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    Your powers are weak, old man. Knight's Avatar
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    NFL 2017

    Well here we go folks. The NFL draft is just around the corner and therefore it's time to start thinking about he 2017.

    Which teams appear to be on the way up and which teams appear to be headed towards the cellar?

    Can New England defend it's Super Bowl title? Or is there another team that looks like it will lift the Lombardi Trophy?
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    Over 4000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    A reliable source of mine said that Brady is quoted as saying he'd like to play til age 45. Phew, that's season-to-season at this point, meaning each one could be his last, and if he gets to be 43 and 44 then it'll be game-to-game for sure, unless he's some of kind of a physical marvel among physical marvels, which to call it long odds is understating the unlikelihood, but it sure will be exciting regardless.

    The argument persists about GOAT, between him and Montana, but he has certainly proven that he is the Greatest Something of All Time (maybe "system quarterback?" :Plain ), perhaps his remaining years will help us clarify exactly what Greatest Something that he is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    A reliable source of mine said that Brady is quoted as saying he'd like to play til age 45. Phew, that's season-to-season at this point, meaning each one could be his last, and if he gets to be 43 and 44 then it'll be game-to-game for sure, unless he's some of kind of a physical marvel among physical marvels, which to call it long odds is understating the unlikelihood, but it sure will be exciting regardless.

    The argument persists about GOAT, between him and Montana, but he has certainly proven that he is the Greatest Something of All Time (maybe "system quarterback?" :Plain ), perhaps his remaining years will help us clarify exactly what Greatest Something that he is.
    I've been calling him the greatest system qb of all time for a while. It's a great system and a terrific coach. Anyone who calls him the GOAT is simply nuts. Montana was 4-0 in SBs without an Int. He played in a time when it was much harder to put up numbers, harder to play the position, and the beating he took moved him out of SF with a couple of years still in the tank. Young won a SB in one of those years (though Montana beat him with an inferior team in their only head to head) and Joe could have managed that.

    Brady lost two with leading offenses that sputtered when it mattered, won his first three by Adam's leg and is only arguably the best of his generation. When he was lost for a season a qb who won't even be an afterthought in any serious conversation about quality qbs led that team to eleven wins. When Manning was lost for a year his team won two games.
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    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    I'll keep my off season stuff in the off season thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I've been calling him the greatest system qb of all time for a while.
    Agree or not: Joe Montana wouldn't have played as well as Brady in Brady's system?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    Agree or not: Joe Montana wouldn't have played as well as Brady in Brady's system?
    Don't see why he wouldn't. Tom had a stronger arm, but they had the same average per pass, so it isn't like Brady has played like Daryle Lamonica.
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    Silver Member patrick jane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Don't see why he wouldn't. Tom had a stronger arm, but they had the same average per pass, so it isn't like Brady has played like Daryle Lamonica.
    Brady is the GOAT
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    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    Brady before or after 2007? That is when he started deflating, according to some disgruntled dbs in the league. And I think that is when the teams got to take their own ball.

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    Over 4000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    Don't see why he wouldn't. Tom had a stronger arm, but they had the same average per pass, so it isn't like Brady has played like Daryle Lamonica.
    So how is Montana not the best system qb of all time?
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    Quote Originally Posted by patrick jane View Post
    Brady is the GOAT
    Then Bill Russell is the GOAT of the NBA. Only he isn't, because a ring count isn't only a part of the story.

    Again:

    Brady has more rings. So does Bill Russell. But who played the best and had the most impact on those rings? I'd answer Adam V for three of Brady's, though Tom was terrific in the third.

    Looking at the playoffs:

    A great qb is having a bad day if his rating falls under 90 (pro bowl threshold performance).

    Brady's career playoff rating is 89. Borderline great play.

    Joe? 95.6 Solidly great play.

    Ratings Brady/Joe across their playoff games

    00-49: 1/3
    50-59: 3/0
    60-69: 3/2
    70-79: 6/1
    ---------------
    80-89: 4/3
    90-99: 5/2

    100+: 12/12

    Broken down as a percentage of their games played.

    38% of the time Brady's play was sub par.
    26% of the time, Joe's play was sub par.

    27% of the time, Brady's play was good to great.
    22% of the time Joe's play was good to great.

    35% of the time Brady's play was exceptionally outstanding.
    52% of the time Joe's play was exceptionally outstanding.

    So with Brady you're more likely to get a sub par performance than an exceptional one overall.
    You stand a better than 50% chance to see the exceptional with Joe.

    And in SBs?

    Brady: 3 exceptional, 2 pro bowl level, 1 respectable, 1 okay
    Avg. 95.3
    High to low:

    2004: 110.2
    2003: 100.5
    2014: 101.1
    2016: 95.2
    2011: 91.1
    2001: 86.2
    2007: 82.5

    Montana: 4 exceptional games
    Avg: 122.5

    1989: 147.6
    1984: 127.2
    1988: 115.2
    1981: 100.0

    Brady's best SB performance only beats out Joe's weakest game.
    Brady's best game was early, in his third SB.
    Joe's best game was at the end, though every game he played was a great one.

    TD to INT
    Joe: 11-0
    Tom: 15-5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    So how is Montana not the best system qb of all time?
    Because Montana played in another uniform for two years. He won 11 games with KC. The first year he led KC to 11 wins and deep into the playoffs before he simply couldn't hold up, declining with each playoff game, from a pro bowl caliber piece of work against the Steelers, to a really good one against the Houston, then running out of gas against that 4 time SB Bills team with one of his worst (0 tds against 1 pick). His second year the decline continued, but he posted 9 wins and made the playoffs, where the Chiefs lost to Miami. In that last game he threw for over 300 yds and posted another 100+ rating.

    In other words, even with another system and markedly declining tools, he played exceptional ball.

    I've never seen Brady without the scheme and team his coach put around him. And when he went down, again, the next guy up won 11 games. And the next guy up wasn't a future HOFer.
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    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    Great teams win championships. Great players go to the Hall of Fame. In theory. There has been shenanigans often in multiple leagues.

    Trent Dilfer is undeated in the Super Bowl.

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    Over 4000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I've never seen Brady without the scheme and team his coach put around him.
    Yes, you have. He won a ring the one time that happened.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick M View Post
    Great teams win championships. Great players go to the Hall of Fame. In theory. There has been shenanigans often in multiple leagues.

    Trent Dilfer is undeated in the Super Bowl.
    And so's Phil Simms, whose championship game numbers are Montana-esque, but neither he nor Dilfer are in this discussion. Dilfer's a red herring.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    Yes, you have. He won a ring the one time that happened.
    I don't know what you're talking about. He played for the same coach and team his entire career. Look, if you want to feel differently about Brady it's your right. I've never rooted for either...well, I suppose I was intrigued their first SB, before the tarnishing, but I've never been a Pats fan and never rooted for an NFC team in the SB until Atlanta's failed attempt (because my son was pulling for them and they're neighbors of a sort). The fact is that Joe played when it was harder to play the position and he did it better in the biggest game than anyone else.
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