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The Smartest Virus Commentary - By Me

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  • The Smartest Virus Commentary - By Me

    The best commentary I have heard on what to do next was from... ...me. I posted it in another thread and decided to give it its own thread.

    I applied my thoughts to this last night for a while, and I came up with what I believe to be the correct answer on how to move forward.

    President Trump needs to strike a balance now, between the risk of the virus and the need of the country to move forward. That is where we are at now. Continued isolation will destroy the economy, the country, and many lives, especially of lower income families. We are now at a point where we must accept the risk and move on with life. Allow me to give you an example:

    Regarding motor vehicles: In 2010 in the USA, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions. Records indicate that there were 3,613,732 motor vehicle fatalities in the United States from 1899 to 2013.

    As a country we now accept that we must have so many deaths a year using automobiles. Now certainly we could stop all automobile deaths by ordering no more automobiles to be allowed on the road. If we focus narrowly on that one single goal then we could achieve it by just not allowing any more motor vehicles to run. But of course that would destroy the economy and the country. Therefore as a nation we have come to accept the fact that the risk of vehicle deaths is outweighed the need of the country to deliver goods and the need of people to get to work.

    This virus situation is no different. We are now at a point where the danger to the people from The Cure is worse than the danger from the virus! We are now at a point where America must get back to work and accept the risks of the virus the same way we accept the risks from all other diseases, or car accidents, or plane accidents, slipping in the shower, and any number of risks that we take every day just by living life.

    This is what President Trump is faced with. He must make a decision and I am sure he will make the right one. Sadly there are millions of little worms and pieces of garbage on the sidelines waiting to take him down and attack him for whatever decision he makes. And of course if he makes no decision they will attack him for that too as well as attack him for the resulting destroyed economy.

    Speaking for myself I am ready to take the risk that comes with the existence of the virus and move on with life. I take a risk everyday getting in my car, I take a risk everyday getting in the shower, I take a risk everyday that I could catch any number of diseases. It's time to get back to work and let the medical community continue its good work to lessen and lesson the deaths caused by this as they do the deaths caused by all other diseases.

    And that is my comment, the smartest one people will hear by the way.


  • #2

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Trump Gurl View Post
      Regarding motor vehicles: In 2010 in the USA, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions. Records indicate that there were 3,613,732 motor vehicle fatalities in the United States from 1899 to 2013.

      As a country we now accept that we must have so many deaths a year using automobiles. Now certainly we could stop all automobile deaths by ordering no more automobiles to be allowed on the road. If we focus narrowly on that one single goal then we could achieve it by just not allowing any more motor vehicles to run. But of course that would destroy the economy and the country. Therefore as a nation we have come to accept the fact that the risk of vehicle deaths is outweighed the need of the country to deliver goods and the need of people to get to work.

      This virus situation is no different. We are now at a point where the danger to the people from The Cure is worse than the danger from the virus! We are now at a point where America must get back to work and accept the risks of the virus the same way we accept the risks from all other diseases, or car accidents, or plane accidents, slipping in the shower, and any number of risks that we take every day just by living life.
      While I agree that we need to strike a balance, there is a problem with this analogy. Automobile deaths are not contagious and do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.
      All of my ancestors are human.
      Originally posted by Squeaky
      That explains why your an idiot.
      Originally posted by God's Truth
      Father figure, Son figure, and Holy Spirit figure.
      Col 2:9 (AKJV/PCE)
      (2:9) For in him dwelleth all the fulness of the Godhead bodily.

      1Tim 4:10 (AKJV/PCE)
      (4:10) For therefore we both labour and suffer reproach, because we trust in the living God, who is the Saviour of all men, specially of those that believe.

      Something that was SPOKEN OF since the world began CANNOT be the SAME thing as something KEPT SECRET since the world began.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Right Divider View Post
        While I agree that we need to strike a balance, there is a problem with this analogy. Automobile deaths are not contagious and do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.
        True. However, as I said, we have come to accept 33k motor vehicle deaths a year as the price of living our lives. We have also come to accept about the same number a year from the regular flu. If we have to accept the same number for this too then, well, so be it. That's my point.

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        • #5
          Grisham: Trump will decide whether to re-open the US after 15-day period

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Right Divider View Post
            Automobile deaths ... do not overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.
            gotta disagree here - used to work in a hospital lab right next to an ED in a major regional hospital that was near a thruway exit - bad weather events would often flood our ED with MVAs, usually at night (the shift I worked) and often when we were short staffed (due to those same weather events) - usually it was cleared up by the next evening, but occasionally not

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Trump Gurl View Post

              True. However, as I said, we have come to accept 33k motor vehicle deaths a year as the price of living our lives. We have also come to accept about the same number a year from the regular flu. If we have to accept the same number for this too then, well, so be it. That's my point.
              The numbers won't "be the same" compared to the flu. This disease is much more contagious and much more deadly.
              All of my ancestors are human.
              Originally posted by Squeaky
              That explains why your an idiot.
              Originally posted by God's Truth
              Father figure, Son figure, and Holy Spirit figure.
              Col 2:9 (AKJV/PCE)
              (2:9) For in him dwelleth all the fulness of the Godhead bodily.

              1Tim 4:10 (AKJV/PCE)
              (4:10) For therefore we both labour and suffer reproach, because we trust in the living God, who is the Saviour of all men, specially of those that believe.

              Something that was SPOKEN OF since the world began CANNOT be the SAME thing as something KEPT SECRET since the world began.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ok doser View Post

                gotta disagree here - used to work in a hospital lab right next to an ED in a major regional hospital that was near a thruway exit - bad weather events would often flood our ED with MVAs, usually at night (the shift I worked) and often when we were short staffed (due to those same weather events) - usually it was cleared up by the next evening, but occasionally not
                Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.

                All of my ancestors are human.
                Originally posted by Squeaky
                That explains why your an idiot.
                Originally posted by God's Truth
                Father figure, Son figure, and Holy Spirit figure.
                Col 2:9 (AKJV/PCE)
                (2:9) For in him dwelleth all the fulness of the Godhead bodily.

                1Tim 4:10 (AKJV/PCE)
                (4:10) For therefore we both labour and suffer reproach, because we trust in the living God, who is the Saviour of all men, specially of those that believe.

                Something that was SPOKEN OF since the world began CANNOT be the SAME thing as something KEPT SECRET since the world began.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Italy has had 113 deaths per million people, in the past month or so. The US has a population of 327 million. So, at the same death rate as Italy (a bad scenario), the US could have 37,000 deaths a month. A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable? B) Italians are still dying, about 700 every day. It's far from over, though it seems to be leveling off. C) The Italian death rate was "achieved" even though they instituted social distancing- though they started late.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by chair View Post
                    Italy has had 113 deaths per million people, in the past month or so. The US has a population of 327 million. So, at the same death rate as Italy (a bad scenario), the US could have 37,000 deaths a month. A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable? B) Italians are still dying, about 700 every day. It's far from over, though it seems to be leveling off. C) The Italian death rate was "achieved" even though they instituted social distancing- though they started late.

                    Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?

                    I am pretty sure we will have a grip on treating the disease soon enough to avoid that. We are Americans. We pout a man on the moon, we defeated three empires at the same time in WWII, and we created the most awesome nation in the history of man. We have cured many, many diseases, and I have faith that we will will have victory again with this one. That's what America does, WIN. While the rest of the world runs, and hides and cries and buckles, we win.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Right Divider View Post
                      Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.
                      I agree, but in at least one winter event, all the hospitals from Cleveland to Buffalo to Rochester to Syracuse were affected, including secondaries to the south.

                      and I wouldn't expect to see the whole country hit at the same time, more of a rolling coverage, concentrated in the urban centers

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by chair View Post
                        A) Would 30,000 a month be acceptable?
                        that's a tough question - one of many

                        there will be some elevated baseline death rate from this inevitable wave of infection, no matter how perfectly managed

                        and there will be negative costs to social isolation, beyond financial - at the moment, non-essential surgeries have been postponed or cancelled - for every elderly woman with a delayed hip replacement, you're going to have an increased risk of a fatal fall

                        that's just off the top of my head - there's a thousand other calculations like that to consider and more


                        and farmers can't wait for planting season, truckers can't stop doing what they do, grocery stores have to keep open, etc, etc

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Trump Gurl View Post
                          ... we defeated three empires at the same time in WWII ...
                          I wouldn't count Italy

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ok doser View Post
                            I wouldn't count Italy
                            Well, okay. Two Empires, and a bunch of hangers on, like Vichy France and Bulgaria.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Right Divider View Post
                              Flooding ONE local hospital (or maybe a few) is hardly the same as flooding the whole country.
                              One of the issues here is that the disease overwhelms many areas in a hospital. Suppose you have 50 positives. Each needs to be quarantined for 14 +/- days , if they get really sick they take up icu space and equipment. And the health care workers are at risk if they get sick they are not available especially as PPE becomes used/reused etc and then
                              perhaps unavailable
                              this is not the same as a slew of MVAs on a snowy weekend

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