I tend to use that one. It's close enough and I don't think they move it after it's posted. I was going to play with it tonight, but we tend to post our own things, so as long as we agree on the line. :thumb: ESPN it is.
NFL 2016
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
- Start date
- Status
pretty soon there will be a NFL game on every night !!!
Quetzal
New member
After last weeks disaster and a hint from Town, I decided to make up a model of my own to see if that helps. I think I will need another week or two to tune it with some more recent data. In the meantime, however, I am curious to see how it turns out. After a disappointing week 1, let's get to it!
At Buffalo -0.5 NY Jets
My Call:
The line believes it is a coin flip (a measly half point against the Bills), which is what makes this choice easy. Rex Ryan doesn't like how much of a beating Taylor was taking and is concerned about his long term health, not that really matters here. I am going with the Jets here, but I think it will be close.
At Detroit -5.5 Tennessee
My Call:
I have Detroit winning by 10 in this one. With the line spotting the Titans 5.5, it should be enough to cover. How is their defense doing, anyway? If the Vikings can knock em around, I look for the Lions to do the same.
At Houston -2.5 Kansas City
My Call:
I gave KC a spot adjustment to the PPG in favor of Houston and my model still loves the Chiefs here. Other folks aren't convinced at 56/43 in favor of the Alex Smith and Company. I'm not convinced either but with a -2.5 in favor of the Texans, it's enough for now. Chiefs.
At New England -6.5 Miami
My Call:
New England looked fantastic in week one despite missing their star TE and Brady still playing flag football with the wife. Gronk should be back this week and 6.5 on the line isn't enough to stop it. Patriots.
Baltimore -7.5 At Cleveland
My Call:
If Baltimore's defense can keep Gary Barnidge contained, this game is theirs. It is no secret he is the favorite target of the now starting QB Josh McCown. Meanwhile, Flacco should be able to make something happen on the other side. The real question mark is the 7.5 they are spotting the Browns. I think they will do just fine. Ravens.
At Pittsburgh -3.5 Cincinnati
My Call:
This is a game about who decides to show up and I am not sure where to turn here. They both have explosive offensive weapons and this can easily turn into a shoot out. My model has the Bengals by a slim margin and I will put my money where my mouth is. Dalton and the Bengals!
At Washington -2.5 Dallas
My Call:
I was not impressed with Dallas against the weak Giants defense, I am simply not convinced they will get it done here. The line is short, favoring Washington at -2.5. I am looking for Kirk Cousins to get into a groove, he has too many weapons not to. Redskins.
At NY Giants -5.5 New Orleans
My Call:
You have two of the worst defenses in the NFL facing off this week. Drew Brees looked great last week and I hate all things Eli even though the line disagrees at -5.5. It won't be enough. Saints in a shoot out.
At Carolina -13.5 San Francisco
My Call:
My model is all over Carolina in this game. The line agrees with a generous head start for the 49ers to the tune of 13.5 points and so do I. Carolina's defense is good enough and the 49ers offense, while surprising in week one, will not be strong enough here. Panthers.
At Arizona -6.5 Tampa Bay
My Call:
Against the squishy TB defense I look for Palmer to get aggressive. If Arizona can keep Winston in check, they might blow this one out. But they only need 7, I believe they can pull it off. Cardinals.
Seattle -5.5 At Los Angeles
My Call:
The concern here is the Seattle offense with a bruised Russell Wilson. As for the Rams, they were embarrassed by SF and put up a goose egg for their trouble. Their defense might be able to contain Wilson while he waddles in the backfield, but I have no confidence in their ability to move the ball. Even with a 5.5 headstart, my model says the Seahawks put them away and I agree.
At Denver -5.5 Indianapolis
My Call:
Here is my problem. Thomas is hurt for Denver and this opens up the opportunity for the Colts to stack against C.J. Anderson who had a breakout game to start things off. While it is unlikely, the Colts could hold Denver and keep it close. Siemian did okay last week but nothing spectacular. He will look to prove he belongs here this week. My model has Denver by 10 and I believe.
At Oakland -4.5 Atlanta
My Call:
This game is going to be close because both offenses are teeing off on some poor defenses. It is a shootout that can go any direction, but I am looking at the line of 4.5 against the favored Raiders. I have faith Ryan and the boys can keep it close enough, if not squeak the victory. Falcons.
At San Diego -2.5 Jacksonville
My Call:
This one is going to be interesting. Rivers lost a receiver and the Jaguar's gave Rodgers all he could handle and more last week. If they can get a repeat performance out of their defense, Bortles will take it the rest of the way against the struggling Chargers defense. I think they can do it but even if they can't, they will keep it close enough. Jags!
Green Bay -2.5 At Minnesota
My Call:
Oh man, my model has this game going to the Vikings by 3. If I had money to burn I would put it in despite cries to the contrary at 82/18 in favor of the Packers. Anyway, with the veteran under center, I think he gets this train back on the tracks. He only needs to win by 3. Packers.
At Chicago -2.5 Philadelphia
My Call:
I like how the Eagles looked in the opener. That is more than I can say for the bears. With 3 points going in the right direction, I will take the Eagles over da Bears on Monday Night.
At Buffalo -0.5 NY Jets
My Call:
The line believes it is a coin flip (a measly half point against the Bills), which is what makes this choice easy. Rex Ryan doesn't like how much of a beating Taylor was taking and is concerned about his long term health, not that really matters here. I am going with the Jets here, but I think it will be close.
At Detroit -5.5 Tennessee
My Call:
I have Detroit winning by 10 in this one. With the line spotting the Titans 5.5, it should be enough to cover. How is their defense doing, anyway? If the Vikings can knock em around, I look for the Lions to do the same.
At Houston -2.5 Kansas City
My Call:
I gave KC a spot adjustment to the PPG in favor of Houston and my model still loves the Chiefs here. Other folks aren't convinced at 56/43 in favor of the Alex Smith and Company. I'm not convinced either but with a -2.5 in favor of the Texans, it's enough for now. Chiefs.
At New England -6.5 Miami
My Call:
New England looked fantastic in week one despite missing their star TE and Brady still playing flag football with the wife. Gronk should be back this week and 6.5 on the line isn't enough to stop it. Patriots.
Baltimore -7.5 At Cleveland
My Call:
If Baltimore's defense can keep Gary Barnidge contained, this game is theirs. It is no secret he is the favorite target of the now starting QB Josh McCown. Meanwhile, Flacco should be able to make something happen on the other side. The real question mark is the 7.5 they are spotting the Browns. I think they will do just fine. Ravens.
At Pittsburgh -3.5 Cincinnati
My Call:
This is a game about who decides to show up and I am not sure where to turn here. They both have explosive offensive weapons and this can easily turn into a shoot out. My model has the Bengals by a slim margin and I will put my money where my mouth is. Dalton and the Bengals!
At Washington -2.5 Dallas
My Call:
I was not impressed with Dallas against the weak Giants defense, I am simply not convinced they will get it done here. The line is short, favoring Washington at -2.5. I am looking for Kirk Cousins to get into a groove, he has too many weapons not to. Redskins.
At NY Giants -5.5 New Orleans
My Call:
You have two of the worst defenses in the NFL facing off this week. Drew Brees looked great last week and I hate all things Eli even though the line disagrees at -5.5. It won't be enough. Saints in a shoot out.
At Carolina -13.5 San Francisco
My Call:
My model is all over Carolina in this game. The line agrees with a generous head start for the 49ers to the tune of 13.5 points and so do I. Carolina's defense is good enough and the 49ers offense, while surprising in week one, will not be strong enough here. Panthers.
At Arizona -6.5 Tampa Bay
My Call:
Against the squishy TB defense I look for Palmer to get aggressive. If Arizona can keep Winston in check, they might blow this one out. But they only need 7, I believe they can pull it off. Cardinals.
Seattle -5.5 At Los Angeles
My Call:
The concern here is the Seattle offense with a bruised Russell Wilson. As for the Rams, they were embarrassed by SF and put up a goose egg for their trouble. Their defense might be able to contain Wilson while he waddles in the backfield, but I have no confidence in their ability to move the ball. Even with a 5.5 headstart, my model says the Seahawks put them away and I agree.
At Denver -5.5 Indianapolis
My Call:
Here is my problem. Thomas is hurt for Denver and this opens up the opportunity for the Colts to stack against C.J. Anderson who had a breakout game to start things off. While it is unlikely, the Colts could hold Denver and keep it close. Siemian did okay last week but nothing spectacular. He will look to prove he belongs here this week. My model has Denver by 10 and I believe.
At Oakland -4.5 Atlanta
My Call:
This game is going to be close because both offenses are teeing off on some poor defenses. It is a shootout that can go any direction, but I am looking at the line of 4.5 against the favored Raiders. I have faith Ryan and the boys can keep it close enough, if not squeak the victory. Falcons.
At San Diego -2.5 Jacksonville
My Call:
This one is going to be interesting. Rivers lost a receiver and the Jaguar's gave Rodgers all he could handle and more last week. If they can get a repeat performance out of their defense, Bortles will take it the rest of the way against the struggling Chargers defense. I think they can do it but even if they can't, they will keep it close enough. Jags!
Green Bay -2.5 At Minnesota
My Call:
Oh man, my model has this game going to the Vikings by 3. If I had money to burn I would put it in despite cries to the contrary at 82/18 in favor of the Packers. Anyway, with the veteran under center, I think he gets this train back on the tracks. He only needs to win by 3. Packers.
At Chicago -2.5 Philadelphia
My Call:
I like how the Eagles looked in the opener. That is more than I can say for the bears. With 3 points going in the right direction, I will take the Eagles over da Bears on Monday Night.
So, I went 13 and 3 straight up last week to tie for 1st with a lot of other people in ESPN's Pick'em and 10-6 to finish in the 97 percentile against the line. That emboldens me to use less math and more intuition this week and see if I can keep that streak going, even though my model out performed me by two games...this is easier. 
Call: In a shrug, Buffalo.
Call: Detroit
Call: Houston.
Call: I hate laying this many points with a back up, but history, long and short say why not? Pats.
Call: Cleveland against the spread in a low scoring game.
Call: Steelers
Call: I have Washington by as much as five or better, so I'll take them, but I won't be surprised if Dallas finds its offensive legs this week against a relatively week Washington front.
So I won't be surprised to see New York win by three.
Call: NO
Call: This isn't that sort of day, Carolina.
At Arizona -6.5 Tampa Bay
Call: Arizona
Call: The road for LA's number one pick begins.lain: Seattle
Call: Denver.
Call: on a limb, I'll take Atlanta to keep it closer or win outright.
Call: Jags
Call: Min :shocked:
In fairness, the Bears ran into Houston and losing to Houston isn't going to be an embarrassment for anyone. I hate this game. Literally. If this game was a face I'd spit in it.lain:
Call: I have this 28-27, Bears...so it's like the Saints game...except I'm going to pull for the hapless ones and say Chicago. I may come back and change this before game time...it may single handedly force me back to the math drawing board, but I'm resisting...:mmph:
On the one hand you have last week's respective performances and on the other hand you have Ryan out coaching his former team every time he sees them. :think: I think he's perfect against the Jets so far. The money is 63/37 for the Jets.
Call: In a shrug, Buffalo.
I think Vegas is thinking more like I am on this one. I was thinking 5 for the actual and they've moved a point to make people like me pull hair. Well, I've got a lot of that, so it's no skin off my mixed metaphors. Both teams looked vulnerable in their secondary...but at least Detroit can say a great qb managed it. :think: The money is riding 62/38 taking the action by as much as 6, so that helps calm my half point jitters (remembering how it bit me twice last week)
Call: Detroit
Tough game to call. KC sputtered out of the gate and only really rebounded after San Diego lost the man their offense was built to serve. On the other side of it, Houston played safe and solid on the offensive side of things and looked better than good defensively. I have Houston by a fg, so this line is giving me 5.5. Okay.
Call: Houston.
This line has the money split 51/49 in favor of New England repeating last weeks surprise thumping of Arizona at home against an lesser team. Makes sense. The fly in the ointment? They play the Pats well even when the Pats are at full strength. In the last 5 meetings the Fins have won 3. But not on the road. On the road, they've been killed, but by Brady...
Call: I hate laying this many points with a back up, but history, long and short say why not? Pats.
I'm not nearly as confident about this spread. I think the Browns are a better defensive unit than Buffalo and the Ravens managed 13 then...the 27th worst offensive performance on the day. Two spots down, Cleveland managed 10.
Call: Cleveland against the spread in a low scoring game.
The Bengals are good. The Steelers are my dark horse early. 3.5 isn't a lot of points to take. The money is about even at 3...I like the Steelers by a td or better. The Bengals struggled on the road last week while Pittsburgh looked brutally efficient.
Call: Steelers
The good news for Washington fans still recovering from the whipping their team got at home last week is that Dallas isn't bringing the Steelers with them. A good game to rebound if they can. Dallas, on the other hand, should have won against the Giants and has more talent than they showed in that game. Improved qb play is a certainty, but over the season, not a handful of days.
Call: I have Washington by as much as five or better, so I'll take them, but I won't be surprised if Dallas finds its offensive legs this week against a relatively week Washington front.
I agree with the idea of these two airing it out and that would tend to favor Brees. But the Giants will look to keep Brees sidelined with a lower tempo offense, a la their old Bills game plan...maybe.
So I won't be surprised to see New York win by three.Call: NO
I like an angry Carolina by as much as two scores. The Niners won on a strong defensive showing against a weak offensive unit. When the other qb is playing for you, it's going to be that sort of day.
Call: This isn't that sort of day, Carolina.
At Arizona -6.5 Tampa Bay
I look for Tampa to put up as much as three tds and still fall short of killing the spread. Or, it's time for the Cardinals to be the Cardinals. Last weeks nasty homecoming should be all the motivation they need. Curiously, the money is an even split on this one. I think people are just a little unsure about both teams after last week.
Call: Arizona
Seattle couldn't have looked worse in their opening win against Miami. . . unless they changed uniforms with LA. Two teams with a lot to prove offensively. I have the Seahawks favored by around 10...which could actually be their offensive output and it would still be likely enough to beat LA.
Call: The road for LA's number one pick begins.
lain: SeattleDenver wins or loses on defense. This group looks as good as they did last year. They may be better, barring injuries, by the end of it. Indy isn't balanced enough and Luck is going to have to try to turn this into a scoring contest, which means taking chances against a defense that will be coming.
Call: Denver.
This should be a fun game to watch if you like pinball. The half point is a half point more than I want for Oakland, Atlanta can win on the road, but lose as often, going 4-4 last year. The money is 60/40 for Oakland to cover. It's hard to say what the Saints game means, given the weakness of both defenses...or is that the strength of both offenses? :idunno:
Call: on a limb, I'll take Atlanta to keep it closer or win outright.
Not just a wr, THE wr. Look for Jacksonville to handle SD as they struggle to reformulate their offensive strategy.
Call: Jags
I like the Vikings and five, so...we'll find out a little more about both this week. That's what the first three or four games always manage. One is a hint. Two is a suggestion. Three is a trend and four is predictive.
Call: Min :shocked:
.
In fairness, the Bears ran into Houston and losing to Houston isn't going to be an embarrassment for anyone. I hate this game. Literally. If this game was a face I'd spit in it.
lain:Call: I have this 28-27, Bears...so it's like the Saints game...except I'm going to pull for the hapless ones and say Chicago. I may come back and change this before game time...it may single handedly force me back to the math drawing board, but I'm resisting...:mmph:
Quetzal
New member
NO, DON'T DO THIS! What is interesting, of all of the games I have looked at this week, this is the one giving me the most "buyers regret" so to speak. :dizzy: After the Vikings have lost so much I wouldn't have dreamed of having this much conflict with them against Aaron and Co.
I didn't say I'd bet real money on it, but if you don't take a few riders where's the fun? I think this defense can give the Pack fits and I'm not sold on GB's defensive front. So why not?
Quetzal
New member
New week, new start, new model. How did we do last night?
Buff 31 NYJ 37
:first:
I think we can all agree that opening drive by the Jets was UGLY. Fitzy tried to give it away twice and the Jets got away with a lucky holding penalty. After all was said and done, they cheerfully took a field goal for their trouble. Rex Ryan and and defense coaching staff gave Marshall and company too much room and they took advantage. I would be hard pressed to put money on them again next week when they travel to Kansas City, but for now...
1-0
Results:
Buff 31 NYJ 37
:first:
I think we can all agree that opening drive by the Jets was UGLY. Fitzy tried to give it away twice and the Jets got away with a lucky holding penalty. After all was said and done, they cheerfully took a field goal for their trouble. Rex Ryan and and defense coaching staff gave Marshall and company too much room and they took advantage. I would be hard pressed to put money on them again next week when they travel to Kansas City, but for now...
1-0
A few thoughts:
The personal foul call on Terrelle Pryor was the worst call of the day.
Denver's defense is really, really good.
Andrew Luck is going to be the next Phillip Rivers.
Only Cleveland could blow a 20-0 lead.
Antonio Brown and A.J. Green had 6 catches, 77 yards, and 0 touchdowns COMBINED.
Rex Ryan is an idiot.
The personal foul call on Terrelle Pryor was the worst call of the day.
Denver's defense is really, really good.
Andrew Luck is going to be the next Phillip Rivers.
Only Cleveland could blow a 20-0 lead.
Antonio Brown and A.J. Green had 6 catches, 77 yards, and 0 touchdowns COMBINED.
Rex Ryan is an idiot.
Pretty bad.
Doesn't appear to have dropped off much, if any.
A hugely talented guy surrounded by mediocrity thanks to a poor front office?
The Giants were fairly adept at that last year.
:rotfl:
Well, when he tries.
lain:
So I managed to get 10 wins/points out of this one, accidentally. I picked Buf in a shrug here, but (though I don't remember doing it) I picked the Jets on ESPN, giving me a game I thought I'd lost. Sweet.
Here are my Pigskin Pick'em numbers against the line going into the Monday Night contest:
So the seat of the pants thing is working out, so far. Looking back over my educated dart throws for the week.
Picked Buf here but stayed with the Jets on ESPN, apparently. I remember going back and forth on this game and the Cowboys, but I thought I'd changed it to Buf. Didn't. I'll take it.
1-0
1-1 :mmph:
Golden. Houston was even better than I thought. 2-1
The injury bug had me thinking this might be a loss to live with, but the Pats came through just enough to put this one in the win column and make next week a hair puller.
3-1
More points than I thought I'd see, but the Browns managed to give me a win in their loss by keeping it close.
4-1
Thank you, Steel Town. I liked them by 7 or more and they win by 8.
5-1
Well, I wasn't surprised much, other than my spelling, but it was more about Washington losing itself than Dallas coming around early.
5-2 :mmph:
New York won by 3... :mmph: 5-3
SF was better than expected, but Carolina still had their way and the win.
6-3
7-3
The game that looked like a gimmie got me. The totals were reversed, essentially, in how I saw it pan out.
:mmph: 7-4
And there you go. 8-4
Just so. 9-4
Rivers...he played out of his mind football and proved he can beat you on a given. Hats off to him. Remarkable, statistically improbable performance given.
9-5 :mmph:
Well, they came up with three instead of five, but they won, which I thought they would. That defense is good and they had the best qb they've fielded in years playing like he's capable, if a little (and understandably) restrained.
10-5
As noted above, I've changed my Monday Night prediction to favor the Eagles. The Bears need it, are slightly favored and at home. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a typical Bears choke.
Here are my Pigskin Pick'em numbers against the line going into the Monday Night contest:
| 10 Possible Points Remaining1 |
| Entry | TOTAL | PCT |
|---|---|---|
| Your Entry | 20 | 99.5 |
| Average | 12 | 50.0 |
| Best Entry (Periods and Total) | 26 | 100.0 |
Picked Buf here but stayed with the Jets on ESPN, apparently. I remember going back and forth on this game and the Cowboys, but I thought I'd changed it to Buf. Didn't. I'll take it.
1-0
So the Titans team I thought would show up last week and didn't, giving me a loss, did this week, giving me a loss.
1-1 :mmph:
Golden. Houston was even better than I thought. 2-1
The injury bug had me thinking this might be a loss to live with, but the Pats came through just enough to put this one in the win column and make next week a hair puller.
3-1
More points than I thought I'd see, but the Browns managed to give me a win in their loss by keeping it close.
4-1
Thank you, Steel Town. I liked them by 7 or more and they win by 8.
5-1
Well, I wasn't surprised much, other than my spelling, but it was more about Washington losing itself than Dallas coming around early.
5-2 :mmph:
At NY Giants -5.5 New Orleans
I agree with the idea of these two airing it out and that would tend to favor Brees. But the Giants will look to keep Brees sidelined with a lower tempo offense, a la their old Bills game plan...maybe.
Call: NO
New York won by 3... :mmph: 5-3
SF was better than expected, but Carolina still had their way and the win.
6-3
Tampa only managed one of the three tds I thought they would, but Arizona did what I thought they would, covering handily.
7-3
Seattle -5.5 At Los Angeles
Seattle couldn't have looked worse in their opening win against Miami. . . unless they changed uniforms with LA. Two teams with a lot to prove offensively. I have the Seahawks favored by around 10...which could actually be their offensive output and it would still be likely enough to beat LA.
Call: The road for LA's number one pick begins.
The game that looked like a gimmie got me. The totals were reversed, essentially, in how I saw it pan out.
:mmph: 7-4
And there you go. 8-4
Just so. 9-4
Rivers...he played out of his mind football and proved he can beat you on a given. Hats off to him. Remarkable, statistically improbable performance given.
9-5 :mmph:
Well, they came up with three instead of five, but they won, which I thought they would. That defense is good and they had the best qb they've fielded in years playing like he's capable, if a little (and understandably) restrained.
10-5
As noted above, I've changed my Monday Night prediction to favor the Eagles. The Bears need it, are slightly favored and at home. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a typical Bears choke.
Quetzal
New member
Coming into the weekend, I was 1-0 with my prediction of the Jets over the Bills, how did I do on Sunday?
Looks like Tennessee needs a bit more respect from me, you got it!
1-1
This was a silly pick in retrospect. Alex Smith is good, but is he that good? I thought so and it bit me. In other news, is Brock good enough to move Houston against New England? I will contemplate that, meanwhile...
1-2
The Dolphins tried to make it interesting late but it wasn't nearly enough. How can New England continue to produce with such a chewed up offense? I don't know and quite frankly I don't care! Their effort was good enough.
2-2
I got the pick right, but the line got me. I was really impressed with the early game efficiency of the Browns offense. The Ravens caught their breath late, but it was too late for me.
2-3
I knew coming into this one it was a risk. Too high scoring offenses I was just expecting the Bengals to keep it close enough. Shame on me.
2-4
I was really expecting more out of Cousins and so was everyone else. Not much to say here. Same old from Washington.
2-5
I would like to be the first to congratulate the NY defense on defeating the Saints, because Eli sure didn't. I loved this game and despite the score being much lower than I thought, the Saints kept it close enough to give me a desperately needed point in the right direction.
3-5
This one was a gimmie and I never had any doubt. The Panthers are too good and the 49ers should be decommissioned to high school divisions until further notice.
4-5
This should silence any critics regarding the Arizona offense, then again, Tampa Bay? :shocked:
5-5
I have no idea what is going on in Seattle but they are allergic to the scoreboard so far this season. I thought this would be a lay up point for me, alas...
5-6
I said 10, they clipped them by 14, I will take it! The poor Colts on the other hand...
6-6
The Falcons didn't even need a line in the upset this week. This will put more stock in them going forward.
7-6
I think they got us, Town. My question for us is for how long? I don't see him being able to repeat that performance week in, week out. But we shall see.
7-7
Rodgers was frustrated and so was I. But the real story is their man under center for Minnesota. He had a great opening performance and I am quite interested to see what he can cobble together behind the exceptional Viking defense. A game changer for sure.
7-8
:smack:
Looks like Tennessee needs a bit more respect from me, you got it!
1-1
:smack:
This was a silly pick in retrospect. Alex Smith is good, but is he that good? I thought so and it bit me. In other news, is Brock good enough to move Houston against New England? I will contemplate that, meanwhile...
1-2
:first:
The Dolphins tried to make it interesting late but it wasn't nearly enough. How can New England continue to produce with such a chewed up offense? I don't know and quite frankly I don't care! Their effort was good enough.
2-2
:smack:
I got the pick right, but the line got me. I was really impressed with the early game efficiency of the Browns offense. The Ravens caught their breath late, but it was too late for me.
2-3
:smack:
I knew coming into this one it was a risk. Too high scoring offenses I was just expecting the Bengals to keep it close enough. Shame on me.
2-4
:smack:
I was really expecting more out of Cousins and so was everyone else. Not much to say here. Same old from Washington.
2-5
:first:
I would like to be the first to congratulate the NY defense on defeating the Saints, because Eli sure didn't. I loved this game and despite the score being much lower than I thought, the Saints kept it close enough to give me a desperately needed point in the right direction.
3-5
:first:
This one was a gimmie and I never had any doubt. The Panthers are too good and the 49ers should be decommissioned to high school divisions until further notice.
4-5
:first:
This should silence any critics regarding the Arizona offense, then again, Tampa Bay? :shocked:
5-5
:smack:
I have no idea what is going on in Seattle but they are allergic to the scoreboard so far this season. I thought this would be a lay up point for me, alas...
5-6
:first:
I said 10, they clipped them by 14, I will take it! The poor Colts on the other hand...
6-6
:first:
The Falcons didn't even need a line in the upset this week. This will put more stock in them going forward.
7-6
:smack:
I think they got us, Town. My question for us is for how long? I don't see him being able to repeat that performance week in, week out. But we shall see.
7-7
:smack:
Rodgers was frustrated and so was I. But the real story is their man under center for Minnesota. He had a great opening performance and I am quite interested to see what he can cobble together behind the exceptional Viking defense. A game changer for sure.
7-8
Quetzal
New member
You picked NO, doesn't that give you a point?
It would have, but I clicked the wrong tab.You picked NO, doesn't that give you a point?
:mock: my tab clicking abilities. Well, it makes up for my vacillation on the Buffalo pick. :chuckle:
They will be good, but after what happened last week this feels more like a combination of things. They're going to be that irritating, streaky team, like John Starks' Nicks back in the day.
I don't think it was silly an awful pick. KC has a solid defense and can play pretty fair offense....Houston is still a little bit of an unknown, but are now a game or two away from setting the trend of serious respectable contention.
If Granite were still around he'd say that's the thing about Miami. They can give NE fits. I'd say it's because they tend to field solid if not quite playoff caliber teams that know the Pats the way division foes will.
The Browns point total was surprising, but for me it was just a lot of separating points for Baltimore to come up with this early. 6 might have suckered me the other way, but a td plus seemed...optimistic to me.
Pittsburgh is just looking that good. They scared me late last year and I remember writing that if they could get clear of the injury bug no one would want to play them. Time will tell about that, but they're a handful of trouble.
To be fair, who saw Dak throwing for around 300 and ending with a qb rating over 100 this early in the season? And Cousins wasn't awful. An 84 rating, one pick against one td? A modestly okay day when you pick it apart. The difference in this game was marginally better overall play by Dallas. Could as easily have been a Washington win. . . not time to write them off just yet.
You can't really blame either qb. I watched this one more than the others. Eli was hitting guys on the hands, literally, and not getting much from it. A lot game altering drops. And he still had a 100+ rating, throwing for 368 and a 9.0 average. Despite having the only td between them, Brees had the worse (but still respectable) day and also ran into odd drops that mattered from a couple of normally reliable teammates. I also thought both defenses had moments, the Saints, despite giving up yardage and benefiting from butter hands, were playing a lot of tight coverage.
:think: They put up 27 pts on one of the league's better defenses. Take away the goose egg 3rd quarter for them offensively and they're in the ballgame. Gabbert didn't wow with his stats, but I can see why they like him, if they'll give him a little more help.
Horrible first half for Tampa. At this stage they'll live and die with their QB, who tried too hard against a top tier defense and paid the price. A learning experience for the sophomore.
When Keenam can match Wilson with a "meh" game, a-la Cousins on the day, the running game and defense have to pick up the slack. Seattle averaged 2.8 on the ground. Of course, LA averaged 2.6. In fact, that's the problem in a nutshell. They looked a lot like the same team, which should be a wake up call for Seattle. A coin toss and marginal field position determined the outcome for kicker opportunities.
Line play. Luck pressed the way I expected him to, but the Colts have a lot of work to do with their line. Or...Denver is just that good, defensively...or, more likely, both.
I picked them with a wince. They're a lot like Palmer's old Bengals team. They should be better than they are, given the talent on hand. You keep thinking, "If they could get a little swagger..."
I think we've touched on this before, but the thing about this team is that their qb is an all time great. He's a lot like Favre, but without all the weapons to work with. The Vikings coach and defensive guru calls him one of the best he's ever had to scheme against. It makes you wonder what the qb conversation would be like if he played for...say, the hapless Cowboys over his career. Put him on Denver instead of Manning a few years back. He's tougher, mentally, if not the strategist...What do you think the trophy case in Mile High might look like? On a given day he can destroy you, but I thought he'd need to regroup given how his coaches had schemed the offense prior. He didn't. But you can't carry the team for long in this league and SD has something to prove on that score.
The question is really this: are we looking at a Carson Palmer or Chad Pennington? A guy who needed a reboot or a guy with worlds of talent who just can't stay on the field.
It will be interesting to find out.
Quetzal
New member
What is giving me fits so far this year is determining if these new QBs can produce. A lot of new faces and injuries early. Let's go down the list:
It is the frustrating/fun part of fantasy, right? Many of these match ups have question marks to go with them. As we have already discussed there are also guys out there who can light it up if they decide to participate (Rivers, for example).
- Two weeks left with New England being a question mark. Although, they have proven twice that they can contend regardless. It makes this one a bit easier.
- Dallas and Dak. He had one week where he flopped and you were good to illustrate that he had a good day yesterday. Still a big question mark. Who do they face next week... da Bears? Well, we will have to see how tonight goes for Cutler and company.
- Brock and the Texans. He got some game time with Denver but he had a much stronger supporting cast in the way of receivers. No one can doubt their defense but their production is still elusive to me.
- Cleveland woes. RG3 and now McCown is down and out. Who the heck is left?
- Russell Wilson can't seem to find the end zone. He got rocked early but how much of that is to blame and how long until he is in top form again?
- Sam Bradford looked great for Minnesota, but next week they hop on the bus to give Cam a visit. How will that shake out?
It is the frustrating/fun part of fantasy, right? Many of these match ups have question marks to go with them. As we have already discussed there are also guys out there who can light it up if they decide to participate (Rivers, for example).
Quetzal
New member
My point is they would have outright lost the game if the NY secondary didn't have a bomb shell of a night. I will take any excuse to put Eli and in the dog house but when your defense outscores your QB against a defense like the Saints? Come on now. To be fair, same could be said for Brees and his lack of production but I like him more.
lain:
Seriously though, there were a lot of dropped passes that would have impacted the game for both qbs. And some days, for any number of reasons (usually because he running game is punching it in, but...) you just can't get it in the end zone.My point is they would have outright lost the game if the NY secondary didn't have a bomb shell of a night. I will take any excuse to put Eli and in the dog house but when your defense outscores your QB against a defense like the Saints? Come on now. To be fair, same could be said for Brees and his lack of production but I like him more.
Heck, some seasons, if you root for KC.
(right kmo?)
Dak did more right than wrong, for a rookie, in his debut. I expected him to become a problem for defenses, just not this early. He'll likely be inconsistent for most of the first half of the season, but the Bears are a good team to continue to build confidence against.
Washington has given up around 300 yds passing in each of its first two games, so maybe not the best test of a qb.
Brock? He's 28th in the league in rating after 2 games. So...looked solid against a "meh" defense and "meh" against a solid defense, but it's early.
Cleveland...does it matter?
Kessler, I guess. The rookie is what they have, at least for this upcoming. Good luck, rookie. Wilson needs to be mobile and he's still nursing a week ankle, I don't care how Seattle waxes poetic about his healing abilities.
Sam was fantastic. If he looks decent against Carolina it's reason for hope in a team with the talent to make a playoff run.
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