NFL 2016

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Town Heretic

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Hall of Fame
I think NE's defense is the best one still left in the tournament, after KC, Seattle and Houston fell.
They were what, 3rd against the run and 12th against the pass going into the playoffs. But they were 1st in terms of defending the red zone, so I'm guessing that a lot of teams that managed to get close were stopped trying to run it in. Meaning that if you want to beat them you have to score less conventionally in that respect.

I think they're the best team standing, on balance, but their vulnerability through the air, relatively speaking, could allow either Atlanta or Green Bay a punchers chance against them. Absent pressure, neither team is going to have much luck stopping Brady. Both defenses are bottom tier against the pass, though Green Bay has a good run defense.

I suppose I shouldn't be overlooking the Steelers, but it's hard for me to see them finding a way to win against the Pats. They seem like a similar, but lesser version of the New England.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
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I suppose I shouldn't be overlooking the Steelers, but it's hard for me to see them finding a way to win against the Pats.

First a few stats:

Ben Roethlisberger
Playoff record: 13-6
Home playoff record: 6-3
Road playoff record: 5-2
Non-wild card playoff record: 10-3

Tom Brady
Playoff record: 23-9
Home playoff record: 16-3
Road playoff record: 3-4
Non-wild card playoff record: 21-8

* Super Bowl wins and loses are not counted in the home and away stats, but are in the "non-wild card playoff record".

As we see above, Brady is very good at home. BUT, Roethlisberger has a pretty good away record, and his non-wild card winning percentage is actually better than Brady's despite Brady having so many home playoff games.

So, something has to give.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
As of today:

QB's with most postseason wins:

23 - Brady
16 - Montana
14 - Bradshaw, Elway, and Peyton Manning
13 - Roethlisberger & Favre

After this weeks AFC Championship Game, Roethlisberger will join some elite company, or Brady will separate himself even further from the rest of the field.
 

Nihilo

BANNED
Banned
The last AFC Championship game hosted by NE was their 2014 championship season.

Before that, Baltimore came to town, Flacco played great and Brady laid an egg. Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to play great (entirely possible) and for Brady to lay another egg. Brady threw two picks in 12 games this regular season, but threw two last week, though they were both tips.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Before that, Baltimore came to town, Flacco played great and Brady laid an egg.

A year before that, the Patriots barely beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. A dropped pass in the end zone, and then a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation gave the game to the Patriots.

So, the Patriots aren't invincible at Foxborough.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
OK Sports Fans:

At Atlanta -5
Green Bay

I pick Green Bay in this game and take the points. If Rodgers stays as hot as he has been lately no one will beat the Packers. It all depends on Rodgers.

At New England -6
Pittsburgh

New England didn't impress me much in the Houston game and I believe that the Steelers have the talent to stay with the Patriots so I will take Pittsburgh and the points (I have an awful feeling deep down in my gut that the Steelers will actually win this game).
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
The Packers were 4-6 at one point in the season.

In the history of the NFL, no team with a 4-6 record (or worse) after 10 games has ever made it to the Super Bowl, or NFL Championship Game.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
OK Sports Fans:

At Atlanta -5
Green Bay

I pick Green Bay in this game and take the points. If Rodgers stays as hot as he has been lately no one will beat the Packers. It all depends on Rodgers.
Should be a shoot out, but I like the balance on the other side of it and the Ice Man already got the writer's MVP. That wasn't by accident.

At New England -6
Pittsburgh

New England didn't impress me much in the Houston game and I believe that the Steelers have the talent to stay with the Patriots so I will take Pittsburgh and the points (I have an awful feeling deep down in my gut that the Steelers will actually win this game).
It's possible, but I don't think it's likely. No one was going to impress against Houston's passing defense (see: my not to Nihilo below).

I like both lines.

GB 31
Atl 37

Pit 19
NE 27

Brady threw two picks in 12 games this regular season, but threw two last week, though they were both tips.
Not surprising given Houston's pass defense was only outdone by Denver. Pittsburgh is 16th.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
You dog! You just ruined my day.
Don't despair. :chuckle: Hey, I missed one of the earlier playoff games. At this level everyone is playing out of their heads... Maybe I'm wrong. It happens all the time.

But what if I'm wrong about being wrong? :noid:

Did anyone else read about the Steelers flu epidemic?
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Can I get my t-shirt that says I won a playoff game without a touchdown yet? That won't work against the cheaters.
 

tetelestai

LIFETIME MEMBER
LIFETIME MEMBER
Yes, and their most valuable player has the flu, kicker Chris Boswell. The Steelers will be out of luck if they need an onside kick because he is the best in the business when it comes to that skill, as witnessed by what you see here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/steelers-kicker-botched-onside-kick-2016-11

If you knew anything about football, you would know that Boswell did the same kick in college, and it worked.


BTW Jerry, what are your Cowboys doing this weekend?
 
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