The Trump Budget

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

This thread is devoted to everything that has to do with the Trump budget. It is early in the planning stages but he has indicated that we wants to increase military spending by 10% ($54 billion), increase law enforcement budgets and increase infrastructure budgets.

He wants to make cuts at the EPA, foreign aid and non-defense federal agencies. Source

The cuts sound great but the EPA has an annual total budget of $8.14 billion. All foreign aid totals up to $35.2 billion and cutting non-defence federal agencies is too vague to put a price on.

So, if we completely eliminate the EPA and eliminate all foreign aid we are ahead $43.34 billion. This, however, leaves us in the hole somewhere around $10.66 billion and we know he isn't going to eliminate all foreign aid and isn't shutting down the EPA.

Again, this doesn't not include increasing spending on law enforcement or infrastructure and does not include cutting non-defense federal agencies. I would be willing to bet, however, that there will be a net increase in spending between these three plans. Top economists forecasted that his budget plan would add $5.8 trillion to the national debt, according to The Wall Street Journal.

This is all when Trump is also talking about cutting taxes. This is a move I am in support of but if he is going to increase spending and decrease the government's income through tax cuts, how high can our budget deficit go?

We will find out March 15th when the deficit ceiling must be increased yet again.

Spoiler

Two weeks after David Stockman warned that "the market is apparently pricing in a huge Trump stimulus. But if you just look at the real world out there, the only thing that's going to happen is a fiscal bloodbath and a White House train wreck like never before in U.S. history" and exclaimed that, when looking at markets, "what's going on today is complete insanity" he is back with another interview, this time with Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog in which he, once again warns, that a giant fiscal bloodbatch is coming soon, and urges listeners to pay especially close attention to the March 15, 2017 debt ceiling deadling, at which point everything could "grind to a halt."

As Greg Hunter writes, former Reagan Administration White House Budget Director David Stockman says financial pain is a mathematical certainty. Stockman explains, “I think we are likely to have more of a fiscal bloodbath rather than fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, not only did the public vote the establishment out, they left on his doorstep the inheritance of 30 years of debt build-up and a fiscal policy that’s been really reckless in the extreme. People would like to think he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan and we are going to have morning in America. Unfortunately, I don’t think it looks that promising because Trump is inheriting a mess that pales into insignificance what we had to deal with in January of 1981 when I joined the Reagan White House as Budget Director.”

So, can the Trump bump in the stock market keep going? Stockman, who wrote a book titled “Trumped” predicting a Trump victory in 2016, says, “I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in the hot place that’s going to happen. This is delusional. This is the greatest suckers’ rally of all time. It is based on pure hopium and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a big tax cut. Donald Trump is in a trap. Today the debt is $20 trillion. It’s 106% of GDP. . . .Trump is inheriting a built-in deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in. Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less. He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals. He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement. He’s going to do more for the veterans. He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program. You put all that together and it’s madness. It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

Then, Stockman drops this bomb and says:

“I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017. That’s the day that this debt ceiling holiday that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015. That holiday expires. The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion. It will then be law. It will be a hard stop. The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash. We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate. By summer, they will be out of cash. Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises. Everything will grind to a halt. I think we will have a government shutdown. There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace. There will be no tax cut. There will be no infrastructure stimulus. There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.”

Further reading

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

As I am sure Trump will only trust certain sources, here is a February 28th piece regarding the Trump budget from Fox News:

Fox News said:
- Trump's initial budget wouldn't dent budget deficits projected to run about $500 billion.

- “The president will propose and the Congress will dispose,” Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., told Politico. “We’ll look at his budget, but at the end of the day we in Congress write the appropriations bills, and I am not one who thinks you can pay for an increase in (military) spending on the backs of domestic discretionary programs, which constitute 13 or 14 percent of all federal spending.”

- Trump's budget, once finalized and sent to Congress in mid-March, is sure to set off a huge Washington battle. Democrats and some Republicans are certain to resist the cuts to domestic agencies, and any legislation to implement them would have to overcome a filibuster threat by Senate Democrats. A government shutdown is a real possibility.

Source

Crucible · Mar 2, 2017

Where did Obama get his 7.5 trillion from :chuckle:

You liberals abandoned the concept of getting rid of the deficit, and went on a money burning spree. Why are you all so worried about Trump's budget?

I think you all ought to just can it. Discussing money with the Left is probably the biggest political joke that could exist right now

Nick M · Mar 2, 2017

WizardofOz said:
This thread is devoted to everything that has to do with the Trump budget. It is early in the planning stages but he has indicated that we wants to increase military spending by 10% ($54 billion), increase law enforcement budgets and increase infrastructure budgets.

He wants to make cuts at the EPA, foreign aid and non-defense federal agencies. Source

Sounds good. Spend tax dollars on what they exist for, which is wiping out jihadists and executing murderers.

jgarden · Mar 2, 2017

Crucible said:
Where did Obama get his 7.5 trillion from :chuckle:

You liberals abandoned the concept of getting rid of the deficit, and went on a money burning spree. Why are you all so worried about Trump's budget?

I think you all ought to just can it. Discussing money with the Left is probably the biggest political joke that could exist right now

GRAPH: % INCREASE IN SPENDING - BY PRESIDENT

Given the Trump Administration's predisposition to deal in "alternate facts, I suppose it would be too much to expect conservatives like "Crucible" to actually resort to fact-checking before "shooting-from-the-lip!"

Despite all their self-serving "small-government" rhetoric by conservatives, federal budgets under Republican presidents have increased at a far more than their Democratic counterparts.

GW Bush 46%

Reagan 19%

Ford 9%

Nixon 8%

Clinton 7%

Carter 6%

Obama 4%

GHW Bush 2%

https://mises.org/blog/if-you-want-bigger-government-vote-republican

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

Crucible said:
Where did Obama get his 7.5 trillion from :chuckle:

Try to stay on topic

Crucible said:
You liberals abandoned the concept of getting rid of the deficit, and went on a money burning spree. Why are you all so worried about Trump's budget?

I think you all ought to just can it. Discussing money with the Left is probably the biggest political joke that could exist right now

I never once voted for Obama.

You know what, you may be too stupid to participate in this thread. Perhaps you should refrain.

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

Nick M said:
Sounds good. Spend tax dollars on what they exist for, which is wiping out jihadists and executing murderers.

Or...North Korea?

Would that be worth spending tax dollars on?

aCultureWarrior · Mar 2, 2017

WizardofOz said:
This thread is devoted to everything that has to do with the Trump budget...

Being that Donald Trump's predecessor was the biggest tax and spend President in US history:

Moreover, before Obama there had never been a deficit anywhere near $1 trillion. The highest previously was $458 billion, or less than half a trillion, in 2008. The federal deficit for the last budget adopted by a Republican controlled Congress was $161 billion for fiscal year 2007. But the budget deficits for Obama’s four years were reported in Obama’s own 2013 budget as $1.413 trillion for 2009, $1.293 trillion for 2010, $1.3 trillion for 2011, and $1.327 trillion for 2012, four years in a row of deficits of $1.3 trillion or more, the highest in world history.

President Obama’s own 2013 budget shows that as a result federal debt held by the public will double during Obama’s four years as President. That means in just one term President Obama will have increased the national debt as much as all prior Presidents, from George Washington to George Bush, combined.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterf...ment-spender-in-world-history/2/#440fc9a43cb7

As long as Donald Trump doesn't exceed Obama's spending, he'll make himself look good (i.e. he can still be a big government spender and republicans will say "At least he doesn't spend as much as Obama did!").

Maybe Donald Trump should look to the Constitution before he starts writing checks?

http://constitution.laws.com/the-supreme-court/tax-and-spend-power

Crucible · Mar 2, 2017

jgarden said:
GRAPH: % INCREASE IN SPENDING - BY PRESIDENT

Given the Trump Administration's predisposition to deal in "alternate facts, I suppose it would be too much to expect conservatives like "Crucible" to actually resort to fact-checking before "shooting-from-the-lip!"

It is a fact that Obama spent 7.5 trillion dollars.

It is a fact, also, that you liberals are damn terrible at interpreting data.
Albeit, that's a terribly misleading graph. I bet a liberal made it :chuckle:

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

Here is a forecast of the budget deficit under Trump and compared to each year since 2000

surplus-or-deficit-of-the-us-governments-budget-since-2000.jpg

and by individual administrations since Clinton

WizardofOz · Mar 2, 2017

But this thread is about the Trump budget:

Here are some early forecasts:

and growth required to pay for his plans

jeffblue101 · Mar 2, 2017

here is Trump budget plan presented by Cruz

more info here

Today, well — you know. We face the largest budget deficit the nation has ever known: $1.6 trillion, the equivalent of about 11 percent of our economy. And, whatever Washington does, many economists say the situation will grow only worse, particularly as Americans age and Medicare costs spiral higher.

But there is, in theory, a happy solution to our debt troubles. It’s called economic growth. No need to raise taxes or cut programs. Just get the economy growing the way it used to.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/us/politics/us-budget-trump.html?_r=0

“I think the money is going to come from a revved-up economy,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with Fox News when asked how he would pay for his plans. “I mean, you look at the kind of numbers we’re doing — we were probably G.D.P. of a little more than 1 percent, and if I can get that up to 3 or maybe more, we have a whole different ballgame.”...

Mr. Trump’s budget outline has made some Republicans nervous because he appears to be keeping his campaign pledge not to touch Social Security or Medicare, the two biggest drivers of the national debt. Mr. Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, has been a fierce advocate for making cuts to the programs, but Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that it would not be necessary because his tax cuts and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act would unleash a torrent of growth.

“If the economy sails, then I’m right, because I said I’m not touching Social Security,” he said.

jgarden · Mar 2, 2017

Crucible said:
It is a fact that Obama spent 7.5 trillion dollars.

It is a fact, also, that you liberals are damn terrible at interpreting data.
Albeit, that's a terribly misleading graph. I bet a liberal made it :chuckle:

"Crucible" summarily dismisses my "terribly misleading graph" arguing that "liberals are damn terrible at interpreting data," and yet in true conservative form his contentions remain "fact challenged!"

In their "alternate world," conservatives don't feel compelled to provide proof based on reliable sources, because their narrative is not based on the facts.

Crucible · Mar 3, 2017

jgarden said:
"Crucible" summarily dismisses my "terribly misleading graph" arguing that "liberals are damn terrible at interpreting data," and yet in true conservative form his contentions remain "fact challenged!"

In their "alternate world," conservatives don't feel compelled to provide proof based on reliable sources, because their narrative is not based on the facts.

The graph shows a continual increase in percentage :chuckle:

Bush brought the debt to 5.8 trillion, and Obama another 7.5 trillion.

The little bump on the graph where Obama is just makes it look like he was any other President balancing the books.

Because your graph is purposefully misleading, no doubt made by a liberal just to make people see something different than reality :wave2:

WizardofOz · Mar 16, 2017

Trump's budget to slash foreign aid and green-energy funding

Spoiler

Should be one heck of a fight

kmoney · Mar 16, 2017

WizardofOz said:
Trump's budget to slash foreign aid and green-energy funding

Spoiler

President Trump plans to unveil a “skinny budget” outline today that calls for a major boost in spending on defense and border security, while slashing funds spent on foreign aid, environmental protection, public housing, arts and humanities and programs Trump feels are a poor use of taxpayer money.

Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget, described Trump’s budget priorities to reporters on Wednesday, with the White House scheduled to release more details Thursday morning.

“This is the America-first budget,” Mulvaney said. “We wrote it using the president’s own words.”

The “skinny budget” is typically sent to Congress by first-year presidents who haven’t had the time or staff to develop a full budget request, which the White House normally delivers to Congress by early February. Trump’s skinny budget outlines spending priorities for fiscal year 2018, which will start Oct. 1. Most provisions would have to be approved by Congress, with legislation involving cutbacks likely to be highly contentious. The White House should deliver a fuller budget request for FY2018 by May.

Trump has already said he wants to increase defense spending by $54 billion per year, funded by a like amount of cutbacks in other agencies, so there’s no net addition to the 2018 deficit, which is forecast to be nearly $500 billion. The additional defense spending would be a 10% hike for the Pentagon. Trump also wants to boost spending on border security by about 6% in 2018. In addition to requests for 2018, Trump also wants to ask for some additional funding in the current fiscal year, including $30 billion for defense and $1.5 billion to get started on the border wall Trump promised while campaigning.

[Related: Test Trump’s budget using our “aircraft-carrier index”]

The biggest cutbacks would come from the State Department, which administers most foreign aid doled out by the Untied States. The State Department budget, including the Agency for International Development, is about $50 billion per year. Trump wants to cut that by 28%, which would be roughly $14 billion. “This is a hard power budget,” Mulvaney told reporters. “It is not a soft power budget. This president wants to send the message to allies that this is a strong power administration.”

The Environmental Protection Agency is slated for a 25% cut in its $8 billion budget, or $2 billion. “You can expect reductions in parts of the EPA that don’t line up with the president’s views on things like global warming and alternative energies,” Mulvaney said.

Another agency slated for cuts that could reach into the billions is the Department of Housing and Urban Development, where Trump feels there are “wasteful and duplicative programs, and programs that don’t work,” according to Mulvaney.

Trump has indicated he might eliminate federal funding for arts and humanities, which his budget blueprint seems likely to follow through on. Mulvaney said Trump wants to end funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which helps fund public TV and radio stations and will receive about $450 million from Washington this year. It’s not yet clear whether Trump would kill funding for other cultural programs, such as the National Endowment for the Arts.

The Trump cuts would come entirely from the “discretionary” portion of the federal budget, which includes things Congress must fund on a year-to-year basis. That excludes so-called entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which pay out money to beneficiaries automatically, without the need for regular appropriations by Congress. Trump’s budget doesn’t touch any of those programs, although the Republican health-reform bill drawn up by House Speaker Paul Ryan—which Trump supports—would sharply cut Medicaid payments during the next decade.

The skinny budget excludes other big Trump priorities, such as tax reform and a plan to boost infrastructure spending. Those plans are coming later, although Mulvaney did say the skinny budget will include some cuts to infrastructure programs sprinkled throughout various agency budgets, “because we believe those programs to be less efficient than the package we’re working on for later this year.”

Key legislators, including some Republicans, have already shot down some of the spending cuts Trump is pushing. Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham said any plan to slash foreign aid would be “dead on arrival,” for instance, and even Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said such a bill probably wouldn’t pass. But boosting defense spending without corresponding cuts elsewhere would rouse Republican budget hawks who insist Trump’s budget must not add to the national debt. The skinny budget is likely to get a lashing by the time 2018 finally arrives

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...n-aid-and-green-energy-funding-040132503.html

Should be one heck of a fight

It sounds like Trump wants to cut everything except military and border funding.

lain:

jgarden · Mar 16, 2017

;4947845 said:
The graph shows a continual increase in percentage :chuckle:

Bush brought the debt to 5.8 trillion, and Obama another 7.5 trillion.

The little bump on the graph where Obama is just makes it look like he was any other President balancing the books.

Because your graph is purposefully misleading, no doubt made by a liberal just to make people see something different than reality :wave2:

In 2009, Obama inherited an economic "meltdown" despite the fact that Republicans had been in control of the White House, the Supreme Court and the House and Senate for substantial periods during the GWB Administration.

Fast forward 8 years and the Republicans have inherited a nation no longer mired in Afghanistan and Iraq War, lower levels of unemployment and the Dow reaching record levels.

Obviously "Crucible" has based his tirade on "alternate facts," because in this world, the "real facts" indicate that the Democrats have been much better custodians of the economy - including remedying disasters not of their own making!

patrick jane · Mar 16, 2017

jgarden said:
"real facts" indicate that the Democrats have been much better custodians of the economy - including remedying disasters not of their own making!

Real facts are, that the demoncrats doubled the debt from 10 to 20 trillion, left the Middle East in chaos and left us with failing Obamacare. Obama is a crook

patrick jane · Mar 16, 2017

kmoney said:
It sounds like Trump wants to cut everything except military and border funding. lain:

:thumb:

jgarden · Mar 16, 2017

patrick jane said:
Real facts are, that the demoncrats doubled the debt from 10 to 20 trillion, left the Middle East in chaos and left us with failing Obamacare. Obama is a crook

It must have slipped "patrick jane's" memory that Obama inherited the greatest economic depression since 1929," much far more chaos in the Middle East and over 50 million without medical insurance.

Trump would have us believe that all of America's problems can be solved by the military, a wall and abandoning millions of vulnerable citizens back to the "tender mercies" of the private sector!

The Trump Budget

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