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Thread: NFL 2018 Season Starts Tonight

  1. #16
    Out of Order Town Heretic's Avatar
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    Now about Dallas at home against the Giants. If a team needed a good match up to promote a sense that the season isn't going to slip away this is that game for Cowboys fans. Dallas is a 2.5 fav while the money is 60/40 on the upset.

    I understand the upset crowd, but...

    But why? Well, in 2015 Eli was playing at a pro-bowl level. In 2016 he played a step below that, but was still very good, if inconsistent. Last year he looked like a back up. He's always thrown too many picks, but his td to int ratio took an alarming dive and he has been in decline across every meaningful statistical category. Some of that has been the talent around him, granted. But some of it is just time and arm. It's usually the last thing to go among the rocket launcher set. Eli always had a good arm, but he doesn't push the long ball with the same velocity these days. If my eye is right that's not coming back. Which means wrs will have to make up the difference and that limits the field and potency of the offense...

    So what are we looking at? Last year, on average, the Giants put up around 15 pts a game. Dallas managed around a td more and gave up 4 fewer a game.

    Both teams played at about the level I anticipated last week. The Giants were right at my marks on both sides of the ball. Dallas was surprisingly weaker offensively (run the dad blasted ball) but much better defensively.

    For all those reasons I'd take Dallas by around 7. But they have to balance their offense. You can't have Prescot throwing 30 times and Elliot running it 15 times. That's not going to work. They should rebound and make the line comfortably. Something like 23-16.
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  2. #17
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    For all those reasons I'd take Dallas by around 7. But they have to balance their offense. You can't have Prescot throwing 30 times and Elliot running it 15 times. That's not going to work. They should rebound and make the line comfortably. Something like 23-16.
    Thanks!

    I hope you are right about Manning because that is about the only way that Dallas can win the game! Their running game was practically non-existent in their loss last week and I don't seeing it improving much against the Giants! Besides that, their receivers couldn't get open and I don't think that will change against the New York Football Team.

    I hope the defense can score some points. I think that the bet this week will be the "under."

    But thanks again because at least I have some hope now which I didn't have before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Thanks!

    I hope you are right about Manning because that is about the only way that Dallas can win the game! Their running game was practically non-existent in their loss last week and I don't seeing it improving much against the Giants! Besides that, their receivers couldn't get open and I don't think that will change against the New York Football Team.

    I hope the defense can score some points. I think that the bet this week will be the "under."

    But thanks again because at least I have some hope now which I didn't have before.
    Hopefully this won't be one of the games I miss. I feel pretty comfortable with that spread and the only reason you didn't have a running game was your guys didn't put it in Eliot's hands enough to establish it. The Giants will have to look like something they haven't in a while to upset that applecart. It can happen, but I don't see it as likely.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I feel pretty comfortable with that spread and the only reason you didn't have a running game was your guys didn't put it in Eliot's hands enough to establish it.
    Do you blame that on the coaches?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Do you blame that on the coaches?
    Absolutely. You have a weapon like Elliot and don't use him then the dbs are freer and your wrs aren't scaring anyone to begin with, aren't creating separation. You have to run Eliot and make the defense move toward the line, or at least use him more as another set of hands out of the backfield to do the same thing, or Prescot has to throw them open with timing. You have to create space for the lesser wr corps. That's what the Jets did in their victory.
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  6. #21
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Absolutely. You have a weapon like Elliot and don't use him then the dbs are freer and your wrs aren't scaring anyone to begin with, aren't creating separation. You have to run Eliot and make the defense move toward the line, or at least use him more as another set of hands out of the backfield to do the same thing, or Prescot has to throw them open with timing. You have to create space for the lesser wr corps. That's what the Jets did in their victory.
    The problem I saw was the offensive line wasn't opening up any holes for Elliott. The Boys have a rookie at left guard and a second teamer at center. So I can understand why the coaches didn't continue to feed Zeke the ball. Do you think that the coaches should continue to try to run the ball even though Zeke has no place to go?

    Thanks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Hopefully this won't be one of the games I miss. I feel pretty comfortable with that spread and the only reason you didn't have a running game was your guys didn't put it in Eliot's hands enough to establish it. The Giants will have to look like something they haven't in a while to upset that applecart. It can happen, but I don't see it as likely.
    giants should win this game...
    Even in the very best of situations, voting is still an unmitigated failure. The fact that any simple majority of individuals (mob) can determine an outcome that adversely affects the minority (mob rule) is against all natural rights. In the United State today, all who vote harm others so that they might benefit. By voting, they are also sanctioning theft of private property at the point of a gun, and the redistribution of that property to those who did not earn it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drbrumley View Post
    giants should win this game...
    Anything is possible. Certainly the Giants need to. You don't want to go into the 0-2 hole. Only around 10% of teams that do that actually make the playoffs. Neither team inspires confidence at this point.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  9. The Following User Says Thank You to Town Heretic For Your Post:

    drbrumley (September 13th, 2018)

  10. #24
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Neither team inspires confidence at this point.
    You got that right!

  11. #25
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    My Falcons Offence still struggled in the red zone, not good. Then 2 starters on D are hurt, one out for the season. I still believe we have one of the best teams in the league !
    "... I have my own private opinion that there is no such a thing as
    preaching Christ and him crucified, unless you preach what now-a-days is
    called Calvinism. I have my own ideas, and those I always state boldly. It is
    a nickname to call it Calvinism; Calvinism is the gospel, and nothing else."

    Charles Spurgeon !

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    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beloved57 View Post
    My Falcons Offence still struggled in the red zone, not good. Then 2 starters on D are hurt, one out for the season. I still believe we have one of the best teams in the league !
    It's just my opinion but I think that the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is the reason for the Falcon's struggles on offense at this point in time. But I also think that with time and with their great personnel it can be fixed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    It's just my opinion but I think that the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is the reason for the Falcon's struggles on offense at this point in time. But I also think that with time and with their great personnel it can be fixed.
    Yeah this the 2nd season under new OC
    "... I have my own private opinion that there is no such a thing as
    preaching Christ and him crucified, unless you preach what now-a-days is
    called Calvinism. I have my own ideas, and those I always state boldly. It is
    a nickname to call it Calvinism; Calvinism is the gospel, and nothing else."

    Charles Spurgeon !

  14. #28
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    My picks for this week:

    Houston -4
    At Tennessee

    I take Houston and give the four points.

    At New Orleans -9.5
    Cleveland

    I pick the Browns and take the points.

    At Pittsburgh -4
    Kansas City

    I take the Chiefs plus the points.

    At Dallas -3
    NY Giants 42.5

    I take the "Under" on the total points scored in the game.

    So far this season I am 2-2.
    Last edited by Jerry Shugart; September 16th, 2018 at 09:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    My picks for this week:

    Houston -4
    At Tennessee

    I take Houston and give the four points.

    At New Orleans -9.5
    Cleveland

    I pick the Browns and take the points.

    At Pittsburgh -4
    Kansas City

    I take the Chiefs plus the points.

    At Dallas -3
    NY Giants 42.5

    I take the "Under" on the total points scored in the game.

    So far this season I am 2-2.
    I got my picks in under the wire with ESPN, but I'm up to ears with family stuff this week, so I had to pass. I'll let you know how it turned out and, hopefully, get next week's in early. Shoot.

    At a glance I think we agree on your picks. My lines were different, with the NO line being lower and I think I took the Saints at a point or so lower. Otherwise I think we're agreeing on them. I'll check back later.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  16. #30
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    Okay, I did another round of quick math just under the wire but didn’t have enough time to say anything about the games so I left off. At least I’ll get to say something about Monday and maybe tonight’s game, depending (both sets of grandparents moving through the house today like a weather front).

    Week Two

    1. Bal (.5) @ Cin: the money was moving 69/31 in favor of that scant cover. I had it by more, though it was less about the Ravens playing worse and more about the Bengals playing an impressive game at home. Son of a gun and a weak week 2 beginning. 0-1

    Final
    : 23-34 Cin. 0 – 1

    2. Car @ Atl (5.5): a substandard opening loss on the road has the Falcons looking for a bounce back game against an injury hampered Carolina on the road. I like their chances with that banged up Panther's squad. Make it something like 28-21 Atlanta.

    Final
    : 24-31 Atl 1 – 1

    3. SD (7.5) @ Buf: After the debacle of that Jests plastering they took I wouldn’t have cared if the line was double digits. The Chargers just have too much talent.

    Final
    : 31-20 Chargers and I’m back in the saddle 2 – 1

    4. Cle @ NO(8.5): I like the Saints to course correct at home, but not by near double digits against a much better than I’m comfortable with Cleveland. How close? I liked them by a td, which is enough to give me a queasy Browns and the points gamble.

    Final
    : 21-18 NO…I’ll take it. 3 – 1

    5. Min @ GB (.5): Essentially a coin toss game that has the money looking 71/29 at a Vikings upset. I have it 23-22 Vikings, so I'm looking for the technical upset.

    Final
    : 29-29 and a tie is as good as a win. 4 – 1

    6. Hou (2.5) @ Ten: and it is 80/20 that the Texans will make that line. I have it 23-19 Houston.

    Final
    : 17-20 Ten…with lines like these you’re going to get one like that. But I was more surprised by how poorly Houston travelled than the loss. 4 – 2

    7. Ind @ Was (5.5): Okay, I love this game with that line. It is 64/36 for the Redskins cover, which has me laughing all the way to the imaginary bank. Okay, to be fair I have it 26-21, but still…a half point can be as good as a mile.

    Final
    : 21-9 Indy…there's that mile and Washington has some splainin’ to do. 5 – 2

    8. KC @ Pit (5.5): Does anyone believe that beaten up Steeler team is going to cover that line against the talent coming in from KC? A few, as support is running 71/29 for KC. Sign me up as a Chiefs believer.

    Final
    : 42-37 KC and a decent week in the making. 6 – 2

    9. Mia @ Jests(2.5): while the future is looking brighter for New York Jets fans, Miami keeps fielding solid teams without much to exploit. I liked the Fins last week and I like them on the road against a team whose impression is resting on Buffalo...Buffalo.

    Final
    : 20-17 Mia…and it’s 7 – 2

    10. Phi (3.5) @ TB: no, I don’t believe that Fitz will continue the streak, but who knows. If there's a team to end the streak early it's Philly. I'd rather have a fg line, but I can't put my faith in Tampa, even at home and even with streaky on a hot one.

    Final
    : 27-21 Bucs…wow…7 – 3 And I'm still not convinced. Who do they play next week?
    11. Det @ SF (5.5): seems like a lot of points for SF to cover. I have it 30-27 for the Niners.

    Final
    : 27-30 SF 8 – 3

    12: Arz @ Rams (12.5): forget the fact they’re playing a strong candidate for the SB, is there a team you like less than the Cardinals after last week? I have it 34-17 Rams. Did not see the offensive shut out. That’s impressive against anyone, even the suddenly problematic Cardinals.

    Final
    : 34-0 Rams 9 – 3

    13. Oak @ Den (5.5): I’m going to crow about this one if it works. I have it Oakland 23-21. Maybe that's overreaching at altitude, but Gruden's troop is better than you think.

    Final
    : 20-19 Den 10 – 3 And now I'm not sure if they're better or Denver isn't quite as good. Ask me next week.
    14. NE (2.5) @ Jac: I like Jacksonville at home to win by a fg as well. Back to back upset calls. We’ll see if either works out.

    Final
    : 31-20 Jags Yeah, I’m feeling good about that. 11 - 3

    15. Gia @ Dal (2.5): A coin toss for me. I’m taking Dallas because I’m just that worried about Eli. It’s one of those who knows games and I’m playing a hunch that Dallas isn’t ready to lay down and the Giants won’t get out of their own way. Hey, it’s not going to break the week either way.

    Final
    :

    16. Sea @ Chi (3.5): I like this one for the Bears by about 5, say 26-21. Seattle has internal issues and a bruised qb. Chicago is angry over last week and playing at home with another week to work in their newest defensive star.

    Final
    :
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

    Pro-Life







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