that's slim. Vegas sims is 1 pt for Philly. Mine is 5 for Min. Both teams had a confidence builder in their last outing. Philly won big at home against nothing much. The Vikings took Ten on the road. I'm going with my sim and that road confidence to come through again. Minnesota.
10.
Bal @ Jets: the mercurial Jests are a .5 point favorite. Baltimore has mostly given me grief this year. Until last week New York couldn't put together much offense. Baltimore knows how to win close. I'll try my luck with the Ravens again.
11.
SD @ Atl: hot dang, the game we've waited for with the Falcons a strong 6.5 fav. The SEA on this one is 2.5. The sims agree on a 10 pt Atlanta advantage, so why is this one making me nervous? In a word, Rivers. He's kept the Chargers within 4 in each of their losses, including the high octane Saints. And he's beaten good defense (see: Broncos). I like the Falcons, but I can't give those points against SD, not matter what my sim tells me.
12.
TB @ SF: TB is a 1.5 fav. The SEA is a wash. The sims are running...Vegas has it SF by as much as 9 and mine says the more likely outcome favors TB. Someone has to win. Tampa has at least shown they can win.
13.
NE @ Pit: without Ben I don't care about the numbers. Can the Pats move the ball well enough to cover a 7.5 spread? Everything we've seen so far says yes.
14.
Sea @ Arz: Cardinals are a 1.5 fav. The SEA is Arizona and not quite 3. The sims are between 5 and 8 for Arizona. Another game I'm looking forward to that will give us a clear view of what we can expect. moving toward the home stretch.
15.
Hou @ Den: The revenge game...either way. You can't miss this.
Denver is a 7.5 fav, The SEA and sims have Denver 2 tds or better. I think Denver covers but I want to see it. If the ex is going to shine it should be against the defense he knows best.
