Economic Models Point to a Big Win for Trump in 2020
https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/politics/2019/may/economic-models-point-to-a-big-win-for-trump-in-2020
President Donald Trump is likely to win re-election in 2020 according to a wide range of predictive economic models. That's the conclusion from Steven Rattner, a counselor to the treasury secretary under President Obama.
These economic models look at factors such as low unemployment, economic growth, gas prices, and inflation, examining correlations between those statistics and previous US elections
Rattner writes in the New York Times that Trump's re-election chances are looking very good, pointing to the model created by Yale professor Ray Fair. Fair's economic model predicted Obama's wins very accurately, and it said Trump would win in 2016 as well.
"In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received," Rattner writes. Rattner also mentions two other economists, one of whom looked at 12 different economic models, and President Trump wins in all of them
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