climate change

[tetelestai]

You might have missed the two million people displaced from the Syrian countryside over the last few years due to extended drought conditions,

So, now all the snow across the USA, and all the ice in the Antarctic is from an increase of precipitation, which is allegedly due to global warming, but at the same time a drought is because of global warming.

Do you guys ever get tired of talking out of both sides of your mouth?

 

[gcthomas]

The models closely predicted this year's ice cover, but failed to pick the exceptionally low ice from two years ago. The models seem to track close the the records of measurements, so in what way can they be dismissed as wrong?

 

[tetelestai]

The models closely predicted this year's ice cover, but failed to pick the exceptionally low cost from two years ago. The models seem to talk close the the records of measurements, so in what way can they be dismissed as wrong?

Show me a model prior to September 2012 that even came close to predicting TWO MILLION square kilometers of NEW ice?

If your models existed, then Al Gore and all the other Chicken Littles wouldn't have been going around telling everyone the Arctic would be ice free in 2014.

 

[gcthomas]

Show me a model prior to September 2012 that even came close to predicting TWO MILLION square kilometers of NEW ice?

If your models existed, then Al Gore and all the other Chicken Littles wouldn't have been going around telling everyone the Arctic would be ice free in 2014.

The models you have seen all have very large year on year fluctuations (noise) superimposed on a general 10% per decade reduction. Each model predicts 2M sq mi variations. Predicting exact values years ahead is a hard problem, but the trends are good, if a little too much was predicted, as the real trend is towards slightly less ice than the model.

 

[gcthomas]

So, now all the snow across the USA, and all the ice in the Antarctic is from an increase of precipitation, which is allegedly due to global warming, but at the same time a drought is because of global warming.

Do you guys ever get tired of talking out of both sides of your mouth?

Global warming, as you really must know by now, causes variations in climate patterns, which changes the pattern of the weather. Which particular changes you get depends on the pattern of the warming and your location. The extreme weather in the US was just that - weather - not climate, unless the pattern is repeated on more years.

The Antarctic changes (extra snow/ice along with the warmer sea and air temperatures and stronger winds) is a feature of all climate change models I have heard of over the last decade or two.

The story is consistent, but your selective interpretation is variable.

 

[resurrected]

Global warming, as you really must know by now, causes variations in climate patterns....

which never happened before the industrial revolution :chuckle:

 

[The Barbarian]

I asked for one cite from the literature, saying the Arctic Ocean was going to be ice-free by 2014, but (as expected) tetelestai couldn't find one. For the same reason he's not going to find a unicorn in his closet.

Chicken Little - someone who is winning an argument with tetelestai.

 

[Stripe]

http://www.theologyonline.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4052934#post4052934

 

[Frank Ernest]

I asked for one cite from the literature, saying the Arctic Ocean was going to be ice-free by 2014, but (as expected) tetelestai couldn't find one. For the same reason he's not going to find a unicorn in his closet.

Chicken Little - someone who is winning an argument with tetelestai.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

 

[The Barbarian]

Barbarian chuckles:
I asked for one cite from the literature, saying the Arctic Ocean was going to be ice-free by 2014, but (as expected) tetelestai couldn't find one. For the same reason he's not going to find a unicorn in his closet.

(tetelestai runs away)

(Frank can't find one, either, but he found a news program that quoted a scientist as saying it could happen)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Yep. Thanks for making my point for me.

 

[gcthomas]

Barbarian chuckles:
I asked for one cite from the literature, saying the Arctic Ocean was going to be ice-free by 2014, but (as expected) tetelestai couldn't find one. For the same reason he's not going to find a unicorn in his closet.

(tetelestai runs away)

(Frank can't find one, either, but he found a news program that quoted a scientist as saying it could happen)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Yep. Thanks for making my point for me.

From the chap's Wikipedia page:

Wiesław Masłowski...

He became well known in 2007 for predicting that the Arctic might be ice free in the summer by 2013 based on computer modeling, a date his team later revised to 2016 "plus or minus three years".

 

[Stripe]

He became well known in 2007 for predicting that the Arctic might be ice free in the summer by 2013 based on computer modeling, a date his team later revised to 2016 "plus or minus three years".

So, we can get back to you on this in 2019 then? Or will you have another set of excuses at that time?

 

[gcthomas]

I didn't make the prediction, Stripe.

I would also note that while virtually all climatologists agree on the clear downward tend, the quoted team provided the shortest timescale. Since that fact is the only reason it made the news you can conclude that the unreported predictions are for a slightly slower decline.

 

[Stripe]

I didn't make the prediction, Stripe. I would also note that while virtually all climatologists agree on the clear downward tend, the quoted team provided the shortest timescale. Since that fact is the only reason it made the news you can conclude that the unreported predictions are for a slightly slower decline.

So, when can we get back to you on something?

Or are all your failed predictions going to come with a slew of excuses?

 

[gcthomas]

So, when can we get back to you on something?

Or are all your failed predictions going to come with a slew of excuses?

Do you have excuses for these?

Failed Predictions for the Second Coming of Christ

Looks like some Christians were out by over 1500 years. The climatologists' predictions vary by at most a few decades.

 

[Stripe]

Do you have excuses for these? Failed Predictions for the Second Coming of Christ Looks like some Christians were out by over 1500 years. The climatologists' predictions vary by at most a few decades.

Ah, the old tu quoque gambit. Evolutionists love that one.

Yes, very many people who have predicted the time of Christ's return have been shown utterly wrong. However, that is not surprising given that Jesus Himself does not know when God the Father will resend Him.

So, we can pencil you in for about 2034 for this ice-free Arctic prediction then? Or are you utterly disinterested in the scientific method?

 

[gcthomas]

Ah, the old tu quoque gambit. Evolutionists love that one.

Yes, very many people who have predicted the time of Christ's return have been shown utterly wrong. However, that is not surprising given that Jesus Himself does not know when God the Father will resend Him.

So, we can pencil you in for about 2034 for this ice-free Arctic prediction then? Or are you utterly disinterested in the scientific method?

I haven't made any predictions, beyond the obvious sea ice decline is likely to continue. Evidence of a sustained reversal at any time over the next few years would be enough to disprove my prediction - have you seen one yet?

 

[The Barbarian]

I would also note that while virtually all climatologists agree on the clear downward tend, the quoted team provided the shortest timescale. Since that fact is the only reason it made the news you can conclude that the unreported predictions are for a slightly slower decline.

It's the favorite tactic of deniers. Find the most extreme dire prediction they can, and then pretend it's the scientific consensus. It's why no one trusts them anymore.

 

[Stripe]

I haven't made any predictions, beyond the obvious sea ice decline is likely to continue. Evidence of a sustained reversal at any time over the next few years would be enough to disprove my prediction - have you seen one yet?

Way to be vague. :thumb:

 

[gcthomas]

Way to be vague. :thumb:

Absolutely!

Only numbskulls feign certainty in the face of the unavoidable uncertainties involved in understanding complex systems. (I'll leave all that nonsense to you.)