ARCHIVE: Signals from space aliens or random chance?

[Knight]

It's not likely to happen in my lifetime because 60-100 years is not a significant length of time. Yes, it could happen, and the probability of it happening at any one point is the same as at any other point. But the chance of it happening within 100 years is lower than the chance of it happening within a zillion.

Layla the random signals from space that SETI is listening to have been generated since the creation of the universe. Your lifetime is occurring billions of years since the beginning (if you believe the universe is billions of years old). It's irrelevant that SETI is only now tracking those signals.

If it could happen, it could happen at any time.

Do you believe such a signal could be generated randomly but it might take a few more billion years? If so why?

[Layla]

Layla the random signals from space that SETI is listening to have been generated since the creation of the universe. Your lifetime is occurring billions of years since the beginning (if you believe the universe is billions of years old). It's irrelevant that SETI is only now tracking those signals.

If it could happen, it could happen at any time.

Do you believe such a signal could be generated randomly but it might take a few more billion years? If so why?

Er, it's not irrelevant. It's the point. We've only been listening for 40 years, and the chance of it occurring within that time frame is ridiculously low. That there were billions of years preceding the ones that we've been listening for signals in makes no difference. As I said, the increased chace relates to the number of tries you measure -- 40 years worth is nothing!

I believe it's possible, given billions and billions of years. I don't see it as particularly relevant or useful, though, it's purely a theoretical standpoint. I don't think it'll ever happen for us to witness.

[Prisca]

Er, it's not irrelevant. It's the point. We've only been listening for 40 years, and the chance of it occurring within that time frame is ridiculously low. That there were billions of years preceding the ones that we've been listening for signals in makes no difference. As I said, the increased chace relates to the number of tries you measure -- 40 years worth is nothing!

I believe it's possible, given billions and billions of years. I don't see it as particularly relevant or useful, though, it's purely a theoretical standpoint. I don't think it'll ever happen for us to witness.

In other words, you would believe it was a random event and not a sign of intelligent life?

[Knight]

I believe it's possible, given billions and billions of years.

Layla according to you there HAVE been billions and billions of years!

Think of it like this....
Lets say you have 20 dice. And you want to roll all 20 dice at once. And the desired result is that you want all the dice to come up as a 1 on the same roll. 20 dice rolled, all landing on 1.

Lets say some folks start rolling the dice on January 1st 2009. Are you arguing that there is a certain time-frame after the start of the experiment where it would be more likely that the desired result come up while you where in the room?

Essentially what you are saying is it would be pointless to schedule your visit to see the successful result of the dice roll for some arbitrary amount of time. Which of course is silly. Each time the dice is rolled there are the exact same odds that you will get your desired result. It could happen on day one, or it could happen 5 years down the road.

Likewise, the signal from space could just as easily be generated in your lifetime as it could be any other time in history, assuming the signal was a product of random chance.

[Layla]

In other words, you would believe it was a random event and not a sign of intelligent life?

No. I actually stated, in so many words, that I'd probably be inclined to believe it was intelligent life.

[Knight]

In other words, you would believe it was a random event and not a sign of intelligent life?

Well, so far both Layla and Mr. Jack have agreed that it would be a sign of intelligent life.

If it could be demonstrated not to be a hoax? I'd accept that as conclusive evidence of intelligent life.

I'd probably be inclined to believe it was intelligent life.

Now, we need to figure out why they would believe that.

P.S. I would also agree it was definitive proof of intelligent life in outer space.

[arglebargle]

Imagine that you visiting your friend for the weekend and your friend works for the SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence), I am sure you are all familiar with them, they sit around all day, everyday for the last 48 years or so scanning the universe for signals that come from the darkness of space looking to see if any of these signals demonstrate the hallmarks of intelligence i.e., some type of pattern. Said in short... they search the heavens for intelligent life in the universe.

And in all those years the SETI project has had really only one "wow" moment where a signal resembled something "other" than random noise. Now of course this "wow" moment didn't really amount to much other than a few characters lined up a tad more orderly than usual. I attached the "wow" signal below so you could see the minor order in the sea of randomness.

All the efforts of Seti to-date amount to the same thing as looking at the universe through a 3-foot long soda straw. We really haven't looked at much at all... just a few thousand nearby stars. New technology is coming on line... a few elements of the Allen telescope array are up and running... which will increase our present abilities 1,000 fold, and more. Soon, there will be several million stars subject to the Seti search.

But lets imagine that on the weekend you were visiting something much more than a "wow" moment occurred. Lets imagine that a signal was detected emanating from the depths of space that read.....

"people of earth, we would like to introduce ourselves to you we are a race of intelligent creatures that lives in a galaxy far, far away and we want to communicate to you that you are not alone in the universe.".

Obviously, this message would be one of the most incredible discoveries in the history of mankind.

Such a message would be a hoax. We're looking at the electromagnetic spectrum, and there's a speed limit... the speed of light. The NEAREST neighboring galaxy is Andromeda... and that's about 2.5 million light years away. That means that the aliens would have had to started their message on its way... about the time that 'Homo habilis' was bopping around the savannas.

But what would you believe? Would you believe it was actually sent from an intelligent life source from another galaxy? Or would you believe it was merely an amazing coincidence of chance that caused a random signal to just appear to have that amazing understandable order?

See above. Random... horseshit (excuse the language... I think the proposition warrants it.)

Now, I am pretty sure that a signal coming from outer space that had 40 words in a comprehensible order... (i.e., "people of earth, we would like to introduce ourselves to you we are a race of intelligent creatures that lives in a galaxy far, far away and we want to communicate to you that you are not alone in the universe.") is still FAR, FAR, FAR, more likely to occur by chance than a tennis ball passing through a brick wall or a picture of Marilyn Monroe juggling fish, accidentally generated on a computer screen by random pixels.

Agreed... although not from as far away as you have proposed. First of all, we've only been 'lit up' (emitting electromagnetic radiation) for around 100 years... and not with any appreciable power output until World War II (radar sets). So... only civilizations within 60 light-years will even have had a reasonable opportunity to 'notice' us.

Therefore, I would love an honest answer from all of you to the following question.... (finally I get to my question)

Would you be able to determine based on that signal from space that their was intelligent life in the universe, and they were trying to communicate with us? Or would you deny the existence of intelligent life and write off the message as being merely the product of random chance that was "bound to happen"?

What would be your assumption and why?

Thank you in advance for your honest answer.

I think that such a signal is highly unlikely... but if it does happen, it's not going to be any time soon.

However, there IS a high likelihood that there are other life-bearing planets... LOTS of them. Recent advances in astronomy have revealed that planets around other stars are the RULE, rather than the exception. There have been over 200 discovered so far... but they're mostly gas giants, mostly at least a few times larger than Jupiter. There have been a few 'rocky' planets found that could be considered 'earth-like'... but they're several times bigger than earth... and that's about all that we know about them, so far.

Within the next 20 years, there will be new space-based and ground-based telescopes coming on line that will enable us to not only detect earth-like planets... we'll be able to spectrographically analyze atmospheric gasses, and determine whether life is present.

People think that earth is special because it has an oxygen atmosphere. What they don't know is that when life took hold on earth, there was NOT an oxygen atmosphere... in fact there was very LITTLE free oxygen. Early life... over the first few billion years... CREATED the oxygen-rich atmosphere. In other words, out planet and life evolved together... interactively.

Personally... I think that life is only a couple of orders of magnitude less common than dirt, in the universe... and that within the next 20 to 30 years, that will be demonstrated beyond the shadow of any doubt.

What'cha gonna do then?

[OMEGA]

Could be a Quasar
End transmission

[Jahdal]

Knight,

Do you mean "random" as in some other life-form sent out a message like SETI has out in the universe and we happened to pick it up?

[OMEGA]

KNIGHT ,

They are just different kinds of DEMONS that are have been Imprisoned here

since Satan's Rebellion. They are just trying to deceive people into thinking

that they are from outerspace but they are really stuck here until God and Jesus

come back and throw them in the Fire.

[Layla]

Layla according to you there HAVE been billions and billions of years!

Where did I say that?

I don't know how long the universe has existed.

Think of it like this....
Lets say you have 20 dice. And you want to roll all 20 dice at once. And the desired result is that you want all the dice to come up as a 1 on the same roll. 20 dice rolled, all landing on 1.

Lets say some folks start rolling the dice on January 1st 2009. Are you arguing that there is a certain time-frame after the start of the experiment where it would be more likely that the desired result come up while you where in the room?

Essentially what you are saying is it would be pointless to schedule your visit to see the successful result of the dice roll for some arbitrary amount of time. Which of course is silly. Each time the dice is rolled there are the exact same odds that you will get your desired result. It could happen on day one, or it could happen 5 years down the road.

Likewise, the signal from space could just as easily be generated in your lifetime as it could be any other time in history, assuming the signal was a product of random chance.

Incorrect. You've missed the point I tried so hard to convey to you. Yes, you are correct that the chance of the outcome you're looking for occurring is the same for each try. However, it is not the same for 10 tries as for 50, 100, 200, or 60 billion.

If the universe has existed for billions of years, then that makes it a little bit more likely that such a thing could occur within that time frame. However, we haven't been listening since the universe began.

You're looking for a 1 when a single die is rolled. If 200 dice are rolled simultaneously, the chance of at least 1 of them showing a 1 is near 100%. However, if you only look at 2 of them, do you think that there is the same likelyhood of at least 1 of them showing a 1 as there would be if you looked at all 200?

[arglebargle]

OK, then use another example. How about the example of random pixels being sent to a computer screen. Some argue that eventually these random pixels will display a detailed picture of Marilyn Monroe juggling fish while smoking cigars. If you agree that will never happen then I guess you can gracefully bow out of this thread because you and I agree.

How about you just answer the question I asked in the opening post so that we can have a discussion?

I think that such speculations are ridiculous... although I'd be willing to hope for it, depending on whether or not she had any clothes on.

[Layla]

Well, so far both Layla and Mr. Jack have agreed that it would be a sign of intelligent life.



Now, we need to figure out why they would believe that.

P.S. I would also agree it was definitive proof of intelligent life in outer space.

I'd believe it because it's more likely. Which I've already stated. No figuring out required.

[Knight]

Such a message would be a hoax.

It's a hypothetical and we have ruled out a hoax.

See above. Random... horseshit (excuse the language... I think the proposition warrants it.)

Watch your language or you will be banned.

I think that such a signal is highly unlikely... but if it does happen, it's not going to be any time soon.

The hypothetical is that it DID happen.

Are you incapable of discussing hypothetical arguments?

However, there IS a high likelihood that there are other life-bearing planets... LOTS of them. Recent advances in astronomy have revealed that planets around other stars are the RULE, rather than the exception. There have been over 200 discovered so far... but they're mostly gas giants, mostly at least a few times larger than Jupiter. There have been a few 'rocky' planets found that could be considered 'earth-like'... but they're several times bigger than earth... and that's about all that we know about them, so far.

Within the next 20 years, there will be new space-based and ground-based telescopes coming on line that will enable us to not only detect earth-like planets... we'll be able to spectrographically analyze atmospheric gasses, and determine whether life is present.

People think that earth is special because it has an oxygen atmosphere. What they don't know is that when life took hold on earth, there was NOT an oxygen atmosphere... in fact there was very LITTLE free oxygen. Early life... over the first few billion years... CREATED the oxygen-rich atmosphere. In other words, out planet and life evolved together... interactively.

Personally... I think that life is only a couple of orders of magnitude less common than dirt, in the universe... and that within the next 20 to 30 years, that will be demonstrated beyond the shadow of any doubt.

What'cha gonna do then?

Notice how arglebargle isn't coming within a million miles of addressing the opening post, he will not answer the question I posed. Why not you ask??? There is a very good reason he is staying clear of answering because he knows full well the implications of either answer.

Lets mark arglebargle down as "unable to answer".

[Knight]

KNIGHT ,

They are just different kinds of DEMONS that are have been Imprisoned here

since Satan's Rebellion. They are just trying to deceive people into thinking

that they are from outerspace but they are really stuck here until God and Jesus

come back and throw them in the Fire.

Final warning. If you attempt to hijack the thread one more time you will be banned.