USC and Stanford show coronavirus infection rates very high

[Gary K]

I don't mind, if once in our lives we are thinking about the elderly and being careful to save them, it is probably worth it. Wouldn't some of our precautions speak toward the compared numbers though? Another consideration, having a few friends go through this, it is worse than the flu. It is a 'flu-on-steroids' quoting Trump. An aside note: One rumor in the news is that it was 'accidentally engineered' by China doing bat experiments. Likely? Probably not, but it is an interesting read among physician's literature, and a friend sent it my way to read today. -Lon

Lon,

Just what do you think is going to happen to all these elderly people when the massive depression comes from the economy being shutdown? You're living in fantasy land.

Those on fixed incomes are going to get destroyed in the hard times that are coming. Our economic numbers are already worse than they were during the Great Depression. Our GDP is going to drop 35% in 3 months. That's the government's own forecast. Our unemployment rate is going to hit the mid 40s. That's 4+ out of every 10 people being unemployed. That's worse, a lot worse, than the 1930s. And the government forecasts are usually on the rosy side because of politics.

The fed is going to print approximately $10 trillion by the end of this year. That's $10 trillion in an economy that is shrinking rapidly. That means not only no increase in the total wealth of the nation, but a large reduction of the wealth of the country and yet the fed is going to print money on a scale never seen in the history of the world. The dollar is going to be valueless. That means prices are going to skyrocket. How are those on fixed incomes going to eat? Those without huge amounts of savings won't be able to feed themselves. And even those with large retirement accounts are going to be hit hard. Their retirement funds are invested in stocks and bonds and as a result they've already been hit with a loss of at least 30% of their retirement savings. Add to that the 0% interest rates on savings. And increased inflation because of the dollar being devalued because of all the money printing.

Are you beginning to see the dangers coming? And I haven't even begun to list all the economic problems we are going to see because of this shutdown. We are going to see homelessness on a scale we have never seen before. We are going to see starvation this nation has never seen. And this situation is going to be world wide for every country in the world is going to be hit just like the US will.

 

[eider]

yes indeed

Ah..... yes! My funny bone!

Nice to meet you! Have you met hypocritical two? You two are made for each other.

Ah..... yes! Hypocritical one and Hypocritical two!

Why on earth would I care what a mentally ill 17 year old Swedish girl in the tenth grade is chuckling about?

Is it Pokemons?

Because Pokemons are rad, dude.

especially over China, land of the Pokemon

I do

What do you think there will be once this "pandemic" has run its course?

"all my piety"?? :freak:

oh dude :doh:

what a tell :nono:

delusional and furiously angry at Christians

not a good combination

Yes, I do. My parents are in their mid-nineties and this may be the last summer my mother will be able to spend it at the family summer estate.

your retarded avatar pic, of Charlie Manson gargling?

Ah..... yes!

When you send stuff like the above, everyone knows you so much better.

 

[Lon]

Lon,

Just what do you think is going to happen to all these elderly people when the massive depression comes from the economy being shutdown? You're living in fantasy land.

Those on fixed incomes are going to get destroyed in the hard times that are coming. Our economic numbers are already worse than they were during the Great Depression. Our GDP is going to drop 35% in 3 months. That's the government's own forecast. Our unemployment rate is going to hit the mid 40s. That's 4+ out of every 10 people being unemployed. That's worse, a lot worse, than the 1930s. And the government forecasts are usually on the rosy side because of politics.

The fed is going to print approximately $10 trillion by the end of this year. That's $10 trillion in an economy that is shrinking rapidly. That means not only no increase in the total wealth of the nation, but a large reduction of the wealth of the country and yet the fed is going to print money on a scale never seen in the history of the world. The dollar is going to be valueless. That means prices are going to skyrocket. How are those on fixed incomes going to eat? Those without huge amounts of savings won't be able to feed themselves. And even those with large retirement accounts are going to be hit hard. Their retirement funds are invested in stocks and bonds and as a result they've already been hit with a loss of at least 30% of their retirement savings. Add to that the 0% interest rates on savings. And increased inflation because of the dollar being devalued because of all the money printing.

Are you beginning to see the dangers coming? And I haven't even begun to list all the economic problems we are going to see because of this shutdown. We are going to see homelessness on a scale we have never seen before. We are going to see starvation this nation has never seen. And this situation is going to be world wide for every country in the world is going to be hit just like the US will.

I don't envision it'll take much to get the country back up and running, especially if we cancel all debt to China regarding the matter. Despite the cost, it is a matter of lives and as I said, once in my lifetime is not too burdensome. God takes care of us, so I've no problem relying on Him at this time. He may use it to bring others to Himself. These are my primary concerns. I'm never going to lament doing love that costs me something. I'm self employed, and we are doing okay. I am still able to do some of it through distancing. Others? Well, if it is truly harming others, we need to look at those numbers and do the right thing, but I'm glad we at least made the effort. We aren't the only country that shut down, and I do believe we did and are saving lives. In Him -Lon

 

[Lon]

You mean to say that the coronavirus is not a media driven panic after all? Well fancy that.

I'm not sure panic is what sent us all home, at least not from where I live. At our first urging, some stayed home, some chose not to but where I live (Seattle/Tacoma) about 53% are successfully working from home. A good many more are working in stores and such. Boeing shut down, so it isn't that we haven't been hit, but its state by state and each state has to do what works. I heard in OR they are going to restart by counties, starting with those with no showing of the virus whatsoever, then by those with very few, working toward full swing in the state. This shutdown is new to all of us, as far as how to handle it, or how it will really affect our lives. A month or so for hiatus is okay for my family. We have enough, won't go on vacation, tightening the belt, but we are okay. -Lon

 

[ok doser]

When you send stuff like the above, everyone knows you so much better.

What do YOU think there will be once this "pandemic" has run its course?

And why did you choose as your avatar an image of Charlie Manson gargling?

 

[chair]

Despite how some like to present it, there isn't really an option of "business as usual", lose a few people, and keep the economy humming. How well will the economy run if huge numbers of people are sick? How well will it run if people are afraid to go outside? How well will it run with hundreds of thousands dying?

And something really important: The idea isn't to keep in lockdown forever. The economy will gradually start recovering fairly soon- if politicians and doctors make the right calls, and if people behave as they are asked to. Many are unemployed today, and it looks terrible. It won't be so bad in a few months.

 

[eider]

What do YOU think there will be once this "pandemic" has run its course?

A situation as difficult (but different) to the end of WWII.... Remember WWII (?), how you thought such an idea was 'hysterical; shrieking'?
You often seem to be the personification of smug-blindness.
Lots of qualifications and no common sense?

And why did you choose as your avatar an image of Charlie Manson gargling?

I'll reply to the above if you will tell me why a 12(?)+6yr Master chemist working in a high position for the FDA ended up teaching in an urban school.
Easy........

 

[Gary K]

I don't envision it'll take much to get the country back up and running, especially if we cancel all debt to China regarding the matter. Despite the cost, it is a matter of lives and as I said, once in my lifetime is not too burdensome. God takes care of us, so I've no problem relying on Him at this time. He may use it to bring others to Himself. These are my primary concerns. I'm never going to lament doing love that costs me something. I'm self employed, and we are doing okay. I am still able to do some of it through distancing. Others? Well, if it is truly harming others, we need to look at those numbers and do the right thing, but I'm glad we at least made the effort. We aren't the only country that shut down, and I do believe we did and are saving lives. In Him -Lon

Instead of imagining, which is a very poor way to make decisions, why not listen to one of the top financial and geopolitical analysts in the world about the financial impact of the decisions that are being made and why they are being made?

 

[Gary K]

The point is- a lot of people are sick or dying. Or hadn't you noticed?

And the scare models that were used to estimate deaths? The WHO said 3+% fatality rate. According to the USC and Stanford studies the mortality rate is between .12 and .2 percent of the real infection rate because of the very limited testing. That's far lower than the mortality rate of the flu. And here we have destroyed the economy of the entire world over this. Your life is going to come down around your ears unless you're very wealthy because your fiat currency is going to be valueless, and because more people are going to be out of work around the world for years than you can imagine. Food is going to disappear off the shelves of the grocery stores. This has been going on for only a very short time, and already the local stores in my area have shortages of food stuffs. For instance, I tried to buy whole wheat flour and there just isn't any. Think about what it means when only a month into a crisis and already staples like that are impossible to be found. There isn't even any 20lb bags of unbleached flour available. No rye flour available.

 

[chair]

Instead of imagining, which is a very poor way to make decisions, why not listen to one of the top financial and geopolitical analysts in the world about the financial impact of the decisions that are being made and why they are being made?

Wikipedia:

"Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught^[1] economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. He spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.^[1]"

 

[ok doser]

Despite how some like to present it, there isn't really an option of "business as usual", lose a few people, and keep the economy humming. How well will the economy run if huge numbers of people are sick? How well will it run if people are afraid to go outside? How well will it run with hundreds of thousands dying?

And something really important: The idea isn't to keep in lockdown forever. The economy will gradually start recovering fairly soon- if politicians and doctors make the right calls, and if people behave as they are asked to. Many are unemployed today, and it looks terrible. It won't be so bad in a few months.

If you look at "New Cases" and "New Deaths" for Italy, NC peaked on 3/22, ND peaked on 3/27. Both curves have plateaued and are trending downward. Italy has a new curve that we don't have yet - "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Italy", which shows a divergence in the two plotted lines, in a good way. Data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

So, safe to say that Italy has a handle on this, finally. Italy's current death rate from Covid is 0.04%. As a comparison, Italy's death rate for all causes last year was 1.06%



Hooray! Finally got this to work! :banana:

 

[chair]

According to the USC and Stanford studies the mortality rate is between .12 and .2 percent of the real infection rate because of the very limited testing.

You realize that that is a single study, and that there are many questions about how real those results are?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04...irus-study-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology/

By the way- that study suggests that the mortality rate is lower- but the infection rate is sky-high. So the number of deaths could be high, but the peak will be over sooner than people thought.

It would be nice if Stanford is right. Right now NY state has a death rate of 0.1% of the entire population, irrespective of whether they were infected or not. Unless everybody there has already been infected and doesn't know it, a mortality rate of 0.12 percent of infected people doesn't sound realistic.

 

[ok doser]

A situation as difficult (but different) to the end of WWII....

for which country? Germany? Brazil? America? Japan? Mexico? Those countries each fared very differently at the end of WW2. Rebuilding Japan and Germany was a big job. You're welcome.

Rebuilding America wasn't.

Remember WWII (?),

I do - it's not my favorite war, from the perspective of amateur historian, but I do remember it. Didn't live it, so no first hand memories. How about you? Do you remember it, first hand? My dad does and he's in his mid 90's. Are you in your mid 90's?

how you thought such an idea was 'hysterical; shrieking'?

I challenged you last time to find where I had said that and you ignored that challenge. Feel free to ignore it again.

And I do find much of your response to what the telly feeds you hysterical - emotional, irrational, hysterical - devoid of reason. Which is precisely their intent. Good job you. :first:

You often seem ....

this is another instance in which, if you find yourself typing those words you should STOP and think about the emotional nonsense that's about to follow

I'll reply to the above if ...

I'm not interested in making deals with a guy who chooses as his avatar an image of Charlie Manson gargling.

 

[eider]

for which country? Germany? Brazil? America? Japan? Mexico? Those countries each fared very differently at the end of WW2. Rebuilding Japan and Germany was a big job. You're welcome.

Rebuilding America wasn't.

Try.... the World.

​​​

I'm not interested in making deals with a guy who chooses as his avatar an image of Charlie Manson gargling.

Love it. That was easy.
.....your predicted response....

 

[ok doser]

Try.... the World.

America, Brazil, Mexico are part of the world. Doesn't the BBC on the telly teach you this?

Their post-war (WW2) experiences were very different from those of Germany, Italy, Japan ...

Love it. That was easy.
.....your predicted response....

remember what I said about you possibly being on the spectrum and not realizing that you were being a jerk when you were being a jerk, and how I'd be glad to help by telling you that you were being a jerk when you're being a jerk?

this is one of those times

 

[ok doser]

Right now NY state has a death rate of 0.1% of the entire population, irrespective of whether they were infected or not. Unless everybody there has already been infected and doesn't know it, a mortality rate of 0.12 percent of infected people doesn't sound realistic.

My county has a death rate (from covid) of zero. So do 11 others. In fact, most of the counties in NYS have death totals under 10. The death totals in NYS are driven by the idiots in the greater metro NYC area, the morons who thumbed their noses at Trump in February and ignored the warnings.

NYC is like Italy, in more ways than one. The rest of the state is like the rest of the country, mostly.

And the stats for the country as a whole are wildly skewed by the NYC data, which accounts for roughly half of all the cases, roughly half of all the deaths

NYC Metro is an anomaly in the data that has to be taken into account

 

[chair]

So, safe to say that Italy has a handle on this, finally. Italy's current death rate from Covid is 0.04%. As a comparison, Italy's death rate for all causes last year was 1.06%

Finally some encouraging news out of Italy.
Note that the death rate of 0.04% is over two months, not a year. That is a high death rate. And it is also why the health care system got overloaded.

 

[ok doser]

Finally some encouraging news out of Italy.
Note that the death rate of 0.04% is over two months, not a year. That is a high death rate. And it is also why the health care system got overloaded.

Now that they have a handle on it, the daily death rate (and count) should continue to decline

 

[chair]

It should. Inshallah.

 

[eider]

remember what I said about you possibly being on the spectrum and not realizing that you were being a jerk when you were being a jerk, and how I'd be glad to help by telling you that you were being a jerk when you're being a jerk?

this is one of those times

You waffle far too much.