SUTG
New member
2012.
Population Growth Rates.
- Thread starter bob b
- Start date
2012.
Thank you that is also my estimate
Now do you agree that there are more living now than have ever died?
SUTG
New member
No. I would say that this is highly unlikely.
I have heard that it is true and I believe it is true
I was hoping bob b could confirm it but so far he is ignoring me
Anyway just imagine that everyone who has ever lived could be alive at the same time in the very near future.
2012 sounds like a good year
This of course assumes reincarnation, which you may not be able to accept
Aimiel
Well-known member
Nope...
"The human population has swelled so much that people alive today outnumber all those who have ever lived, says a factoid whose roots stretch back to the 1970s. Some versions of this widely circulating rumor claim that 75 percent of all people ever born are currently alive. Yet, despite a quadrupling of the population in the past century, the number of people alive today is still dwarfed by the number of people who have ever lived."
Source: Scientific American article, located here.
"The human population has swelled so much that people alive today outnumber all those who have ever lived, says a factoid whose roots stretch back to the 1970s. Some versions of this widely circulating rumor claim that 75 percent of all people ever born are currently alive. Yet, despite a quadrupling of the population in the past century, the number of people alive today is still dwarfed by the number of people who have ever lived."
Source: Scientific American article, located here.
You start off with two couples or four people
Each couple has two and they marry and have two each
The original two couples die and now you have a population of eight
This is with only two generations alive at the same time when it is normal to have at least three
Each couple has two and they marry and have two each
The original two couples die and now you have a population of eight
This is with only two generations alive at the same time when it is normal to have at least three
You said you wanted to present evidence regarding population growth rates and your source was the UN reports on current population growth rates. I haven’t seen a single item from a UN report on current population growth rates. Nor have you addressed a single item I posted. As usual you change the subject or run from the debate.
We are not talking about adults dying immediately after the birthing period; we're talking about many not making it to ANY birthing period.
Where's your evidence 12 children per family made it to adulthood? You are showing a 5.8% growth rate and you have already admitted a 2.5% growth rate was “amazingly high” in sub-Sahara Africa. The only “magic” of the compound interest is that you are deciding what interest rate to use. If I could do that, I’d be rich in a year.
You’re saying that every 22 years a woman gives birth to 12 children. That’s one child every 22 months. Then you say none of them die until they have all had 12 children. What a joke. The only thing that is obvious is that you are manipulating the numbers to obtain the answers you want.
In case you didn't notice, the latest example I posted assumed 6 children per son, half the previous 12 of the first example.
SUTG
New member
Who did they marry? Where did those people come from? :wazzup:
The two children from the first couple married the two children from the second couple
mighty_duck
New member
Bob,
You would have to cut your exponential in half. When you say every son had 6 children, you mean every couple had 6 children, right? So that would mean that each generation triples its numbers after one generation.
That is still enough to reach numbers you want. 400 years translates to 16 generations.
3^16 = ~ 4 million.
Now all you need to prove is that the average couple in Egypt had 6 children survive to adulthood. Good luck.
You would have to cut your exponential in half. When you say every son had 6 children, you mean every couple had 6 children, right? So that would mean that each generation triples its numbers after one generation.
That is still enough to reach numbers you want. 400 years translates to 16 generations.
3^16 = ~ 4 million.
Now all you need to prove is that the average couple in Egypt had 6 children survive to adulthood. Good luck.
Punisher1984
New member
Isn't it simply amazing what a guy could do with the proper statistics? He can make them say anything he wants them to...
SUTG
New member
Assuming that children are as likely to be born male as they are to be born female, there is only a 25% chance that this is possible. :wazzup:
POPULATION GROWTH RATES - assuming four children per couple
Joseph and his brothers
As a check let us use the approach of enumeration.
Starting with the original 12 sons (and their wives of course)----0
12 sons have 4 children each - 24+48 = 72 ----------- 20
24 sons have 4 - 72+96 = 168 -------------------------40
48 sons have 4 - 168+192 = 360 ----------------------60
96 sons have 4 - 360+384 = 744 ----------------------80
192 sons have 4 - 744+768 = 1512 ------------------100
384 sons have 4 – 1512+1536 = 3048 ---------------120
768 sons have 4 – 3048+3072 = 6120 -------------- 140
1536 sons have 4 - 6120+6144 = 12264 ------------ 160
3072 sons have 4 –12264+12288 = 24552 --------- 180
6144 sons have 4 – 24552+24576 = 49128 -------- 200
12288 sons have 4 – 49128+49152 = 98,280 ------- 220
24576 sons have 4 – 98280+98304 = 196584 ------ 240
49152 sons have 4 – 196584+196608 = 385192 --- 260
98304 sons have 4 – 385192+393216 = 778408 --- 280
196608 sons have 4 – 778408+786432 = 1564840 - 300
Total population after 300 years and 15 generations = 1,564,840
If all adults died immediately after the birthing period the total would still be 786,432
This demonstrates the "magic" of compound interest.
The Bible says that 400 years after the brothers moved to Egypt their descendants had grown to 600,000 men, not counting women and children.
Joseph and his brothers
As a check let us use the approach of enumeration.
Starting with the original 12 sons (and their wives of course)----0
12 sons have 4 children each - 24+48 = 72 ----------- 20
24 sons have 4 - 72+96 = 168 -------------------------40
48 sons have 4 - 168+192 = 360 ----------------------60
96 sons have 4 - 360+384 = 744 ----------------------80
192 sons have 4 - 744+768 = 1512 ------------------100
384 sons have 4 – 1512+1536 = 3048 ---------------120
768 sons have 4 – 3048+3072 = 6120 -------------- 140
1536 sons have 4 - 6120+6144 = 12264 ------------ 160
3072 sons have 4 –12264+12288 = 24552 --------- 180
6144 sons have 4 – 24552+24576 = 49128 -------- 200
12288 sons have 4 – 49128+49152 = 98,280 ------- 220
24576 sons have 4 – 98280+98304 = 196584 ------ 240
49152 sons have 4 – 196584+196608 = 385192 --- 260
98304 sons have 4 – 385192+393216 = 778408 --- 280
196608 sons have 4 – 778408+786432 = 1564840 - 300
Total population after 300 years and 15 generations = 1,564,840
If all adults died immediately after the birthing period the total would still be 786,432
This demonstrates the "magic" of compound interest.
The Bible says that 400 years after the brothers moved to Egypt their descendants had grown to 600,000 men, not counting women and children.
I like a direct answer to a simple question
When will the world reach 7 billion
2012 Thanks!
I think it will be 2026
Needless to say, I will be long gone
I do not believe in reincarnation,
God loves us all and having to live twice would be too much, God is too merciful!
When will the world reach 7 billion
2012 Thanks!
I think it will be 2026
Needless to say, I will be long gone
I do not believe in reincarnation,
God loves us all and having to live twice would be too much, God is too merciful!
You're running from the questions I've asked.
You said you wanted to present evidence regarding population growth rates and your source was the UN reports on current population growth rates. I haven’t seen a single item from a UN report on current population growth rates. Nor have you addressed a single item I posted. As usual you change the subject or run from the debate.
We are not talking about adults dying immediately after the birthing period; we're talking about many not making it to ANY birthing period.
Where's your evidence 4 children per family made it to adulthood? You are showing a 4% growth rate and you have already admitted a 2.5% growth rate was “amazingly high” in sub-Sahara Africa. The only “magic” of the compound interest is that you are deciding what interest rate to use. If I could do that, I’d be rich in a year.
You’re only looking at a birth rate, not a growth rate. Bees have millions of offspring per generation. Why aren't we overrun with bees. The only thing that is obvious is that you are manipulating the numbers to obtain the answers you want.
The reason I did not bother looking for the UN data was that someone posted other data that proved my point.
I already did the enumeration analysis using only an average of 4 children per couple.
You don't seem to realize that an exponential curve is not appropriate until the population numbers grow higher.
Bee populations are kept in check by predators and other factors.
Humans are unique in the natural world by being able to control their environment to a much larger degree than any other creature.
No one has posted anything about growth rates or UN reports except your comment about “which according to the UN is amazingly high in subSahara Africa”. Where is that data?
You don’t seem to understand the difference between the birth rate and the growth rate. Although I’d bet you really do but don’t want to go there because it will blow your argument out of the water. It doesn’t matter how many children are born, it’s how many survive to reproduce that counts. Before modern medicine, infant mortality was very high, and still is in some places.
Then enlighten me. Where is your evidence that the standard way of calculating population growth does not apply to small populations and at what population does it start applying? You said in your first post that you wanted to present evidence, let’s see the evidence.
Exactly!!
Humans are able to control their environment to some degree. But you can not just pick a number out of the air and say every woman had 12 or 6 or 4 or any number of children and every one of them had exactly same number of children and nobody died. It’s got to be a reasonable number that can be validated by evidence.
Years ago human population was also kept in check by diseases and war. In fact the Bible records that the Jews themselves killed many women and children. It’s only in the past few decades when mankind has conquered many diseases that a growth rate of an astonishing 1.7% has been possible.
I already explained. Someone posted CIA data and that proved my point.
We have no reliable data on infant morality at the time of Moses.
It is obvious. People don't have partial children.
The CIA numbers provided the validation.
Your evidence for that please. The nations with the most diseases have the highest growth rates. This is because high birth rates trump high death rates every time as my enumeration example showed.