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Thread: The 2019 NFL Season is Finally Here!

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    Out of Order Town Heretic's Avatar
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    Top 10 teams after week one:

    1. New England: Unless the next few weeks prove the Steelers have fallen over the edge, this was the best match of the week and the Pats made it look embarrassingly easy...and next week they add AB to the mix. The Pats defense was rock solid. Big Ben struggled against coverage, with a sub 60% completion, no tds, and one int. On offense, Brady was distributing the ball to his wrs so evenly there was no one to key on. And their running back by committee put up a hundred yards.

    2. Kansas City: I know their defense is still suspect, but they toyed with a Jacksonville defense that has been fairly potent over the past few years. Mahomes is officially the boogeyman of the NFL. And while everyone in the media appears ready to crown New England, I'm not sure AB will be enough if the Chiefs improve at all defensively.

    3. New Orleans: Houston is a very good team, except on the offensive line, which has to be fixed if they don't want an Andrew Luck Jr. on their hands in a couple of years. The Saints looked good at every facet of the game and should be right there with the top five teams in contention for the NFC crown at year's end. This was the game the Pats/Steelers game was supposed to be.

    4. Dallas: Did everything they wanted to against a hapless Giants. A perfect performance by Dak with Dallas not even pretending to be serious about the run (and still putting up nearly a hundred yards of rushing).

    5. Baltimore: The defense looked as good as we're accustomed to seeing out of Baltimore, but I'm more skeptical of the offense. I know, I know, Jackson had a flawless performance, but against what? Griffin III came in late and went 6/6, 55 yds and a td. So I think Miami's...let's call it defense for want of a more accurate term, had as much to do with it as Jackson, who largely threw to open targets (with a couple of impressive exceptions). Otherwise, I'd have them higher. As it is, I feel nervous about them being this high.

    6. Philly: Keenum was actually good, but Wentz was better, and the genius notion the Washington brain trust had of sitting Adrian Peterson, last years surprising bright spot and team voted offensive MVP, so they could have another special team player...and to show ownership and the world that Guice was the guy, well, he's injured, again, and without AP they managed 28 yards on 30 carries while Philly ran for 123 on top of Wentz's 300+ through the air. Only the fact that it took them to the 2nd half to wake up has me settling the Eagles here, temporarily.

    7. Rams: Goff had a bad day and the Rams still put away a talented Panther squad. One suffering, thankfully for LA, with the same qb malady. McCaffrey continued to make a strong case that he's the best all around back in the league, rushing for 128 yds on only 19 carries (over 6 yds a carry) and 2 td, while adding 81 yds through the air, but he was outgained by an assortment approach by LA.

    8. Minnesota: Terrific showing at home, as usual, but the offense was uninspired and one dimensional, with Cousins contributing fewer than a hundred yards. Great defensive ground play by the Vikings and an anemic Falcon rushing attack had Ryan pushing plays right into the teeth of the Vikings secondary. But that Viking offense won't travel, and Atlanta continues to look a lot like the NFC version of Cleveland, only they've been together...so they're here for now.

    9. Tennessee: They've taken over the old Fins role of being that team that is solid enough to make you think, "That looks like it could shape up into a decent post season team," but never quite does. Mariota had flashes and found the end zone 3 times, but he wasn't particularly accurate on the day. Henry was the production star, rushing for 84 yds and a td, and adding another 75 and a td by reception. They gave up over 300 yds passing, and about 100 yds on the ground, but were a lot stingier with the endzone, picking Mayfield 3 times.

    10. Chargers/Indy: Take your pick. Each won a half. LAC scored in overtime. That's it...I can't help thinking that if Luck had been there and healthy this list would shift a bit.

    Hon. Men.: Green Bay. Rodgers wasn't happy without reason.
    Last edited by Town Heretic; September 11th, 2019 at 11:06 AM.
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    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I like your Cowboys against the Giants, but not by 7.5 if that's still the line.
    Once again you underestimate the greatness which belongs to Dak Prescott! Did he have the perfect quarterback rating or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I like the Pats to win, but fail to cover the six against visiting Pittsburgh.
    What did you ever see in the Steelers? I called it earlier this year when I said that they were finished. But you thought that somehow they could keep the game close. And it was close for about two minutes!


    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    And I like a shoot-out cover and exciting game by the Saints over visiting Houston.
    I don't believe that the Saints covered the spread, did they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I'll take Atl in the upset over 3.5 fav Minnesota in Minnesota.
    You have lost more bets in one week than you normally did in a whole season! What's up?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Once again you underestimate the greatness which belongs to Dak Prescott! Did he have the perfect quarterback rating or what?
    He was terrific. Really put the screws to Jerry with that performance. And I don't underestimate Dak. He's an excellent qb. To be fair, I didn't do the math on that week. No time. I'm not sure I'll get to it this week either. Busy with a bathroom remodeling that turned into a reflooring and some beam replacement (the joy of old Southern homes).

    What did you ever see in the Steelers?
    A well coached team with a qb coming off a great season. But they can be like the Saints on the road. You're never entirely sure what's coming for you.

    I called it earlier this year when I said that they were finished. But you thought that somehow they could keep the game close. And it was close for about two minutes!
    I don't know that you're right and one game isn't necessarily going to tell you the story (see: Fitzmagic).


    I don't believe that the Saints covered the spread, did they?
    No. The spread was 6.5 and the actual was 2. Luckily for me I forgot to change that one and got credit for it. I typically go in early and take all the favorites by money (not line). That is, I look to see if most people think it's going with or against and go along. That tends to follow the line, but not entirely. Then I come back after I run the numbers. If I'd left that in place I think I would have won 12 games, but it could as easily have gone the other way.

    You have lost more bets in one week than you normally did in a whole season! What's up?
    Throwing darts last week. I didn't have time to do the numbers. I still haven't. It may be the week after this one before I have the time to settle in, supra.
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    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Thursday Night's game:

    At Carolina -6.5
    Tampa Bay

    Can Tampa Bay keep in check the Wonder Boy, Christian McCaffrey? I doubt it so I will take the Panthers and give the points!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Thursday Night's game:

    At Carolina -6.5
    Tampa Bay

    Can Tampa Bay keep in check the Wonder Boy, Christian McCaffrey? I doubt it so I will take the Panthers and give the points!
    Again, without math, this one looks like a safe bet. I'd take Carolina. TB looked anemic at home against the Niners and could barely muster 17 while giving up over 30. No reason to believe they'll be much better against the Panthers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Top 10 teams after week one:

    1. New England: Unless the next few weeks prove the Steelers have fallen over the edge, this was the best match of the week and the Pats made it look embarrassingly easy...and next week they add AB to the mix. The Pats defense was rock solid. Big Ben struggled against coverage, with a sub 60% completion, no tds, and one int. On offense, Brady was distributing the ball to his wrs so evenly there was no one to key on. And their running back by committee put up a hundred yards.

    2. Kansas City: I know their defense is still suspect, but they toyed with a Jacksonville defense that has been fairly potent over the past few years. Mahomes is officially the boogeyman of the NFL. And while everyone in the media appears ready to crown New England, I'm not sure AB will be enough if the Chiefs improve at all defensively.
    KC won't even be competitive unless their defense definitely does improve, because they're offensively neck and neck. NE's defense is Way better right now. I don't care if Mahomes can throw it with his foot, KC's overmatched right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Idolater View Post
    KC won't even be competitive unless their defense definitely does improve, because they're offensively neck and neck. NE's defense is Way better right now. I don't care if Mahomes can throw it with his foot, KC's overmatched right now.
    I think if AB is in the fold instead of in court and can maintain they'll be close enough, offensively. But the defense isn't that different than last year for New England, though I look to move it up a bit with Bill being more directly involved. KC stumbled out of the gate in their playoff game last year largely, I think, because Mahomes was up to his neck in the best defensive looks he'd seen and caught by the moment of where he was...he settled down appreciably in the second half and the results were scary. The winner of that game came down to a coin flip, really.

    You're getting second half Mahomes in the playoffs this year. I'm not sure anyone can stop them from representing the AFC. And I'm not sure what Tom is going to look like late in the season. But the acquisition of AB certainly has made it look more interesting.

    On the NFC side, if they play to potential, I see this year as a Saints/Cowboys dust up with home field being the difference maker.

    Quick looks at divisions:

    AFC
    East: Pats. No one likely to even whiff a WC else.
    North: Baltimore looks strong early. Can the Steelers regroup? Could the Browns find their feet?
    South: Houston, absent injury to Watson, which isn't a done deal given how often he's getting hit.
    West: KC going away.

    WC: Chargers...after that it's muddy.

    NFC
    East: Dallas/Philly...one of those two wins and the other is half the WC
    North: GB
    South: NO
    West: Niners upset the Rams as Goff comes back to earth in huge SB letdown.

    WC: Seattle and either the Cowboys or the Eagles, depending.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Again, without math, this one looks like a safe bet. I'd take Carolina.
    We both got this one wrong! But there can be no doubt that Dallas will beat the Redskins by more than five and a half points:

    Dallas -5.5
    At Washington

    Dallas has one of the best group of receivers in the NFL and the Skins woun't be able to cover them. Look at what Jackson did to them last weekend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    We both got this one wrong! But there can be no doubt that Dallas will beat the Redskins by more than five and a half points:

    Dallas -5.5
    At Washington

    Dallas has one of the best group of receivers in the NFL and the Skins woun't be able to cover them. Look at what Jackson did to them last weekend.
    Philly put up a few yards, but AP will be running for Washington and Case looked solid against a pretty good Eagle defense. I'll take the this one closer or a surprise upset.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Philly put up a few yards, but AP will be running for Washington and Case looked solid against a pretty good Eagle defense. I'll take the this one closer or a surprise upset.
    The Skins have a lot of starting players who are hurt and won't play so you still have time to change your mind. AP is not the same ole AP or else he would have been activated last week. But you are right about one thing--divisional games are usually closer than expected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    The Skins have a lot of starting players who are hurt and won't play so you still have time to change your mind. AP is not the same ole AP or else he would have been activated last week. But you are right about one thing--divisional games are usually closer than expected.
    AP rushed for over a thousand yards last year. He's still a very productive back. His teammates voted him their offensive MVP of the season and many of them were upset about the benching. It had nothing to do with AP falling off. AP wants to be the workhorse and his coach didn't want to deal with AP in his ear over the kid, Guise, whom Gruden had chosen and groomed to be the engine of the offense. Gruden wanted to get rid of him in the offseason, but ownership said no. There's a little appreciation and loyalty for the way AP represented AND Gruden is half out the door absent a very strong season.

    As for the game, it's just a hunch. I'm still too busy for figures. Maybe next week?
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    Let's look at these games:

    At Pittsburgh -3.5
    Seattle

    After seeing that the Steelers are such a bad team last week I can't believe that they are favored over the Seahawks so I will take Seattle and the points.

    At LA Rams -2
    New Orleans

    The Rams didn't look that good to me so I will take the Saints and the points.

    Philadelphia -1.5
    At Atlanta

    Unless Atlanta improves significantly over the way they played last week the Eagles will crush them. So I take Philly and give the points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Let's look at these games:

    At Pittsburgh -3.5
    Seattle

    After seeing that the Steelers are such a bad team last week I can't believe that they are favored over the Seahawks so I will take Seattle and the points.

    At LA Rams -2
    New Orleans

    The Rams didn't look that good to me so I will take the Saints and the points.

    Philadelphia -1.5
    At Atlanta

    Unless Atlanta improves significantly over the way they played last week the Eagles will crush them. So I take Philly and give the points.
    Can't fault you with any of these.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Can't fault you with any of these.
    Only one right and two wrong! At least the Cowboys sit at the top of the NFC East by themselves after shutting down AP and the running attack of the Skins! And so far this season Dak is playing heads and shoulders above Wentz!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Only one right and two wrong! At least the Cowboys sit at the top of the NFC East by themselves after shutting down AP and the running attack of the Skins! And so far this season Dak is playing heads and shoulders above Wentz!
    Thanks for talking me off my inclination to take the Skins against Dallas by the spread. I'm 8-7 going into tonight's game.

    Yes, it's a far cry from where I'd be using the math, but I have to admit there's something a lot more fun about doing it this way.

    Oh, and tonight I have Cleveland handling their business and covering the the spread.
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