Will Black And Latino Voters Deliver Another "Trump Miracle" In 2020?
- Thread starter Jerry Shugart
- Start date
annabenedetti
like marbles on glass
No.
Even if Trump made inroads into minority voters, it wouldn't make up for his alienation of older voters and suburban whites.
In national and key battleground states, the turnaround from four years ago among voters 65 and over is striking. They went strongly for Trump in 2016 and now are solidly with Biden.
Experts and political strategists say this undoubtedly reflects concerns over Trump's mishandling of the Coronavirus pandemic, which disproportionately affects older voters. Those 65 or older are 16 percent of the population, but account for 80 percent of the more than 210,000 U.S. deaths, higher than the percentage of overall death rate of seniors.
This is a cohort that even prior to 2016 had been moving Republican for more than a decade.
Trump captured the senior vote by almost ten points, according to both the 2016 election day exit polls and the Pew Research Center analysis of the vote.
This past week both the Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll and a CNN survey showed the Democrat winning these voters by more than 20 points. That may be exaggerated, but something close to a 20-point turnaround from four years ago is likely.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...p-take-him-out
In national and key battleground states, the turnaround from four years ago among voters 65 and over is striking. They went strongly for Trump in 2016 and now are solidly with Biden.
Experts and political strategists say this undoubtedly reflects concerns over Trump's mishandling of the Coronavirus pandemic, which disproportionately affects older voters. Those 65 or older are 16 percent of the population, but account for 80 percent of the more than 210,000 U.S. deaths, higher than the percentage of overall death rate of seniors.
This is a cohort that even prior to 2016 had been moving Republican for more than a decade.
Trump captured the senior vote by almost ten points, according to both the 2016 election day exit polls and the Pew Research Center analysis of the vote.
This past week both the Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll and a CNN survey showed the Democrat winning these voters by more than 20 points. That may be exaggerated, but something close to a 20-point turnaround from four years ago is likely.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...p-take-him-out
Suburban districts like these have long been critical bases of Republican support, packed with affluent white voters who reliably chose Republicans to represent them in Congress. Democrats seized control of the House in 2018 by making inroads in communities like these, and Republicans have tied their hopes of reclaiming power to preserving their remaining footholds there. But as Mr. Trump continues to stumble in his response to the pandemic and seeks to stir up racist fears with pledges to preserve the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream,” such districts are slipping further from the party’s grasp, and threatening to drag down congressional Republicans in November’s elections.
Interviews with more than two dozen party officials, strategists and voters in areas like these help explain what recent polls have found: that Mr. Trump’s strategy is alienating independent and even some conservative voters — particularly women and better-educated Americans — who are turned off by his partisan appeals and disappointed in his leadership. From the suburbs of St. Louis to Omaha to Houston, they expressed deep concern about Mr. Trump’s approach to twin national crises, lamenting his confident declarations that the coronavirus was under control and his move to stoke racial divides after nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans.
https://distincttoday.net/2020/08/0...voters-sour-on-g-o-p-in-battle-for-the-house/
Interviews with more than two dozen party officials, strategists and voters in areas like these help explain what recent polls have found: that Mr. Trump’s strategy is alienating independent and even some conservative voters — particularly women and better-educated Americans — who are turned off by his partisan appeals and disappointed in his leadership. From the suburbs of St. Louis to Omaha to Houston, they expressed deep concern about Mr. Trump’s approach to twin national crises, lamenting his confident declarations that the coronavirus was under control and his move to stoke racial divides after nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans.
https://distincttoday.net/2020/08/0...voters-sour-on-g-o-p-in-battle-for-the-house/