The Smartest Virus Commentary - By Me

Trump Gurl

Credo in Unum Deum
The best commentary I have heard on what to do next was from... ...me. :chuckle: I posted it in another thread and decided to give it its own thread.

I applied my thoughts to this last night for a while, and I came up with what I believe to be the correct answer on how to move forward.

President Trump needs to strike a balance now, between the risk of the virus and the need of the country to move forward. That is where we are at now. Continued isolation will destroy the economy, the country, and many lives, especially of lower income families. We are now at a point where we must accept the risk and move on with life. Allow me to give you an example:

Regarding motor vehicles: In 2010 in the USA, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions. Records indicate that there were 3,613,732 motor vehicle fatalities in the United States from 1899 to 2013.

As a country we now accept that we must have so many deaths a year using automobiles. Now certainly we could stop all automobile deaths by ordering no more automobiles to be allowed on the road. If we focus narrowly on that one single goal then we could achieve it by just not allowing any more motor vehicles to run. But of course that would destroy the economy and the country. Therefore as a nation we have come to accept the fact that the risk of vehicle deaths is outweighed the need of the country to deliver goods and the need of people to get to work.

This virus situation is no different. We are now at a point where the danger to the people from The Cure is worse than the danger from the virus! We are now at a point where America must get back to work and accept the risks of the virus the same way we accept the risks from all other diseases, or car accidents, or plane accidents, slipping in the shower, and any number of risks that we take every day just by living life.

This is what President Trump is faced with. He must make a decision and I am sure he will make the right one. Sadly there are millions of little worms and pieces of garbage on the sidelines waiting to take him down and attack him for whatever decision he makes. And of course if he makes no decision they will attack him for that too as well as attack him for the resulting destroyed economy.

Speaking for myself I am ready to take the risk that comes with the existence of the virus and move on with life. I take a risk everyday getting in my car, I take a risk everyday getting in the shower, I take a risk everyday that I could catch any number of diseases. It's time to get back to work and let the medical community continue its good work to lessen and lesson the deaths caused by this as they do the deaths caused by all other diseases.

And that is my comment, the smartest one people will hear by the way.
 

Right Divider

Body part
Regarding motor vehicles: In 2010 in the USA, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions. Records indicate that there were 3,613,732 motor vehicle fatalities in the United States from 1899 to 2013.

As a country we now accept that we must have so many deaths a year using automobiles. Now certainly we could stop all automobile deaths by ordering no more automobiles to be allowed on the road. If we focus narrowly on that one single goal then we could achieve it by just not allowing any more motor vehicles to run. But of course that would destroy the economy and the country. Therefore as a nation we have come to accept the fact that the risk of vehicle deaths is outweighed the need of the country to deliver goods and the need of people to get to work.

This virus situation is no different. We are now at a point where the danger to the people from The Cure is worse than the danger from the virus! We are now at a point where America must get back to work and accept the risks of the virus the same way we accept the risks from all other diseases, or car accidents, or plane accidents, slipping in the shower, and any number of risks that we take every day just by living life.
While I agree that we need to strike a balance, there is a problem with this analogy. Automobile deaths are not contagious and do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.
 

Trump Gurl

Credo in Unum Deum
While I agree that we need to strike a balance, there is a problem with this analogy. Automobile deaths are not contagious and do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

True. However, as I said, we have come to accept 33k motor vehicle deaths a year as the price of living our lives. We have also come to accept about the same number a year from the regular flu. If we have to accept the same number for this too then, well, so be it. That's my point.
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
Automobile deaths ... do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

gotta disagree here - used to work in a hospital lab right next to an ED in a major regional hospital that was near a thruway exit - bad weather events would often flood our ED with MVAs, usually at night (the shift I worked) and often when we were short staffed (due to those same weather events) - usually it was cleared up by the next evening, but occasionally not
 

Right Divider

Body part
True. However, as I said, we have come to accept 33k motor vehicle deaths a year as the price of living our lives. We have also come to accept about the same number a year from the regular flu. If we have to accept the same number for this too then, well, so be it. That's my point.

The numbers won't "be the same" compared to the flu. This disease is much more contagious and much more deadly.
 

Right Divider

Body part
gotta disagree here - used to work in a hospital lab right next to an ED in a major regional hospital that was near a thruway exit - bad weather events would often flood our ED with MVAs, usually at night (the shift I worked) and often when we were short staffed (due to those same weather events) - usually it was cleared up by the next evening, but occasionally not
Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.
 

chair

Well-known member
Italy has had 113 deaths per million people, in the past month or so. The US has a population of 327 million. So, at the same death rate as Italy (a bad scenario), the US could have 37,000 deaths a month. A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable? B) Italians are still dying, about 700 every day. It's far from over, though it seems to be leveling off. C) The Italian death rate was "achieved" even though they instituted social distancing- though they started late.
 

Trump Gurl

Credo in Unum Deum
Italy has had 113 deaths per million people, in the past month or so. The US has a population of 327 million. So, at the same death rate as Italy (a bad scenario), the US could have 37,000 deaths a month. A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable? B) Italians are still dying, about 700 every day. It's far from over, though it seems to be leveling off. C) The Italian death rate was "achieved" even though they instituted social distancing- though they started late.


Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?

I am pretty sure we will have a grip on treating the disease soon enough to avoid that. We are Americans. We pout a man on the moon, we defeated three empires at the same time in WWII, and we created the most awesome nation in the history of man. We have cured many, many diseases, and I have faith that we will will have victory again with this one. That's what America does, WIN. While the rest of the world runs, and hides and cries and buckles, we win.

tenor.gif
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.

I agree, but in at least one winter event, all the hospitals from Cleveland to Buffalo to Rochester to Syracuse were affected, including secondaries to the south.

and I wouldn't expect to see the whole country hit at the same time, more of a rolling coverage, concentrated in the urban centers
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?

that's a tough question - one of many

there will be some elevated baseline death rate from this inevitable wave of infection, no matter how perfectly managed

and there will be negative costs to social isolation, beyond financial - at the moment, non-essential surgeries have been postponed or cancelled - for every elderly woman with a delayed hip replacement, you're going to have an increased risk of a fatal fall

that's just off the top of my head - there's a thousand other calculations like that to consider and more


and farmers can't wait for planting season, truckers can't stop doing what they do, grocery stores have to keep open, etc, etc
 

Jonahdog

BANNED
Banned
Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.

One of the issues here is that the disease overwhelms many areas in a hospital. Suppose you have 50 positives. Each needs to be quarantined for 14 +/- days , if they get really sick they take up icu space and equipment. And the health care workers are at risk if they get sick they are not available especially as PPE becomes used/reused etc and then
perhaps unavailable
this is not the same as a slew of MVAs on a snowy weekend
 

chair

Well-known member
Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?

I am pretty sure we will have a grip on treating the disease soon enough to avoid that. We are Americans. We pout a man on the moon, we defeated three empires at the same time in WWII, and we created the most awesome nation in the history of man. We have cured many, many diseases, and I have faith that we will will have victory again with this one. That's what America does, WIN. While the rest of the world runs, and hides and cries and buckles, we win.

tenor.gif

Yes! You Were Great! And The Sun Never Set on the British Empire! And Rome ruled the western World!
This problem isn't going to be solved by patting yourself on the back. America may be able to pull through this, but it ain't gonna be easy, and it's far from a done deal.

It might help if you had a leader who could say things like this:
We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
One of the issues here is that the disease overwhelms many areas in a hospital. Suppose you have 50 positives. Each needs to be quarantined for 14 +/- days , if they get really sick they take up icu space and equipment. And the health care workers are at risk if they get sick they are not available especially as PPE becomes used/reused etc and then
perhaps unavailable
this is not the same as a slew of MVAs on a snowy weekend

not the same, but similar considerations, wrt allocation of scarce resources

in one event, we ran out of clorox for disinfecting the lab workbenches

the biggest concern, as I recall, was staffing. Our third shift staffing came in from areas that were impassible due to snow, and many of us evening shift workers stayed and worked doubles, which was OK with us because many of us couldn't get home anyway

so no, not the same

similar
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
Yes! You Were Great! And The Sun Never Set on the British Empire! And Rome ruled the western World!
This problem isn't going to be solved by patting yourself on the back. America may be able to pull through this, but it ain't gonna be easy, and it's far from a done deal.

It might help if you had a leader who could say things like this:
We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender

I think he's trying to channel this guy instead:
 

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?

Our current death rate is roughly 234,458 per month, so 30,000 additional due to the Chinese Virus would be an additional 12.8%

the smart money would be buying mortuary futures


But that avoids the fact that the 12.8% number is inevitably going to be some non-zero, non-negative value. People are going to die from this.
 
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