Coronavirus slowing down.
- Thread starter Hobie
- Start date
That vertical spike in infections cannot be natural. What caused it? Active testing in an area that had never been tested before? A change in testing methods? A massive increase in testing? Something caused it other than the natural spread of the virus. It's like the USC/Stanford testing done in California where the number of cases two counties jumped by up to 85 times because of a different method of testing. Looking for antibodies rather than the virus itself.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
I would suspect reporting anamolies - the news out of the UK yesterday was about inaccurate data reporting from an area of Wales (I think - can't find it) because everybody had assumed they had gone electronic but they were still using paper - betcha a lot of the Central and South American countries are in the same boat, disparate reporting methods, no standardization, etc
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
This is an interesting report from the Guardian from April 7 - it's a little confusing as it has some sections that are apparently being updated periodically - but is titled "How can coronavirus models get it so wrong?" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong
and has this prediction that I hadn't seen before:
and has this prediction that I hadn't seen before:
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
This merits a closer look as well - Nature is reliable
Coronavirus updates: the first three months as it happened
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
Coronavirus updates: the first three months as it happened
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
Both of those last two references point up the difficulty in second-guessing the decisions that were made throughout January, February, March with data and understandings that were changing, often on a daily basis
I would argue that Trump made good decisions based on the advice he was given from medical professionals who were, ultimately, guessing.
Cuomo as well - his recommendations were sound, and just as soundly ignored by NYC. My fault with him was in failing to implement mandatory measures earlier.
We in NNY acted upon those recommendations and it shows. 60 confirmed cases in my county, 0 deaths.
I would argue that Trump made good decisions based on the advice he was given from medical professionals who were, ultimately, guessing.
Cuomo as well - his recommendations were sound, and just as soundly ignored by NYC. My fault with him was in failing to implement mandatory measures earlier.
We in NNY acted upon those recommendations and it shows. 60 confirmed cases in my county, 0 deaths.
way 2 go
Well-known member
should have banned flights from china sooner and any repatriation people should have been quarantined by the goverment 21 days
way 2 go
Well-known member
The government has since barred all foreign travellers from entering the island.
Taiwan also created a health questionnaire that passengers accessed by scanning a QR code with their phones while still on planes as they were arriving.
Depending on their health status, they were sent a text message providing them with a health declaration pass to fast-track through immigration. Anyone at a higher risk of infection was urged to go into self-isolation at home and tracked via their cellphone to make sure they stayed there. False reporting of health information became a fineable offence.
"So this way they could triage a large number of passengers very quickly without lining up in the airport, which in itself is a risk," Wang said.
Taiwan also created a health questionnaire that passengers accessed by scanning a QR code with their phones while still on planes as they were arriving.
Depending on their health status, they were sent a text message providing them with a health declaration pass to fast-track through immigration. Anyone at a higher risk of infection was urged to go into self-isolation at home and tracked via their cellphone to make sure they stayed there. False reporting of health information became a fineable offence.
"So this way they could triage a large number of passengers very quickly without lining up in the airport, which in itself is a risk," Wang said.
So, if all your advisors, medical and political, are telling you not to, why are you going to do that? And when Trump did restrict travel to and from China, what happened? The media and the political left went insane calling him a racist. That's when Pelosi went to Chinatown and told everyone to come on down and visit Chinatown as it was a very safe place to go.
I look at this as the same problem Lincoln had during the civil war. He was friends with Frederick Douglass who was telling him to release the Emancipation Proclamation. Lincoln knew what a firestorm it would create in the media of the day so he waited until the time was right politically to make the announcement. Douglass was angry with him for the delay and the media was angry just because he'd released it, but the circumstances right then made the responses much more muted than they would have been earlier. It was a position of hanged if he did and hanged if he didn't. But the North's need for soldiers because of all the casualties the North had suffered allowed him to release it and begin inducting blacks into the army and he couldn't do it with the blacks not being free.
Lincoln had a great knack for political timing, and so does Trump. He does things at the right time and when he does he gets the left to do what he wants them to do just by telling them not to. Look at how he got the Democrat governors to jump at promoting federalism just because he told them he had all the power. Federalism is something the Democrats hate, and they couldn't jump to support it fast enough just because Trump told them they couldn't do it. It was just like telling a little kid he can't do something so he'll do exactly that. It works like a charm. I used to that to my little brother. He wouldn't do anything I asked him to do so I'd tell him he couldn't do it. The result was he couldn't do it fast enough.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
[h=1]Republican Gov. Doug Ducey extends Arizona's stay-at-home order to May 15 -- https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/gov-doug-ducey-extends-arizonas-stay-at-home-order-to-may-15[/h]
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
Just did a tally of my state by county, of the total deaths.
97% of the deaths in New York State are in the Metro New York City area.
Only 3% of the deaths are in Upstate NY. And the bulk of those are in the metro areas - Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Binghamton.
Only 0.08% of the deaths are in Northern New York, the nine northernmost counties in the state, encompassing roughly a third of the area (and the Adirondack Park). A total of 15 deaths.
Seven counties in the state are reporting 0 deaths (like mine).
Six counties are reporting 1 death each.
Nine counties are reporting 2 deaths each.
And twenty-eight more counties are reporting fewer than 100 each.
The grand total for those 50 counties is 459 deaths.
Also did a tally of the National total deaths, by state, to check the correction factor I determined a few days ago, of 0.54.
It checks out, this time I got a little higher number, 0.56.
56% of the national total of deaths are from the Metro NYC area.
97% of the deaths in New York State are in the Metro New York City area.
Only 3% of the deaths are in Upstate NY. And the bulk of those are in the metro areas - Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Binghamton.
Only 0.08% of the deaths are in Northern New York, the nine northernmost counties in the state, encompassing roughly a third of the area (and the Adirondack Park). A total of 15 deaths.
Seven counties in the state are reporting 0 deaths (like mine).
Six counties are reporting 1 death each.
Nine counties are reporting 2 deaths each.
And twenty-eight more counties are reporting fewer than 100 each.
The grand total for those 50 counties is 459 deaths.
Also did a tally of the National total deaths, by state, to check the correction factor I determined a few days ago, of 0.54.
It checks out, this time I got a little higher number, 0.56.
56% of the national total of deaths are from the Metro NYC area.
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way 2 go
Well-known member
to avoid this shutdown of the economy .
some of us knew there was an outbreak in china in December
Taiwan knew but no one listened.
cut off their nose to spite their face .
so what do you think should happen next time ?