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Thread: NFL 2017

  1. #196
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Excellent. You should try calling all the games.
    I approach this in the same way which I would do if I were going to actually gamble on the games. I pick the games and point spreads which I think gives me the best shot at winning and ignore the rest.

    You ought to try it sometimes.

  2. #197
    Over 3000 post club WizardofOz's Avatar
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    Packers defense looked great against an admittedly weak Seahawks front line.

    I am thrilled that the Packers pulled that one off.
    “To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

    ― Theodore Roosevelt

  3. #198
    Out of Order Town Heretic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    I approach this in the same way which I would do if I were going to actually gamble on the games. I pick the games and point spreads which I think gives me the best shot at winning and ignore the rest.

    You ought to try it sometimes.
    I prefer the challenge of having to call every game, including the fairly close contests. I've done it for a number of years here and done fairly well, though I'll admit I don't do the research and apply the same formulas I did when it mattered (it takes money to move me to that kind of time). The best I've done with Pigskin Pick'em put me in the top 15 a few years back, when I was still putting in some work, rating by position then pulling the whole thing together. For the past few I've done well enough for the fun of it, taking averages and making preseason adjustments off guesses, running it all together for the first few weeks to get fairly decent window.


    Otherwise I'd look for the money line. This week that would have meant taking KC and not really caring about the rest because outside of the Steelers and Falcons there's no premium. And the Steelers line would have been too big for me to take on the road. I might have taken the Falcons, but the qb and road factor might have moved me off of it...and that means I'd be done after Thursday.

    Okay, well if anyone is game to put their neck out on the shooting match, jump in. I'll be doing this every week if I have the time.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  4. #199
    Out of Order Town Heretic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardofOz View Post
    Packers defense looked great against an admittedly weak Seahawks front line.

    I am thrilled that the Packers pulled that one off.
    My one question about Seattle going into the season was line play and it still is...they have the talent.

    My concern about GB is the loss of Lacy and how they fill that need for balance. Aaron wasn't great last night. Really good, but not great. And their running game was anemic. So there are concerns. On the other side of it, they played solid defense. Take away a couple of scrambles by Wilson and Seattle's running game didn't get it done either, while Wilson was effectively contained passing.

    A good night to be a Pack fan.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  6. #200
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Otherwise I'd look for the money line.
    Why don't you do both? I would be interested in seeing how you would do if you approached it like I do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Why don't you do both?
    Mostly a matter of time. If I was putting money in it I'd put a lot more work into the numbers than I'm interested in at present. I did bet sports before my conversion. I stuck with series baseball and NFL games, because I found that as with dog racing if you spent enough time breaking it down you really could make the right statistical call enough to make money at it.

    I'm too busy with school to attempt it and since I don't gamble anymore I haven't found that level of interest.


    Okay, looking back over the games so far...

    KC @ NE: While I didn't think Brady (sans a dependable weapon) would play pinball with KC or make that big a number, losing and losing the way they did certainly surprised me. I had it a 28 - 21 contest because of Brady not having the full complement and KC playing well away with that defense. This would have been the one game I took and put money on because it had all the earmarks of a line upset to me and the general money was going nuts the other way.

    Alex ends the day with a 148 and Brady pulls an embarrassing 70...astonishing, but until it happens again you have to think both signal callers had a rare day.

    Atl @ Chi: Nervous about this mostly because I hate a dome team playing in the elements on the road and you didn't know what was going to happen offensively with the Bears. Now we do. Ryan's 116 was expected, but the point production, even on the road, was much lower than I expected, which cost me the game by line. Chicago looks to be competitive this year. I'd have been tempted, but likely stayed away from this one because Atlanta is a temperamental dome team and I hated betting them outside of the structures.

    Jets @ Buf: nothing to see here. Taylor looked like a good qb on a mediocre team and the Jests looked like they need a qb. Same ol.

    Bal @ Cin: I thought this one would be a fg either way without a lot of scoring. A game only a mother loves. What the actual outcome portends is anyone's guess. It certainly makes next week more interesting for fans of either.

    Pit @ Cle: How surprising is this? I actually had the Steelers covering. But I never like to wade into a rookie qb situation if there's any defense to speak of. That can narrow the gap considerably if the rookie has talent, given the absence of a book.

    Arz @ Det: was a pick'em game for everyone watching. That's reason enough to stay away from it. Money was moving solidly into the visitor's end late. Palmer was awful. Was last year foreshadowing or was this just one of those road games? A repeatable theme for the week as a number of good qbs had off days while rookies and those who normally don't shine were brilliant.

    Oak @ Ten: two hot qbs last year who saw promise ended by injury. Both looked pretty good. Looked like another push. The half point line said the same...redzone made the difference. The Titans need to get Henry more involved and the offense needs to be more creative inside the 20.

    Phi @ Was: another push, where Cousins looked wan without run support and Wentz continued to build the hopes of the Philly faithful with a strong outing.

    Jac @ Hou
    : ...just who the heck cares anymore? The curse of Manning continues in Houston. Jac? Don't write home just yet.

    Sea @ GB: talked about this one earlier. Line play for Seattle failed and GB played surprisingly good defense. A good beginning for the Pack.

    Car @ SF: I know it's on the road and I know Cam had a really good day, but I expected him to light this team up. I'm a little worried that he didn't.

    Gia @ Dal: at full strength 9 - 20 Cowboys. But the Giant's weren't and that took a few away. They both looked as expected otherwise. I think New York will play them tougher down the road. Great start for Dallas though.

    UPCOMING:

    NO @ Min: home sweet homecoming for AP? The Saints are playing a solid opponent and still have serious defensive questions to answer. If you like the Saints you need to hope a shift to more running might help rest the D and keep opposing offenses on the sideline. You certainly have the offensive firepower to play last man standing...I have the Vikings and 3, so I'm taking the half point and running with it...well, without actual money on the line.

    SD @ Den: I know, but two LA teams is just irritating. I like Denver by a td in this one, so I can live more comfortably with the 3.5...but Rivers can light it up on the road and Denver has yet to produce an heir for Peyton. Will this be the game that begins the search or settles?
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  8. #202
    Journeyman JPPT1974's Avatar
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    Well the Cowboys finally snapped the Giants last year of winning against the Big D in 2016. Cowboys did win on defense and F.G.'s.
    Lover of Gifford-Michaels

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  10. #203
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Gia @ Dal: at full strength 9 - 20 Cowboys. But the Giant's weren't and that took a few away. They both looked as expected otherwise. I think New York will play them tougher down the road. Great start for Dallas though.
    The Boys were missing their starting middle linebacker and in the first quarter they lost their best cornerback. So they were not at full strength either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    The Boys were missing their starting middle linebacker and in the first quarter they lost their best cornerback. So they were not at full strength either.
    They didn't need the same pressure or coverage with the Giants missing Beckham, who is the Zeke on that offensive unit. So Dallas was a point off what I thought they'd do and the Giants were nearly a td shy. That's the Beckham difference. Put Beckham in and take Zeke out and I'd take the Giants with that line.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  12. #205
    TOL Legend Jerry Shugart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Put Beckham in and take Zeke out and I'd take the Giants with that line.
    You must have been watching another game!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    You must have been watching another game!
    One of the few I could actually enjoy.

    Ah, well. So it ended 10-5, and 6-9 for me, with 2 games lost by a half point, the margin for a losing record flip against the line. On the plus side, I got a better sense of the players...maybe.

    I saw the likely outcome as NO 25, Min 28...the Vikes did about as expected and the Saints not quite. They were evenly matched in performance except for the margin established in that 2nd quarter, which is a better sign for NO than the home team. Brees was shy on tds (only one) against a stout defense, but moved the ball well and ended with a qbr over a hundred. But the running game wasn't there and they didn't do much to establish it. AP can't have six carries on the night or why pick him up? Bradford was nearly perfect, with 346 yds, 3 tds and no picks and his running game looked solid (at least against the Saints) churning up 129 yds by Cook and a 5.8 avg. Which makes the relatively even nature of 3 out of four quarters a little of an eye opener. If I told you about Bradford and Cook first, followed it with Brees held to a td without much run support I doubt anyone would guess that final score.

    Or, the Saints are redzone running game away from taking this one.

    But the real disappointment was in Denver. I had it SD (I know) 18, Denver 25 with a comfortable 7 point margin. Denver leads 24 - 7 going into the 4th...and Denver gives up two unanswered tds to blow the margin. Denver misses a fg, throws an int and coughs up the ball in the 4th? Not good, even with the win.

    Denver's lost quarter and Atlanta's forgotten offense cost me a decent week against the line.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  14. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    One of the few I could actually enjoy.
    Even if the Giants had Beckham and the Boys did not have Zeke the Boys would have won anyway. That is because the offensive line of the New York Football Club is so poor that Eli never had the time to wait for his receivers to get open. And that would not change even if Beckham was playing.

    Stick a fork in the Giants!

    And that leads us to next Monday night's game:

    New York Giants -4
    Detroit Lions

    I will take the points and the Lions. And I will also take the Texans and the points against Cincy:

    Cincinnati -5
    Houston

  15. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Even if the Giants had Beckham and the Boys did not have Zeke the Boys would have won anyway.
    I'd have still had them winning, but not by the margin of the line.

    That is because the offensive line of the New York Football Club is so poor that Eli never had the time to wait for his receivers to get open. And that would not change even if Beckham was playing.
    It's early. Who knows? I love Dan Patrick's "over reaction Monday" spot. One of my favorites was, "I guess it's time to consider Jacksonville a contender!"

    Stick a fork in the Giants!


    And that leads us to next Monday night's game:

    New York Giants -4
    Detroit Lions
    Haven't looked, but Giants at home against a traveling domer? First blush moves me the other way. I'll flesh it out later.

    I will take the points and the Lions. And I will also take the Texans and the points against Cincy:

    Cincinnati -5
    Houston
    The Bengals can't play that badly two in a row and Houston has shown no offense. I'm inclined to go Bengals.

    Well rested TB is a surprising 6.5 favorite over the visiting Bears. And Pittsburgh is a 6.5 fav. over visiting Vikes.
    Can Oakland cover 14.5 against the Jests? Will Dallas beat Denver a mile high covering the 1.5? Is NE 5.5 better than the Saints IN NO? And should Atlanta be a fg home favorite as GB comes calling?

    An interesting week.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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  16. #209
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    Dallas -2
    Denver

    It is hard to take the Cowboys here because of Denver's advantage in regard to the altitude of Mile High Stadium. Early in the season the teams are not in as good a shape as they will be later in the season and that explains why Denver is 19-1 in their first two home games during the last ten years.

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    Looks like Jerry's hunch was the right call on Cin. as Dalton and company are in a freefall. On the other side, Watson may be, may be what Houston has been looking for...a modest enough outing, but he didn't turn it over, gained some serious yds rushing when the opportunity presented, and played within himself. A case where I think the QBR was more on point than the traditional rating.
    You aren't what you eat, but you're always what you swallow.

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