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Thread: NFL 2017

  1. #136
    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    Joe Mixon looked pretty good. He looked about as good as you can in a pre-season game. There is still one thing that I think holds them back with all that talent. The conductor. Maybe if he didn't look like a cat they would get over the hump.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    Do you believe that Gretsky is "the great one?"
    I don't follow the sport strongly enough to have an informed opinion.

    It's off- and on-topic. Like your frequently mentioning athletes in other sports implicitly suggesting the implied claim of a strong analogy is valid, between great players of other sports, and any correlation between them and hardware/rings.
    I'm pretty sure I just mentioned that in a sport where one individual can have an even greater impact as part of the offensive and defensive production of a team, the greatest winner in that sport's history isn't really in the conversation when it comes to the greatest of all time, even at his position.

    Graham's the GOAT. Graham is the only obvious choice, because Graham led his team to so many championship games, firstly, and that Graham won so many of them, more than anybody else.
    I'd say he's arguably the greatest of the old guard. But he also didn't have to go through a spate of playoff games to reach the title game for the most part of his run. That's a much shorter and easier season on a number of levels. One more reason to separate the old and new game.

    Calling Graham the GOAT is like calling the Beatles, or Elvis the GOAT. They are the GOATs because they were first. They discovered/invented the species, like Gretsky did. They were the firsts, to do any number of both strategic and tactical things, now taken for granted, for their ubiquity.
    That' makes them pioneers, not eternal GOATs.

    Otto Graham's season ratings were darn good to great. His 12 playoff games? An average of 67.4.

    His best was in his 7th playoff appearance, against the Rams, going for nearly 300 yds, 4 td to 1 int and a 122 rating.

    He was also awful in the Championship game three years later, going for all of 20 yards, no passing or rushing tds against 2 ints and a goose egg rating in the loss.

    In fact, Graham wasn't very good in most of them.

    Bad to worse (75 and under): 8 games (66%).
    Meh to very good (76 to 88): 2 (16.5%)
    Exceptional (90+): 2 (16.5%)

    Meaning you were more likely to get a poor performance than either a good or exceptional one, hardware notwithstanding.

    Brady, by comparison, was bad to worse in 9 of 34 games (26.5% of the time). Decent to good in 9 (26.5% of the time). Exceptional in 16 (47% of the time).

    Montana was bad to worse in 5 out of 23 (21.5%), decent to good in 4 (17%). Exceptional in 14 (60%).

    Or, you stand a much better statistical chance of getting an exceptional performance in the big game from Montana, even using the totality of his playoff performances instead of his impossibly great SB record.

    The question is, who's going to win the game?
    Wasn't my question. I asked for your 1-10. You don't have to, of course, but why wouldn't you? I've answered yours. Montana.

    Otherwise, supra. Montana. On any given playoff day he gives you much better odds of the exceptionally great and a win.
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  4. #138
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    That's an idea, listing each of the top 10 as ranked with their bad to great chance of presenting in playoffs.

    Bad to worse (75 and under) from least likely to stink it up to most likely

    1. Brees: 1%
    2. Rodgers: 12.5%
    3. Montana: 21.5 %
    4. Brady: 26.5%
    5. Favre/Young T
    7. Peyton: 33%
    8. Elway: 36%
    9. Marino: 44%
    10. Fouts: 100%* only one on the list with fewer than 10 playoff games.

    Now who gives us the best chance of an exceptional performance, best to worst with a minimum of 10 playoff games:

    Exceptional (90+):

    1. Rodgers: 75%
    2. Brees: 73%
    3. Montana: 60%
    4. Favre: 50%
    5. Brady: 47%
    6. Young: 43%
    7. Peyton/Elway 41%
    9. Marino: 33%
    10. Fouts: 0% Who put him in this grouping anyway??

    Not considered but better than Fouts (Stinker/Exceptional):

    Eli Manning: 33% - 42%
    Big Ben: 20% - 45%
    Wilson: 33% - 67%
    Flacco: 33% - 60%

    So if you go by SB, it's Montana.
    If you want the least likely to give you a stinker, it's Brees, then Rodgers and then Montana.
    If you want the most likely to give you a playoff gem it's Rodgers, Brees, then Montana.
    If you want really good to exceptional play, it's Brees, Rodgers, Montana.

    And Ben R and Wilson would be better bets than Marino and Fouts (who really doesn't belong on the list).

    If you take away the two years Peyton shouldn't have been playing he moves up to 5th place in least likely to present a stinker and 6th on the exceptional list.

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  5. #139
    Over 5000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    QB rating. Yards-after-catch YAC is in there, under yardage. The passer gets the ball to the receiver, who then can add yards from there, or not, but all the yards wind up in the QB rating regardless.

    Completion-percentage includes poorly thrown passes that receivers catch anyway, and well thrown passes that receivers nonetheless drop.

    Interceptions that resulted from tipped balls are in there, as well as when the passer threw it right to the defender but the defender dropped it.

    Of these, YAC must be pretty easy to separate from total passing yards, to see how much receivers with exceptional YACs influence their passers' rating.

    For the other matters, I don't know how it could be done without watching every pass thrown, and doing something like baseball's balls-and-strikes, but also sometimes passers and receivers simply get the play wrong, and when it's the receiver, that also goes against the passer's rating. I imagine that these things even out over time, but 1) maybe they don't, and 2) game-to-game, we all know these matters vary a lot, influencing wins and losses as well as QB ratings.
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  6. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    QB rating. Yards-after-catch YAC is in there, under yardage. The passer gets the ball to the receiver, who then can add yards from there, or not, but all the yards wind up in the QB rating regardless.Completion-percentage includes poorly thrown passes that receivers catch anyway, and well thrown passes that receivers nonetheless drop. Interceptions that resulted from tipped balls are in there, as well as when the passer threw it right to the defender but the defender dropped it. Of these, YAC must be pretty easy to separate from total passing yards, to see how much receivers with exceptional YACs influence their passers' rating.

    For the other matters, I don't know how it could be done without watching every pass thrown, and doing something like baseball's balls-and-strikes, but also sometimes passers and receivers simply get the play wrong, and when it's the receiver, that also goes against the passer's rating. I imagine that these things even out over time, but 1) maybe they don't, and 2) game-to-game, we all know these matters vary a lot, influencing wins and losses as well as QB ratings.
    The great thing about stats is that they are measured the same for everyone. And the qbs most people who've watched and really followed the NFL put in the best of discussion look exactly like that when you pour through those numbers.

    I've always thought Brees was underrated even with the level of recognition he does get. The numbers tend to bear that out. How great would he look on a consistently solid team with a real defense? Maybe the way the numbers suggest, the way he played in the one SB he had to play.
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  7. #141
    Over 5000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    The great thing about stats is that they are measured the same for everyone.
    They are! And I've pointed out a couple leaks in QB rating as a statistic. I believe that ERA for instance, is a good way to measure a pitcher's overall performance in baseball, but I don't believe that QB rating is as good a metric as ERA is, in baseball.

    Let's take a play. The passer to this point in the game, which is in the late fourth quarter, with the passer's team down three scores, needs to convert a third down. They need two yards. 'Passer throws to receiver for three yards, and the receiver runs out of bounds. Here are the passing stats after this crucial first down.

    26 Attempts
    16 Completions
    260 Passing Yards
    2 TDs
    0 INTs

    For a rating of 120.6 truncated.

    If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable! It's because QB rating doesn't figure in third- or fourth-down conversions at all, never mind late in the fourth quarter, down three scores.

    Also, now consider this. Next play, from the ten, passer throws right to a defender in the endzone, but the defender tips the ball up in the air, and an unintended receiver catches the ball for the TD. Rating now goes up, from 120.6 up to 133.2 truncated.

    The passer threw what in baseball would be graded two ways---as a ball first-and-foremost, and as a WP (wild pitch) or maybe HBP (hit batsman, or hit by pitcher). It is certainly not something that will improve the pitcher's ERA, as it shouldn't, at best it would not hurt it, if there is nobody on base, and it's not strike three or ball four. But in the QB rating, such a pass is greatly rewarded.

    There are tons of other easily imagined scenarios which show the inherent silliness of the QB rating. I love statistics. QB rating is a very limited metric, not only because there are things it just doesn't measure, but also because what it does measure promotes illogical behavior in quarterbacks who are trying to improve their own rating, even if, and maybe especially since, QBs are only doing it subliminally, because they keep track of their rating, but they don't consciously understand how a QB could increase their rating, while simultaneously decreasing the chances their team wins games.
    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    And the qbs most people who've watched and really followed the NFL put in the best of discussion look exactly like that when you pour through those numbers.
    It's impossible to not credit Graham. Montana's better than Brady in SBs. Manning until his last two years was better than Brady in the tournaments. And Brady's Pats have qualified for the tournament 14 of the 15 tries he's made, only missing, the season right after his first ring, 2002. That's right, he was playing quarterback for NE in 2002.

    Brady is always in the discussion. He was in, even back when he lost to NYG to go 18-1 for that season. That was ten years ago, and he's been in the discussion for 10 years with most people who've watched and really followed the NFL.

    'Just sayin.'
    Quote Originally Posted by Town Heretic View Post
    I've always thought Brees was underrated even with the level of recognition he does get. The numbers tend to bear that out. How great would he look on a consistently solid team with a real defense? Maybe the way the numbers suggest, the way he played in the one SB he had to play.
    If a QB goes from 400 attempts for 2400 yards, to 400 attempts for 3600 yards (a 50% improvement), they can afford to throw 12 interceptions before their QB rating would drop lower than when they threw for only 2400 yards. 12 interceptions! That's how important YPA is, in the QB rating metric. I reject that that makes any sense. The passer should be penalized more than that, for throwing that many picks. Unless maybe, this makes up for getting an interception, after hitting the receiver in stride, and in the hands: and in the bread basket, but the receiver instead tips it right into the hands of a defender. It would have added a completion, yards, and a TD, but instead, it adds only an attempt, plus an interception, and the QB rating drops, but not as much as it should, if the interception is legitimately the fault of the passer. Maybe it all works out in the long-term, but some of these snapshots make the QB rating statistic, ridiculous.
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  8. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    They are! And I've pointed out a couple leaks in QB rating as a statistic. I believe that ERA for instance, is a good way to measure a pitcher's overall performance in baseball, but I don't believe that QB rating is as good a metric as ERA is, in baseball.
    Seems to be, given the guys almost anyone would put in the top shelf end up there by the metric. And while I take your point that no system is perfect, one that ends up with that batting average is pretty darn good. I mean, you can pick at anything, add dimensions, from quality of line play to defense and how long that gives a guy the ball, how much or how little pressure is on him, etc.

    What I find is similar to what you see in the playoff structure. You get some variation but the teams that belong there tend to get there and the cream rises. Sometimes a team just gets hot. Sometimes a good team gets hot too late. And some qbs never get enough chances in the post season to evaluate just how good they might be with enough help (Rivers is a good example).

    All that said, it goes back to what we find when we use the metric and what we find lines up with informed expectation.

    If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable! It's because QB rating doesn't figure in third- or fourth-down conversions at all, never mind late in the fourth quarter, down three scores.
    A batter isn't rated by how well he hits with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth either. But if we know how well he hits in the series we understand that will translate. And it does. Same for the rating. It's not all inclusive, but it hits the broad numbers that show up when it matters and the results speak to and for it.

    There are tons of other easily imagined scenarios which show the inherent silliness of the QB rating.
    No, there are all sorts of additions you can make, but they aren't needed. Most of them are marginal in nature, statistically speaking. What matters most is how accurate the qb is and how prone he is to making mistakes. How well he moves the ball. That demonstrably translates into wins, small and big. And comparing those gives us a real metric to compare qbs.

    So sure, it won't show you the greatest thing about Peyton, his reading of defenses. And it won't necessarily show you Marino's release or the time scramblers buy with their legs to set up defensive breakdowns and easier passing lanes, but all those differences wash out in the end and it's still an effective means to rate the efficacy of play at the position. It simply isn't perfect. What system is?

    I love statistics. QB rating is a very limited metric, not only because there are things it just doesn't measure, but also because what it does measure promotes illogical behavior in quarterbacks who are trying to improve their own rating, even if, and maybe especially since, QBs are only doing it subliminally, because they keep track of their rating, but they don't consciously understand how a QB could increase their rating, while simultaneously decreasing the chances their team wins games.
    The great ones don't play to the stats. They rarely chase a record, by way of.

    It's impossible to not credit Graham.
    I credited him. I said he could be considered the best of the old guard, though I'd take Unitas in a play off run. Graham was a great regular season qb whose game didn't translate as readily to the playoffs, but he won anyway.

    Montana's better than Brady in SBs.
    He's better than anyone in that game. And he's better than anyone short of Rodgers and Brees in the playoffs in general. That's part of what makes him the GOAT. I'm not saying a qb will win hardware by himself, though he can greatly increase the chances. But what I will say is that you can look at what he contributes when it matters most and that's the difference maker when you're talking about a group that closely bunched at the top, if for different reasons.

    Manning until his last two years was better than Brady in the tournaments.
    He was better across the board until his body broke. What's amazing about it is how much he did after the neck injury. I never will understand how he compensated for what he lost. It was amazing he held it together that long.

    And Brady's Pats have qualified for the tournament 14 of the 15 tries he's made, only missing, the season right after his first ring, 2002. That's right, he was playing quarterback for NE in 2002.
    A great run. One of the most solid teams and solidly coached teams, consistently.

    Brady is always in the discussion. He was in, even back when he lost to NYG to go 18-1 for that season. That was ten years ago, and he's been in the discussion for 10 years with most people who've watched and really followed the NFL.
    Anyone that good for that long has to be. It would be insulting to not put him into the mix. Same with Jabbar in the NBA, though neither are the GOAT. They've earned the mention, the consideration at least.

    If a QB goes from 400 attempts for 2400 yards, to 400 attempts for 3600 yards (a 50% improvement), they can afford to throw 12 interceptions before their QB rating would drop lower than when they threw for only 2400 yards. 12 interceptions! That's how important YPA is, in the QB rating metric.
    There's another rating metric. I think ESPN cobbled it...a different approach, but you still end up with the same guys at the top. And yeah, I think it all works out in the end. A guy who throws ill considered picks will throw enough of them. A guy who is let down by his wrs will have new wrs and over time that will show up too.
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    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    The NFL QB rating isn't called "QB rating". It is called "efficiency rating", and it is an excellent tool to determine who gets the most out of their passing game. As it should be. QBs who need 45 pass attempts to get big numbers are not rewarded. As stated, it is per attempt. Yards, completions, interceptions, and touchdowns.

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  11. #144
    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nihilo View Post
    If you think that because of that crucial third-down conversion, that the passer rating rose a little bit, you'd be wrong; the rating went down, due to the key third-down conversion being a completion of only three yards. The rating dropped a point! from 121.6 rounded, down to 120.6. Unbelievable!
    This is kind of meaningless, as a QB who converts on 3rd down, yet missed 20 of 28 passes, saw his rating go up.
    Jesus saves completely. http://www.climatedepot.com/ http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/

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    For there are many insubordinate, both idle talkers and deceivers, especially those of the circumcision, whose mouths must be stopped

    Ephesians 5

    11 And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them. 12 For it is shameful even to speak of those things which are done by them in secret

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  13. #145
    Over 5000 post club Nihilo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick M View Post
    This is kind of meaningless, as a QB who converts on 3rd down, yet missed 20 of 28 passes, saw his rating go up.
    30% completion percentage and beneath, are counted the same in the QB/efficiency rating; you're correct. So the QB wouldn't get any bump from the 3rd down completion itself, and the three yards wouldn't be enough to move the needle on yards-per-attempt either.
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    Black Rifles Matter Nick M's Avatar
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    Completion percentage is a huge piece of efficiency rating. Funny how the QB at the top right now and you are promoting has that high rating you are putting down. Think about it. You are smarter than that.
    Jesus saves completely. http://www.climatedepot.com/ http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/

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    11 And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them. 12 For it is shameful even to speak of those things which are done by them in secret

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    Think before week 1 of the NFL 2017 season it could be either Bears QB Mitch Tribusky or Texans QB DeShaun Watson to start as a rookie.
    Ready for October!

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    Did anyone catch the preseason game between the Cowboys and the Colts? The Boys' first team offense didn't miss Zeke much!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry Shugart View Post
    Did anyone catch the preseason game between the Cowboys and the Colts? The Boys' first team offense didn't miss Zeke much!
    Did the Colts draft a defense during the off season? Weren't they like 8th from the bottom in pts allowed last year? So you might want to wait and see when they play someone who can stop someone.
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    Did you see the game, especially the first team offense of the Cowboys?

    The passing game has really improved this year because Dez is healthy and Dak has had the opportunity to have a training camp with him.

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