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Thread: Trump's people find him trailing Biden in battleground states

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    TOL Legend The Barbarian's Avatar
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    Trump's people find him trailing Biden in battleground states

    Data from President Donald Trump's first internal reelection campaign poll conducted in March, obtained exclusively by ABC News, showed him losing a matchup by wide margins to former Vice President Joe Biden in key battleground states.

    Trump has repeatedly denied that such data exists.

    The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pres...ry?id=63718268

    The real benefit for Biden is in the primary campaign. He's got a pretty solid argument that he can beat Trump where it matters the most. Trump's approval is underwater by double-digits in five of the seven upper midwestern states he needs to win to get a second term. And he's behind in the other two.
    https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

    And that's precisely were Biden is strongest.
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    These would be the same pollsters who had Hillary winning in 2016?

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    THE LATEST 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN STORIES FROM FOX NEWS

    Wednesday’s release of the Quinnipiac University poll comes one day after a survey in Michigan indicated both Biden and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – another leading Democratic nomination contender – both topping the president by double digits in potential general election matchups in the crucial battleground state.

    In Texas, the Quinnipiac survey indicated Biden with a 48-44 percent advantage over Trump among Lone Star state voters.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new...ident-in-texas

    Texas hasn't gone for a democrat for president since 1976.
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    Here are the raw numbers for Trump in the states that are expected to be competitive in the 2020 election:

    New Hampshire: 39 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval
    Wisconsin: 42 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval
    Michigan: 42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval
    Iowa: 42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval
    Arizona: 45 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval
    Pennsylvania 45 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval
    Ohio: 46 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval
    North Carolina: 46 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval
    Florida: 48 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval
    Indiana: 49 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval

    It’s a grim picture.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-election-odds

    Failure to make good on his promises of tax relief for his followers, to build his wall, and to implement a better system than Obamacare have hurt him badly. And his trade wars have harmed farmers in place where he needs to win.

    Success in any of those areas could turn things around quickly for him. Some of them would require an about-face, which seems unlikely for a president unwilling to admit fault.
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    Trump Campaign Cutting Ties With Pollsters After Internal Numbers Leaked | Meet The Press | NBC News

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Barbarian View Post
    THE LATEST 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN STORIES FROM FOX NEWS

    Wednesday’s release of the Quinnipiac University poll comes one day after a survey in Michigan indicated both Biden and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – another leading Democratic nomination contender – both topping the president by double digits in potential general election matchups in the crucial battleground state.

    In Texas, the Quinnipiac survey indicated Biden with a 48-44 percent advantage over Trump among Lone Star state voters.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new...ident-in-texas

    Texas hasn't gone for a democrat for president since 1976.
    It wouldn't surprise me if Texas swings blue in 2020. The younger generation significantly votes Democrat and the white population is getting older and smaller.

    I'm curious if the GOP has a plan to try to attract more young people to their party because if they don't they will eventfully become a minor political party.
    Last edited by The Berean; June 17th, 2019 at 10:13 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ok doser View Post
    These would be the same pollsters who had Hillary winning in 2016?
    Probably. Trump's gonna need another bump from his comrades.
    _/\_

    Christians: "I - a stranger and afraid - in a world I never made.." -- Houseman

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    Quote Originally Posted by quip View Post
    Trump's gonna need another bump from his comrades.
    The polls had Clinton up by 2%. She ended up getting 1% more votes than Trump. Now he's down by double digits in most states he must win, and he's in a statistical tie with Biden in Texas.

    If the polls are as accurate this time as they were the last time, he's going to need a lot more help from Putin than he got back then.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Barbarian View Post
    The polls had Clinton up by 2%.

    505 days before the election?

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    Quote Originally Posted by quip View Post
    Probably. Trump's gonna need another bump from his comrades.
    isn't that what friends comrades are for?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ok doser View Post
    isn't that what friends comrades are for?
    YES!
    I have no idea what you're talking about.
    _/\_

    Christians: "I - a stranger and afraid - in a world I never made.." -- Houseman

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    Read this my authoritarian lemmings....BECAUSE I SAID SO!!
    _/\_

    Christians: "I - a stranger and afraid - in a world I never made.." -- Houseman

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    President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his campaign’s internal polling numbers are the “best” ever despite the Trump campaign’s internal polling showing the president behind former Vice President Joe Biden in key 2020 states.

    Trump said his internal poll numbers were "unbelievable" and that he was "the strongest I've ever been."

    He claimed his campaign is winning in "every state" polled and said to expect the same results on election day.

    "We have great internal polling, there were fake polls released by somebody that is -- it is ridiculous. We are winning in every single state that we polled," Trump said. "We're winning in Texas very big, in Ohio very big, in Florida very big. "
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=63659473

    That makes sense. Politicians always fire their pollsters when they report that the polls show them winning in every state. (WFTH-I)
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    Brad Parscale, Trump’s campaign manager, conceded that the polling results – the ones his boss said were “fake,” “made up,” and non-existent – were real, but out of date.

    Parscale added that his operation has seen “huge swings in the president’s favor” since that internal poll was conducted in March, which seems awfully hard to believe given the overall trajectory of Trump’s national standing.

    But in case this weren’t a big enough fiasco, Team Trump has responded to these developments by shaking up his polling team.

    President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is cutting ties with some of its own pollsters after leaked internal polling showed the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in critical 2020 battleground states, according to a person close to the campaign. […]

    A separate person close to the Trump re-election team told NBC News Saturday that the campaign will be cutting ties with some of its pollsters in response to the information leaks, although the person did not elaborate as to which pollsters would be let go.

    According to the Washington Post, the Trump campaign is “severing its relationship with Brett Loyd, Mike Baselice and Adam Geller while keeping pollsters Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin.”

    Whether the shake-up is a response to the leaks or the president’s dissatisfaction with the results is the subject of some debate.

    Either way, this is a mess.

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-s...che-team-trump

    It's a long way to November, and there have been candidates this far behind who actually won the presidency. I think... (Barbarian checks)

    There's this:

    Public opinion surveys, which were still in their infancy, had Truman down consistently in a four-way field. Immediately after Labor Day, the Elmo Roper poll showed that 44.3 percent of respondents favored Republican nominee Thomas Dewey to 31.4 percent for the president (Former Vice President Henry Wallace, the Progressive nominee, registered at 3.6 percent; Thurmond, 4.4 percent).
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...history-214195

    Biden is currently up by an average of about 8.7 percent.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

    So there's hope for Trump. Assuming he can pull off what Truman did by attacking the Congress as "do nothing."

    Should be interesting...
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    Fox polls now have Biden ahead of Trump by double digits:
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
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