NFL 2014

[Town Heretic]

Right now, understanding tonight's game could move it a little, my top ten looks like this:

1. New England: not the best team top to bottom, but no one is playing better of late, including (if by a negligible degree) Denver.

2. Denver: chasing and with still the best top to bottom team right now, but one that needs to grow a little, with room to do that.

3. Green Bay: I know, I know, but that offense covers the sins of the defense. Maybe they'll tumble between now and then, but this is now.

4. Indy: yeah, they're Lucky and good.

5. KC: only kmo will like this. They play like the old Pats teams, except instead of Brady it's Charles making the difference surrounded by a really good team that's extremely well coached.

6. Philly: I'm not in love with them, but I think they upgraded at QB by injury and that's one heck of an offensive coach to bring Sanchez along in a system that will be tailored to maximize his ability.

7. Arizona: with Carson, the best in the 4th quarter of late, out this team might tumble, but another terrific coaching staff and a talented young back up could surprise.

8. Dallas: don't want to, but I have to. They're solid.

9. Detroit: the potential to beat anyone, but they're not consistent enough yet.

10....Baltimore: could put a handful of teams here. Up and down Baltimore have found a running back and they might be another dark horse.

Hon men.: Sea, NO, Pit

 

[kmoney]

I can imagine...but to be fair, Tet's all right in my book, just a little nuts on the point and determined to drive everyone else likewise.

And you're just as determined to argue the other way. It's like you both have something real at stake.

 

[kmoney]

5. KC: only kmo will like this. They play like the old Pats teams, except instead of Brady it's Charles making the difference surrounded by a really good team that's extremely well coached.

KC is playing well. We have a tough stretch coming up that will really show what we're made of. In the remaining games we play Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Denver, and San Diego. It's nice that we have Seattle, Denver, and San Diego at home though. And we better get those 2 games against Oakland. :noid:


Otherwise, your list is decent. It'll be interesting to see how Philly and Arizona fare with their backup QBs.

 

[Town Heretic]

KC is playing well. We have a tough stretch coming up that will really show what we're made of. In the remaining games we play Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Denver, and San Diego.

Seattle will be a test but you're right, the home field advantage helps you there and with San Diego as well. Denver...I don't think it's going to be enough absent something unforeseeable. Pittsburgh is a wild card and who knows what the Cardinals are going to look like now? It's late in the season to be substituting even a talented youngster.

And we better get those 2 games against Oakland. :noid:

Don't look past them. Until that ridiculous short pass turned touchdown later in the game they were giving Peyton all sorts of problems with defensive schemes. After that the air went out of the Raiders and it was open season.

Did you see Peyton's back up get irked by not being able to go in late in the third? :chuckle: He got his time in the next quarter, but I thought that was funny.

Otherwise, your list is decent.

You know, past the first three you can make all sorts of arguments, but that's what my model is looking like and I've had tremendous success with it so far.

It'll be interesting to see how Philly and Arizona fare with their backup QBs.

Yeah. I'm betting better and worse, respectively.

 

[Daniel1611]

Pittsburgh, Greenbay, Denver, Dallas are the 4 I'm thinking for post season, barring any major injuries.

 

[Town Heretic]

Pittsburgh, Greenbay, Denver, Dallas are the 4 I'm thinking for post season, barring any major injuries.

:think:

NFC

East: I like Philly to hold serve, but Dallas is on their necks and if Sanchez falters, who knows. Dallas either takes it or enters the playoffs as a wild card.

North: I'll take Green Bay with Detroit challenging and taking a wild card.

South: New Orleans, but Atlanta is somehow 3-0 inside the division and if they could focus...

West: No idea now that Arz has lost their qb. Seattle or Arz will fight for division winner and the second wild card slot. Absent a Cardinals collapse I don't have the Niners making the playoffs.

AFC

East: New England with Miami contending for a wild card berth.

North: No idea. One week it looks like any of them could win it. A likely home for one of the wild cards, maybe.

South: Indy

West: Denver, with KC the best wild card prospect.

 

[Daniel1611]

I just have a feeling about Dallas. And I will always say Pittsburgh can win the SuperBowl. I'd love to see Pittsburgh beat Dallas in the SUper Bowl. The Giants are my NFC team, but I don't see them doing anything this year.

 

[chrysostom]

my top five

detr (6)
kans (2)
miam (1)
balt (6)
ariz (3)

my top five

detr (7)
kans (3)
balt (7)
ariz (4)
miam (2)

miam lost to detr
all the others won

 

[Town Heretic]

my top five

detr (7)
kans (3)
balt (7)
ariz (4)
miam (2)

miam lost to detr
all the others won

Heck chrys, why not leave KC off and put Notre Dame in there somewhere. lain:

 

[Granite]

Was Carolina trying to get Newton killed last night?

 

[Town Heretic]

Was Carolina trying to get Newton killed last night?

You watched it? I think there should be a medal in the mail for both of you.

 

[Granite]

You watched it? I think there should be a medal in the mail for both of you.

Long enough to catch at least three sacks live and a replay for I think another. Nine total just boggles my mind.

 

[Nick M]

You watched it? I think there should be a medal in the mail for both of you.

I also watched Chris Collinsworth babble on mindlessly about things he doesn't know. Including after it was 42-0 at the half.

 

[kmoney]

Was Carolina trying to get Newton killed last night?

For real. Carolina's o-line was horrible. :shocked: Poor Cam.

 

[kmoney]

Seattle will be a test but you're right, the home field advantage helps you there and with San Diego as well. Denver...I don't think it's going to be enough absent something unforeseeable. Pittsburgh is a wild card and who knows what the Cardinals are going to look like now? It's late in the season to be substituting even a talented youngster.

Agreed on all counts. With Denver my main hope is that we play them close like we did in the first meeting.

Don't look past them. Until that ridiculous short pass turned touchdown later in the game they were giving Peyton all sorts of problems with defensive schemes. After that the air went out of the Raiders and it was open season.

Yep, I hope they don't look past them either. Oakland is winless but they've made things rough on some teams. We can't afford to slip up.

Did you see Peyton's back up get irked by not being able to go in late in the third? :chuckle: He got his time in the next quarter, but I thought that was funny.

I saw a clip but I didn't know where in the game it was. :chuckle: At least he got some playing time later on, but it wouldn't have killed Peyton to let him go in earlier with such a big lead (assuming it was his decision). If Denver is smart they'll start getting someone ready to replace Peyton. But I hope they don't so they'll be terrible once Manning retires. :devil:

You know, past the first three you can make all sorts of arguments, but that's what my model is looking like and I've had tremendous success with it so far.


Yeah. I'm betting better and worse, respectively.

You could be right about Sanchez. I hope he does well.

 

[Town Heretic]

Agreed on all counts. With Denver my main hope is that we play them close like we did in the first meeting.

I feel like I've been way out in front on appreciating KC. I suspect a lot of people feel like they maxed out last year and are nervous about the wr production issue in terms of tds, waiting on a really good defense to shut down that running game and then what? But I think they're playing smart, controlled football and tilting to their strengths.

Will they win the SB this year? No, not likely. Are they a team to take pride in and a potential king maker? Yes. Yes they are. Now if you can make strides in the passing game and add a couple more impact pieces...just saying.

Yep, I hope they don't look past them either. Oakland is winless but they've made things rough on some teams. We can't afford to slip up.

Yeah. No one goes winless and the last thing a team needs on its psyche past the mid line is to be the streak breaker.

I saw a clip but I didn't know where in the game it was. :chuckle: At least he got some playing time later on, but it wouldn't have killed Peyton to let him go in earlier with such a big lead (assuming it was his decision).

I think he wanted more game time/situation play to work on that offense. It's still not where he wants it (which I actually see as a good thing).

If Denver is smart they'll start getting someone ready to replace Peyton. But I hope they don't so they'll be terrible once Manning retires. :devil:

They're going to have to spend a year or two, likely, retooling when he's done in a couple. So you bring this kid along slowly and maybe he's ready by the time the next wave is jelling.

You could be right about Sanchez. I hope he does well.

He didn't luck into a couple of pro bowls. But the Jets kept using draft picks on the defense and both failed to protect him and give him tools to succeed. So a little attrition killed that offense deader than disco.

 

[Town Heretic]

Okay, it's time to look forward and see what the odds/action is for the upcoming games.

Week 11

1. Buf @ Mia: the Fins are a 5.5 favorite at home with the action running 54/46 in favor of that line...that's not much confidence in either Miami or the points coming off their close loss at Detroit. The Fins have had to restructure their O line and they're missing a key in their secondary. Taking that against the best pass rush..and you have why I'm going against that line.

2. Atl @ Car: the Panthers are a 1.5 pick'em home favorite and the action is 79/31 against that line. There isn't much to like about Carolina, though the Falcons on the road, out of doors...I have it dead even so I'll take Atlanta and the point and a half.

3. Min @ Chi: remember when this game would have mattered? The Bears are a 3.5 home favorite. Action is running 54/46 with the line, so no one knows what to do with this game. Another dead even game for me so I'll take the upset and Minnesota though I'm nervous, given how little we've had to see of the Bears at home.

4. Cin @ NO: the Saints are a 6.5 favorite and the action is a 65/35 split with the smart money on New Orleans. At home and in the dome you have to like the Saints. I like them by anywhere from 7 to 10 points, with an outside chance it gets ugly. The Bengals win less than twenty percent of the time. I'll take the Saints to cover.

5. Hou @ Cle: the Browns are a 3.5 favorite. The action runs 68/22 split for the Browns to cover. I'm going with Houston over a half point difference and because the Texans have looked good of late on the road.

6. Den @ SL: I hate big lines. The Broncos are a 9.5 road favorite. The action is split 82/18 in favor of that line...hate it, but I have them a two touchdown winner so I'm not going to grouse....much.

7. Sea @ KC: first game that really has my interest. The line is a confused pick'em half point edge to the Chiefs. It's a statement game for Kansas City and a needed win for the Seahawks. The action is a 57/43 split in favor of the marginal upset. Nuts to them. I like KC to win by 3 to 5 on average. But the model, to be fair, has Seattle winning nearly as often as not and the line is deserved. Call it a hunch then.

8. SF @ Gia: potentially brutal game. Don't look for a lot of points here. The line is SF by 4.5 and the action is running 68/32 with the line. I'll take the Niners from anywhere between 6 to 10 pts.

9. TB @ Was: Washington is a 6.5 favorite with the action going 67/33 with the line. Sure.

10. Oak @ SD: the weeks largest line has SD a 10.5 favorite and the action supports it narrowly, 54/46. I like them by nearly two tds so I'll take the irritating line.

11. Det @ Arz: the Cardinals are a mild 1.5 favorite to the visiting Lions. Action? 55/45 for the upset. No one knows what Palmer's loss will mean. I think I do and I'll take the surging Lions and their number one defense against the Arizona back up qb anc company.

12. Phi @ GB: the Pack is a 5.5 favorite and the action agrees 65/35. I have Green Bay covering, but this could be a tight game late.

13. NE @ Ind: the only game I'm more interested in than the Chiefs/Seattle match up. Indy is a 2.5 home favorite but the action is split 62/38 for an upset. I have them dead even so I'll take the points and the upset.

14. Pit @ Ten: the up and down Steelers are a 5.5 favorite. The action is trending with them an overwhelming 86/14. I'm not going to argue.

 

[kmoney]

I feel like I've been way out in front on appreciating KC. I suspect a lot of people feel like they maxed out last year and are nervous about the wr production issue in terms of tds, waiting on a really good defense to shut down that running game and then what? But I think they're playing smart, controlled football and tilting to their strengths.

Will they win the SB this year? No, not likely. Are they a team to take pride in and a potential king maker? Yes. Yes they are. Now if you can make strides in the passing game and add a couple more impact pieces...just saying.

Agreed on all counts.

Yeah. No one goes winless and the last thing a team needs on its psyche past the mid line is to be the streak breaker.

Exactly. :noid:

He didn't luck into a couple of pro bowls. But the Jets kept using draft picks on the defense and both failed to protect him and give him tools to succeed. So a little attrition killed that offense deader than disco.

Agree. His ugly exit from the Jets was probably more about the team around him than himself.

 

[Granite]

Buttfumble.

 

[Caledvwlch]

Buttfumble.

It was ESPN's "Not Top 10" number one for forty straight weeks. They had to "retire" it because no other embarrassing play could displace it.