NFL 2015

Town Heretic · May 14, 2015

Granite said:
Not an indictment on Brady; if anything it makes clear that he's a perfectionist and already had the footballs right where he wanted them. There's no reason to fiddle with them any further.

Come on, Granite...the bit you quoted is predicated on the assumption that Brady's approval wasn't subject to an understanding that they were at the rule and that further action would be taken beyond that point. The charge was that it's exactly what happened and the later, lower PSI appears to support it.

You should read the rest of the rebuttal.

I plan to at some point. I've heard there's a great deal of it. Some of what I've already heard from ESPN is pure lawyer tactics, like trying to note "deflator" can be used to speak about weight loss.

lain:

One thing Brady isn't going to get around no matter how skilled his attorneys are is the refusal on his part to part with his part of relevant emails/messages contained on his phone. Not his phone, not access to his phone even, but a request for his lawyer to provide transcripts of those relevant texts.

There's literally no honest reason to say no. It's a contextual aid that could have, were he innocent, provided assistance on the point.

Pure conjecture.

Sure. Most of circumstantial evidence requires context and analysis. The only real question is: is the conjecture reasonable and does it fit the evidence.

And what it amounts to is assuming a hyper-competitive perfectionist will

In the right environment look for any advantage and maybe go a step too far. It happens.

leave the pigskin in the hands of Thing 1 and Thing 2

Expect two guys in a position to do what he wants to do what he wants. Letting a little air out of a ball isn't on par with taking a physics exam and one of the gentlemen has been at his job for twenty years.

in the hopes they maybe, probably get it right.

I'm pretty sure, from what we've seen in their texts, that he'd let them know when they muffed it.

Sorry, but that doesn't add up.

That's what people said about Nixon.

I think Brady's team is going to rip the Wells report to shreds.

I think smart lawyers will get some of it reduced, but he's still getting hit. The only question is how hard.

Granite · May 14, 2015

Come on, Granite...the bit you quoted is predicated on the assumption that Brady's approval wasn't subject to an understanding that they were at the rule and that further action would be taken beyond that point. The charge was that it's exactly what happened and the later, lower PSI appears to support it.

Read the rebuttal.

One thing Brady isn't going to get around no matter how skilled his attorneys are is the refusal on his part to part with his part of relevant emails/messages contained on his phone. Not his phone, not access to his phone even, but a request for his lawyer to provide transcripts of those relevant texts.

They may not have been convinced transcripts alone would've mollified Wells. They may have believed the whole thing was a witch hunt. There may have been stuff in there that while innocuous could've been taken out of context and might have damaged his public image and brand--who the heck knows.

In the right environment look for any advantage and maybe go a step too far.

Or he just excelled at his job. I understand how galling that idea is to a lot of people and frankly the disbelief at this concept around the country's getting border line amusing. It used to be only annoying.

Expect two guys in a position to do what he wants to do what he wants. Letting a little air out of a ball isn't on par with taking a physics exam and one of the gentlemen has been at his job for twenty years.

It would still be unpredictable. I don't see Brady leaving anything to chance if he can help it.

That's what people said about Nixon.

Oh give me a break with the Nixon bunk, all right? Besides, I thought Belichick was supposed to be Nixon.

chrysostom · May 14, 2015

Town Heretic said:
One thing Brady isn't going to get around no matter how skilled his attorneys are is the refusal on his part to part with his part of relevant emails/messages contained on his phone.

so here is a lawyer saying you can't get around this
and
I am sure his lawyer is saying he can

so much for lawyers

Town Heretic · May 14, 2015

chrysostom said:
so here is a lawyer saying you can't get around this

Right. He had the opportunity to turn over relevant text without turning over his phone. That's a prima facie lack of cooperation with the NFL investigation and it's part of the suspension.

and
I am sure his lawyer is saying he can

You may be sure the moon is a balloon, but it's just you making noises until you produce objective proof. So far, his legal team is concentrating on the offense. If they negate that then I imagine their hope is the whole thing goes away.

so much for lawyers

No, so much for bitter old guys with little argument and too much time on their hands. Go nurse your grudge on that monologue/dialogue thread why don't you?

Town Heretic · May 14, 2015

Granite said:
Read the rebuttal.

I will at some point, again. I've seen parts of it already. It's supposed to be rather voluminous.

They may not have been convinced transcripts alone would've mollified Wells.

So what if it didn't? He'd still have cooperated fully and there's no reason not to turn over the material if you're innocent, nothing but down side else.

They may have believed the whole thing was a witch hunt.

Again, doesn't matter. You want to look reasonable even and especially if you think the other side of it isn't being. That's lawyer 101. You're setting up the potential or eventual appeal. Always keep a record, look to mitigate, that sort of thing. There's only one reason a lawyer says no and it isn't one that favors Brady.

Now if we get into an actual court at some point we'll get a look at that phone regardless. Something else his lawyer would and should know.

There may have been stuff in there that while innocuous could've been taken out of context and might have damaged his public image and brand--who the heck knows.

His own lawyer was given carte blanch to lift the material. No one wanted anything else. And it would have actually added context in relation to the other texting/email parties.

Or he just excelled at his job.

I was responding to your characterization and where that can as easily lead. I'm not enjoying the process Brady is going through and I'm not after his skin. Nor would I say this impacts any reasonable impression of his skill at the position. In fact, the needlessness of this is the tragedy, to my mind.

I understand how galling that idea is to a lot of people and frankly the disbelief at this concept around the country's getting border line amusing. It used to be only annoying.

I imagine there are a lot of people who just don't like him or the team for any number of reasons, some petty and some legitimate.

It would still be unpredictable. I don't see Brady leaving anything to chance if he can help it.

Well, not really. Worse case scenario you get a ball that's easier to handle by degrees (or, more to my way of thinking, you get one you believe is...I think the advantage for him is literally all in his mind, which is why his numbers are great in that second half).

Oh give me a break with the Nixon bunk, all right? Besides, I thought Belichick was supposed to be Nixon.

Nixon is appropriate for application to anyone skilled at a thing taking a pointless risk with no real upside outside of their perception. Sometimes driven, great people are their own worst enemies. It happens.

As for Bill, I think he's the defensive/adjustment answer to Bill Walsh. That's why when Brady went down they won ten games. You put Tom, or Peyton, or Rodgers under center for him and any of them would be sporting rings.

Granite · May 15, 2015

I will at some point, again. I've seen parts of it already. It's supposed to be rather voluminous.

20,000 words or something like that.

So what if it didn't? He'd still have cooperated fully and there's no reason not to turn over the material if you're innocent, nothing but down side else.

...until, with that door open, Wells demanded the actual phone. I can see that being a concern. Then when Brady refuses how's it look? Optics, man: "So Brady let him see the texts but when Wells asked for the phone he refused? Tommy's hiding something!" I see this as a lose-lose situation: Run the risk of a potentially hostile investigator taking texts out of context, or, leave the door ajar to him saying "Nope, the texts ain't good enough, the phone or nothing."

Always keep a record, look to mitigate, that sort of thing. There's only one reason a lawyer says no and it isn't one that favors Brady.

See above. Also it's possible (if unlikely) that he simply got real bad advice.

His own lawyer was given carte blanch to lift the material. No one wanted anything else. And it would have actually added context in relation to the other texting/email parties.

As a certain flick taught me, something can be true but not accurate.

I imagine there are a lot of people who just don't like him or the team for any number of reasons, some petty and some legitimate.

No doubt.

Well, not really. Worse case scenario you get a ball that's easier to handle by degrees (or, more to my way of thinking, you get one you believe is...I think the advantage for him is literally all in his mind, which is why his numbers are great in that second half).

It's almost certainly a placebo effect. Also the rebuttal addresses this issue: Brady didn't want the footballs too soft since at a certain point they fail to perform as needed.

"No evidence exists that Mr. Brady wanted footballs below 12.5 psi -- and the investigators were told quite clearly that footballs that are too soft do not roll off his hands as desired. Nonetheless, they assumed Mr. Brady actually wanted footballs to be below 12.5, that Mr. Jastremski and Mr. McNally knew that, and that they went through an elaborate plan all designed to remove about .5 psi beyond what weather would do naturally."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000492679/article/patriots-issue-response-to-ted-wells-report

There's a level of precision he expects--from himself, his teammates, coaches, and equipment--that makes it very unlikely he'd roll dice when it comes to the actual footballs he's using.

Town Heretic · May 15, 2015

Granite said:
20,000 words or something like that.

...until, with that door open, Wells demanded the actual phone. I can see that being a concern. Then when Brady refuses how's it look?

Like he acquiesced to the reasonable and balked at an attempt to change the request. A win for him and a loss for them.

Optics, man: "So Brady let him see the texts but when Wells asked for the phone he refused? Tommy's hiding something!"

Or, when they asked for related texts we gave it to them. When they wanted to go fishing into his personal and unrelated life we said no.

I see this as a lose-lose situation:

Nope. It's a win/win. People would see the effort and see the secondary effort transform the first into a ruse. No one want's their computer hard drive available without restriction, but most people see the balk over directly related text material, especially given the degree of control by Brady's lawyer, as a suspicious dodge.

Run the risk of a potentially hostile investigator taking texts out of context, or, leave the door ajar to him saying "Nope, the texts ain't good enough, the phone or nothing."

Rather, the one sided conversations have given a very negative context that his side could correct. And if they don't...reason to not want to divulge them, but if this goes to court it's coming out.

See above. Also it's possible (if unlikely) that he simply got real bad advice.

It would be staggeringly bad advice to come from an accomplished attorney.

As a certain flick taught me, something can be true but not accurate.

Yep. And appearances can be deceiving. When people started making a great deal out of Brady meeting the guys in the qb room my first reaction wasn't that it signaled guilt, but could be as likely explained as a, "Did you guys cross the line?" meeting. If he'd done the "I pushed them to the line and take responsibility for the crossing" I think public sympathy would be very different and his penalty would have been a game and a fine. The extra games and slap at the team are directly related to the team being less cooperative. So it isn't just Tom making a few bad calls here. Ah, well. Ultimately, if after the expenditure of a great deal more money over "principle" on both sides I think it comes back to a greatly reduced fine, repeal of the first round draft loss and two games, mostly over the resisting bit.

It's almost certainly a placebo effect. Also the rebuttal addresses this issue: Brady didn't want the footballs too soft since at a certain point they fail to perform as needed.

I'm sure that's true. But I'd bet the guys would have a good handle on that over time and with a little testing. I don't think we're talking about much of a threshold.

"No evidence exists that Mr. Brady wanted footballs below 12.5 psi -- and the investigators were told quite clearly that footballs that are too soft do not roll off his hands as desired. Nonetheless, they assumed Mr. Brady actually wanted footballs to be below 12.5, that Mr. Jastremski and Mr. McNally knew that, and that they went through an elaborate plan all designed to remove about .5 psi beyond what weather would do naturally.

Brady likes them soft. That's all we know. It doesn't take an elaborate plan, just a needle and a few seconds per ball. The rest...:idunno: The appearance of impropriety is hard to miss and its in the hands of employees/agents of the Pats, with the benefit going to an agent with a stated propensity for preferring lower PSI.

It's hard to imagine that working out without some penalty, though the degree seems bizarrely out of proportion to the "crime". I mean, it's a twenty something thousand penalty and that's generating millions of dollars in associated penalty? Really?

lain:

Town Heretic · May 15, 2015

Good news for Pats fans in this? Though recent polls have most Americans siding with the NFL on the suspension (63% in general and 73% of self described avid fans) when the topic turns to whether the controversies surrounding the team and him in this particular should impact his HOF consideration the pro side shifts to a 2-1 advantage for Brady.

Which means most people are saying, "Sure, he tried to get over, but he's still one of the best to play the game" and I believe the polling data supports the general notion that most athlete's cheat the system to one degree or another. We expect it even as we still feel that when they're caught they have to pay a penalty.

I suppose that fans are mostly looking at it the way those of us who push the legal speed limit view tickets.

Granite · May 15, 2015

Like he acquiesced to the reasonable and balked at an attempt to change the request. A win for him and a loss for them.

One way or another some folks will remain convinced he had/has something to hide.

Or, when they asked for related texts we gave it to them. When they wanted to go fishing into his personal and unrelated life we said no.

See above. Even when you have good reason to stonewall it's not necessarily a good look.

Nope. It's a win/win. People would see the effort and see the secondary effort transform the first into a ruse. No one want's their computer hard drive available without restriction, but most people see the balk over directly related text material, especially given the degree of control by Brady's lawyer, as a suspicious dodge.

Again, context--it'd be incredibly easy to twist an innocent conversation into something dastardly. The man does have an image to maintain. I could see him being sensitive to, say, releasing locker room talk to the world. Might be a little jarring and tarnish the brand. Who knows.

Yep. And appearances can be deceiving. When people started making a great deal out of Brady meeting the guys in the qb room my first reaction wasn't that it signaled guilt, but could be as likely explained as a, "Did you guys cross the line?" meeting. If he'd done the "I pushed them to the line and take responsibility for the crossing" I think public sympathy would be very different and his penalty would have been a game and a fine.

Agreed, I didn't see anything sinister about it either. I can't see him falling on the sword for two equipment guys but nothing's completely impossible. Highly doubt it though.

The extra games and slap at the team are directly related to the team being less cooperative. So it isn't just Tom making a few bad calls here. Ah, well. Ultimately, if after the expenditure of a great deal more money over "principle" on both sides I think it comes back to a greatly reduced fine, repeal of the first round draft loss and two games, mostly over the resisting bit.

At this point I think it's no suspension or war. The franchise and #12 are infuriated. They wanted opening night. They wanted the banner. They keep doubling down.

I'm sure that's true. But I'd bet the guys would have a good handle on that over time and with a little testing. I don't think we're talking about much of a threshold.

If it's a placebo effect that's possible. But isn't it likely if (IF) this has been going on for a while that there'd be at least one game where some footballs were underinflated, enough so to make a significant impact on a game? Can't remember the last time I saw him throwing ducks or wobblers. (Ever, really.) The odds are sooner or later these guys would screw up and give him dud footballs. Statistically, this may be difficult if not impossible to prove...but they could not possibly have gotten it right every single time.

Brady likes them soft. That's all we know. It doesn't take an elaborate plan, just a needle and a few seconds per ball.

Like the needles the Colts have been known to keep up their sleeves. Check that out.

It's hard to imagine that working out without some penalty, though the degree seems bizarrely out of proportion to the "crime". I mean, it's a twenty something thousand penalty and that's generating millions of dollars in associated penalty? Really?

Absolutely ridiculous.

Town Heretic · May 15, 2015

Granite said:
One way or another some folks will remain convinced he had/has something to hide.

Nothing you can do about them, but you can influence the ones who either want to believe but aren't sure or don't know...mostly I was thinking about the literal court and judge this could end up before.

Again, context--it'd be incredibly easy to twist an innocent conversation into something dastardly.

Well, without it you only have a context that makes him look like he was a party to it, so there's no down side really.

The man does have an image to maintain. I could see him being sensitive to, say, releasing locker room talk to the world. Might be a little jarring and tarnish the brand. Who knows.

He's already been publicly noted for using foul language on the field. I don't think that's an issue, but looking like you're hiding something...especially given the restrictions allowed by the asking party, that's more problematic from both a PR and legal perspective.

Agreed, I didn't see anything sinister about it either.

As easy to see one as the other, outside of other considerations that might move someone toward the negative, like stonewalling.

I can't see him falling on the sword for two equipment guys but nothing's completely impossible. Highly doubt it though.

I think it would have been the public relations dream response and given anyone interested in being fair, to say nothing of those who wanted to believe him, a real arrow in that quiver.

At this point I think it's no suspension or war.

Depends on what's on that phone. If he negotiates it down but not out we'll know.

The franchise and #12 are infuriated. They wanted opening night. They wanted the banner. They keep doubling down.

Yeah. No matter what happens the NFL has gotten a pound of flesh from the Pats. That's a penalty you can't take back.

I wonder if the relationship between commissioner and ownership can be salvaged...maybe that depends on what he decides on the appeal. Maybe not.

If it's a placebo effect that's possible. But isn't it likely if (IF) this has been going on for a while that there'd be at least one game where some footballs were underinflated, enough so to make a significant impact on a game?

For Brady I don't think so. For his running backs, there's a real argument when you look at the data, unless you believe the Pats have found a magic formula that suddenly made them hold onto the balls significantly, even historically better than the rest of the league. :idunno: Seems like come playoff time, when games are often close and the play is elevated that could be a real boon.

Can't remember the last time I saw him throwing ducks or wobblers. (Ever, really.) The odds are sooner or later these guys would screw up and give him dud footballs. Statistically, this may be difficult if not impossible to prove...but they could not possibly have gotten it right every single time.

He's had bad game. He's had horrible playoff games. Maybe that was the odds catching up or maybe just one of those days. I don't think it's really inevitable that releasing a little more air should do that because I think it's mostly in his head anyway. And if you released too much someone would notice.

Like the needles the Colts have been known to keep up their sleeves. Check that out.

One of the interesting things from all of this has been in the polling. Most Americans expect cheating or attempts to do that is systemic. I really think people approach it like a speeding ticket, unless the cheating is more along the lines of Spygate or Bountygate. That gets people mad in a way stickum or deflating balls just won't.

Absolutely ridiculous.

Worst waste of money since they tried to impeach Clinton. And who knows if they'll be much more to this one by the end of it.

Town Heretic · May 20, 2015

It appears that Kraft has lost faith, though he isn't going to say it. His statement in determining to not resist the NFL sanctions against his team is telling, as is the particular wording.

Said Kraft, "Although I might disagree with what was decided, I do have respect for the commissioner, and believe he’s doing what he perceives is in the best interest of the full 32. In that spirit, I don’t want to continue the rhetoric that has gone on for the last four months. I’m going to accept, reluctantly, what he has given to us. And not continue this dialogue and rhetoric. We won’t appeal."

Although I might disagree? Not a ringing endorsement of blamelessness. I'd have expected more along, "While I maintain my disagreement with the conclusions of the Wells report and the subsequent league penalties formed from its conclusions..."

Curious.

Eeset · May 20, 2015

Crazy season. Brady bunch had the superbowl gifted to them on the final play.

Granite · May 20, 2015

Eeset said:
Crazy season. Brady bunch had the superbowl gifted to them on the final play.

I still can't believe they didn't run Beast Mode one more time. I understand the explanation Carroll gave but still seems pretty weak to me.

Granite · May 20, 2015

Town Heretic said:
It appears that Kraft has lost faith, though he isn't going to say it. His statement in determining to not resist the NFL sanctions against his team is telling, as is the particular wording.

Said Kraft, "Although I might disagree with what was decided, I do have respect for the commissioner, and believe he’s doing what he perceives is in the best interest of the full 32. In that spirit, I don’t want to continue the rhetoric that has gone on for the last four months. I’m going to accept, reluctantly, what he has given to us. And not continue this dialogue and rhetoric. We won’t appeal."

Although I might disagree? Not a ringing endorsement of blamelessness. I'd have expected more along, "While I maintain my disagreement with the conclusions of the Wells report and the subsequent league penalties formed from its conclusions..."

Curious.

Eh, I dunno. He did say this as well:

"So, I think I made it clear when the report came out that I didn’t think it was fair – there was no hard evidence and everything was circumstantial – and at the same time, when the discipline came out, I felt it was way over the top, as it was unreasonable and unprecedented in my opinion."

We can read the tea leaves all we want but he said several times he didn't want to continue the rhetoric and I suspect he didn't want to throw more fuel on the fire.

Town Heretic · May 20, 2015

Granite said:
Eh, I dunno. He did say this as well:

"So, I think I made it clear when the report came out that I didn’t think it was fair – there was no hard evidence and everything was circumstantial – and at the same time, when the discipline came out, I felt it was way over the top, as it was unreasonable and unprecedented in my opinion."

Sure, but look at the difference. That's really not much more than saying, "This is what I have said". Everything is past tense. In the present he "might disagree". I don't think that sort of qualified support is an accident. I think Bob has doubts.

Granite · May 20, 2015

Town Heretic said:
Sure, but look at the difference. That's really not much more than saying, "This is what I have said". Everything is past tense. In the present he "might disagree". I don't think that sort of qualified support is an accident. I think Bob has doubts.

I think he realizes the team has to take its medicine but his quarterback might have his penalty rescinded. Wouldn't surprise me if that's the handshake deal. The Pats still get punished. And then Goodell hears Brady's appeal and looks reasonable by making sure the reigning Super Bowl MVP is there for opening night given the absence of a true smoking gun. Not a perfect compromise considering the white-hot hatred out there for New England but I think it's in everyone's interests for this entire idiotic mess to finally go away.

Town Heretic · May 20, 2015

Granite said:
I think he realizes the team has to take its medicine but his quarterback might have his penalty rescinded. Wouldn't surprise me if that's the handshake deal. The Pats still get punished. And then Goodell hears Brady's appeal and looks reasonable by making sure the reigning Super Bowl MVP is there for opening night given the absence of a true smoking gun. Not a perfect compromise considering the white-hot hatred out there for New England but I think it's in everyone's interests for this entire idiotic mess to finally go away.

I think he gets a reduction, but the obstruction is going to get him two. Unless the commissioner cites the actions of Kraft and is satisfied, but I don't know that I'd count on more than getting the two (which but for bad advice never should have been a part of this).

Then maybe we can get back to being excited about the new season. Has there been a worse season for the NFL than the last one? I can't recall it.

Granite · May 20, 2015

I think he gets a reduction, but the obstruction is going to get him two. Unless the commissioner cites the actions of Kraft and is satisfied, but I don't know that I'd count on more than getting the two (which but for bad advice never should have been a part of this).

"Tom and I had a man-to-man, he explained his reasons, blah-blah-blah, I'm satisfied, no suspensions, moving on." I could see something like that. Goodell isn't exactly going to placate Patriot haters but nothing (short of burning Gillette to the ground and dissolving the franchise) ever would.

Then maybe we can get back to being excited about the new season. Has there been a worse season for the NFL than the last one? I can't recall it.

Suspensions, domestic violence--very grotesque.

Had a swell finish though.:Shimei:

Town Heretic · May 20, 2015

Granite said:
"Tom and I had a man-to-man, he explained his reasons, blah-blah-blah, I'm satisfied, no suspensions, moving on." I could see something like that. Goodell isn't exactly going to placate Patriot haters but nothing (short of burning Gillette to the ground and dissolving the franchise) ever would.

Don't see how he could do that, so I'll stick with the two for obstructing.

Suspensions, domestic violence--very grotesque.

Only good that came out of that was the NFL having to begin to deal with character issues not related to on the field performance as seriously as they have, say, steroids.

Had a swell finish though.:Shimei:

Great game, unfortunate ending. That is to say I wish they'd given it to the Beast and the Pats had done an Alabama at the goal line stand. People crying about the call, which was awful, forget that New England had done a pretty good job, on the whole of limiting Lynch. Not a lot up the middle, not many big plays running out of the backfield. The biggest play was the pass he took nearly forty yards late. Can't use that in a goal line.

Granite · May 20, 2015

Don't see how he could do that, so I'll stick with the two for obstructing.

Given the overall wackiness of this situation absolutely nothing would surprise me.

Only good that came out of that was the NFL having to begin to deal with character issues not related to on the field performance as seriously as they have, say, steroids.

Next up: Head injuries!

Great game, unfortunate ending.

Well that all depends.:chuckle:

That is to say I wish they'd given it to the Beast and the Pats had done an Alabama at the goal line stand.

I really don't think they'd have been able to stop him two more times.

People crying about the call, which was awful, forget that New England had done a pretty good job, on the whole of limiting Lynch.

Absolutely. And if not for yet another freakish last second catch they wouldn't have been in that position in the first place.

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