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Thread: Sports Talk 2018: Lebron to Brady and Everything in Between

  1. #271
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    Putting together a top 25 NFL qbs using an adjusted rating system. I take the career stats and the SB stats, factor appearances and wins in the SB in relation to position play.

    25. Theismann
    24. Jurgenson
    23. Griese
    22. Aikman
    21. Tarkenton

    20. Kelly
    19. Rivers
    18. Romo
    17. Dawson
    16. Elway

    15. Favre
    14. Unitas
    13. Starr
    12. Warner
    11. Roethlisberger

    10. Staubach
    9. Wilson
    8. Brees
    7. Graham
    6. Marino

    5. Rogers
    4. Manning
    3. Young
    2. Brady
    1. Montana
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    Thirteen quarterbacks better than Unitas?

    That's a joke just like twenty-one quarterbacks better than Aikman!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Thirteen quarterbacks better than Unitas?
    By production, yes, even adjusting for the inflation of the modern game. Some put him in the top five, some put him lower than I have him. I even came across a ranking that had Starr and Unitas exactly where I put them. The higher placements were largely subjective valuations without rubrics or much math involved. What I did was look at career rating, adjust that for modern rules changes, then factor hardware/playoff performance and SBs into it. Where the career included pre SB championships I gave some credit as well. Otto Graham was one of those.

    That's a joke
    Well, I'd understand that sentiment if you were talking about my including Romo or disputing Roger being that high, but that's how the math played out.

    just like twenty-one quarterbacks better than Aikman!
    Like I said, Unitas you can see much higher and you could argue lower. I always thought of him as the king of the old guard, until I started wading into his production. Still great, but the only way to move him up my list would be to seriously fudge the math. I think he and Starr are about where they need to be, though the separation as I have it is so close at that point that I could understand someone moving him as high as 11. Who is he kicking off the top ten though?

    To my mind, Aikman was a lot like Griese. Talented, but he rarely put up gaudy numbers. He was more of an elite game manager. People forget that at first that there was a quarterback question in Dallas. But with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a great wr and compliment, and a workhorse at running back, he did his part to put together a dynasty and earned a spot in the top quarter. You'd have to make the case for who he replaces on the list. And he also had a shortened career.

    You could look at the position by rules generated eras. Have one for Star, Graham, Unitas and that crew, another for Marino, Young, Montana, Elway and that group, and a last for Brady and his generation forward. Probably fairer to the old guard, especially, though Graham made my top ten, so you can't say I was prejudiced about them. I never got to see them, so all I can do is compare them by the numbers and try to be as fair with adjusting those for the rules alterations.

    Okay, take your own stab. Give me your top 25. Or, if that's too daunting, try your top 20, or even top 10.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    By production, yes, even adjusting for the inflation of the modern game.
    According to you the list was for the "top quarterbacks." And you think that there have been thirteen quarterbacks that top Johhy Unitas. He was named the most valuable player of the league three times. He was named to ten pro bowl teams and was named on the first team pro bowl team five times.

    And according to you Fran Tarkenton topped Troy Aikman. I saw the two play many, many times and Tarkenton's skills were not even close to Aikman's. Aikman's passing stats suffer because his passing skills were so good that the Boys usually had a big lead at half time so they kept feeding Emmitt the ball for the rest of the game.

    One day you might finally realize that stats don't tell the whole story.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    According to you the list was for the "top quarterbacks." And you think that there have been thirteen quarterbacks that top Johhy Unitas.
    I've noted that it's close quarters at the top. You could argue him into the top 10, but I don't see him above 11, personally.

    He was named the most valuable player of the league three times. He was named to ten pro bowl teams and was named on the first team pro bowl team five times.
    And he was a great quarterback. By the numbers the 13th best out of everyone to ever play the position.

    And according to you Fran Tarkenton topped Troy Aikman.
    Not only me and according to the numbers he did.

    I saw the two play many, many times and Tarkenton's skills were not even close to Aikman's.
    NFL.com recently ranked qbs while restricting it to SB participating signal callers only. They had Tarkenton at 13 among that class and Aikman at 15.

    Bleacher had Tarkenton a lot higher than I could go and put him 9th. They had Aikman at 22nd.

    Athlon had Tarkenton at 11th and Aikman at 15th.

    There is a lot of traction for Unitas being much higher, but I'd argue against it given the people I have in front of him. I'd like to know who to move to accommodate him, great as he was.

    Aikman's passing stats suffer because his passing skills were so good that the Boys usually had a big lead at half time so they kept feeding Emmitt the ball for the rest of the game.
    You could say he wasn't that great until Smith took pressure off of him too. He threw 31 tds against 46 ints through his first 3 seasons under center. It wasn't until the third year that he threw more tds than picks, by a grand total of one. But by year four defenses were having to sit on Smith, or try to, and he got a lot better. I think he did what he needed to do to win. If you go strictly by the old pass rating standard he'd be 16th. Of course, if you do that Staubach is 41st.

    One day you might finally realize that stats don't tell the whole story.
    They can tell me, when I pay close attention, who will win what contest and by how much more often than not.

    Stats don't tell a story. They reflect what actually happened. What we do with what we see is a story, a narrative we create from any number of places. Now that narrative can be interesting to consider, but it's colored by our preference. And that can blind us.

    What would Staubach's record look like with those prime years he gave to the armed services put back on the field? What would Steve Young have done taking Montana's place with Bill for all these years and without a concussion shortened career? What would Peyton have accomplished in New England with those defenses behind him? What if Elway had learned the discipline he had to accept late in his career and had that coaching when he was in his prime?

    What would Marino have done for Pittsburgh?

    They're interesting things to consider, especially when you start talking about the GOAT and how many ways there are to slice that one.

    So, you going to keep complaining about other people's ideas or are you going to put up your own list?
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  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    What would Staubach's record look like with those prime years he gave to the armed services put back on the field?
    If Staubach didn't have to play the great Steelers team with the Steel Curtain in two of his Super Bowls and instead faced the teams which Joe Montana faced in his Super Bowls Staubach would have been 4-0 in his Super Bowls. If Montana had to face those same Steelers he would have been 2-2 and Staubach would have been hailed as the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL--not Montana.

    I just can't believe that you think that Fran Tarkenton was a better quarterback than Troy Aikman, despite the fact that he was the quarterback for the Boys when they won three Super Bowls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    If Staubach didn't have to play the great Steelers team with the Steel Curtain in two of his Super Bowls and instead faced the teams which Joe Montana faced in his Super Bowls Staubach would have been 4-0 in his Super Bowls. If Montana had to face those same Steelers he would have been 2-2 and Staubach would have been hailed as the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL--not Montana.
    I'll give you a "could be" on Staubach and a "Nah" on Montana. Because those Steelers teams would be facing a great and balanced team with, to my mind, the actual GOAT in terms of big game play.

    I just can't believe that you think that Fran Tarkenton was a better quarterback than Troy Aikman
    I can't believe you won't man up and put up your own list for critique.

    Aikman is a peculiar qb to consider because he doesn't put up great numbers, he had a shortened career, and he was only good for half the seasons he played. In the playoffs it's much the same. He's great in 92,93, and 96. He's pretty good but not great in 94. He's terrible in 91, 96, and 98. He's weak back up bad in 99. So half the time he's very good to great and half the time he's awful.

    despite the fact that he was the quarterback for the Boys when they won three Super Bowls.
    He played great in his first win against Buffalo. 273 yds, 4 tds, 0 ints
    He played badly and still got a ring the second time around with Buffalo, throwing for 207 yds, 0 tds against 1 int
    He played up and down in his third, ending with 209 yds, 1 td and 0 ints.

    So he only really was the deciding factor in one of those, contributed in another (the Pittsburgh game) and won in spite of himself in the middle. Could he play? Absolutely. Sometimes great, sometimes not. But he largely rode that running game and contributed. He was, as I noted, an elite game manager. I think he was as good at that role as anyone has been.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I'll give you a "could be" on Staubach and a "Nah" on Montana. Because those Steelers teams would be facing a great and balanced team with, to my mind, the actual GOAT in terms of big game play.
    In your mind but not in reality. If Montana would have had to play the Steelers with their Steel Curtain and all their all pro players on offense the 49ers wouldn't have had a chance. Montana would have been 2-2 in his Super Bowls while Staubach would have been 4-0 and hailed as the greatest of all time. Here is my top 10 list:

    1. Staubach
    2. Brady
    3. Unitas
    4. Montana
    5. Graham
    6. Manning
    7. Marino
    8. Rogers
    9. Brees
    10.Starr

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    In your mind but not in reality.
    Whatever gives you hope.

    Here is my top 10 list:
    Ten? Rookie.

    1. Staubach
    He could have challenged for the top five, but as it sits, no. And there's just no argument for him as GOAT, which is why no one outside of a Cowboy homer would put him here.

    2. Brady
    A lesser Montana in an age where stats are so cheap ESPN had to come up with a new system. Did I mention that in 85, with Marino, Montana, and Elway in stride, no one was rated over 100. Last year it was half the league.

    3. Unitas
    Peyton until Peyton came along. Overrated here, but great.

    4. Montana
    Nobody comes close to him in the SB. Put him on the NE squad and he'd have more hardware than Brady. Putting him here is just begging serious students of the game to mock you...well, for the second time.

    5. Graham
    The actual GOAT of the old timers.

    6. Manning
    Best of his generation and too low on the list. His production was better than Brady regular season AND post, until the last two years when he limped to the finish line. Best way to note the difference here is that when Peyton went down his team won two games. When Brady went down the Pats won 11.

    7. Marino
    Put him behind that Cowboy's line Aikman had and you'd have more rings and records than anyone. Supernatural at read and release.

    8. Rogers
    Most all around physical talent to play the game. Young plus.

    9. Brees
    Made for the modern era. Found the perfect place and coach/scheme to maximize his talent.

    10.Starr
    Great leader, but he wasn't as good at the position as Young, who didn't make your list. I wouldn't fight seeing Unitas here, but Starr?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    1. Staubach
    He could have challenged for the top five, but as it sits, no. And there's just no argument for him as GOAT, which is why no one outside of a Cowboy homer would put him here.
    Staubach had it all in spades. He retired with the highest passer rating of all time. He was a better scrambler than Tarkenton. He was a great leader, a man among boys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Staubach had it all in spades. He retired with the highest passer rating of all time.
    Until he was surpassed, but I agree he was a great one. It's how he cracked the top ten with me. He rarely manages it with others.

    He was a better scrambler than Tarkenton. He was a great leader, a man among boys.
    He was a better runner than Fran, not a better scrambler. I'd say he had more in common with the guy you short changed, Young. Except Young was faster, stronger and even more athletic, though I don't believe there were many to match Roger as a leader.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Except Young was faster, stronger and even more athletic, though I don't believe there were many to match Roger as a leader.
    That is what the stats do not tell about any quarterback, his leadership. If I was starting an NFL franchise and I had my choice of any player in NFL history to be the quarterback and leader of my team I would pick Staubach. No one else comes close!

    Otto Graham, who knew a little about quarterbacks and what makes them great, coached the college All Stars for ten years, had this to say about Staubach:

    "Of all the quarterbacks in that game, Roger was the best I ever had. He was a great leader--that's the most important thing for a quarterback."


    When it came to leadership Montana couldn't carry Staubach's jockstrap and as Otto Graham himself said, leadership is the most important thing for a quarterback.

    I agree with Graham and that is why I believe that the best quarterback to ever play the game, in college or the pros, is Staubach.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    That is what the stats do not tell about any quarterback, his leadership.
    And yet I got that about him without being there to watch him in his heyday. But I love the game and look into the movers and shakers a bit. Which puts a bit of a hole in your idea that I'm a stat only guy, when you consider it.

    If I was starting an NFL franchise and I had my choice of any player in NFL history to be the quarterback and leader of my team I would pick Staubach. No one else comes close!
    See, when you put that tail end and exclamation on it you do him a disservice, because only someone blinded by a homer/team bias would write that and literally no one outside of Dallas homers would fail to roll eyes.

    You can certainly make an argument, if in the "what if" mode, that he'd be worth consideration, but your bias just keeps pushing you a bridge too far.

    Otto Graham, who knew a little about quarterbacks and what makes them great, coached the college All Stars for ten years, had this to say about Staubach:"Of all the quarterbacks in that game, Roger was the best I ever had. He was a great leader--that's the most important thing for a quarterback."

    The best of that old guard, to my mind, Graham was. And I've read that. Do you remember me before that most of the qbs on this list had actually played.

    When it came to leadership Montana couldn't carry Staubach's jockstrap
    You're embarrassing yourself. It's one thing to believe your guy has more of a quality and another to proffer insult to a guy whose nickname tells you why his team felt very differently than you do, and how he could marshal them late in the biggest game to drive for wins.

    Montana...I never rooted for him, but he never played less than remarkable in every SB he led a team into...no picks, no rating under a hundred, no losses in multiple efforts. What other quarterback can say that?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Montana...I never rooted for him, but he never played less than remarkable in every SB he led a team into...no picks, no rating under a hundred, no losses in multiple efforts. What other quarterback can say that?
    I wonder what Montana's stats would have been if not for Jerry Rice and all the yards after catch he compiled. All Montana had to do was to compete a five yard pass to Rice and then Rice would stretch the completion to make it a fifty yard gain. After all, no one even mentioned the stat called "Yards After Completion" until Rice came along.

    It was easy for Montana's team mates to have confidence in Montana BECAUSE they knew that he would be throwing little dinky passes to Rice which Rice would break for a touchdown.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    I wonder what Montana's stats would have been if not for Jerry Rice and all the yards after catch he compiled.
    Well, pretty good is the reasonable answer, given he won as many Super Bowls without Jerry as he did with him. Joe had 2 years of 90 or better rating with Rice and 3 of those without him. He had his best year just as Jerry was coming into his prime, which you'd expect given how great a wr Jerry was, but Montana's reputation and winning ways preceded the youngster, whose production was never the same after Joe left. But I'll come back to this in a moment.

    Joe had an 11.25 yards per catch before Rice, including his anemic rookie year in that (with a weak 7.4).
    With Jerry it was 12.33 per catch. About a yard difference. Less if you don't factor Joe's first year learning the system.

    All Montana had to do was to compete a five yard pass to Rice and then Rice would stretch the completion to make it a fifty yard gain.
    So then I looked at Joe's best year with Rice, 1989, 112 rating and an amazing 9+ yards per completion.

    Montana threw for 3,521 yds and 26 tds.
    Steve Young threw for 1,001 yards that year and 8 tds.
    Steve Bono threw for 62 yards and 1 td.

    So, combined, the qbs fro SF threw for 4,584 yards.

    Jerry accounted for 1,483 of those yards. Leaving over 3,000 yards for Taylor, Craig, and others.

    Meaning Rice was actually around 32% of the passing offense. Montana was largely throwing to others more often, which makes sense. He threw to the best man open, or threw him open. Jerry was that more often than any other receiver, but you are wrong about Joe's habits.

    He developed them throwing Super Bowl winning drives and pulling teams together eight years before Jerry ever found the field.

    Now Rice did generate a disproportionate number of tds, 17 out of the 36 total thrown by all quarterbacks, or just a little under half.

    After all, no one even mentioned the stat called "Yards After Completion" until Rice came along.
    Jerry was incredible and his time with Montana was productive, even though most of his prime was with Young.

    He averaged 17.9 yards per reception with Joe in their relatively brief time together.
    Without Joe, his average (in years where he eclipsed 1,000 yards) was 14.03 per catch.

    Or, if you look at Joe's average yards per catch and Jerry's average per catch, you realize Joe had nearly four times the better impact on Jerry than the other way around.

    Joe gained about a yard better per pass with Jerry on board. Jerry's average was 3.6 yards better with Joe throwing to him than anyone else.

    His highest average after Joe only 15.3 per catch.
    With Joe his best year was 20.4 per catch.

    In other words, Joe's passing has a great deal to do with Rice's reputation. While he remained potent with Young and beyond, he was never as impressive as he was in those early five full time starting years with Joe, despite his physical prime coming as Joe left and the reigns were taken over by future Super Bowl winning and Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young.

    It was easy for Montana's team mates to have confidence in Montana BECAUSE they knew that he would be throwing little dinky passes to Rice which Rice would break for a touchdown.
    No. That's just bias and slight showing a want of knowledge, supra. They knew Joe was a winner, that he kept cool under pressure and that he won his hardware with almost completely different compliments. Jerry didn't make Montana's rep, but Joe helped make Jerry's.
    Last edited by Town Heretic; August 25th, 2019 at 01:00 AM.
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