NFL 2017

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
The great thing about stats is that they are measured the same for everyone.
They are! And I've pointed out a couple leaks in QB rating as a statistic. I believe that ERA for instance, is a good way to measure a pitcher's overall performance in baseball, but I don't believe that QB rating is as good a metric as ERA is, in baseball.

Let's take a play. The passer to this point in the game, which is in the late fourth quarter, with the passer's team down three scores, needs to convert a third down. They need two yards. 'Passer throws to receiver for three yards, and the receiver runs out of bounds. Here are the passing stats after this crucial first down.

26 Attempts
16 Completions
260 Passing Yards
2 TDs
0 INTs

For a rating of 120.6 truncated.

If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable! It's because QB rating doesn't figure in third- or fourth-down conversions at all, never mind late in the fourth quarter, down three scores.

Also, now consider this. Next play, from the ten, passer throws right to a defender in the endzone, but the defender tips the ball up in the air, and an unintended receiver catches the ball for the TD. Rating now goes up, from 120.6 up to 133.2 truncated.

The passer threw what in baseball would be graded two ways---as a ball first-and-foremost, and as a WP (wild pitch) or maybe HBP (hit batsman, or hit by pitcher). It is certainly not something that will improve the pitcher's ERA, as it shouldn't, at best it would not hurt it, if there is nobody on base, and it's not strike three or ball four. But in the QB rating, such a pass is greatly rewarded.

There are tons of other easily imagined scenarios which show the inherent silliness of the QB rating. I love statistics. QB rating is a very limited metric, not only because there are things it just doesn't measure, but also because what it does measure promotes illogical behavior in quarterbacks who are trying to improve their own rating, even if, and maybe especially since, QBs are only doing it subliminally, because they keep track of their rating, but they don't consciously understand how a QB could increase their rating, while simultaneously decreasing the chances their team wins games.
And the qbs most people who've watched and really followed the NFL put in the best of discussion look exactly like that when you pour through those numbers.
It's impossible to not credit Graham. Montana's better than Brady in SBs. Manning until his last two years was better than Brady in the tournaments. And Brady's Pats have qualified for the tournament 14 of the 15 tries he's made, only missing, the season right after his first ring, 2002. That's right, he was playing quarterback for NE in 2002.

Brady is always in the discussion. He was in, even back when he lost to NYG to go 18-1 for that season. That was ten years ago, and he's been in the discussion for 10 years with most people who've watched and really followed the NFL.

'Just sayin.'
I've always thought Brees was underrated even with the level of recognition he does get. The numbers tend to bear that out. How great would he look on a consistently solid team with a real defense? Maybe the way the numbers suggest, the way he played in the one SB he had to play.
If a QB goes from 400 attempts for 2400 yards, to 400 attempts for 3600 yards (a 50% improvement), they can afford to throw 12 interceptions before their QB rating would drop lower than when they threw for only 2400 yards. 12 interceptions! That's how important YPA is, in the QB rating metric. I reject that that makes any sense. The passer should be penalized more than that, for throwing that many picks. Unless maybe, this makes up for getting an interception, after hitting the receiver in stride, and in the hands: and in the bread basket, but the receiver instead tips it right into the hands of a defender. It would have added a completion, yards, and a TD, but instead, it adds only an attempt, plus an interception, and the QB rating drops, but not as much as it should, if the interception is legitimately the fault of the passer. Maybe it all works out in the long-term, but some of these snapshots make the QB rating statistic, ridiculous.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
They are! And I've pointed out a couple leaks in QB rating as a statistic. I believe that ERA for instance, is a good way to measure a pitcher's overall performance in baseball, but I don't believe that QB rating is as good a metric as ERA is, in baseball.
Seems to be, given the guys almost anyone would put in the top shelf end up there by the metric. And while I take your point that no system is perfect, one that ends up with that batting average is pretty darn good. I mean, you can pick at anything, add dimensions, from quality of line play to defense and how long that gives a guy the ball, how much or how little pressure is on him, etc.

What I find is similar to what you see in the playoff structure. You get some variation but the teams that belong there tend to get there and the cream rises. Sometimes a team just gets hot. Sometimes a good team gets hot too late. And some qbs never get enough chances in the post season to evaluate just how good they might be with enough help (Rivers is a good example).

All that said, it goes back to what we find when we use the metric and what we find lines up with informed expectation.

If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable! It's because QB rating doesn't figure in third- or fourth-down conversions at all, never mind late in the fourth quarter, down three scores.
A batter isn't rated by how well he hits with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth either. But if we know how well he hits in the series we understand that will translate. And it does. Same for the rating. It's not all inclusive, but it hits the broad numbers that show up when it matters and the results speak to and for it.

There are tons of other easily imagined scenarios which show the inherent silliness of the QB rating.
No, there are all sorts of additions you can make, but they aren't needed. Most of them are marginal in nature, statistically speaking. What matters most is how accurate the qb is and how prone he is to making mistakes. How well he moves the ball. That demonstrably translates into wins, small and big. And comparing those gives us a real metric to compare qbs.

So sure, it won't show you the greatest thing about Peyton, his reading of defenses. And it won't necessarily show you Marino's release or the time scramblers buy with their legs to set up defensive breakdowns and easier passing lanes, but all those differences wash out in the end and it's still an effective means to rate the efficacy of play at the position. It simply isn't perfect. What system is?

I love statistics. QB rating is a very limited metric, not only because there are things it just doesn't measure, but also because what it does measure promotes illogical behavior in quarterbacks who are trying to improve their own rating, even if, and maybe especially since, QBs are only doing it subliminally, because they keep track of their rating, but they don't consciously understand how a QB could increase their rating, while simultaneously decreasing the chances their team wins games.
The great ones don't play to the stats. They rarely chase a record, by way of.

It's impossible to not credit Graham.
I credited him. I said he could be considered the best of the old guard, though I'd take Unitas in a play off run. Graham was a great regular season qb whose game didn't translate as readily to the playoffs, but he won anyway.

Montana's better than Brady in SBs.
He's better than anyone in that game. And he's better than anyone short of Rodgers and Brees in the playoffs in general. That's part of what makes him the GOAT. I'm not saying a qb will win hardware by himself, though he can greatly increase the chances. But what I will say is that you can look at what he contributes when it matters most and that's the difference maker when you're talking about a group that closely bunched at the top, if for different reasons.

Manning until his last two years was better than Brady in the tournaments.
He was better across the board until his body broke. What's amazing about it is how much he did after the neck injury. I never will understand how he compensated for what he lost. It was amazing he held it together that long.

And Brady's Pats have qualified for the tournament 14 of the 15 tries he's made, only missing, the season right after his first ring, 2002. That's right, he was playing quarterback for NE in 2002.
A great run. One of the most solid teams and solidly coached teams, consistently.

Brady is always in the discussion. He was in, even back when he lost to NYG to go 18-1 for that season. That was ten years ago, and he's been in the discussion for 10 years with most people who've watched and really followed the NFL.
Anyone that good for that long has to be. It would be insulting to not put him into the mix. Same with Jabbar in the NBA, though neither are the GOAT. They've earned the mention, the consideration at least.

If a QB goes from 400 attempts for 2400 yards, to 400 attempts for 3600 yards (a 50% improvement), they can afford to throw 12 interceptions before their QB rating would drop lower than when they threw for only 2400 yards. 12 interceptions! That's how important YPA is, in the QB rating metric.
There's another rating metric. I think ESPN cobbled it...a different approach, but you still end up with the same guys at the top. And yeah, I think it all works out in the end. A guy who throws ill considered picks will throw enough of them. A guy who is let down by his wrs will have new wrs and over time that will show up too.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
The NFL QB rating isn't called "QB rating". It is called "efficiency rating", and it is an excellent tool to determine who gets the most out of their passing game. As it should be. QBs who need 45 pass attempts to get big numbers are not rewarded. As stated, it is per attempt. Yards, completions, interceptions, and touchdowns.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable!

This is kind of meaningless, as a QB who converts on 3rd down, yet missed 20 of 28 passes, saw his rating go up.
 

Nihilo

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Banned
This is kind of meaningless, as a QB who converts on 3rd down, yet missed 20 of 28 passes, saw his rating go up.
30% completion percentage and beneath, are counted the same in the QB/efficiency rating; you're correct. So the QB wouldn't get any bump from the 3rd down completion itself, and the three yards wouldn't be enough to move the needle on yards-per-attempt either.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Completion percentage is a huge piece of efficiency rating. Funny how the QB at the top right now and you are promoting has that high rating you are putting down. Think about it. You are smarter than that.
 

JPPT1974

Well-known member
Think before week 1 of the NFL 2017 season it could be either Bears QB Mitch Tribusky or Texans QB DeShaun Watson to start as a rookie.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Did anyone catch the preseason game between the Cowboys and the Colts? The Boys' first team offense didn't miss Zeke much!
Did the Colts draft a defense during the off season? :) Weren't they like 8th from the bottom in pts allowed last year? So you might want to wait and see when they play someone who can stop someone.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Did you see the game, especially the first team offense of the Cowboys?

The passing game has really improved this year because Dez is healthy and Dak has had the opportunity to have a training camp with him.
 

Nihilo

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Banned
Did you see the game, especially the first team offense of the Cowboys?

The passing game has really improved this year because Dez is healthy and Dak has had the opportunity to have a training camp with him.
I don't watch preseason. What's the point of getting all worked up over meaningless games. Of course, meaningless games sometimes contain season-ending injuries to players right in their prime. :(
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
Completion percentage is a huge piece of efficiency rating. Funny how the QB at the top right now and you are promoting has that high rating you are putting down. Think about it. You are smarter than that.
Completion percentage is one measure of accuracy, and interception percentage is another. Let's break apart the rating number into accuracy f(completions + picks), and production f(touchdowns + yards).

SB performance
(accuracy):
Montana 71.277 truncated (regular season 56.535)
Brady 63.666 truncated (regular season 61.387)

(production):
Montana 56.557 / regular season 35.712
Brady 31.607 / regular season 37.182

Montana upped his game for SBs, in both accuracy, and in production, and dramatically so. There's no comparison, no matter how many ways you slice it up. Brady is better than Montana was in the regular season, and Montana was way better than Brady in SBs.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Montana upped his game for SBs, in both accuracy, and in production, and dramatically so.

Many NFL QBs that are legends, Hall of Fame, wilted in the Super Bowl under the pressure of the game, and usually a damn good defense. And you know which one did not, but got better.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Brady is better than Montana was in the regular season, and Montana was way better than Brady in SBs.

I wonder how Montana would have done against the 70's Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl? On defense they had Hall of Famers Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount and Mean Joe Greene. L.C. Greenwood (All-Decade Team) and Ernie Holmes and Dwight White joined Greene to make up the Steel Curtain.

A couple of games against that team in the Super Bowl and Montana's stats no longer look so great!
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Getting ready for another NFL season in a week. I don't know if I'll be tackling it like I did in the past, but pulling together rough numbers I couldn't help notice a thing I'd commented on before, that New England only wins when they have one of the best defenses. Last year they had the third best offense in the league, though they were rivaled by GB, Dal, Arz, Ind, SD (within 3 pts). What set them apart was the defense, with only the Giants and Sea within reach, a number of teams hanging around in the tier after that.

In fact, setting up a standard relative to overall output and allowance, NE should have been a 6 pt favorite on a neutral field. Dallas would have been an 8 pt dog.

AFC East: New England is easily the class of the division, adding more offensive weapons and some defensive help in the off season, which hardly seems fair. Buffalo may be lacking confidence, having cleared house scouting wise after the draft. That doesn't say much about their organizational strength or how much faith they appear to have, talent wise. The Jests aren't awful on defense, considering how long their offense leaves them on the field, but what's the offense going to look like? Miami, as always, appears poised to be a good but not a great team.

AFC North: One of the best defensive divisions, Pittsburgh looks to remain atop it by virtue of a more consistently top tier offense, leaving Cin. and Bal vying for second place. The Bengals lost a couple of important pieces to their O line and that doesn't bode well for a challenger. Flacco's contract continues to hobble as his skill set appears in decline, and Cle, of course, waiting for next year.

AFC South
: Luck and Indy are still the prohibitive favorites, but Ten could be looking to spoil as they brought in some help for Mariota, who had a great year prior to injury. Texas needs offense, so without something happening at qb this year they look to be battling Jacksonville for the bottom spot.

AFC West: Strangely enough, KC and Den are in a similar position, with both needing better qb play to take superior defenses the extra step. Will Alex improve marginally enough to be the difference maker, or will Reed have to develop the intriguing Mahome and delay hopes for the faithful. Whoever Denver finally goes with to pull the franchise back on top will have a lot of help defensively (trade for AJ, Denver) but is he in camp? The Chargers may be changing geographical location, but there's no reason to believe that will translate within the division absent defensive help Rivers has been needing for a while. It's looking more and more like he'll be another top talent wasted on a career with the Bolts. That leaves Oakland, who was an upright qb removed from a serious playoff run late in the year. Was that a sign of things to come for the silver and black?

Prediction: absent terrible injury breaks or Brady hitting the wall there's little reason for Patriot fans to worry about another appearance in the conference championship game and an odds on favorite chance to return for a stab at another ring for the Golden Boy.

Spoiler potential: KC, Denver, or Pittsburgh. I've given up on Cin as constituted.


NFC East: On paper it's Dallas, but recent events might put a crimp in that clear pathway to divisional dominance. Took hits on the O line and look to be missing their star rb for a stretch. Philly will look to continue improving and contending and the Giants are an offensive run away from scaring everyone (time to shine, Eli). Cousins and Washington are solid as well in the toughest division in the NFL.

NFC North: I call this the wild card division, because GB and Min aren't really that far apart (closer with the loss of two O linemen by the Pack) and Det showed flashes that might signal an emergence as a serious team. Chicago has a lot to prove.

NFC South: It's a shame New Orleans is stuck behind Atlanta, but go tell that to anyone in the East. Anyway, maybe if Peterson can show us something's left in the tank and help keep opposing offenses off the field, Brees could upset the more talented but fragile Falcons, who will either be reeling from last years absurd choke, or angry enough to blast through anyone in route to a redemption year. Carolina added serious help for Cam which might mean a very competitive division this year. TB will continue to improve, but their time is likely two years away.

NFL West: The west doesn't look too competitive for Seattle, if last year was any indication. Arizona missed their window with Palmer. And, of course the Rams and Niners are in there...

Prediction: Atlanta will rebound and Seattle will challenge with spoilers everywhere, from Green Bay to Philly...and don't forget the Giants late.

Top 15 Teams on paper: My picks, Bleacher, ESPN, USA

1.NE - NE - NE - NE
2. Atl - Sea - Atl - Atl
3. Dal - Atl - Sea - Pit
4. GB - Pit - Pit - GB
5. Pit - GB - GB - Sea
6. Sea - Oak- Dal - Dal
7. KC - Dal - Oak - Oak
8. Oak - KC -KC - Ten
9. Arz - Gia - Den - KC
10. Den - Den - Arz - Gia
11. Ten - Ten - Gia - Mia
12. Phi - TB - Ten - TB
13. Gia - Arz - TB - Den
14. Car - Phi - Tex - Arz
15. Cin - Cin - Phi - Bal










 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
OK Sports Fans!

The season is upon us and it is time to make our picks:

Patriots -8.5
Chiefs

I take the Chiefs and the points. Eldelman will be missed and the Patriot's offense will struggle.

Cowboys -3.5
Giants

The Boys will beat the spread easily as the Giants will not be able to take advantage of Dallas' depleted secondary.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
OK Sports Fans!

The season is upon us and it is time to make our picks:

Patriots -8.5
Chiefs

I take the Chiefs and the points. Eldelman will be missed and the Patriot's offense will struggle.
I like New England, but by 7 so I'll take the points.

Cowboys -3.5
Giants

The Boys will beat the spread easily as the Giants will not be able to take advantage of Dallas' depleted secondary.
It's all about the Giant's offense. I have them settling for fgs (3) and Dallas making a modest statement. Say, 17 pts against that solid Giant's defense. But if we get more out of Eli with a new weapon to balance things out, it could get interesting.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Not crunching numbers this year, at least not now. Too busy. But flying by my pants, here goes a look at

NFL Week One

KC @ NE: The Pats are favored by 8.5. Money is going 58/42 with NE. Tom won't have all the familiar pieces in play, but the real question is what KC will look like and how competitive will be in the AFC. Time to start getting excited, Chief's fans...about next year. Oh, the game? That's a big line. Brady will probably make it, but it could as easily be a 7 pt late bit. That said, the Chiefs have more to be excited about next year than this, as Alex has proven he's a very good placeholder for the heir apparent, which KC might have just gotten for Reid. New England until proven otherwise.

Edit: I changed my pick to KC against the line/NE straight up late because I had it 21 - 14 Pats once the numbers broke down. And since that was the only game and nearly everyone picked New England I'm sitting in a tie for 1st place. :D



Atl @ Chi: The historic meltdown notwithstanding, the Birds are a 7.5 fav. Money is 81/19 for Atlanta. Let's go crazy and say Chicago has found its offensive answer relative to the talent on hand. Give them...20 pts. Atlanta should still be good for 30 or so. Atlanta and the pts.

Jets @ Buf: Buf by 6.5? Money is 74/26 Buffalo. Two truly bad teams in a game not even their fans should be excited about. I'll take the team with a quarterback. I guess that means it's time to go with the Bills. Whoop...whoop.

Bal @ Cin: 2.5 for the home team. Money is 68/32 Bengals. Baltimore looked better in the preseason, but Flacco is iffy and that makes the situation...fluid. Like a head cold. The Bengals are a qb switch and a new coach away from seriously contending. :eek: Okay. I'll take the Bengals and a fg, because one of them has to win.

Pit @ Cle: Steelers by 9.5. Money is 70/30 Steelers. A big number against nearly any team. But can the Browns score tds against the Steelers? A big road number, but I'll take Ben and company to make it happen against the unproven, unlovable losers from Cleveland.

Arz @ Det: Lions 2.5. Money is 67/33 against the line and for Arizona. How far has the Cardinals stock fallen, because no one is that excited about Detroit, even inside Detroit. Maybe someone thinks the wheels are coming off on the road, but until I see it I'll take the Cardinals.

Oak @ Ten: Oak .5. Money is 73/27 Raiders cover. Considering how good the Raiders looked until they lost their qb that's a real shot across their bow, or a sign that Vegas thinks the Titans are on the verge of living up to their name. I have this as a push...so maybe I'm a believer too? I'll make this one my crazy leap and take Tennessee to surprise the heck out of the money.

TB @ Mia: Fins .5 Money is 72/28 against the line. This is another of those games you hate. Miami is a solid team and they have a habit of looking surprisingly good early before coming right back to good but not great late. TB has the potential to contend, but they're unproven and much will rest on their steadily improving and immensely talented signal caller. :think: I have no faith in this one, but the numbers skew Miami and a fg so there I go.

Phi @ Was: Was 2.5. Money is 56/44 with Washington. A meaningful game between two teams that need to take advantage of the Cowboys' problems. This is a near push for me and I'm going to take the marginal upset because I think Philly is a team and Washington is a talented group of players at this point.

Jac @ Hou
: Hou 4.5 Money is 79/21 for the Texans. I don't know why, exactly. Maybe fans are ready for that deadly double pressure line to finally arrive with everyone healthy. Why not. Houston. But they still need an offense.

Ind @ Rams: Indy 3.5 Money is 53/47 Rams over Luck's availability. Looks iffy and that's the reason I'm taking the Rams at home.

Sea @ GB: Pack by 2.5. Money is 73/27 with the Pack. The first game to get really excited about. I have it yet another push, but I think it's more important for the Pack to make a home statement and I like Aaron to find a way to at least set up a winning fg in what promises to be an entertaining contest. Pack.

Car @ SF: Car by 5.5 Money takes Carolina 85/15. Why even think about this one. Carolina.

Gia @ Dal: Cowboys ar 4.5 favorite. Money is all over the Giants 62/38 for the upset...of at least the line. I'm not confident about Dallas going against this defense one dimensionally. The more I think about it the less I like it. I'm going to play a hunch, say Eli finds a groove and Dallas can't handle the truth of life temporarily absent half their offensive fire power. Giants.

NO @ Min
: Min by 3.5. Money is eating this one up and taking the Saints 66/44. I'm with the money. The Saints may not be able to stop anyone, but they've added fire power to the offense and may be able to keep their defense off the field a bit longer with a strong running game. Saints for the upset.

SD @ Den
: Den by 3.5. Money says sure 68/32. Still needs a qb who comes to play, but against that defense who won't look the part? It's a shame they can't let Rivers cross the line and give him the chance he'll never get with the Chargers. Denver.
 
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Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Meanwhile...because I'm bored...

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Okay, it's not bad, but in my defense, Jack was underfoot and I had the right answer on the question that I tried to enter literally just as "The last answer was not submitted, as the time ran out."

:mmph: So I'm at least a point higher than Blaine and I feel confident I can do better with Jack somewhere other than my lap. :eek:

From my new Fun Tests thread:
Wunderlic (take a shot at seeing where you fall among the NFL players)
 
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